Articles by Dr. Joe Webb
Dr. Joe Webb is one of the graphic arts industry's best-known consultants, forecasters, and commentators. He is the director of WhatTheyThink's Economics and Research Center.
Displaying 1-99 of 1318 articles
Big Printers' Writedowns and Interest Payments Are a Big Drag on Printing Industry Profits
Published June 22, 2018
Writedowns in the first quarter of 2018 for commercial printers with $25 million or more in assets were $157 million, or 1.9% of sales. The assets may be written down, but the borrowing that was created to finance them remains. Interest expense was 4.8% of sales. For the quarter, losses were -1.47% of sales. That rate of loss made average profits before taxes for the industry a mediocre 3% of sales—which means that printers with less than $25 million in assets must have done well.
The Final Column: The Security Guard Will Take Your Badge and Escort You to the Lobby
Published June 18, 2018
Back in 2002, Dr. Joe agreed to do a regular column for WhatTheyThink for “only one year and no more”...for 15 years. This farewell column explains how it started, behind-the-scenes intrigue, the problems, and why it turned out the way it did. And then…he explains the exciting adventures ahead.
Full-Time Employment, Sets New Record, Up +904,000, But Does It Really Feel that Good?
Published June 8, 2018
The May employment report was regarded as good, but when you dig past the top-level numbers, it was better than it looked. However, while the 3.8% unemployment rate looks good on the surface, it really can’t be compared to when it was last attained nearly 20 years ago. So many workers left the workforce that this figure implies a tighter labor than it really is. We will really know we have a strong economy when the active labor force starts increasing.
Good News Could Be a Full-Time Job, but for Most Economists It’s Only Part-Time
Published May 21, 2018
Some people say that the news is always bad, and they wish someone would report good news now and then. There is good news but no one seems to report it. You’d think that would be a full time job for someone. The economy has set a record for full time employment, and all we hear are crickets. The economy has been doing better lately in some key measures of employment, but the Fed is scaring markets by preparing to raise rates. TINA, meet TAMA, the result of the Fed’s actions; don’t worry, we’ll explain it. The statisticians at the Commerce Department revised printing shipments data. Revising data seems to be a full time job in the Beltway. Dr. Joe clarifies it all for one nearly last time.
Consumer Durable Goods Orders Moving at Almost 2X GDP Rate
Published May 18, 2018
Durable goods orders for consumers (less transportation) are growing at a rate almost two times faster than Real GDP. This data series remains -14% below where it was at the start of the recession in December 2017, and is a critical one to monitor for indications of an improved economy.
Q1-2018 Rises +2.3%, Slower Rate than Q4-2017
Published May 11, 2018
The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advance report estimated that Q1-2018 real gross domestic product was up at an annual rate of +2.3%, which was slower than the +2.9% for Q4-2017. Because companies and individuals, especially corporations, shifted expenses into 2017 and delayed revenue recognition to 2018 to take advantage of the rates in the new tax law, many key economic data series—such as this one—will be subject to larger than usual revision.
Lost in the Economy: Patience
Published April 16, 2018
“Staying the course” does not refer to golf, but might be an answer to “Aren’t we there yet?” When all of your economic models are based on something old, and not something new, that could make you blue, and confused. Since we’re now talking about weddings of the business kind, the Amazon-USPS wedding has gotten a lot of press lately. Don’t they take such a pretty picture together? Well, maybe not. The relationship solves one problem and creates another. No, not the in-laws again… what do they want now?
Federal Reserve Updates Industrial Production Data Series
Published April 13, 2018
The Federal Reserve revised 2015–2017 industrial production down from its original reports, meaning that industrial production peaked in 2014 and then slowed. The initial data made things seem better than what consumers and employees were actually experiencing.
Q4-2017 GDP Revisions Stronger than Earlier Reports
Published April 6, 2018
Q4-2017 GDP estimates were raised to +2.9% from the original estimate of +2.5%. (But beware inventories.) At the same time, shenanigans resulting from the latest tax bill are blurring statistics visibility, especially where corporate profits are concerned.
Dr. Joe: It’s Time to Stop Cooperating with Postal Reform
Published March 30, 2018
Forget postal reform; Dr. Joe Webb calls for privatization of the postal system.
Conflicts, Inconsistencies, and Misrepresentations: Situation is Normal
Published March 19, 2018
Trade tariff talk has confused the markets, but so have the recent economic data. Employment data look great, retail sales look bad, consumer confidence surges in the lowest third of households by income. Explain that, Dr. Joe! He does, and offers insight into the selection of Larry Kudlow as the President’s economic advisor. There may be no free lunches, but Dr. Joe has some free podcasts and a webinar. Get them now before someone proposes a tariff on electrons.
US Commercial Printing Capital Expenditures
Published March 9, 2018
The capital expenditures of commercial printers fell in 2016, but the investment in less expensive used equipment may have been a major factor.
Canada’s Commercial Printing Shipments 1992-2017
Published March 2, 2018
Canada’s printing industry has been holding steady compared to the US, despite being subject to the same competition from digital media
Stocks Gyrate, CapEx Shuffles, and Dr. Joe’s a Video Star
Published February 19, 2018
The countdown for Dr. Joe’s departure continues with four months to go. Please, let’s hope his brief video stardom does not go to his head. That head of his may not fit through the doorway when it’s time for his exit. The stock market is up…and then it’s down…blame it on visibility. Small business optimism is booming, and maybe the economy will get the hint. The industry’s capital investment is changing, with the appetite for used equipment increasing. But wait…there’s more to this month’s Dr. Joe submission.
Consumer Durable Goods Still Struggle to Reach Recession Levels
Published February 16, 2018
CPI-adjusted consumer durable goods manufacturing remains well below its pre-recession level—one of the reasons that GDP has been so lackluster.
Q4-2018 GDP +2.6%, But +3.2% Excluding Inventory Effects
Published February 9, 2018
The first report of fourth quarter GDP was a disappointing +2.6%. Sources such as the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow and the New York Fed’s Nowcast were for a stronger reading. Inventories are a major factor in the volatility of GDP data, and excluding that data, the economy neared those estimates, producing a much better +3.2% rate compared to Q3.
2017 NAICS 323 US Commercial Printing Industry Shipments
Published February 2, 2018
The US Commerce Department has released data for November 2017, and this is the first look at the full year by making an estimate for December. Based on shipment and employment trends, it appears that 2017 came in at $76.3 in current dollars. That's a -6.4% decrease in current dollars compared to 2016, and a -8.4% decrease on an inflation-adjusted basis. The chart includes selected prior years starting at 1995. December data will be released at the beginning of February, and will be revised in March. In May, the Commerce Department will revise the last three years of data, plus minor revisions to the years prior to that.
Latest Inflation Adjustment Multipliers
Published January 29, 2018
Inflation distorts our interpretation of history and clouds business decisions. All dollars may look alike, but what a dollar bought in 1950 is a lot different than a dollar in 2017. Unfortunately, commercial printing prices have not kept up with inflation, but the costs of running a printing business usually have. This means that it's harder to keep earnings and payrolls up to this level. If past dollars had greater value, this chart can be used to adjust past financial statements to bring those data to current value. This is especially important in budgeting processes where looking for trends in prior years is one way of assessing performance and goals.
Economy Growing, Big and Small; Who Owns Our Businesses?
Published January 22, 2018
Dr. Joe has a special message: he was wrong 15 years ago, and it worked out fine. The economy is showing improvement, and some reluctant data series are starting to be break their recession levels. Government shutdown? That won't stop them from collecting taxes! Many of the economic indicators show a strong Q4-2017 GDP report is in the offing - but the shutdown may prevent that data release. Dr. Joe warns of a data issues ahead - if small business booms, it may not be recognized right away. But there's one difference in big and small that's showing up right now in printing profits data.
Being an Entrepreneur in the Graphic Communications Industry
Published January 8, 2018
Dr. Joe Webb speaks to Dr. Erica Walker, Assistant Professor in the Department of Graphic Communications at Clemson, who talks about teaching a course on entrepreneurship.
Dr. Joe: A Potpourri of Workers, Taxes, Profits, Rates, Digits, and More
Published December 18, 2017
The fifteenth year of Dr. Joe at WhatTheyThink comes to a close, and he’s got a lot of topics (and some charts, of course) to get off his mind. Tax reform, recruitment, hours online, profits, consolidation...you name it, it’s probably mentioned in this year’s final column. Oh, and we forgot Bitcoin...that’s here too.
Engaging and Hiring Younger Workers Into the Printing Industry
Published December 13, 2017
Dr. Joe Webb talks to Gina Danner, CEO of NextPage, about a hiring story that demonstrates key issues with younger workers in our industry. They discuss key issues with how NextPage does outreach for hiring.
Tax Reform May be Near; Only Dr. Doom Would Celebrate a Recession Anniversary
Published December 4, 2017
What’s more important than tax reform? A tenth anniversary! It’s been ten years since the recession started. What does one get as a gift? We’re told it’s tin or aluminum. Does that mean someone’s giving all of us litho plates? Tax reform is a much better gift for the celebration. The reform is flawed, but better than nothing. There are some signs that the economy is improving for real, and Dr. Joe has his unique twist to offer.
The Truth is Not Always in the Headline
Published November 20, 2017
Look at the shiny object, and please don’t peek behind the curtain. It’s a data game that’s played by many, and it starts with a good headline, and sometimes includes a great chart. A rising stock market without increasing revenue? Declining e-book sales that conveniently ignore niches that are contrary? And then there’s one for the record: the LP record. A pretty chart makes that story convincing, but only if you forget history. Don’t fall into that vinyl LP trap: there’s a hole in the middle of it.
Fed Change Means Fed Same, Shipments Tumble, Economy Muddles, and Can I Interest You in the Best Leftovers Ever?
Published November 6, 2017
We have a new chair at the Fed who is likely to stay the course, no matter how damaging that is. This month’s shiny object is the unemployment rate; don’t look at how it got there. A kerfuffle and a scuffle, and it all happened because of used equipment, which means the once mighty aren’t any more. And printing shipments… can we talk about something else?
The Fed, Economic Data, and Other Topics
Published October 23, 2017
It’s an interesting time at the Fed, especially when Dr. Yellen’s turn is expiring and one of Dr. Joe’s favorite candidates is in the running. There’s a lot of claims about jobless claims, and the claims are not really what they’re claiming. Labels and wrappers? That’s a tiny niche market in the big printing industry. Now 1 in 8 commercial printing dollars are in that specialty.
High Winds Uproot Data
Published October 9, 2017
The hurricanes affected not just the lives of the people who experienced them, but also affected basic economic data. And yes, you can be employed and unemployed at the same exact time, in the same exact government department. The data seem strange, but the long term trends stayed the same. That’s why we call them long term trends. And August’s printing shipments? Don’t ask! There’s a video from a distinguished leader that’s worth seeing… and worth pondering… about print as a medium and you as a business.
E-commerce is the only reason retail is growing
Published October 5, 2017
Inflation and population changes often distort the analysis of economic trends. This chart shows the changing nature of retail sales on a per capita (per person) and inflation-adjusted (using the Consumer Price Index) basis by the percentage change compared to the same period of the prior year.
Are Your Strategic Assumptions Really True?
Published September 25, 2017
There are many “common wisdom” assumptions in the industry. One that refuses to die relates to print volume being related to GDP. The data are very clear; it’s technology that plays a bigger factor than macroeconomics. The other is that the effects of digital media will come to an end or will slow down. That one is obviously false; Moore’s Law may not be what it used to be, but we see how technology gets faster, cheaper, and more convenient every day. Bad assumptions lead to bad strategy, lead to dismissing opportunities that should be pursued, and reduce the urgency to act. Don’t let that happen to you or your business.
The Old Guard and the Economy Limps into Print 17; a Different Industry Takes Charge
Published September 12, 2017
Who didn’t envy or aspire to become a big, high profile printing business? The print business has been turned on its head, where small and medium businesses are outperforming their much bigger counterparts. The latter are still dealing with the relevance of legacy processes and assets while trying to bring new focus to rich digital media interactions to static formats like print. There’s no doubt: The Third Wave is being released at a pivotal moment. While the industry is churning, there are warning signs in the economy and for content creation markets. Dr. Joe is getting that 2008 feeling: he doesn’t like it.
Dr. Joe's Key Recovery Indicators
Published September 11, 2017
The recovery indicators (when we started these we thought they’d be around for about a year or so) had four of its six factors turn negative, with one of those falling back to its recession level of December 2007. Yes, that’s when the recession started. That long ago.
Catching the “Third Wave”
Published September 5, 2017
We’re in another wave of media change, the first with the consumer Internet, the second with social media, tablets, and smartphones, and now a third with an infrastructure built for heavy volume and high speed. Through two waves, there were printers who got out ahead with savvy judgment that went against the common wisdom and blazed their own paths of market engagement and abandoned industry practice. This third wave is already more intense, as printing shipments in the last six months are down more than -7%. Success in this third wave demands a new philosophy, a different understanding of capital, and a new assessment of risk. Dr. Joe offers The Third Wave, a new book, that addresses these issues.
Dr. Joe Recommends: Robots and Unemployment, Edge computing
Published August 17, 2017
Dr. Joe recommended reading.
Updated Commercial Printing and New GDP Data
Published August 17, 2017
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the Q2-2017 GDP data and revisions to historical data beginning with 2014. Back in mid-May, the Commerce Department updated historical commercial printing shipments (NAICS 323) as part of its manufacturing shipments revisions. This week’s chart shows an updated view of both data series in current dollars (sometimes called “nominal;” both terms mean that data are not adjusted for inflation). The red line is year-to-year growth rate in GDP, and the blue line is year-to-year change in quarterly shipments. Since around 1997 printing shipments have not met GDP growth except for a moment between 2010 and 2015. The most recent printing shipments trend at the right of the chart are remarkable for their direction. A discussion of the GDP revisions and the current status of printing shipments can be found in the column of August 7.
GDP Revisions Offer New Perspective; Printing Shipments Remain Troubling
Published August 7, 2017
Revisions to GDP last month showed a slower economy in 2016 and a better one in 2014 and 2015. That’s fine – but we have to make decisions today, not three years ago. Do changes to economic data really matter? They do, but perhaps not the way you think. The stock market is up and setting records, so the economy must be great! A different metric says otherwise. Economic data: it’s a strange place. And commercial printing shipments? Pass the ibuprofen, please.
Print is a Baby, Not a Geezer: The Newness Crisis
Published July 24, 2017
What’s new? You should say “print,” because so many of the media decision-makers have not had noteworthy experiences with the medium. Selling what you know can actually be dangerous, because you need to know what your client and prospect know, first. Only then can you have a chance at relevance. Print is actually a baby, and reference to its glorious past diminishes the many new offerings and tactics that can involve printed materials and specialties in meeting the challenges and objectives of communicators.
They Say It’s Great, But That’s Up for Debate
Published July 10, 2017
The economy is sluggish on the positive side, and it would be grand if commercial printing would be the same. Recent printing shipments trends are a concern as the industry continues to reshape itself in response to a dynamic communications marketplace that is seems to re-create itself daily. One Midwest printer lands a big contract for signage… but of the kind that a third wave of media change mandates.
Did You Know Interest Rates Have Been Falling?
Published July 6, 2017
The Fed has been so reticent about raising rates, and in the process, rates for the 10-year US Treasury actually were negative in February. No, that’s not market rates, that’s the 10-year rate less the year-to-year Consumer Price Index. Since that time, the rate calculated in this manner has moved up 80 basis points. The rate peaked in September 2015 and it’s been down since then. The Fed is having problems making the decision to raise rates, and often announced more rates in a future period but increasing rates at a slower pace. They have a target inflation rate of 2% (which means you lose about 25% of your savings over 10 years on a compounded basis). If you believe that the inflation rate is calculated in a manner that makes it seem lower than it actually is, then the Fed’s desire to see inflation at the 2% rate before they start pushing interest rates higher may be be difficult to reach or sustain. That means long term rates will stay artificially low (on purpose) for a longer period of time than most experts expect.
Dr. Joe Recommends: Technology Through 2050
Published July 6, 2017
The Economist has published a fascinating book, Megatech, edited by Daniel Franklin. Mr. Franklin gathered some of the world’s leading technologists and thinkers to describe the technologies in the labs and the trends that are already in play as they lead to 2050.
Preference and Data and Prices, Oh My!
Published June 26, 2017
Prices tell us a lot about how media is changing and what’s ahead. It’s funny – the categories that are growing the most are the ones where prices are dropping. That’s strange. But media preference surveys can be misleading because they can assure media producers of the love of the marketplace, and divert their strategic attention to competitors impinging on that affection. What does Mary Meeker know? A trade association executive says she’s biased. That’s okay. Dr. Joe has different data.
Friend to the Industry Kip Smythe Has Died
Published June 12, 2017
Sadly, the industry lost one of its loyal behind-the-scenes advocates, Kip Smythe. His coordination of efforts involving industry research, statistics, standards, trade, and others, was appreciated by everyone who worked alongside him. Dr. Joe has a special remembrance.
Recovery Indicators Move to Half Here, Half There; Shipments and Profits Fall, Concerns Raised
Published June 12, 2017
US commercial printing shipments and profits are in a pattern that suggests another re-set of media communications strategy is underway. The national employment data looked great on the outside, but were disturbing on the inside… again. The latest publishing revenues suggest that content’s kingship status is not what everyone thinks it is.
Dr. Joe Recommends: A Symphony of Content, A Perspective of Context
Published May 25, 2017
The Content Marketing Institute and Ion Interactive released their report about “The Symphony of Connected Interactive Content.” It has some very good insights into the use of media at each stage of the sales process.
Inflation-adjusted Shipments per Employee
Published May 25, 2017
The Commerce Department’s revisions to industry shipments show a much different picture of a key metric for the industry, sales per employee. The chart was created using 12-month moving totals of inflation-adjusted shipments and the 12 month moving average of total industry employment. The latest reading through March 2017 is $182.65 per employee, a meager +1.5% higher than it was at the end of 1992. It fell from a peak of $195.51 which was just before the burst of the housing bubble, the rise of social media platforms, tablets, and smartphones. The fall in this calculation has some interesting characteristics. Historically, large printing businesses focused on magazines, catalogs, and newspaper inserts, had sales per employee that were significantly higher than the industry averages, anywhere from 30% to 50% higher.
Commerce Department Revisions Send 2015 and 2016 Shipments Down More than -4%
Published May 21, 2017
We love numbers, especially when they go in a direction we like. Accuracy of the information we use in decision-making should not be a matter of liking numbers, the numbers are what the numbers are. What happens when one set of numbers you relied on are revised on the basis of new and better information and describe a different scenario than before? Dr. Joe helps sort it out… we think.
Births and Deaths of Commercial Printing Establishments, 2010 to 2014
Published May 11, 2017
The Commerce Department tracks the number of business establishments by industry, and among he more interesting reports is the calculation of new and closed businesses. The data take a while to be released, and these new data about 2014 were recently made available. There’s a word of caution here. If someone was a corporation and decides to become a partnership or a proprietorship, that counts as one business closed and one business opened. And then there’s “poor man’s mergers” where two business owners decide to close their two businesses and open one new one. Same people, same equipment, no real change except to the tax authorities and government statisticians. The most important number is the net change of births less deaths. In the worst of the recession, the net number was 6% of establishments. For 2014, that had fallen to a little more than 2%.
Media is Constantly Changing, and It’s Not Always Clear How
Published May 11, 2017
Everyone knows that communications is a very dynamic marketplace, and even newer concepts like “content management” are not exempt from the forces of creative destruction.
Economy, Employment, Print, and Management Decisions
Published May 8, 2017
The economy is showing signs, but no one can figure out what kind of signs they are. GDP is down, employment is up. Apple confounds the analysts with a financial report worthy of corporate envy, but the analysts were not happy, and seem to blame Apple for the analysts bad guesses! And then there’s printing shipments: let’s change the subject… it seems many printers are doing just that by changing the process. Do policies in your company insulate you from the detection of market changes and opportunities? It’s not always denial, it’s procedure. That’s not a good thing.
Printing Industry Lags Other Manufacturers in Defined Management Processes
Published April 27, 2017
In what is not a surprise to many, the job shop operational structure of many printing businesses put the industry near the bottom of all manufacturing industries in terms of its management processes.
Dr. Joe Recommends: Consumer Trends and the Right Perspective about Economic Data
Published April 27, 2017
Consumers drive everything, and Crimson Hexagon’s new report derived from the monitoring of social media conversations provides insights into technology, health and fitness, transportation, and entertainment.
Importance of Hard Data: How Soft Data Can Mislead Decision-Makers
Published April 24, 2017
Every generation has a different perception of what the world is like. That difference may be appearing in surveys of consumer confidence and similar measures that businesspeople and economists have relied on. Hard data can be so cold, and those surveys added context and perspective with a view toward the future that historical data could not. Now it seems that “soft data” is softer than thought and may be misleading decision-makers about the marketplace.
The Fed’s Balance Sheet and the S&P 500
Published April 13, 2017
The financial markets were rattled a little bit by the recent minutes of the Fed meeting where they discussed the unwinding of their interventions and the ballooning of their balance sheet. The data are reflected in the St. Louis Fed Adjusted Monetary Base. The chart shows how the run-up in the S&P 500 stock index relates to the Fed’s quantitative easings
Dr. Joe Recommends: Restructuring of the Consumer Retail Market, Print Campaigns into Google Analytics
Published April 13, 2017
Dr. Joe Recommends: The Restructuring of the Consumer Retail Market. Eddy Hagen’s Blogpost about How to Get Print Campaigns into Google Analytics
Something’s Happening and It Just Doesn’t Feel Right
Published April 10, 2017
Friday’s unemployment report of 4.5% showed a thriving, healthy labor market in an economy bursting with growth. Not so fast… the cross-currents of the economy are quite different depending where you are, especially in the suffering retail markets. Media technology changes are letting communicators switch from gas guzzlers to more finely tuned approaches that squeeze budgets but offer similar results. There are print businesses thriving in this chaos, and Dr. Joe explains why even they have to remain vigilant and proactive.
US Commercial Printing Shipments on a Per Capita Basis
Published March 30, 2017
Yes, that sounds boring, but the data have been made interesting by including details about the last forty years or so of industry history and technological change. We added some statistical forecasts from our models that take the data out to 2025. When we started this chart almost ten years ago, those outlying years were near zero. They’re not any more (whew!). The data are inflation adjusted and based on the population data and forecasts of the US Census Bureau. It’s interesting how there are periods of relative stability, a change, followed by another period of stability. Technological change has been a much bigger factor affecting consumption than general economic conditions.
Dr. Joe Recommends: Digital Advertising Contracts Traded on NASDAQ?
Published March 30, 2017
Yes, that headline is correct as explained in a recent article. It’s the New York Interactive Advertising Exchange. Its founders were interviewed recently and explained the business.
Profits and Capex and Bears, Oh My!
Published March 26, 2017
Industry profits for 2016 were higher than 2015, but big printers were not riding high, they were writing down. Big used to mean big, but now small and medium are the rage as the changing nature of print demand makes the theme of short-run specialties for long-term profitability a big idea. And then there’s capital investment that makes all that possible. Its rebound continues in a manner that reflects a different industry. Is the post-election business enthusiasm a bubble about to burst? Dr. Joe explains.
Ad Agency and Publisher Revenues
Published March 23, 2017
Advertising agency revenues are having a slow rebound from their pullback in 2015. Publisher revenues are still having problems as ad pages and circulation are contracting. Clearly, agencies are finding other areas to garner revenues, especially in managing digital initiatives. Mobile communications are where their latest opportunities are, especially with website redesigns, creating the look and feel of content marketing for their clients, and assisting clients as they sort through the analytics that marketing automation offers.
Pew Surveys
Published March 23, 2017
It seems pretty clear that the last half of 2016 had a surge in activity for mobile communications.
Economy Sending Conflicting Messages? Or Is It?
Published March 13, 2017
“Just because you can, doesn’t mean you should” is the way the saying goes, and claiming some credit for a good job report on Friday was probably not wise. That old political rule of claiming credit for what happens on your watch though not caused by you has the underside of getting the blame for what you did not do. An important GDP forecast shows a very weak Q1, and the content creation businesses of advertising and design had declines in employment. Perhaps some weak economic conditions are what’s needed to get the Beltway’s priorities into the right order.
Is Sales Dying?
Published February 27, 2017
Dr. Joe wonders what’s happening to sales? The number of sales people in the economy is declining, and they’ve been essentially replaced by computers and server farms. All those sales call reports have been replaced by analytics. All that T&A expense became electrons. Entrepreneurship is critical to a growing economy, but having the right context to the statistics helps put it in perspective. And then there’s trade. Can we change the subject? Some economists are finally writing with clarity about the topic.
Consumer Inflation for 2016 at +2.5%, Giving Fed Reason to Increase Rates
Published February 23, 2017
Consumer inflation for 2016 was increasing, with December’s reading +2.5% higher than 2015. December’s rate alone was at a +6.6% annualized rate. The chart shows the monthly comparisons as the blue line and the year-to-year comparisons as the heavier red line.
The Latest 2017 Index of Economic Freedom
Published February 23, 2017
The Heritage Foundation has released the 2017 Index of Economic Freedom, one of my favorite resources. There are lots of data about international economies from the World Bank, the IMF, and others, but this is different, and is a great addition to that library. It includes insights into the regulatory environments of the economies, as well as the activities of black markets and corruption. The report is free, with a vastly improved interactive website, and downloads of the entire book or individual chapters. The list of country rankings is available on a page of its own. The top five are Hong Kong, Singapore, New Zealand, Switzerland, and Australia. Canada came in seventh, and the US fell out of the top fifteen for the first time, now ranked seventeenth.
Even the Digital Media Markets are Changing in The Third Wave
Published February 13, 2017
Sometimes naysayers get it wrong, and Dr. Joe thinks that some of the digital media experts are complaining too much about digital media growth slowing down to “only” 4x GDP. He thinks what they’re seeing are the benefits of marketing automation and a deeper understanding of analytics and ROI that mean dollars are spent more wisely. What does that mean for print? Time to take a new role in a third wave of media change. Are you ready?
Employment Stalls; Printing Shipments Fall Sharply in December
Published February 6, 2017
The national employment data may have had a headline of +227,000 payroll jobs, but the household survey did not indicate the same. Every year, the report released in February includes revisions to the prior year. The press release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics said that employment was “little changed.”
4Q-2016 GDP Slows to +1.9%, +0.9% Less Inventory Build-Up
Published January 30, 2017
The fourth quarter of 2016 ended quiently, with a growth rate of +1.9% compared to the third quarter. That brought 2016 to an overall growth rate of +1.6%.
Everyone loves Uber. But can the company survive?
Published January 26, 2017
Everyone loves Uber. But can the company survive? It's burning cash and piling up losses at an incredible rate, expected to be -$3 billion this year.
Real GDP for Six Presidential Administrations
Published January 26, 2017
A new administration is in Washington, so we created a chart that looks back at general economic conditions of the prior six administrations.
Economic Data Close the Books and Open a New One
Published January 23, 2017
The torch passes from one administration to another. How should the new administration be judged for its economics? The economy has a lot of ground to make up and population demographics make its urgency all the greater. The louder one complains on the campaign trail, the more responsible you have to be. What's the real story behind the complaints about trade fairness? It may not be about trade at all, but about what happens after the deal is done.
Small Business Index Rockets Up to Mid-2000s Level
Published January 12, 2017
The NFIB's small business index came in at 105.8. It has had two months near-vertical increase, now at levels not seen since December 2004 when it was 106.1. It's sheer optimism that small business concerns about taxes, regulation, and the economy will improve. There are many reports about improved confidence, especially among consumers, but it seems like it's too much too soon. While the new administration might be able to provide some regulatory relief in its early days, most of its desired actions require acts of Congress. Those can sometimes take forever... or longer.
Trade, World Economic Conditions, and I Love Lucy
Published January 12, 2017
The new administration is taking aim at trade agreements and some trading partners. The fear about this is likely overdone, and the focus will be more on what happens inside those agreements as practical matters
US Commercial Printing Industry Employment Finishes -2.5%; Consolidation Effects Evident
Published January 11, 2017
The US commercial printing industry finished the year with 439,900 employees, down -11,200 compared to 2015. The number of production employees was down -3,100, a -1.0% decrease. Non-production employees represented the biggest change, down -8,400 (-6.0%).
Recovery Indicators January 2017
Published January 9, 2017
With the Dow Jones and S&P 500 at all-time inflation-adjusted highs. The recovery indicators are stronger than they have been in a while, with very bullish increases in new orders for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, and a strong reading of the NASDAQ stock index.
Third Media Wave May Trap Print Businesses
Published January 8, 2017
The beginning of the 2017 should be noisy from a political perspective, but the opportunity for distraction might be the biggest opportunity one can have. Stay focused as we're in the midst of a third media wave that may trap print businesses that have not prepared for it. And then there's the teenager who bought a newspaper. No, not a copy of a newspaper, but a newspaper business. This will be a strange year.
3Q-2016 Real GDP Revised Up Again; Did US Just Emerge from an Unrecognized Recession?
Published December 22, 2016
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its third report of real Gross Domestic Product, at an annualized +3.5% over the second quarter. This is considered the final report, revising the advance report of +2.9% two months ago, and +3.2% in last month's preliminary report. This is important because each release of GDP data is based on increasing amounts of actual reported data. The advance report relies the most on estimates and models.
Technology is Powerful Stuff: Grab On or Duck
Published December 19, 2016
“It's not worth it for us” was the comment during a CEO panel that Dr. Joe attended, and that comment was about print. It was hard to take, but he wasn't surprised. What did the comment really mean? Does it fit with the unfolding new media allocation and shake-up ? Then Dr. Joe reviews the explosion in smartphones in information search and sharing, and how it exploded in the start of the holiday shopping season. What does it this mean for print, printers, and consolidation? Dr. Joe pulls it all together.
Commercial Printing Inflation-Adjusted Shipments Per Employee
Published December 16, 2016
The effects of consolidation, a challenging pricing environment, cost controls and productivity measures have sent shipments per employee to unprecendented levels. The prior peak was just before the recession began. The industry is more efficient in many ways, especially with the exit of weak and marginal establishments. But is it more profitable? In the December 15 webinar and in the new Forecast 2017 report, industry profit levels are discussed. Despite reaching new levels of sales per employee, profit levels have become tepid, a sign of tightening market conditions. In the webinar we discussed the possibility that another wave of media change is underway. The last major one was the rise of social media ten years ago, and now the growing impact of mobile media, especially this year.
Trump Inside the Beltway: Foggy with a Chance of Chaos
Published December 12, 2016
The Presidential transition certainly has its uncertainties. Traditional media had a tough election cycle, and that creates concern what business information executives can rely on as they make their plans. Perhaps they should just keep their heads down and focus on their customers and let the fog and chaos run its course. Small business is very optimistic, it may be too early to be so, but that's not stopping them or the stock markets.
Q3-2016 Real GDP Revised Up from +2.9% to +3.2%; Little Change in Yearly Comparison
Published December 1, 2016
The Bureau of Economic Analysis issued its second estimate of real gross domestic product, raising it to +3.2%. Real GDP for 2Q-2016 was +1.4%. Each advance release of GDP data is revised monthly as “more complete source data” is used rather than estimates. We prefer comparing GDP data to the same quarter as the prior year, which helps minimize the variation and possible distortions of seasonal adjustments. Compared to last year, Q3-2016 was +1.6%. Because inventory changes can distort GDP estimates, we also look at the data less inventories, and it shows the economy still hovering around a +2.0% growth rate. Lately, the inventory adjustments have been small. Theoretically, they should be zero in the long run, and for these last two quarters that has nearly been the case. In 2015, it averaged +$82 billion per quarter. Some of 2016's sluggish performance has been an inventory adjustment in the overall economy. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for the current Q4 is running at +2.4%.
Print is Good. So What? Print is Intimidating. That Matters.
Published November 28, 2016
Dr. Joe went to lunch and heard a three-word sentence that changed his Graph Expo and his industry conversations thereafter. When he said those three words, jaws would drop, but curiosity would rise. The three words? “Print is Intimidating.” And we always thought we were being nice. Find out why in Dr. Joe's column.
Fed's Industrial Production Index Down for 13 Consecutive Months: A Recession on Inauguration Day?
Published November 17, 2016
Will the newly inaugurated President Trump be dealing with a recession like his predecessor did? In December 2008, a recession was declared, and the experts said it started almost a year before then. Several economic indicators, like durable goods orders and factory orders, have been negative compared to the prior year's level for almost two years. The Federal Reserve's Industrial Production Index released on November 16 marked its thirteenth consecutive negative comparison to the prior year. The only sector that is holding up in the GDP reports is the consumer side of that bookkeeping. That can't hold up for long unless the production and investment side of the GDP ledgers start to perk up. There is optimism in the markets about a Trump recovery, but it must be noted that there are many legislative hurdles ahead, and most economic plans take about 18 months to develop notable impact.
Stuff I Said in 2008: How It Turned Out
Published November 14, 2016
Eight years ago we were changing presidential paths as we are today, and Dr. Joe had a webinar amidst that tumult of the freshly declared recession, jittery markets, and that upcoming transition. This week, he goes into the archives and reviews what he forecast – and grades himself accordingly. He even gave himself an F for one of the forecasts – how did he do on the others?
US Commercial Printing Shipments in Mild Downturn; Employment Consolidation Continues
Published November 7, 2016
US commercial printing shipments for September 2016 were down -$8 million compared to the prior year (-0.1%). On an inflation-adjusted basis, shipments were down by -$118 million. Interestingly, inflation-adjusted August shipments were up by +$118 million, making the net change for the two months zero.
US Employments Report: Not What the Headlines Said
Published November 7, 2016
The business headlines about the October employment report may have said “unemployment rate falls to 4.9%; payrolls grow +161,000,” but the details of the overall employment picture deteriorated.
Recovery Indicators Mixed Again
Published November 4, 2016
Last month's recovery indicators bounced back big from a dreadful report, but this month's have moderated. The ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing new orders decreased, but they are still above the 50 breakeven level, showing growth. The non-manufacturing side is still strongly on the growth side of the line.
Q3 Real GDP +2.9%; Soybeans Lead the Charge?
Published November 1, 2016
Prior to the release of Q3's advance estimate of real GDP, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast was +2.1%. The official figure came in much better, at +2.9%. It is likely to be revised down slightly, but it was a much better showing than recent data.
National Retail Federation Forecasts +3.6% in Holiday Retail Sales
Published October 29, 2016
The National Retail Federation issued its forecast of holiday retail sales. It expects a +3.6% increase compared to 2015. But what's the real increase? After deducting for inflation, that's about +1.5%. If real GDP comes in at +2% in the October 28, 2016 advance report for Q3, holiday retail sales growth will be in line with the growth rate of +1.4% for the year. In some ways, this can be a good year compared to recent history. Holiday retail sales have averaged +2.46% since 2007, with a net after inflation of only +0.64%. On a per person basis, that's actually a decline in that period.
GSMA Intelligence Mobile Trends
Published October 27, 2016
Mobility and Print Align at an Opportune Time
Published October 24, 2016
There's nothing like print enriching itself, and mobile might be the way to do it. A surge in mobile information preference is underway. How should printers plan? Diving in of course, by turning on static print materials into Internet and other gateways. If printers have sidestepped the digital media revolution to concentrate on the media they do best, this may be an opportune time to enliven their offerings as technology, economics, and consumer preference seem to be aligning themselves in a very special way.
Per Capita Pounds of Mail
Published October 13, 2016
Since the beginning of the economic recovery in 2009, first class mail is down by -12%, standard mail (discounted bulk mail) down by -18%, and periodicals down a whopping -32%.
Recovering Recovery and Quadrennial Snapshots: More Logical than it Sounds
Published October 10, 2016
For once the employment report was bad on the outside but good on the inside. Printing employment continues to show consolidation effects. The recovery indicators have their own recovery. August printing shipments are big, making up for July’s disturbing decline. Dr. Joe’s good Graph Expo included a visit to the Printerverse and a digital book discussion worth watching.
Q2 Real GDP Revised Up to +1.4%; Durable Goods Orders Contracting for 20 Months
Published October 4, 2016
Real GDP for the second quarter got its final revision, and was raised from +1.1% to +1.4%. Regular readers know that we prefer to look at real GDP on a year-to-year basis, excluding inventories, to give a better long-term view of the economy. The second quarter had an inventory correction, which seemed overdue.
Manufacturing May Be Declining, but Real Retail Sales are Still Positive
Published September 22, 2016
Data about manufacturing from the ISM and the Commerce Department have show a contraction compared to the prior year. In some cases that slowdown and contraction has been in process for 18 or more months. Retail sales and consumer spending have been the brighter spots of the economy. The inflation-adjusted growth rate of retail sales has been slowing since the beginning of 2015.
Worth Reading: History of JFK's Economic Legacy
Published September 22, 2016
Traditional Publishing Ebbs, and Oh, Those CMOs
Published September 19, 2016
Remember that “content is king” thing? The king is losing money. Worldwide ad agency Carat is forecasting moderate growth in advertising, but major shifts in the way ad budgets are spent. It's a fascinating look at worldwide communications with significant implications for printers of all sizes. And then those CMOs... just when they think they have it figured out, they're getting fired again.
Pew Offers Essential Insights into Book Readership
Published September 15, 2016
The Pew Research Center's recent report about book reading gives us a peek at the relationship of print and digital media. The report says “A growing share of Americans are reading e-books on tablets and smartphones rather than dedicated e-readers, but print books remain much more popular than books in digital formats.” The chart shows what formats their respondents used in the year prior to the survey. Only 6% were digital-only readers. The report states that 26% read no book in the last year; they may have read other things, but not books. Contrary to many reports about the “demise” of e-books, that has risen from 17% to 28%. It's been stuck there for three years. Print-only readers were 39% (remember: that used to be the entire market of book readers). Print and digital readers are now at 29%. Add the 6% digital-only, and you're at 35%. Content needs to be available in multiple media. Media selection is based on many factors, such as time, convenience, price, income, education, age, and others. Pew also offers insights into the use of audiobooks. The report is free can be downloaded from the Pew Research Center. One other note: when you hear that tablet sales are down or that e-book reader sales are down, keep in mind the versatile use of smartphones and their growing role in content engagement. Among readers 18-29 years old, 22% of them are reading books on their smartphones, 4x more than read them on e-book readers.
Employment, Shipments, and Profits: The Objects of Inflection?
Published September 12, 2016
Employment and GDP reports did not inspire, and July's printing shipments made us ponder. In the printing profits data, smaller did better, again. Ponder this: have print's gargantuans lost their economies of scale? Big was supposed to be better, smarter, and sturdy. It turns out that the big interest in big printers was of the loan payment kind. If pondering makes you hungry, you might consider some food shopping. They say the price of food is down but, alas, we learn it's just less up.
Four of Six Recovery Indicators Fall, Two Now Below Levels of Last Recession
Published September 8, 2016
The recovery indicators were hit hard last month last month, with two of them falling below the levels at the start of the last recession. Those levels were the readings of these indicators for December 2007.
US Commercial Printing Shipments Have Rough July
Published September 7, 2016
The reversal in trend for US commercial printing shipments went from somewhat benign to significant in July's data. Last year, the industry was relatively stronger than 2014, but shipments have been on a downturn for the last four months of reporting.
Real GDP for Q2 Revised Down Slightly to +1.1%; Durable Goods Orders Still Contracting
Published August 29, 2016
The latest revision of real US GDP for Q2-2016 dropped from +1.2% to +1.1%. The estimate for Q3 from the Atlanta Fed is above +3%.
Don't be in the One in Seven
Published August 25, 2016
One in seven US households has negative net worth, according to Bloomberg. It was based on a new report by the New York Federal Reserve. According it Bloomberg, “
E-Commerce and US Retail Sales
Published August 25, 2016
E-commerce has been running at the rate of 15% annual growth for many years, but is just 8% of retail sales. That seems tiny in relation to what we've seen happen to print promotions like catalogs and direct mail, and the rise of zombie or troubled shopping malls. The problem is that big ticket items, like autos, raise the size of retail sales. Those items may be researched online, but their actual purchase is not made until it is transacted at a car dealer. Restaurant purchases are also a distorting issue in the data. This chart explains it a little better. E-commerce sales is at the bottom (red line). In the second quarter, it was just short of $100 billion. The blue line is retail sales less vehicles and parts. The green line has food service sales deducted. The black line had e-commerce sales deducted, and shows retail sales through traditional channels. Those sales through older channels are lower than they were at the start of the recession. All of the growth in non-auto and non-restaurant retail for the last decade has occurred in e-commerce channels.
Straightforward Economics; Can You be Trusted with “The Good Leads”?
Published August 22, 2016
There are signs of economic slowdown despite what cable's talking heads say. The disparity of consumer prices and printing prices help explain the forces of consolidation and why print businesses need to have a constant review of their costs and value creation capabilies. The Australia Census folks may need to paper over a computer problem. Nothing helps improve sales more than leads, sales leads, the good leads.
Commercial Printing Employment: Production Employees Up +0.7%, Administrative Down -8.1%
Published August 11, 2016
Since January 2013, the number of production employees in commercial printing establishments has grown slightly, and is up +0.7%, from 307,700 employees to 310,000. Other employees, which are mainly administrative including sales, are down -8.1%, from 145,000 to 133,300.
Changes in Employment, the Economy, and Print
Published August 8, 2016
Nothing is ever what it seems, and that goes for last week's employment report (again). Ripples of consolidation are seen in printing employment data. There's growth in the advertising and design markets, and pain in publishing. Dr. Joe puts GDP and printing shipments into historical context. The iPhone is a means to explore the topic of trade. No, Dr. Joe's not trading in his iPhone.
US Commercial Printing Shipments for First Half of 2016 Up +1%; Q2 Shipments Decline
Published August 5, 2016
In data released by the US Department of Commerce, commercial printing shipments for June 2016 were down -$58 million compared to last year (-0.8%). On an inflation-adjusted basis, shipments were down -$130 million (-1.8%).
Recovery Indicators: 3 Up, 2 Down, 1 Unchanged
Published August 4, 2016
The NASDAQ had a good month, rebounding by 6.5% last month. Compared to last year at this time, the NASDAQ is up +0.6%, which is a negative return compared to inflation (less inflation it is -0.5% because the CPI is +1.1%).
GDP Revisions Show Declining Growth Rate Since 2014
Published August 2, 2016
The annual multi-year revision of US GDP data was released on Friday. The new data reflect more complete reporting of the thousands of data series that are used in the calculation of GDP and less reliance on estimated data. The revisions cover GDP from 2013 to the present reporting.
S&P 500 Real Sales per Share Reflects Struggling Economy
Published July 28, 2016
A way of judging the health of the economy is to calculate the inflation-adjusted sales of all of the companies in the S&P 500 and divide it by the total number of public shares. This index should have a natural upward bias. S&P 500 companies are very large, and acquire or merge with other companies, many of which are outside of the 500 companies. Buybacks of stock, which has been a trend of note these last five or so years, reduce the number of shares, or slow the growth in shares, reduce the denominator, again, giving it an upward bias. Instead, this measure has suffered. It peaked in 2007, and has yet to surpass that level. This means that corporate profits, which have generally been good (though slowing lately) have been managed by refinancing of debt to lower interest rates and reductions in costs and expenses. Those better profits are not the result of increased revenues. Slow, sluggish economic growth is reflected in these figures, and is a reminder that one should not look only to GDP as an indicator of the true health of the private sector.
Are You Ready for Atomic Memory in the Hands of Big Brother when You're Texting and Walking?
Published July 28, 2016
Dr Joe on Atomic Memory, Audio-enabled mobile coupons, Digital ad spending of US retailers, Barron's market data calendar,
Look What I Found! Print!
Published July 25, 2016
An Olgivy & Mather executive discovers print. We need to discover it, too, looking at print through the eyes of our clients and prospects. It's not that print is dead or not dead, there is a generation of media buyers for whom print is not alive. This ad exec's comments are vital in understanding how to make print relevant and, surprisingly, new.
Employment Data Discombobulation Might Require an IRL Meeting
Published July 11, 2016
Commercial printing's workforce reflects consolidation and leaner management. Last week's employment data was so haphazard it looks suspiciously like a dart board was involved. The USPS still needs to be Spooner-fed. If this all sounds confusing, perhaps it's time for an IRL with Dr. Joe.
Recovery Indicators Better than Recent Economic News
Published July 7, 2016
The recovery indicators showed better economic activity in June. This ended the second quarter in a manner that seemed contrary to many recent economic data.
Are We Headed to QE4?
Published July 7, 2016
This chart shows the Fed's balance sheet in the format known as the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base. Prior to the doubling of that balance sheet, it was growing at the annual rate of 6%, which was basically comprised of the long term rates of 1% for population growth, 2% for inflation, and 3% for economic growth.
May Printing Shipments Up +1.2% Versus 2015; Trend is Flattening
Published July 6, 2016
US commercial printing shipments for May16 were $7.37 billion, the highest level in current dollars for the month since 2013. For the first five months of 2016, shipments are up approximately +$476 million in current dollars (+1.4%) and up +$79 billion after inflation (+0.2%)
US Q1-2016 GDP Revised to +1.1%
Published June 30, 2016
US real GDP for Q1-2016 had its third and final revision in this reporting cycle, and was +1.1% on an annualized basis compared to Q4-2015. Q1 had been reported as +0.5% in its advance report, +0.8% in the preliminary report, and now as +1.1%. Real GDP remains very low compared to the post-WW2 +3.3% rate.
Mixed Signals, Chaos, and Bureaucracy
Published June 27, 2016
Last week, the polls were wrong and Brexit rattled the markets. But the people most worried were central planning bureaucrats who wonder how to make sure it never happens again. The number of business establishments and microbusinesses are still growing. Durable goods orders send another recession signal. It’s another week of mixed and mixed up signals, something economists like because it makes them look busy.
Industrial Production Continues its Negative Turn
Published June 23, 2016
The Fed’s own data probably caused them to have a more dour outlook about the economy. The chart shows that US industrial production started slowing at the end of 2014 and has been in outright contraction since Fall 2015.
The Fed Backs Off – No Increase, More Worry
Published June 23, 2016
The Federal Reserve’s latest statement shows continued befuddlement about why they can’t get inflation moving higher and why the raw numbers of employment are weak. So they called a time out and will wait for things to change.
Print: The Antidote for Ad Blocking?
Published June 23, 2016
Is this print’s chance to make a flanking move into the marketing budget. The eMarketer analyst says “Ad blocking is a detriment to the entire advertising ecosystem, affecting mostly publishers, but also marketers, agencies and others whose businesses depend on ad revenue.” He then says, “The best way for the industry to tackle this problem is to deliver compelling ad experiences that consumers won’t want to block.”
Advertising Rebounds in Q1-2016 v 2015; Publishing Still Struggles
Published June 16, 2016
Advertising agency had a much better first quarter than last year, up by nearly $3.9 billion on an inflation-adjusted basis (+16.5%) according to the most recent Quarterly Services Survey. Advertising revenues had slipped in 2014 and 2015, in similar pattern to the decline in durable goods and other manufacturing orders and shipments.
Prices for Advertising Rise for Magazines, Stable for TV and Newspapers, Down for Digital
Published June 16, 2016
The chart shows that magazine advertising has gone up by more than 20% since 2010, but it's hard to know how much might have been bundled in those prices. Pricing reports sent to the Bureau of Labor Statistics are supposed to be in constant units, but it's hard to determine those in service environments, and it's hard to quantify a wink or a nod in an advertising agreement.
Get Linked Into What Dr. Joe's Reading Lately
Published June 16, 2016
Dr Joe on Microsoft buying LinkedIn, restaurant kiosks, investments in rewards programs, mapping GDP.
Smaller Printers Are Giants in Profits
Published June 9, 2016
The changes in the media markets led to the declines in magazines, catalogs, newspaper inserts, and many of the products produced by large printing organizations. For years, these companies were giants in the industry, but recently this sector has been restructuring through consolidations. Writedowns in goodwill and for closed plants have cut the profits of these organizations.
Q1 Printing Profits Rebound; Large Printers Still Lag Smaller Establishments
Published June 7, 2016
The profits before taxes of US commercial printers rebounded in the first quarter. Profits for the quarter are estimated at $1.37 billion, the highest level since the third quarter of 2013, when they were $1.42 billion adjusted for inflation. Profits were $810 million for the first quarter of 2015, making this a significant turnaround.
Consolidating Printing Employment, Shipments End a Streak, and an Ugly Employment Report that Dresses Nice
Published June 6, 2016
Things are not what they seem. Streaking was not good in the 1970s, it’s definitely not good on presses, but streaking is great when it’s a growth streak in printing shipments. Unfortunately, the latter has ended, so let’s start a new one. The employment report was bad but that made interest-rate worriers happy. There’s nothing like getting statistically giddy over the numerical misfortune of others. Maybe they need to find a niche like a very happy Vancouver printer did.
Q1-2016 Real GDP Revised Up to +0.8%; Economy Already Recovering from Mini-Recession
Published June 2, 2016
The first estimate of Q1-2016 GDP was +0.5%, and that was revised up slightly to +0.8%. The concerns about recession are being reduced lately with some better economic news that show the economy on its sluggish pattern of sub-par growth in the +2% range, well below the post-WW2 average of +3.3%. As noted many times, there are numerous economic indicators that have yet to reach their pre-recession levels. Since this pattern has been so long in duration, even non-money denominated statistics, such as employment, have to be adjusted by population growth to discern true underlying levels. The chart shows Real GDP on a more conservative year-to-year basis as reported and with the volatile effects of inventory changes removed. The economy still seems to be digesting some long-term inventory rebalancing, some of which is related to global currency and other economic issues. The slowdown of the first quarter still seems to be limited to the first six weeks of the year. At the time of this writing, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of Q2-2016 is at +2.5%. While that is a disappointing level, it is consistent within the lackluster level of economic growth that has come to be known these past years as “new normal.” Since 2011, real GDP has averaged only 2%. The difference in the average may not seem a lot, but a 2% annual growth rate will result in an economy doubling in size in 39 years; at 3.3%, it doubles almost 16 years sooner.
A Dr. Joe Potpourri: Meeker’s 200 Slides, Marriott Gives Points for (un)Cleanliness, and OECD Says the New Normal May Not be New, but It’s Still Here
Published June 2, 2016
A Dr. Joe Potpourri: Meeker’s 200 Slides, Marriott Gives Points for (un)Cleanliness, and OECD Says the New Normal May Not be New, but It’s Still Here
What Dr. Joe's Reading: USPS Makes No Cents, CMOs Seek Doers and Thinkers, Managers Work Overtime over the New Overtime Rules
Published May 26, 2016
What Dr. Joe's Reading: USPS Makes No Cents, CMOs Seek Doers and Thinkers, Managers Work Overtime over the New Overtime Rules
Retail Sales Growth Rates Reflect Changes in Competition and Consumer Preferences
Published May 26, 2016
Department stores are still having problems. Their year/year growth rate has been negative for more than a decade. E-commerce sales are maintaining a 15% growth rate. At that rate, they double every five years. The last peak in growth for retail sales excluding motor vehicles was in late 2011, and that rate, unadjusted for inflation, has slowed to the 2% range. Retail sales are a function of household income, and their costs, and they remain sluggish as median household income has still not reached the level it was at the beginning of the recession. In the meantime, shopping malls, the department stores that anchor them, and mall owners are having problems. A Weekly Standard article about Amazon has some insights into it. The downslide of brick and mortar retail stores and malls can create collection problems for printers who sell to them, but there are changes underway that might hold some opportunities for those printers who seek them. Developers are using mall complexes for new buildings that include office space and even hospitals and hockey rinks. There are also new efforts to treat the shopping experience not just as a matter of location, but holistically to include all digital touchpoints inside and outside the mall. How will much of this be communicated? It will often require signage, working closely with store owners and local mall management. Those printers, attuned to the nature of communications logistics and data management, can find opportunities there.
Government Shipment Revisions Make Everything New Again (Not Really)
Published May 23, 2016
Eventually, the numerous economic data published by the Federal government are right. Like wine, it takes time. As businesspeople, we can’t always be that patient.
Printing Industry Shipments Revised from 2007 to 2016, with Minor Changes Since 2009
Published May 19, 2016
The years 2008 through 2013 had slight revisions higher; the end of 2013 to present had slight revisions lower. The Commerce Department's revisions to all manufacturing data are leading up to a multi-year revision of GDP data at the end of July.
One Printer Uses “Print is Dead” to Get Into the Minds of Content Creators and Decision Makers
Published May 19, 2016
One printer has taken the “print is dead” concept and is making presentations to communicators about how print works with digital media.
Manufacturing Still in Contraction
Published May 19, 2016
The latest Federal Reserve industrial production index showed a slowdown since late 2014 and an outright contraction since mid-2015 is still in process. The business press focused on the comparison to the prior month, which looked like an improvement. The chart, however, compares to the prior year. Recent consumer retail data have been more optimistic, and the premise that we had a “micro-recession” at the beginning of the first quarter seems to be justified. There is growing pressure to weaken the US dollar to make manufacturing exports less expensive to international customers. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q2 GDP is now +2.5%. At that rate, it would be a rebound from Q1's +0.5%.
Graphic Design Employment Up +6%, Agencies up +2.8%
Published May 12, 2016
Content creation is in a strong uptrend based on the latest employment data. Graphic design employment is up +6%, and has taken over from public relations employment as the surging area of hiring.
Dr. Joe's Reading for a New Day
Published May 12, 2016
Recommended reading from Dr. Joe Webb: It's the end of days for London's print newspaper New Day. Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Model Estimating Q2-2016 GDP at +2.2%, Lingering Effects of Recession, Justice Denies Staples and OfficeDepot... Again. Rubbing Sahl in an Old Wound
Do You Have a Culture of Honest Data?
Published May 9, 2016
The latest employment report had analysts scratching their heads. One ugly report does not a recession make, and things may not be as bad as it seemed. It could just be the same old lackluster recovery. Joel Quadracci had some interesting comments about Quad's restructuring efforts that have a good lesson for all managers. Honest data can take a beating in politics, whether they're in elections or in business offices. Does your business have a culture of frankness in the way it reports information?
19 Consecutive Months of Improved US Commercial Printing Shipments
Published May 5, 2016
US commercial printing shipments have increased compared to the prior year for 19 consecutive months. March 2016 shipments were up +$85 million (+1.1%) in current dollars compared to 2015, and +$22 million (+0.3%) after adjusting for inflation. February 2016 shipments were revised up by $2 million.
What Dr. Joe's Reading about Apple, Digital Signage, and USPS Worker Mood
Published May 5, 2016
What Dr. Joe's Reading about Apple, Digital Signage, and USPS Worker Mood
Recovery Indicators Better than the Recent General Economic News
Published May 5, 2016
The recovery indicators are more positive than the general economic news. One of our indicators, the NASDAQ, is down -1.7% since last month. It's been on a rocky road for the last three quarters. Its recent peak was 5218.86 in July, and it has not gotten really close since. Stock market concerns have focused on a decline in the rate of corporate profits, and Apple's recent financial report did not really help matters. There was a bullish rise in non-manufacturing orders. Manufacturing new orders index might look like a decline, but it is still indicate moderate growth. Proprietors income, a measure of the health of small business, was up only slightly. Other reports of small business health have not been good, especially the recent NFIB Small Business report. This month's recovery indicators don't indicate recession, a word that is bandied about with greater frequency lately, but support the continuing unsatisfying levels of slow but positive growth.
Q1-2016 GDP +0.5%; Inventory Correction Finally Arrives
Published April 29, 2016
US real GDP for Q1-2016 was reported at annual growth of only +0.5% compared to Q4-2015. On a year-to-year basis, the growth rate was +1.95%. The inventory adjustment that the economy has needed finally came, with the lowest net inventories in two years. Real GDP growth less inventories was +2.3% on a year-to-year basis.
S&P 500 Revenue Per Share Still Lags Economy
Published April 28, 2016
Everyone knows that the stock market is up from its lows at the bottom of the recession,but one obscure but key measure underscores how sluggish the economy has been. The S&P 500 should have a bias of steadily increasing revenues. It has most of the best companies in the world, with international presence in the globe's growing markets and a foundation in the established ones. It is rare for companies to be dismissed from the S&P 500, but companies are added all the time. When S&P companies merge, they create a new entity of combined revenues, and another company is added with new revenues to add to the index. The other upward bias should be the high level of stock buybacks buy these large companies, as they borrow money at low interest rates and create “shareholder value” by reducing the number of shares and increasing the value of each share of stock. We've called this cowardly, as it increases earnings per share (EPS) without needing to increase total profits. So this revenue per share should be steadily increasing with a growing economy in a recovery that started in mid-2009. It seems that companies have done a much better job of financial engineering than they have in creating revenues.
What Dr. Joe's Reading: Apple's Horrid Quarter Produces a Paltry 20% Profit; Smartphones and PCs; Labor Shortages
Published April 28, 2016
What Dr. Joe's Reading: Apple's Horrid Quarter Produces a Paltry 20% Profit; Smartphones and PCs; Labor Shortages.
Less Gets More, Models and Supermodels, and Why True and False Should Add Up
Published April 25, 2016
The latest government data show fewer commercial printing establishments, fewer employees, but higher pay. Now that more economic data are negative, we should really know if forecasting models economists use make any sense beyond predicting the past. Many of those models use spreadsheet software, and some programs can't make what's true and what's false add up. Yes it's a Dr. Joe potpourri.
NFIB Small Business Index: A New Recession for Main Street?
Published April 21, 2016
Economic data have been conflicting of late, but there is one consensus in the data that is clear: the small business economy did not recover from recession, and looks like it’s back in recession territory. There are many indicators we use for small business but one that is watched often is that of the NFIB. It is published monthly and has a long history. US government data focuses attention on the largest businesses because they represent big chunks of the economy and report some kind of data, especially payroll data, with great frequency. Think of it as counting whales rather than minnows. Their recent analysis said “The small business sector... is underperforming, doing little more than operating in maintenance mode. Slow economic growth is now just a result of population growth, more haircuts, retail customers, health care patients, etc. But there is no exuberance, no optimism and not much hope, the numbers make it clear.” Economies stuck in +2% growth mode tend to do that.
Dr. Joe’s Latest Reading About Marketing, Loans, Recession, Taxes
Published April 21, 2016
This week's recommended reading and articles of interest to media and printing executives.
2014 US Commercial Printing Capital Expenditures: New Purchases Down, Used Purchases Up
Published April 19, 2016
The US Department of Commerce recently released its Annual Survey of Manufactures Capital Expenditures report, issuing data for 2014.
The Fed Never Really Stopped QE3
Published April 14, 2016
This week’s chart shows the aggressive actions of the Federal Reserve after the housing bubble. For decades, the Fed’s balance sheet increased by about 6% per year, averaging about half inflation and half economic growth. The rocket-like rise when the bubble burst is clear, and then the three steps up of each of the quantitative easings are plainly seen. The Fed has wanted to raise rates for some time, but they have also wanted to stop the buying of government instruments that characterized the QE programs. They create shortages of publicly traded bonds which increases their prices, which makes the effective interest rates low. Rather than ending their purchases, the Fed has been replacing matured obligations. In effect, this keeps QE3 going. Can the Fed ever end it? They may hold on and hope that over time that economic growth and inflation catches up to them in time, but that can take forever, or perhaps longer. It will be difficult for the Fed to end its policy without robust economic growth that will give them the flexibility and opportunities to unwind their holdings. Should a recession begin, or a new financial crisis emerge (even an internationally) the Fed might need to create an additional QE effort.
USPS, Shiny Objects, Recovery, and Recession
Published April 11, 2016
The USPS exigent price increase has expired, and USPS says they “will lose approximately $2 billion in annual revenue resulting from a price reduction” which they knew was going to expire. The increase was to help “recover for the massive volume and revenue losses resulting from the Great Recession.” Yet, Dr. Joe shows that the declines in USPS volume kept declining after the economic recovery began in mid-2009. Then Dr. Joe talks about recession in light of recent economic data. Yeah, they’ll be calling him Dr. Doom again.
Can USPS Price Increase Rollback Get EDDM Moving Again?
Published April 7, 2016
The USPS is always in the news, and last month's Annual Compliance Determination report was not particularly positive. “The majority of products failed to meet service performance targets for FY 2015” read the Postal Regulatory Commission press release. The PRC directed “the Postal Service to improve service performance and provide a comprehensive plan within 90 days.”
Dr. Joe's Recommended Reading about Co-Workers, Presidential Candidates, and Disruption
Published April 7, 2016
This week's recommended reading and articles of interest to media and printing executives.
Twenty-one Months of Consecutive Increases for US Commercial Printing Shipments
Published April 6, 2016
The US Department of Commerce issued its latest report of US commercial printing shipments (NAICS 323) and the data show 21 consecutive months of positive comparisons to the prior year current dollar shipments. The trend started with June 2014, and has been an average increase of +3.3%, +$225 million per month, for that period.
Recovery Indicators Say “Recession? Don't Know the Word”
Published April 6, 2016
We may have gone through the first six week recession in history. That's said a bit tongue-in-cheeck, but many of the economic measures seem to have bottomed or are in the process of doing so. Besides that, recessions are measured in quarters, not weeks. The doom of the global economic slowdown and the worldwide currency crises seems to have left with a whimper.
Printing Profits Rebound (A Little)
Published March 31, 2016
Profits bounced back from a terrible third quarter which had an industry-aggregate loss of -2.57% as a percentage of revenues, and went back up to a more reasonable 4.38%. The difference was the massive writedowns of the third quarter which resulted in a -10.97% loss in printing companies with more than $25 million in assets.
Dr. Joe's Thoughts and Resources, and Some Road Warrior Advice
Published March 31, 2016
This week's recommended reading and articles of interest to media and printing executives.
Third Look at 4Q-2015 GDP Revised Up, Atlanta Fed Q1-2016 GDP Estimate Plummets
Published March 30, 2016
In a clear case of dealing with a two-handed economist when asked about economic conditions, the Bureau of Economic Analysis increased their estimate of fourth quarter GDP to +1.4%. The initial report was +0.7%, and then it was revised to +1.0%, and now it is +1.4%. They were off only by $100 billion from the first report, greater than the size of the printing industry, just to add some perspective about how big the US economy is.
Updated Commercial Printing Forecasts to 2021
Published March 24, 2016
Now that 2015 data are complete, we have run the forecasting models again and present them in this chart.
This Week's Dr. Joe Recommended Reading
Published March 24, 2016
This week's recommended reading and articles of interest to media and printing executives.
The Role of Print in the Media Mix and Shifting Economic Perspectives
Published March 21, 2016
Outsell, Inc., those folks who got our industry's attention by saying “print can be a legitimate spinoff from the Web,” are out with their latest estimates of media spending for 2016. Their latest data should make print owners and executives take notice because they offer a view into the problems that communications decision-makers face, and we're all about solving problems, aren't we. Dr. Joe adds his commentary to theirs and his insights into some of the latest economics news.
Advertising Agency Revenues Have Major Revision Down for 2013 & 2014, but Remain in Long-term Uptrend
Published March 17, 2016
The US Department of Commerce released its latest Quarterly Service Survey last week, and it reduced shipments for the third quarter of 2013 by -$4 billion (whoops – a -15% statistical error).
Fed Keeps Rates as they Are; Reduces Likely Number of Rate Increases in 2016 from Four to Two
Published March 17, 2016
This topic will be discussed in the upcoming Mondays with Dr. Joe on March 21. This news surprised no one as there are still great concerns about the economic conditions of world markets. The statement released at their prior meeting did not include comments about risk, but the one for this meeting did. They said “The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen. However, global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks.” It's likely that the first part was wishful thinking, since retail sales data were disappointing and prior data were revised down, and manufacturing activity still shows difficult time in that sector. The chances of no increases or only one in 2016 are now higher.
Dr. Joe's Neat Stuff in the Media
Published March 17, 2016
There have been several reports released recently that are of interest to media and printing executives.
Dr. Joe Ramblings: Small Business, Praise to Harvey, Great Reports, and the College “Bubble”
Published March 10, 2016
Dr. Joe Ramblings: Small Business, Praise to Harvey, Great Reports, and the College “Bubble”
Is the Positive Run for Commercial Printing Coming to a Close?
Published March 10, 2016
The latest printing shipments were discussed in the “Mondays with Dr. Joe” of March 7. The chart offers more details. Revenues turned around on a current dollar basis with June 2014 shipments (blue line) and the positive comparisons to the prior year kept going until the most recent report, January 2016. In current dollars, January’s shipments were barely above those of 2015, keeping the positive comparison streak intact.
Economic Data: It's Okay to be Less Worried
Published March 7, 2016
The recovery indicators bounced back from a scary month. Printing shipments beat out a weak grounder to keep their winning streak alive, unless the statisticians call it an error. And how does that relate to employment? Dr. Joe explains that, negative interest rates, adds his constant tirade against buybacks, and tells us not to get caught up in that saw about half of people not paying taxes. What can we say? It's Dr. Joe. You know how he gets.
Broadband Hours and US Commercial Printing
Published February 26, 2016
In 2014, US per capita hours using broadband is just over 900 per year (2.5 per day), and that's the entire population. The number of total hours has doubled since 2007. The population has grown in that period, but the average number of hours online per week has gone from 15.3 to 21.5 in 2014, and households with broadband connections grew from 76% to 89%. The cumulative effect has had most of its effect on mainstream commercial printing, especially information materials used for promotion and product support and advertising-funded products like magazines and catalogs. Printing's use is becoming more tactical, focused on specialty uses of printed images with higher expectations for impact, especially in concert with other media.
Dr Joe Comments: Small Business and Their Media Use
Published February 26, 2016
Who would think that a company that sells bar code technology would have data about the media small businesses use to promote themselves. It's actually a worthwhile study that Wasp Barcode Technologies provides.
Being Well-Adjusted is a Good Thing
Published February 22, 2016
An inflated view of performance is good, if you’re well adjusted. Let’s be real: retail sales were better but not encouraging. Ad agency and graphic design employees may finally set a new record in 2016.
Services Can't Save the Economy if Manufacturing “Tanks”: It's All Connected
Published February 18, 2016
The economic turbulence of the last few weeks of a bad GDP report for Q4, the negative trends in manufacturing, commodities prices collapsing because of declining demand, have led to chat of recession.
Dr. Joe's Comments: Recession, Buybacks, and Windows for Warriors
Published February 18, 2016
E-Commerce Retail Sales Still Growing at Nearly 15% Per Year
Published February 18, 2016
E-commerce sales of all types, including industrial products, is still growing at a rate just under 15% per year.
Printing Was 1 of 8 Major Manufacturing Industries with Positive Growth in 2015
Published February 11, 2016
Part of print's good 2015 was how well it did compared to other industries. Of 21 major manufacturing industries, nine had positive years in current dollars, with commercial printing as sixth highest. Precipitous decreases in commodities prices caused manufacturing in metals and energy to have such a bad year that the entire manufacturing sector declined -4.3%. For the year, current dollar GDP growth was +2.9%. For the first time in twenty years, commercial printing growth exceeded GDP.
Dr. Joe's Recommended Reading: Negative Rates, Shock that the Supply and Demand Law Works, and Linking Into Your Audience
Published February 11, 2016
Dr. Joe's Recommended Reading: Negative Rates, Shock that the Supply and Demand Law Works, and Linking Into Your Audience
Printing Shipments Have a Good Year Despite Mixed Signals from the Economy
Published February 8, 2016
The unemployment improved to a level not seen since the recession began, but it doesn't feel that good. Have the statisticians been running their thermometers under running water until it gets to the number they want? Printing shipments beat GDP for the year for the first time since 1995. Where are the cheers? And then there's a beef with image campaigns. Yeah, it's Dr. Joe time again.
Commercial Printing Prices Less Than December 2007; Paper and Ink Higher
Published February 4, 2016
Since December 2007, the CPI is up by +12.6%. How have the PPI for commercial printing, ink, and paper changed? Commercial printing prices are lower, -0.8%. This means that a commercial printing business has to increase its productivity and profitability to reward its owners and employees to make up for the loss of purchasing power they have in their paychecks.
US Commercial Printing Shipments Best Since 2008
Published February 4, 2016
US commercial printing industry shipments are up for 19 consecutive months in current dollars and 16 consecutive months compared to the corresponding month of the prior year. On an inflation-adjusted basis, the industry has had five positive quarters.
Dr. Joe's Must Reads: Demographics, Apple, and Butchers of Books
Published February 4, 2016
Various topics that caught Dr. Joe's attention the last week: Demographics, Apple, and Butchers of Books
Recovery Indicators Show Economic Slowdown Underway
Published February 4, 2016
The monthly recovery indicators were uneven again. The NASDAQ fell almost -7% in the last month, and ISM non-manufacturing new orders and imports also declined.
4Q-2015 GDP Disappoints at +0.7%; 2015 GDP +1.8%
Published February 1, 2016
Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) for the US increased by an annual rate of +0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2015. On a year-to-year basis, RGDP was up +1.8%.
Cloud Product Usage in the Printing Industry
Published January 28, 2016
The chart shows the percentage of US commercial printing establishments of all sizes and their responses to the question about the cloud-based services they use today. The question did not ask them their frequency or intensity of use, just whether or not they use it today. Some of the “non-users” may not even be aware that they are using cloud services, since some services run transparently in the background, such as backup services like Carbonite and others. Others may not be aware that they are using a VOIP phone system. Some cloud services such as Dropbox allow customers to brand their service so it looks like a company file sharing site. Generally, larger printers are using more cloud services than others, but the disparity is narrow.
Dr. Joe: Effects of Digitization, the “Haves and Have-mores” and Not the “Haves and Have-nots”
Published January 28, 2016
Two topics caught my eye this past week. The first is that digitization is now characterized as the “haves and have-mores” and not the “haves and have-nots.” The latter may be referring to Venezuela's economic problems with high inflation and shortages of goods.
Revenues Go One Way, Profits Go the Other
Published January 25, 2016
Profits are the focus of Dr. Joe this week. His data show two halves of the industry at the same size but the profits are not divided that way. It's not what you might expect.
Consolidation is Somewhat Different Than Industry Common Wisdom
Published January 21, 2016
Here are data from our survey at the end of 2015 where we asked respondents to identify the status of their companies in terms of consolidation. Generally, formal consolidations are executed by the largest print businesses, and small businesses close their respective shops and reopen a new business with new partners.
Recession Fears and Other Media Ramblings
Published January 21, 2016
Recession Fears and Other Media Ramblings: Recession Watch, Buybacks are Bad: I've Always Said It, Sniglets for the Digital Age, Courtesy of Mr. Tree, Duh! Tax Rates Make a Difference!
Dr. Joe Recommends: Finding International Economic Data
Published January 14, 2016
Need a global perspective of world economics and world events? Many of our readers do, especially those who sell equipment, supplies, software, and other products around the world.
NFIB Small Business Index Still Shows Weak Small Business
Published January 14, 2016
The latest survey of NFIB shows their index bouncing along the level of the early 2000s recession low, and down from the high prior to the December 2007 recession. Passing that level on the way up would have indicated a completed recovery of this sector but it just couldn't make it that far and break through. Using this indicator that means that small business did not emerge from the recession yet. Big business and the stock markets dominate the headlines, but small business remains the front line of the economy, and its difficulties are often hidden from view as being un-newsworthy. Its breakout above the bottom of the early 2000s recession took some time, and the recent trend in the chart looks like it's getting ready to fall below that again. It dipped below that level briefly a few months ago and climbed back out. Will it climb out again? It's worth watching.
Early Economic Confusion Puts 2016 on Uncertain Footing
Published January 11, 2016
It is times like these that make one yearn for one-armed economists. What should we believe? The crazy gyrations of the stock market? The collapse of commodity prices? Or what might be a surge in employment? No wonder Dr. Joe's lost his hair. He adds his comments to the economic stew.
What Share of Shipments is Sold by “Marketing Service Providers”?
Published January 7, 2016
For about a decade, many print businesses have marketed themselves as “marketing services providers” with varying degrees of success. Our recent survey showed less than half of print businesses market themselves in this or a similar manner.
Recovery Indicators Look More Like Recession Indicators – Are They?
Published January 6, 2016
Are the recovery indicators becoming recession indicators There's enough negative news of late to be wary about the state of the economy, and a lengthening list of geopolitical issues, for sure.
Eighteen Months of Industry Growth, Beating the Economy, Too
Published January 6, 2016
US commercial printing industry shipments are up for 18 consecutive months in current dollars compared to the corresponding month of the prior year.
Printing Profits Dive as Large Printers Have Massive Writedowns
Published December 22, 2015
The third quarter of 2015 marked a huge divergence in the performance of the industry, according to the Department of Commerce Quarterly Financial Report. Printers with more than $25 million in assets wrote down assets amounting to nearly -15% of revenues. This sent the quarterly moving total of inflation-adjusted profits before taxes to +$1.46 billion.
Happy to Be Content, But Not To Ship It
Published December 21, 2015
We took a survey of printers and they told us they were really happy. We got data about ad agency revenues and their revenues is still heading up. A big consulting firm says digital content will be bigger than ever. The post office data tells us there's less and less of their work in our mailboxes. The world is full of contradictory trends, and Dr. Joe sorts them out.
Dr. Joe Recommends: USC's Digital Future 2015 Report, New Rules of Marketing and PR Book
Published December 18, 2015
Dr. Joe Recommends: USC's Center for the Digital Future 2015 Report (PDF), e21's “Social Media Is Making Some Regulators Obsolete”, Content Marketing Institute Says “Lincoln Electric Believes Print is Relevant”, and “New Rules of Marketing and PR” Now in its Fifth Edition.
How the Business Structure of Commercial Printers Changed from 2008 to 2013
Published December 17, 2015
The recession started just before 2008 was beginning and the latest data from the County Business Patterns report shows how the business formats of the industry changed by 2013.
Commercial Printing is Closing 2015 with Historic High in Key Metric
Published December 8, 2015
Last week's unemployment report did it again, it was all wrapped up in a pretty package but it seemed empty when you looked inside. Contents must have settled during shipping. Speaking of content, employment in agencies and designers are up strongly compared to last year. The content creation business is doing well. Commercial printers are reconfiguring their businesses and produced an historic high in shipments per employee. Dr. Joe has the details.
Recovery Indicators Cause Concern
Published December 3, 2015
The recovery indicators turned in a mixed performance that warrants some caution, concern but not worry, yet. Some outside economic analysts starting to raise concerns about the economy in 2016. Citibank analysts peg the chances of recession in 2016 at 65%, the first such prognostication of a major investment firm that we have seen.
US Commercial Printing Shipments Have a Strong October, +$204 Million
Published December 3, 2015
For 17 consecutive months the US commercial printing industry has scored increased shipments compared to the same month of the prior year. In current dollars, the Commerce Department reported that shipments were $7.729 billion. That meant that October 2016's shipments were +$204 million compared to 2015, a +2.7% performance. For the year through October, shipments are +3.3% on a current dollar basis.
Mobile Plays Big Role in Black Friday
Published December 3, 2015
The rise of mobile marketing has been long expected, and it looks like Black Friday 2015 is key milestone: mobile was more than half of web site traffic for e-commerce sites. Black Friday “brick-and-mortar” traffic was disappointing, but retailers were aggressively pushing sales online because it reduces the risks of riot-like runs for bargains as stores open. Target Stores had so much online traffic for CyberMonday its servers could not handle the volume. It wasn't the first time that Target misforecast demand for online sales. Some of Black Friday shopping may have been “window shopping” for mobile ordering. IBM, which still has a big business in systems for retailers issued a free download report about what was learned on Black Friday. In that report is the chart we highlight this week. If you sell to retailers or to businesses that sell to retailers, the report is worth reading.
The Economy Stays Positive But Weak
Published November 30, 2015
The US economy was reported to be stronger in the third quarter than originally thought, but much of it was a rise in inventories. If retailers were stocking up for Black Friday, that might have been a mistake based on early reports. What's happened to the relationship of commercial printing and department stores? Dr. Joe has the history of that and also previews what's coming in this week's economic data.
Printing's Birth-Death Data Show Improving Industry Health
Published November 19, 2015
Even the usual industry dynamics are dynamic. The latest commercial printing industry birth-death data comparing 2012 to 2011 show a rising birth rate and a declining death rate. The +1608 births and -2262 deaths in 2012 were recent lows, as was the net change of only -654 establishments.
USPS EDDM Volume Decline Continues
Published November 13, 2015
What could be an important product for local retailers to make their baby steps into direct mail, keeps declining as the USPS raises prices on the Every Door Direct Mail (EDDM) service.
Dr Joe : Effective Nonprofit Marketing, Kauffman Index of Startup Activity
Published November 13, 2015
Dr Joe on: Five Things That Can Make Nonprofit Marketers More Effective, Apple Customers Are Older Than You Think, Kauffman Index of Startup Activity
Recovery Indicators Bounce Back
Published November 9, 2015
The recovery indicators had a better month than last. Five of the six indicators increased and one fell below the level of the start of the recession. New orders for manufacturing and non-manufacturing were impressive in their increases, in stark contrast to government reports about September's durable goods and factory orders.
Despite the Economic Muddle, Printing Shipments are Rising. What's Ahead?
Published November 8, 2015
The economic pundits were out in full force about the unemployment rate falling to 5%. Was it meaningful? Is this the sign of a bullish economic rebound? Then there's the 16 month rise in printing shipments. You'd think there'd be cheers from the audience that Dr. Doom is dead, and long live Dr. Boom! Instead, we hear nighttime crickets. What's behind the rise in shipments, is it real and will it last?
Can We Trust Government Data?
Published November 5, 2015
A recent academic paper published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives (Volume 29, Number 4, Fall 2015), “Household Surveys in Crisis,” illustrates the problems of government surveys that are used to make multibillion dollar and multiyear decisions of government and business.
Third Quarter US Commercial Printing Shipments Have Highest Growth Rate Since 1996
Published November 4, 2015
The US Commerce Department reported that commercial printing industry shipments are up for 16 consecutive months in current dollars compared to the same month of 2014.
Dr Joe: Fed Has Hurt Business Investment, Open Textbook Network, Economics for Real People
Published October 30, 2015
Dr Joe on Fed Has Hurt Business Investment, an "Open Textbook" initiative launching at the University of Minnesota, and a free economics textbook from Mises Institute called “Economics for Real People” by Gene Callahan.
Third Quarter GDP Not Good, but Better Under the Surface
Published October 29, 2015
The advance estimate of third quarter 2015 real GDP is +1.5%. We much prefer the year-to-year comparison, and also without the fluctuations of inventories. Those figures, also indicated in the chart, are +2.03% and +2.18% respectively. Net inventories have been running very high, but in the third quarter were $56.8 billion. This figure was cut in half from Q2, and is close to the 2010 to 2014 average.
Attracting the New Industry Workforce: Do We Know How to Do It?
Published October 26, 2015
There's a new poster that hopes to attract students to the printing workplace. Dr. Joe wonders if it can. He's got some ideas. Is getting involved in events a real business opportunity? There are so many touchpoints in the event process that there are numerous opportunities to help your clients and build your business
Recession Coming? Third Quarter GDP Looks Weaker than Experts Forecasted
Published October 22, 2015
The latest estimate (October 20) by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates that third quarter GDP will be +0.9%. That is, until the next data for their model comes in.
Economic Headlines Miss Factors that Explain Economy
Published October 19, 2015
There's no COLA for Social Security recipients this year, and that has nothing to do with the popular drink. The campaign trail leads to all kinds of abuse of economic data, so Dr. Joe adds a different perspective to things. Income isn't always income, because it's spending that really matters. Dr. Joe explains why. The winner of the Nobel Prize in economics explains the contentious political environment.
Recovery Indicators Mixed; Weak Employment Data Raise Downside Concerns
Published October 15, 2015
The Economic and Research Center Recovery Indicators had a mixed month but other economic data should raise some concerns.
Pew Internet Survey Shows Social Media Use Up, Way Up, in Last Ten Years
Published October 15, 2015
The Pew Internet Survey has released their latest survey (free download) of social media use and the long term trends are striking. The organization started tracking use in 2005 when social media use was by just 7% of the US population. Now, 65% of adults use social networking sites. Our chart shows the increases by age group.
Ninety percent of those between 18 and 29 use social media, which is not a surprise. Those social media users who are 65+ has more than tripled from 11% in 2010 to 35% in 2015. The report includes data about social media use by various demographics including income, race, gender, community, and education.
Commercial Printing Shipments in Uptrend: 15 Consecutive Months of Growth, Best Growth Rate Since 1996
Published October 14, 2015
US commercial printing industry shipments are up for 15 consecutive months compared to the same month of the prior year.
Changes in Commercial Printing Employment by State
Published October 8, 2015
The chart shows the changes in the average number of employees per establishment in the US and large printing states. The average size of printing businesses in an area offers clues to the kinds of printing produced there and the history of the industry in that area.
Profit Leaders Take It All, Again
Published October 5, 2015
The PIA Financial Ratios have been published for decades, and may be the most recognized of the association's publications. There are, of course, problems with all kinds of research gathering efforts, but the positives of the Ratios reports outweigh the negatives from a methodological standpoint.
Tax Foundation Report on the Postal Service and Other Resources
Published October 2, 2015
Debt as a Percentage of GDP
Published October 2, 2015
Many people confuse debt and deficit when they see it as part of the Federal government's annual budget. Deficit is the annual shortfall between a government's spending and its revenues. Debt is the accumulation of all of the deficits and surpluses of the prior years in that government's history.
Updated Printing Industry Capacity Utilization Data – Not What Everyone Thinks It Is
Published October 1, 2015
Even in the industry's most profitable and growing years, the mantra “there's too much capacity in the industry” was always heard. It's been a misplaced and inaccurate portrayal of the business, yet it persists.
The State of the Economy and Print
Published September 28, 2015
Dr. Joe wonders why there isn't a little spring to the industry's step with 14 months of better sales levels. It could just be that printers a feeling a sense of relief as they wonder what's next. And then there's the economy. Second quarter GDP look great, but was really less filling. He scratches the economic surface and finds some skepticism inside. If he didn't, he wouldn't be Dr. Joe.
Canada's Commercial Printing Shipments
Published September 17, 2015
Canada's commercial printing industry had a small rebound more than three years ago, before that of the US, and has been on a somewhat steady course since. In US dollars, however, Canada's gains market have been erased recently with the stronger dollar.
Advertising Agency Revenues Up +40% Since Bottom of Recession
Published September 14, 2015
Dr. Joe summarizes what he would say at Graph Expo 15 breakfast. Content creation is proving to be a big money maker for the ad agency business. Publishers are still having monetization problems which makes that whole “content is king” still questionable. Maybe it's because the real king is the marketplace of millions of content consumers.
Profits Per Employee Increase
Published September 10, 2015
The nearly $15,000 profit per employee of 2000 may not be in the cards for the US commercial printing business any time soon, but it looks like this measure is headed to its second best performance since the end of the recession. Using the latest data for the second quarter of 2015, and adding the previous three quarters to create a full year, profits per employee seem to be headed to $7,700, a thousand dollars more than the level of 2014.
Improvement in Industry Shipments, Profits Improvement Elusive
Published September 9, 2015
The 4-quarter moving total of inflation-adjusted US commercial printing shipments have been increasing, but unfortunately profits have not. Q2-2015 four-quarter shipments are up +2.3%, but profits are unfortunately down for the last four quarters -10.8%.
Dr. Joe Recommends: CMO Survey, What's Happened with China's Currency, Canada's Economy Slips into Recession
Published September 4, 2015
Dr Joe Webb comments on potpourri of news items: CMO Survey, What's Happened with China's Currency, Canada's Economy Slips into Recession
Latest Printing Shipments Reflect Rebound
Published September 3, 2015
July's inflation-adjusted US commercial printing shipments continued to outshine prior year shipment levels. This was the best July since 2008 on a current dollar basis and since 2010 on an inflation-adjusted basis. On average, monthly industry shipments have been about $200 million higher than the year before. They are also tracking closer to GDP growth rates, a feat the industry has not done for almost two decades.
Recovery Indicators Mixed with Slight Downward Bias; Sluggish Economy Remains
Published September 2, 2015
Four of the six recovery indicators fell last month, but the non-manufacturing new orders indicator remained very strong. World markets had a rocky month, and the NASDAQ fell -7% since the last indicators.
US Commercial Printing Shipments Up for 14 Consecutive Months
Published September 2, 2015
US commercial printing shipments were nearly $7.04 billion in July, a $392 million increase (+4.9%) on a current dollar basis compared to 2014. This was the strongest July since 2008.
Reports that Captured Dr. Joe's Attention
Published August 27, 2015
Recent reports that caught Dr. Joe's Attention: GE's Employment Review System Has Left to Pursue Other Interests; Our Toolbox is Empty: Maybe Hitting it With a Rock Will Work; There's Nothing to See Here in Venezuela... Please Move On..; Quantitative Zero Results
Q2 GDP Revised Up, Bigger Rebound from Q1... But What's Ahead?
Published August 27, 2015
The first report of Q2-2015 real GDP was +2.3%, and now it's been raised to +3.7%, well ahead of forecaster expectations. On a longer-term year-to-year basis, the growth rate is +2.5%, still almost a full percentage point below post-WW2 average.
Longer term rate +2.5%. The effects of inventory increases is still a major factor in the growth, but there were other positives in the report implying that Q2 was broadly better than originally thought. There are concerns among professional forecasters that the inventory buildup will result in slower growth as those stockpiles are reduced. Considering that two thirds of the third quarter is almost complete, we know that international trade is being disrupted by currency and solvency issues in China and other countries. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta GDPNow estimates that third quarter GDP will be at +1.4%. Please also note a recent chart where we showed important key indicators that have yet to surpass their recession levels from Q4-2007.
UK's Royal Post Effectiveness of Mail Reports
Published August 27, 2015
There are many resources to use that support the contention that direct mail is a highly effective medium. Some of the research indicates that personal mail makes people feel more valuable. As odd as that may seem, that's been the approach of many mail proponents.
Dr. Joe: News Corp CEO Whining or Leading, Global Economic Mess is Becoming a Quagmire
Published August 24, 2015
The News Corp CEO says that social media companies are responsible for the 'unnatural act' of redistributing content. The company that overpaid for MySpace, failed in social media, repeats the fears of copiers and VCRs from decades ago. We found out that Amazon is a great company and a horrible employer in a story perfect for cross media. Central banks play the devaluation game and say that they were manipulated into doing it. Sure, blame Kazakhstan. How can making something float cause it to sink? Dr. Joe explains it all.
Per Capita Commercial Printing Shipments Stabilize; Forecast Models Project Levels to Continue
Published August 20, 2015
The per capita value of US commercial printing shipments has stabilized at nearly $270, and the recent change in the direction of shipments in the last year or so has changed the forecasts. Forecast models place heavy weight on recent history, and that fact has changed the forecast for 2020 to remain at current levels. It was not long ago that the models forecast 2020 consumption at near zero, an unlikely outcome, but one worth pondering. Will shipments stay at these levels? That's unlikely, too, as media formats and loyalties are still changing.
Key Indicators that Have Not Improved Since the Recession and Recovery
Published August 14, 2015
There are numerous data series that explain that the economy has never recovered from the recession. These are not obscure data series, but mainstream ones. Gross Domestic Product should be the standard for determining the status of an economy (thick blue line). Movements in GDP should be confirmed by other measures. This week's chart uses the start of the recession, December 2007, as the base, which is 100.
Dr Joe: Industry Sales Per Employee Near Historical Highs, Employment in Printing and Content Creation, The Overall Economy
Published August 10, 2015
Increasing printing shipments could give him a new name of “Dr. Boom” rather than his old doomish monicker. Employment is up in advertising and public relations, yet again. Dr. Joe swirls in some comments about the overall economy and explains his role in a new management program to be unveiled at Graph Expo.
US Commercial Printing Shipments +3.5% for First Half of 2015, Exceeding Real GDP Growth
Published August 6, 2015
US commercial printing shipments are up about +3.5% for January to June compared to the same period in 2014. The industry has been restructuring, as employment continues to decline. Usually employment and shipment levels move together in a tight range if not almost in lockstep.
World Chaos? Not in the Five Recovery Indicators that Improved Since Last Month
Published August 5, 2015
Best June US Commercial Printing Shipments Since 2010, +5.3% vs. 2014
Published August 4, 2015
Q2 GDP +2.3%, Below Economist Expectations
Published July 30, 2015
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the report of 2015's second quarter GDP. At +2.3%, it was below expectations of financial forecasters who were looking for +2.6%. This advance report of GDP was in line with the GDPNow estimate of the Atlanta Federal Reserve which was at +2.4%.
Inflation Multipliers Updated
Published July 30, 2015
Inflation is supposedly tame, but if you're making comparisons of current year financial data to prior years, you still need to adjust for the years when inflation was not. The chart was created from Consumer Price Index data for each of the years specified. When looking at your company history, multiply your data for each year by the multiplier specified. This will give you an approximation for the effects of inflation on your business, and make your historical analysis, especially in the process of budgeting, to be more realistic. Adjusting your data, even in periods of claimed low inflation, creates a sense of more urgent action. Inflation means that to stay at the same level you actually need more dollars. Staying the same is actually a cut.
Dr Joe Recommends that You Meet FRED
Published July 30, 2015
In the past I have recommended a site maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank that provides easy access to economic data. The site has been expanded and the software has improved greatly.
Changes in Employment and Establishments of Top 5 States Show Effects of Printing Consolidation
Published July 27, 2015
How Have Big Metro Area Printing Establishments Fared in the Recovery?
Published July 24, 2015
Dr Joe took a look at how the number of commercial printing establishments in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, DC, and San Francisco metropolitan areas has changed since 2010.
Year-to-Year Real Retail Sales Peaked in January, and Are Weaker Since
Published July 23, 2015
June retail sales adjusted for inflation fell -0.6% compared to May. Month-to-month changes are somewhat volatile, so it's better to look at the comparisons to the prior year. The chart shows that June retail sales were +1.2% compared to last year, the worst comparison since March 2014. There are signs that the economy is slowing again. In the first quarter, real retail sales were +2.6% compared to the prior year, but this second quarter is only +1.6%. The economy always has conflicting positive and negative data, but this downturn in a key sector of the economy is likely to raise some eyebrows among economists and policymakers.
Is Small Business Slowing Down Again?
Published July 22, 2015
The NFIB Small Business Index was released this week, “The weakness was substantial across the board, showing no signs of a growth spurt in the near future,” according to Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist. “Declines in spending plans accounted for 30 percent of the Index decline, and weaker expectations for real sales and business conditions another 20 percent. The deterioration in earnings trends accounted for about a quarter of the decline.”
How Have Big Metro Area Printing Establishments Fared in the Recovery?
Published July 17, 2015
May US Commercial Printing Shipments +2.3%; 11 Months of Increases Compared to Prior Year
Published July 10, 2015
Inflation-adjusted US Commercial Printing Shipments Better than 2014
Published July 10, 2015
Commercial printing shipments have been much higher than they are in today's market, but the bounce off the lows of 2014 this year have been notable. The comparisons toward the end of 2015 will be harder to top since the industry started to show this bounceback at the end of 2014. The transformation of commercial printing businesses has been an arduous one, with volume declines of many mainstream products, but a rise in specialty applications. Those new applications are often based in digital printing, such as wide format specialties. There's also a new generation of print business managers who are not burdened by the myopia of history, where print was paramount. These executives and owners have grown up with computers and gadgets and have a better sense of print's new role in media communications
Recovery Indicators Slip to Downside; Unemployment Report Great on the Outside, Hollow in the Middle
Published July 6, 2015
Q1-2015 GDP Revised to "Less Bad" -0.2%; Q2 GDP in 2% Range
Published June 25, 2015
Interest Rates Have Rising Since the End of 2011
Published June 25, 2015
We all know how the markets seem to panic when the Fed hints that rates will be rising soon, but they already have. That is, the markets have been pushing up the inflation-adjusted 10-year US Treasury since September 2011 by 420 basis points (4.2 percentage points). The rate is now the highest since June 2010, at 2.33%. This measure can be volatile because of the inflation adjustment. We used the year-to-year inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index for that reason. There are Fed governors who believe that they have great latitude to be patient with a rise in inflation since their target of +2% annual inflation has not been met. This means that they believe they have a cushion of “banked” uncreated inflation that they can use up before they move aggressively. Whatever the case, a 25 basis point rise in short term rates is not much, as they might actually be catching up to the marketplace that has already moved and the Fed is already lagging well behind it. They miss an important point. The CPI does not measure inflation in a practical way. If wages are stagnant (though a little better lately), a “mild” 2% rise can be a burden. Median household income is still 4% lower than its peak just after the recession started. A 2% rise in inflation plus the 4% lower income is a 6% difference. That's something that's rarely mentioned in the business press.
Fed Lowers GDP Outlook, Likely to Raise Rates by the End of 2015
Published June 18, 2015
Dr. Joe Recommends: Fed and Professional Forecasts
Published June 18, 2015
The Fed's downward revisions to their GDP forecasts brings their estimates in line with an economy running in the general range of +2.25%. But sometimes we need a forecast in a hurry, and that needs credibility beyond that of yours truly.
Ad Agency Revenues Still on the Rise, Up 40% Since Start of Recovery
Published June 18, 2015
Since the start of the recovery all the way back in mid-2009, advertising agency revenues have increased by +$32 billion, +40% since that time. There are many economic indicators that have never recovered (such as full time jobs) but ad agency revenues have blown through the pre-recession high of $91 billion and is now running at the rate of $112 billion annually. The agencies have had this performance because they are immersed in the media upheaval, riding and stoking the changes in communications formats on behalf of their clients. Wages have followed this shift in media, and has been documented by us before. The average public relations pay is about $10,000 more than the averaged of all agency wages. Book publishing industry revenues have stabilized, and trends of newspaper and periodical publishing revenues are still down, but at a lesser rate.
Latest Employment Data in Printing and Content Creation Markets
Published June 11, 2015
In spite of recent strength in US commercial printing industry shipments, employment is still on a downward path. The industry seems to becoming more efficient, somewhat from better management, and somewhat from consolidation as weak establishments are aborbed or exit the market. Compared to April, however, the Bureau of Labor statistics estimates that employment increased by about 600, which is common compared for May in recent years. The April public relations employment was very strong compared to the prior year and is up +8.8%. When PR employment is excluded from ad agency employment, the number of employees in agencies is still up +2.1%. The employment data have always reflected the changes in the media market as well as the strength in the economy. Though the economy is slow, advertising agencies have reinvented themselves and are very active in social media and digital media production.
Dr. Joe Recommends: The 2015 Magazine Media Factbook
Published June 11, 2015
I've used the Magazine Publishers Association Factbook for almost 30 years. Now it's the Magazine Media Factbook. It is packed with sunny data about magazine readership that are almost all positive about magazines. It's worth getting, and is a free download.
Revised Commerce Department Data Sends Forecasts in Opposite Directions: Will US Printing in 2020 be $90 Billion or $27 Billion?
Published June 10, 2015
Data for the end of 2012 and the beginning of 2013 were revised to a slight rise in shipments when the original data showed a steady and significant decline. That period of mild increase was followed by a period of decline that was smaller in magnitude than originally reported.
10 of 11 Months of Increased Inflation-Adjusted US Commercial Printing Shipments
Published June 4, 2015
This chart shows how the US commercial printing shipments have been better compared to the prior year for the last 11 months of reporting by the Commerce Department. What's it mean? We're still averaging $400 million per month less than a similar period in 2010-2011, and we're well below the levels of ten years ago by about -$2.8 billion per month. The recent stability may be the result of several factors. First, weak companies are gone as a result of closures and consoPrinting Shipments Rising, Best April Since 2010lidations, leaving companies that know what modern print users need. Second, there has been a generational change in management to owners and executives who are more comfortable with digital technology because they have always used it, growing up with cell phones, video games, and computers everywhere. Third, the big targets for displacement by digital media have been pulverized, and what remains are specialties and applications more appropriate to a multichannel integrated media marketplace. Fourth, there a more companies using business development techniques (tell us about your target audience and how we can make your digital initiatives more effective) rather than old sales techniques (would you like to see my equipment list?). Then again, it could be the calm before another storm. New data networks are on their way, such as 5G, where two hour movies can be downloaded in six seconds rather than six minutes. Print has a good story to tell, but please, don't make it an old story. Print needs to be fresh and new. The market may be stable now, so use this time well to get ready for the market ahead.
Recovery Indicators Have a Good Month
Published June 3, 2015
Is Q1's Negative GDP Something to Worry About? Probably Not... But on the Other Hand...
Published June 2, 2015
US Commercial Printing Shipments Up for Eleventh Month
Published June 2, 2015
Commerce Department Revises US Commercial Printing Shipments Data: Revises Shipments Higher for 2013 and 2014
Published June 2, 2015
Every May, the US Department of Commerce issues “benchmark” revisions to the manufacturing shipments data it reports. Every month, the shipments report is used by economists and analysts at Government agencies, such as the Treasury Department, but also by banks, businesses, and others, to identify strong and weak areas of the economy, and to forecast future economic conditions. The reports are based on a combination of actual and estimated data from economic models.
A Look at the 23 Million US "Microbusinesses," Increasing 3x the Rate of Population Growth
Published May 28, 2015
Microbusinesses Increasing as a Percentage of the Workforce
Published May 28, 2015
The Commerce Department released its “Nonemployer Statistics” data for 2013, showing that these businesses increased to 23 million since 2012, and by 30%, three times the rate of population growth, since 2002. Let's call them “microbusinesses.” They are now more than one in seven of the workforce.
Dr. Joe Recommends: Mary Meeker's Annual Internet Presentation
Published May 28, 2015
This year Mary Meeker presented her always interesting annual review at the Code conference, a “who's who” and “who matters (today)” in California.
Revised Annual US Commercial Printing Shipments Show Stability in Recent Years
Published May 21, 2015
Last week, the US Department of Commerce released its annual revisions to manufacturing shipments. Printing shipments estimates were increased a total of approximately $10 billion combined for 2013 and 2014. The data softened the decline in 2013 shipments by a considerable margin and also reaffirmed the recent rise in printing shipments over the last ten months. While shipments in 2014 were still below 2013 on an inflation-adjusted basis, the pattern of the last few years shows a decline in shipments that is more muted than the Commerce Department originally reported. Our advice is the same: this is breathing room that can be used for restructuring of print businesses with forward-looking strategies that can take advantage of the next waves of communications technologies, while implementing sales and marketing processes that are appropriate for the times ahead.
Japanese Translation of “This Point Forward” by Dr. Joe Webb and Richard Romano is Now Available from JAGAT
Published May 20, 2015
NAICS 323 US Commercial Printing Establishments
Published May 14, 2015
These data about US commercial printing establishments are from the newly released 2013 County Business Patterns published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. At the turn of this century, there were nearly 38,000 establishments engaged in commercial printing and services; in 2013 there were nearly 27,000. These data do not include inplant printing departments or packaging, but do include label printers and trade services. An establishment is a separate location in a practical definition, and a firm can own more than one establishment. The number of establishments is in response to the size, scope, and nature of overall print demand, but there are other factors.
Latest Analysis of Employment and Retail Sales Data
Published May 14, 2015
Dr Joe. digs into the last 2015 GDP trends, last Friday's overall unemployment report, and US commercial printing employment.
First Quarter US Commercial Printing Shipments Up +3.5% Versus 2014
Published May 8, 2015
The last ten months of US commercial printing shipments have increased +3% compared to the same months of the prior years. For the first calendar quarter, shipments are up +3.5% compared to the same quarter of 2014. There has not been this kind of growth for about ten years. Please note, however, that the Commerce Department is revising at least three years of historical data next week; it's not possible to determine how the data will change. Assuming the pattern of these data remain the same, it's not a long term bottoming of the shipment level that will turn upward again. The march of digital technologies that offer alternatives to print will continue (read what 5G networks will bring in 2020, for example). It's more likely a pause that should be used to reposition well-running print businesses for the future, consider investing in capabilities and businesses that will take advantage of the new communications innovations ahead, and develop alliances with others whose talents will be needed to do so. This might be 2005-2007 playing out again for us. If your business is growing, don't rest on your laurels. Appreciate the flexibility your business has to prepare for the future and use the time wisely. Never hunker down and wait for things to play out.
How much would an iPhone have cost in 1991?
Published May 8, 2015
Based on the computer technologies of the time, an iPhone in 1991 would have cost $3.5 million. The memory alone is a cost marvel. In 1991, 1GB of flash memory was $45,000. Today, it's 55 cents. An iPhone with 32GB has more than $1.4 million of 1991 memory in it.
March Commercial Printing Shipments +4.8%; Ten Months of +3% Growth
Published May 6, 2015
Recovery Indicators Mainly Flat, but Small Business Might be Having Problems
Published May 5, 2015
Q1-2015 GDP Disappoints at +0.2%; Will We Hear the “R” Word Soon?
Published April 30, 2015
The GDP estimate of Q1-2015 growth was at +0.2% when consensus was +1.0%. The estimate will be revised at the end of each of the next two months. That consensus estimate of professional economists has been revised down regularly since the beginning of the year, with many of the original estimates at +3% or higher.
Payroll per Employee for Commercial Printing and Content Creation Businesses
Published April 30, 2015
The 2013 County Business Patterns report was just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, one of the most valuable of all government economic reports. The data are based on Social Security tax filings made by employers. In this manner, the BLS can count the number of business establishments and the number of employees of those establishments with great accuracy from analysis from the mandatory filings of Form 941, submitted with company payroll taxes. As the data show, content creation businesses have much higher per employee annual salaries. This makes these industries very attractive to new employees, especially those starting their careers. The most interesting to me is the rise in public relations agencies. In the late 1980s, the payroll for ad agency workers was about one-third more than public relations. In 2005, they were about the same. In these 2013 data, PR employees are paid about one-eighth more.
Dr. Joe Recommends: Goldman Sachs “Two-Speed Economy” Report
Published April 30, 2015
Under the Radar: The Generational Change in Print Business Leadership
Published April 23, 2015
Printing Prices Compared to General Inflation
Published April 23, 2015
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes many indexes of inflation, the best known of which is the Consumer Price Index. The BLS also publishes hundreds of other indexes in the Producer Price Index (PPI) series that track price changes in industries, products, and commodities. This week's chart shows the year-to-year change in CPI (orange line) and the PPI for printing (blue line) on a monthly basis for a little more than ten years. For most of that period, printing prices have lagged consumer prices, often by wide margins. Since December 2004, printing prices are up +14% while consumer prices are up +27%. That is, printing prices are increasing at about half the rate of consumer prices. Or, looked at differently, printing prices are about -10% less than the change in consumer prices: print is getting cheaper every day. But print owners and their workers cannot spend printing dollars when they go to the supermarket; they have to make up for the 10% shortfall in prices somehow. This is difficult since many of the prices printers need to pay for wages and materials more closely follow consumer prices. It's a double-edged problem: lower revenues, higher costs. Profit leaders have figured out how to survive in this environment as they still stand out from their peers. But these double-edged pressures have caused weak companies to leave or offer themselves as consolidation candidates.
Dr. Joe Recommends: Janet Yellen's Labor Market Dashboard
Published April 17, 2015
Bloomberg.com has created a web page that summarizes labor market data in one convenient place. In Congressional testimony and in public discussions, Dr. Yellen has stated that she watches a “dashboard” of labor market indicators. I'm of the age that the mention of “dashboard” is a reminder of the Meat Loaf hit of the 1970s.
NFIB Small Business Index Falls
Published April 16, 2015
The monthly NFIB Small Business Index took a step back after it nearly reached the pre-recession high. The chart shows that high of a few years ago as a green line. The index fell almost to the bottom of the 2003 recession level. For a few years the Index seemed range-bound between that recession and the lows of the recession of the early 1990s (the two red lines). This particular survey had all ten elements of its index fall, which is highly unusual. The Index bears watching as there are very few data series that follow small business activity.
Q1-2015 GDP Might be Negative, Or Close to It
Published April 15, 2015
Recovery Indicators Mixed (Again... Yawwwwwwn...)
Published April 9, 2015
US Commercial Printing Shipments Have Strong February, +5.2%
Published April 9, 2015
March US Commercial Printing Employment Rises in Line with Seasonal Patterns
Published April 9, 2015
Number of Employees per US Commercial Printing Establishment
Published April 9, 2015
The average number of employees in commercial printing establishments has declined over the years for many reasons. Among large printers, volumes of magazines, catalogs, inserts, and other long run length products produced on web offset and gravure presses have declined, leading to plant closures and consolidations. Desktop publishing shifted work to graphic designers, publishers, and other content creators. That, combined with direct-to-plate and digital printing have nearly eliminated the need for prepress departments. Presses require less staffing than older ones. In smaller printers, copies and digital printers have reduced the need for press operators. Other technologies, such as search engines, e-commerce, advances in administrative software have reduced employment in other functions. Even voice mail, cell phones, and e-mail have gradually reduced the number of staff required to run a printing business.
Real Interest Rates are Rising, Thanks to Low Inflation
Published March 26, 2015
The chart shows one of the rates for Treasury securities called the “constant maturity rate,” used to set rates for instruments like mortgages. The line in the chart is that monthly rate less the year-to-year change in the Consumer Price Index for that month. The Fed has worked hard to keep their interest rates below inflation to stimulate the economy, as well as make housing prices rise so that fewer mortgages were “under water.” It hasn't worked that well, but that's a different topic for a different day. But with all of the worries about the Fed raising rates, the combination of their inertia and changes in the inflation rate may be producing what they've wanted: a Seinfeldian case of “nothing” becoming something. At the end of 2011 the real rate in the chart was -3%, and the last observation in the chart is about +1.5%, a 450 basis point move. For about three years, the CPI has been below the Fed's target of 2%, and in December and January it was negative. February CPI was just reported as an annualized 2.4%, so this rate rise may disappear soon
Dr. Joe on the Sales Funnel
Published March 26, 2015
There's a lot to be said for the funnel idea because it describes the sales process, creating order out of many sales prospects and suspects matching their needs, interests, and motivations with your sales offerings. But it tends impose the structure of an orderly assembly-line manufacturing process into sales management, and inadvertently creates the impression that sales and marketing are simple and unchaotic.
2014 US Commercial Printing Industry Profits Fall by -27% Compared to 2013
Published March 24, 2015
While The World Listens for a Rate Hike News, the Fed Lowers Their GDP Forecasts
Published March 19, 2015
On Wednesday, March 18, the Feb removed the word “patient” from the announcement of a potential rate hike, but as the Washington Post explained “Well, the Fed really said that it's going to be more patient than it was before, even if it's not officially so. In other words, it could hike rates at any time starting in June, but it's less likely to do so. And even when lift off does happen, it'll probably happen slower than people thought it would.” There you have it: Janet Yellen does a great Alan Greenspan impression. No one knows what he meant but everyone knows what he said. Dr. Yellen also explained that while the Fed is no longer in the act of quantitative easing, they are replacing all of their holdings as they mature. What got less coverage is that the Fed lowered their forecasts of GDP. For 2015 and 2016 they lowered their prior forecasts by three-tenths of a percentage point. Each tenth is about $150 billion. So their forecast was reduced by $450 billion, or the equivalent of six commercial printing industries. Such data analogies can make one's head spin.
Ad Agency Revenues Have Strong 2014, Up +4.3%; Books and Specialty Publishing Revenues Continue Rebound From 2013 Bottom
Published March 18, 2015
Public Relations Employment Continues to Shine; Magazine Employment Continues to Dip
Published March 18, 2015
The Labor Market is Very Dynamic
Published March 12, 2015
Don't let four jagged lines on a chart confuse you, because there's good news hidden inside. The labor market is very dynamic, more dynamic than commonly understood. About 2% of the workforce quits jobs every month, and between 1.5%-2% separate from their positions in other ways because their projects are completed, fired for cause, or downsizings. About 3% of the workforce is hired in different positions every month. What's made the improvement in total employment this past year is the increase in job openings (the blue line in the chart). Note that it has a higher upward slope than the other lines. The number of job openings is now around 5 million per month, more than double that when the recovery started in mid-2009. The bottom line, in red, is “quits.” Most workers do not quit their jobs unless they have something better lined up. That line has a general upward slope, and it is common for this to increase as economies improve and workers feel more comfortable changing positions. Though not population-adjusted, the lines are definitely moving in positive directions, with job openings as the most encouraging of them. What's this mean to printers? Never consider your business contacts in companies as “safe.” As economies improve, job changing increases. Be sure to have multiple engaged contacts in your most important clients. Also, be sure your key employees are kept “gruntled” because disgruntled key employees can be valuable elsewhere.
Unemployment Report Better, But Progress Slower than it Implies
Published March 11, 2015
US Commercial Printing Industry has Strong January
Published March 5, 2015
Current Dollar GDP and NAICS 323 US Commercial Printing Shipments
Published March 5, 2015
There is a general (and natural) assumption that commercial printing and the economy as measured by GDP move together. The chart below shows the year-to-year percentage change of the two data series, GDP in red and printing in blue. The chart tracks current dollars and are not adjusted for inflation. Except for a brief period from the second quarter of 1995 through the first quarter of 1996, shipments have lagged GDP growth. What was special about that period? The Internet bubble was beginning, and in September 1995, Netscape had its initial public offering. For those four quarters, commercial printing was an average of 4.5 percentage points better than GDP growth. Prior to that, commercial printing had lagged GDP during a period of slow economic growth. Since Q2-1996, the difference between nominal, unadjusted GDP and commercial printing has been 5 percentage points. The last two quarters of 2014 commercial printing had positive growth compared to the prior year, but still lagged GDP by -1.6 percentage points.
Recovery Indicators NASDAQ Up Strongly, Others Pull Back Slightly; Q4-2014 Real GDP Reduced to +2.2%
Published March 4, 2015
St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base (The Fed's Balance Sheet)
Published February 26, 2015
The Fed stopped Quantitative Easing a while ago, and the value of its balance sheet fluctuates around the $4 trillion level. As their holdings mature, their aggressive position in the bond market will slowly unwind. Or will it? The Fed is likely to decide to re-invest proceeds in more bonds and obligations, replacing the matured debt with new ones, but not adding to their overall position unless there is a crisis again. Until their first moves where they doubled their balance sheet quickly, from $800 billion to $1.6 trillion, this measure of the money supply moved steadily at about a 6% annual rate, sometimes a little more, sometimes a little less, about half equal to economic growth and the other half to inflation. Whether or not the Fed will reduce its balance sheet or not is still a question in my mind. They could just hold steady, and let inflation and growth catch up to them, which will take quite some time, but not scare the markets. But something always happens that's not according to plan, and the Fed will be interesting to watch as they move from this unchartered territory to another.
US Commercial Printing Forecast to 2020; What is the Right Role for Forecasting Models?
Published February 22, 2015
Are the Stock Indexes Really at All-Time Highs? Does It Matter?
Published February 21, 2015
Printing Industry Capital Investment, 2003 to 2013
Published February 20, 2015
The US Department of Commerce issued their latest report about capital investment spending in 2013, and we've written about it in a recent blogpost. As part of our analysis, we applied the rate of investment to industry shipments and arrived at the chart below. It shows two rather distinct periods, 2003 to 2007, where capital investment was not as good as the late 1990s, but recovered and stabilized after the first negative wave of digital media. Some of this was replacement of late 1990s equipment that had come off lease. Then there's the 2008 credit crisis and recovery. Capital investment declined in volume as industry shipments fell from the introduction of social media, new devices, and cheaper and faster communications. But the rate of capital investment is slowly rising, even though shipments are shrinking, and the number of plants is contracting. The survivors tend to be healthier establishments, who survived the downturns, and are likely making better investment decisions.
Industry Capital Investment Rate Increasing Since Recession
Published February 19, 2015
Printing Employment Data Revised Up in 2014
Published February 12, 2015
Every February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) updates employment data for the prior year and beyond. This year, the revisions to printing industry employment went back to April 2013. When the BLS calculates employment, especially for industries, it uses estimation methods because actual data are not readily available. That actual data are derived from the Social Security tax filings of employers. In this case, the BLS was underreporting employment, especially in mid-2014. Employment data are used as an input into Commerce Department data for the estimation of industry shipments. Those new employment data, though not released publicly, were probably used in recent months shipment calculations when 2014 shipments began to have favorable comparisons to 2013. It is possible, based on these data, that 2014 industry shipments will be revised up in the annual mid-May shipment revision report. An educated guess would put the change at approximately $1 billion, bringing shipments from +0.2% in current dollars to about +1.5%, or flat with 2013 after adjusting for inflation. Nonetheless, employment in December 2014 was less than December 2013. As can be seen in the chart, January 2015 employment is reported as dropping considerably. January and February tend to be slow months, and March can be one of the best. February employment may rise in anticipation.
2014 Printing Employment Revised to Slower Decrease; US Employment Improves Again
Published February 11, 2015
Recovery Indicators
Published February 5, 2015
Recovery indicators in manufacturing continued to retreat in the ISM manufacturing report, in concert with news earlier this week from the Commerce Department that showed five months consecutive decline for factory orders. Non-manufacturing orders rose slightly, but imports continued to pull back. The ISM new orders for manufacturing and non-manufacturing are still above 50, which indicates future growth, but at a slower rate. The NASDAQ index was up in the last month, but is still lower than it was two months ago. Trading has been choppy, which sometimes is indicative of a developing turning point. The one bright spot in the report is a measure of small business, proprietors income, upbeat news in an otherwise tough month.
Manufacturing Indicators Retreat; Small Business Moves Forward
Published February 4, 2015
2014 US Commercial Printing Rebounds from Poor First Half with Positive Third and Fourth Quarters
Published February 4, 2015
Q4-2014 GDP +2.6%, Weaker than Expectations, Yet Weaker in the Details
Published January 30, 2015
Job Openings Steadily Improving but Have More to Go
Published January 30, 2015
The following charts show how job openings have been on a steady rise since the beginning of the recovery in mid-2009, and have now passed the recent peak when the recession began at the end of 2007. But that was a long time ago, and population has grown since that time. The 2000s have a long way to go to catch up with population-adjusted job openings since the turn of the century.
Industry Churn: How Our Industry Adjusts and Renews Itself, by the Numbers
Published January 26, 2015
Latest Inflation Multipliers
Published January 22, 2015
For those who have been following along, the chart below is the latest update for budget planning. It's always a benefit to understand your sales and costs in historical perspective. Without adjusting for inflation, you could be working on assumption of trends and relationships that are untrue. Make it “real.”
Dr. Joe Finds Rare Species: A Printer at the Triangle American Marketing Association Luncheon
Published January 21, 2015
Latest Inflation Multipliers: What "Gone With the Wind" and"Avatar" Teach Us About Money
Published January 20, 2015
Since 2004, USPS Prices +38%, Consumer Prices +27%, Printing Prices +13%, Computers -44%, Wireless Communications -37%; What's It All Mean?
Published January 19, 2015
Full Time Employment Still Not Recovered
Published January 15, 2015
The number of workers with full time jobs has still not exceeded levels at the start of the recession about seven years ago. This is despite continuous population growth and higher GDP levels for 21 of the last 22 quarters. Of last year's +2.2 million increase in employment, about 970,000 were part time positions. Many part time positions are by choice of the employee, an unknown number may be from distortions resulting from the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, and others are from uneven economic conditions and low expectations about future business conditions. There is some employment optimism in recent surveys of the National Federation of Independent Business and both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys of the Institute for Supply Management.
Printing Employment Falls; Agency Employment Up; National Employment Rate Improves to 5.6%
Published January 13, 2015
Federal Debt as Percentage of GDP Over 100%
Published January 8, 2015
Economic press coverage of the Federal budget is usually limited to the annual deficit, the shortfall of tax and fee collections versus spending. While the deficit as a percentage of GDP is down to about -4% from 2009 when it was more than -9%, the deficits do accumulate. Now, the total debt of the US exceeds GDP. This is likely to keep political pressure on the Fed to keep rates down. It also means that a 1 percentage point rise in interest rates would cost $180 billion and can double the annual deficit. But the Fed may not be able to increase interest rates when they want to no how hard they might try. International rates, such as those in Germany, have recently been below 0.5% for the 10 year bond. US rates are comparatively high in the 2% range, and any push upward by the Fed would probably be met by arbitrage actions in the other direction.
January to November 2014 Printing Shipments Nearly Even with 2013
Published January 7, 2015
Recovery Indicators Slammed After Upbeat Q3 GDP Revision
Published January 7, 2015
Profits Retreat in Q3
Published December 18, 2014
Profits Still Below $4 Billion on Annual Basis
Published December 18, 2014
Four billion dollars was the approximate bottom of 2005's inflation adjusted annual profits. The four-quarter total annual profits have had a difficult time breaking through that level for more than eight years.
Ad Agency Revenues Rise While Publishing Revenues are Not
Published December 16, 2014
Inflation-adjusted Sales of S&P 500 Firms Still Below Pre-Recession Levels
Published December 11, 2014
GDP may say that the recession ended in June 2009, but there are still data series that have not yet confirmed that five years later. Total employment is one of them, as is median household income, but so is the inflation-adjusted sales of companies in the S&P 500. Even though the companies in the S&P 500 index have revenues lower than the peak of June 2008, the S&P 500 stock index is getting closer to all-time high levels of Spring 2000 (The Dow Jones average already is, the Russell 2000 has been for a while, but the NASDAQ is still off by about 15%). These sales of 500 of the world's best companies have not kept up with real GDP growth since the recession ended (about 2% per year). Some economists believe that this is an indication that GDP data should be viewed with great suspicion, and that there has yet to be a true recovery.
China's GDP is Now Largest in the World: But What Does that Mean?
Published December 10, 2014
Public Relations Employment Strong, Printing Employment Trend Flattens
Published December 9, 2014
June to October US Commercial Printing Shipments Up +$1 Billion Versus 2013
Published December 5, 2014
Revised GDP Pushed Higher, But Did Not Change Longer Range Growth Rate
Published December 4, 2014
Third quarter GDP was revised from +3.5% to +3.9%, but the change was mainly in net inventories, and did little to affect the assessment of underlying and longer range growth compared to the prior year of about +2.43%. Inventories have been bouncing around a bit over recent quarters and are running a little higher than they should be, indicating that some minor correction is forthcoming, especially if non-US economies are slowing down.
Recovery Indicators Post Another Good Month
Published December 3, 2014
USPS' October, More EDDM News, and Other Items
Published December 3, 2014
Dr. Joe's Random Thoughts
Published November 20, 2014
Canada Per Capita Commercial Printing 1992-2014
Published November 14, 2014
Using printing shipments and population data from Statistics Canada, we have prepared this chart that shows per capita shipments of commercial printing in Canada current dollars and Canada inflation-adjusted dollars.
September Commercial Printing Shipments +3.9%; Employment Data Reflect Shift in Media Use
Published November 10, 2014
Upbeat Indicators and Employment Reports
Published November 10, 2014
Can We Trust the Economic Data We Get?
Published October 17, 2014
NFIB Small Business Index Retreats Slightly, But is Still on Path of Slow Uptrend
Published October 16, 2014
Labor Force Participation Rate and Employment-Population Ratio Below 1980 Levels
Published October 9, 2014
What's made the economic recovery since June 2009 so intriguing has not been its below-history GDP growth rate, but also the deterioration in key measures of employment. The labor force participation rate has been declining as idled workers decide not to return to the workforce.
Unemployment Rate Falls to 5.9%; Magazine Employment Falls Below 100,000
Published October 6, 2014
August US Commercial Printing Shipments Down -1% Compared to 2013
Published October 6, 2014
Four Recovery Indicators Pull Back
Published October 6, 2014
The Stronger Dollar... or Is It?
Published October 2, 2014
There's been a lot of interest in the stronger dollar for many reasons. Some consider it a safe haven during times of global tensions. Others say it's a bounce off a bottom. Still others consider the dollar the least ugly of all the major currencies. But is it really stronger? (Two charts)
Dr. Joe Rambles About the USPS: Playing the Slots, the UPS Store, Casablanca, and Other Mini-rants
Published October 1, 2014
More Dr. Joe Ramblings: Forecasts, Drugstores, Statistics, Buybacks, and BookBooks
Published October 1, 2014
The Fed's quantitative easing is winding down... now what?
Published September 25, 2014
Advertising Agency Revenues Up at Annual Rate of 7% Since Start of Economic Recovery
Published September 25, 2014
The latest data from the Commerce Department's Quarterly Service Survey shows that advertising agency revenues have climbed at the rate of 7% per year since the recovery began after June 2009. The rate of growth exceeds real GDP growth which has been +2.2% on an annual basis since that time. How did they do it? A strong emphasis on digital media strategy and production that's replaced their loss of commissions and fees for broadcast and print advertising. Publishers revenues have not come close to even that lackluster GDP rate. The steep decline for magazines and books is over, for now: they are not growing and the decline in revenues is mild. Newspapers, however, are still in long term decline. Newspaper revenues are about half of what the were in 2004.
Income Statistics Don't Tell the Whole Economic Story
Published September 18, 2014
NFIB Small Business Index Breaks Through Recession Upper Range
Published September 18, 2014
Small business seems to be improving, at least according to the NFIB monthly survey of small business owners. For years, it was usually trapped between two recession bottoms, but it has broken through of three consecutive surveys. It's an encouraging report, but it's not bullish. The NFIB commentary states “More owners still think business conditions will be worse in six months than think they will be better. Few see the current period as a good time to expand. The outlook for improvements in real sales volumes faded. Interest in borrowing continues to remain at record low levels; owners are satisfied with inventories and aren’t planning a lot of investment.” The NFIB is still in the range of a 2+% GDP growth level, but sees not robust small business activity in the near term. Basically, the NFIB report is good news in that conditions are better, but a big positive breakout in activity will remain elusive.
Annualized Inflation-adjusted Profit
Published September 12, 2014
Second quarter US commercial printing profits were $1.13 billion, based on the recent Quarterly Financial Report issued by the Department of Commerce and combined with other Commerce Department and Bureau of Labor Statistics data. This was down -7.5% compared to Q2-2013. For the last four quarters, total profits were $3.67 billion, and that is +20% higher than the equivalent measure a year ago. The Q1 four-quarter moving total was revised down from $4.03 billion to $3.77 billion.
Industry Profits Remain Rangebound but Positive, Show Effects of Consolidation and Market Adaptation
Published September 10, 2014
Positive Reviews for "This Point Forward" by Dr. Joe Webb and Richard Romano Prior to Its Graph Expo Release
Published September 9, 2014
Employment Report Inconsistent with Recent Upbeat Economic Data; Content Creation Jobs Grow
Published September 9, 2014
Recovery Indicators Have a Good Month
Published September 4, 2014
July 2014 Printing Shipments up +2.6%, Two Consecutive Months of Growth
Published September 4, 2014
Sept 4th Key Recovery Indicators
Published September 4, 2014
Dr. Joe's Key Recovery Indicators were started in 2009, and track the monthly ups and downs of the economy in terms that are relevant to small and mid-size businesses.
Global Bond Rates May Make it Hard for the Fed to Affect US Long-Term Rates
Published August 29, 2014
The Fed has been in unchartered territory with its post-2008 actions, and unwinding them may take a bit of creativity. One of their obstacles might be the rates of long term government bonds around the world. The chart below shows the yield of 10-year bonds earlier this week. The rate on US 10-year bonds is more than 4x Japan's and more than 2x Germany's. In an odd situation, US bonds are actually paying less than those of Spain. Global investors looking for yield (pension funds, governments, mutual funds, and others) may thwart Fed actions by finding US funds to be compelling deals on a relative basis. The Fed can usually affect only short term rates, which was one of the reasons they became aggressive in buying long term debt in their Quantitative Easing (QE) actions. Getting yields down for all durations is what made their actions were essentially unprecedented for the US. If they attempt to sell their holdings quickly to raise rates, there might be more buyers than they anticipate, making the action fruitless. It still looks like once the QE buying is done in the next few weeks the Fed will simply let their most of their holdings mature rather than force-feed them to the market. Listen for the word “macroprudential” in the next months. That's how Fed officials are describing the gentle prodding they may have to take to reverse their course. It turns out that some of the Fed members are worried their actions may encounter resistance, so they will resort to some arm-twisting to push banks to act in the manner they want. That hasn't worked well in the past, and it probably won't work well now, but it does add a word to our vocabulary.
First Revision to Q2-2014 GDP is Up, Now Estimated at +4.2%
Published August 28, 2014
Inflation-adjusted Commercial & Industrial Loans Growing
Published August 22, 2014
Commercial and industrial loans took a while to start growing again, almost two years after the recovery started. Loans now total $1.7 trillion, the highest amount in the history of the data series, a little more than 10% of GDP. Overall, they are up about 40% on a current dollar basis since mid-2010.
Dr. Joe Rambles About Marketing, Printed Electronics, Staples, and Retail Sales
Published August 21, 2014
Initial Jobless Claims as a Percentage of the Workforce
Published August 15, 2014
As the number of employed workers has been slowly increasing, and the total workforce has been growing, initial claims for unemployment have been decreasing. The historical perspective is very interesting. This past recession, as bad as it was, did not come close to the levels of the 1970s and 1980s recessions (about 0.6% of the workforce). This most recent recovery is already at the best levels of prior expansions. It doesn't feel “that good”; what's different? The workforce has not kept up with population growth, and about 2 million workers have permanently left the workforce. Also, companies have been cautious in their hiring, meaning, that there are fewer workers to dismiss when businesses of the past needed to. One could look at the chart and say that when this ratio reaches this current level (0.2%) a recession has always followed. Probably not in this case: this ratio may go to unprecedented lower levels because of the workforce exodus and the slow pace of hiring that has made this recovery so different than previous ones. Economist Mark Perry at the American Enterprise Institute discussed the steady rise in job openings at his blog. They are at a 13-year high (not adjusted for population growth), and still less than January 2000 by 800,000.
NFIB Small Business Index Up Slightly
Published August 14, 2014
Latest Recovery Indicators
Published August 8, 2014
Dr. Joe's Key Recovery Indicators were started in 2009, and track the monthly ups and downs of the economy in terms that are relevant to small and mid-size businesses.
Recovery Indicators Mixed, Strong ISM New Orders Data; A Different Look at Employment
Published August 5, 2014
June US Commercial Printing Shipments Rise +4.2%; First Half of 2014 Down -2.2%
Published August 5, 2014
Q2 Advance GDP Strong +4%, "Cancels" Bad Q1
Published July 30, 2014
GDP Data Revised Down for 2011 and 2012, Revised Up for 2013
Published July 30, 2014
EDDM Does Not Mean Elastic Demand Direct Mail
Published July 24, 2014
Dr. Janet & Dr. Joe
Published July 17, 2014
Inflation multipliers have been updated
Published July 17, 2014
NFIB Small Business Index Breaks Through 2003 Recession Bottom for Last Two Months
Published July 10, 2014
The NFIB index has been trapped between the bottom of two recessions, that of the early 1990s and the early 2000s recession bottom. Though the latest report retreated a bit, it's still above the 2003 low. Small business is improving at a very slow pace, but this may finally be a good sign after the very disappointing Q1 GDP report.
Recovery Indicators Improve, Unemployment Report Better
Published July 3, 2014
Recovery Indicators Improve
Published July 3, 2014
The recovery indicators were mainly better this month, with the NASDAQ bouncing around then finishing well, and three of the four ISM indicators increasing. The one that didn’t is still firmly in expansion territory. The original estimate of proprietors’ income was $1,371 then it was reduced to $1,366 billion and now it’s $1,359.
May 2014 Commercial Printing Shipments Raise Concerns
Published July 2, 2014
Q1-2014 GDP Revised Down to -2.9%; Will We Start Hearing the "R" Word?
Published June 25, 2014
Advertising Agency Revenues Still Climbing
Published June 24, 2014
The chart below shows the latest revenue data, on an inflation-adjusted basis, for ad agencies and publishers. Note how ad agency revenues are rising. While there have always been agencies that specialize in certain media, like television, direct mail, or others, the industry is media agnostic in the aggregate. Its job is to increase the positive visibility of its clients and help spur their customers into action.
Ad Agencies Increasing Revenues in the Digital Media Era; Publishers Get Socked
Published June 24, 2014
RetailMeNot's report tells retailers to "stop doing something old," referring to us
Published June 19, 2014
RetailMeNot's report and the infographic are essential reading for print business owners because they offer a media executive's perspective on the nature of print. The executives perceptions of digital media are quite clear: "Seventy-five percent believe that digital consistently delivers better ROI – or "promotional performance" – at a lower cost than non-digital."
Selected Generally “Non-Offset” Products and Services Offered by US Commercial Printers
Published June 18, 2014
What "Other" Services Do Commercial Printers Offer?
Published June 16, 2014
Latest Print and Content Creation Employment Data
Published June 11, 2014
Unemployment Rate Steady at 6.3%; Data Imply Stabilizing Labor Market
Published June 6, 2014
Recovery Indicators Better in a Mixed Kind of Way
Published June 5, 2014
Since June 2009, rate of overall USPS price increases almost 4x the rate of increase in commercial printing prices
Published June 5, 2014
April 2014 US Commercial Printing Shipments $6.71 Billion
Published June 3, 2014
GDP for Q1-2014 revised to -1%; A Sign of Recession or Inventory Correction?
Published May 29, 2014
US Commercial Printers Report Improved Business Conditions in Latest WhatTheyThink Survey
Published May 29, 2014
Though Q1-2014 GDP was -1%, the Year-to-Year Trend Remains in the +2% Range
Published May 29, 2014
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the second revision of Q1-2014 US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), indicating a contraction of the US economy in the quarter. As reported in prior (“laughable and embarassing”) analysis, an inventory buildup in the last two quarters of 2013 distorted the underlying condition of the economy.
Q1-2014 Business Conditions Compared to Q1-2013
Published May 29, 2014
Business conditions were generally good, with more than 33% reporting business increases of 6% or more. About 13% of respondents indicated business decreases of 6% or more
New York Times Internal Document about Their Digital Media Woes Has Lessons for All
Published May 22, 2014
I Was Wrong – Don't Stay Ahead of Your Clients – Stay Ahead of Their Bosses
Published May 15, 2014
Labor Market Net Hiring Turns Negative
Published May 15, 2014
US employment data has many cross-currents: the unemployment rate is down, but the labor participation rate is at 35-year lows. Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics published its JOLTS report, which shows they dynamic factors at play in the labor market. This chart shows the percentage of hires less the number of quits on a year-to-year basis. Note in the chart below the rapid rise in employment as the recession ended and the recovery began, and also how it has narrowed and turned negative in recent months. It's been mainly negative for about 18 months.
Q1-2014 US Commercial Printing Shipments Down -4% Compared to 2013
Published May 8, 2014
March 2013 US commercial printing shipments were down -$148 million (-2.2%) compared to 2012. The first quarter was down -$770 billion (-4%). On an inflation-adjusted basis, shipments were down -$270 million (-5.4%) and down -$1.05 billion (-5.4%) for the quarter.
Recovery Indicators Rebound; Q1-2014 GDP Below 1% but Corrects for Business Inventory Misjudgments
Published May 8, 2014
The recovery indicators rebounded since last month. New orders for manufacturers remained at the same level that indicates growth.
April Printing Employment +1,000; Is It Real?
Published May 7, 2014
Q1-2014 US Commercial Printing Shipments Down -4% Compared to 2013
Published May 7, 2014
April Printing Employment +1,000
Published May 7, 2014
Printing employment in April rose by 1,000 workers. It is always hard to determine if these were actual workers or if the changes were the result of issues with the estimation models of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Production workers were the greatest part of the increase (800).
Recovery Indicators Rebound; Q1-2014 GDP Below 1% but Corrects for Business Inventory Misjudgments
Published May 6, 2014
Table of Latest Inflation Multipliers
Published April 23, 2014
Below is the latest set of multipliers based on the Consumer Price Index. Multiply your historical financial statements by the figures below to adjust data to the CPI for the first quarter of this year.
Latest Inflation Multipliers Q1-2014
Published April 22, 2014
Printing Industry Shipments and Profits
Published April 18, 2014
For the year, profits were $4.34 billion. On an inflation-adjusted basis, that was the highest level of industry profits since 2007. This is despite there being $28 billion less printing shipments, 8,000 fewer printing establishments, and 73,000 fewer employees. It was the best profits per establishment ($173,000) since 2000.
Profits per Print Establishment Best Since 2000; Annual Industry Profits Best Since 2007
Published April 17, 2014
Employment-Population Ratio Still Below Pre-Recession Levels
Published April 10, 2014
One of the measures of the health of the labor market is the comparison of the total population to civilian employment. This measure has yet to approach levels achieved prior to the recession. This measure is important because it follows the growth in population. The number of workers is now nearly what it was at the start of the recession, but population has grown about 6% since that time. In rough terms, this means that the economy is short about 5.6 million jobs.
Employment Report Stays Mixed
Published April 7, 2014
Did You Wish the iPad a Happy Fourth Birthday?
Published April 7, 2014
Employment Changes in the Printing and Content Creation Industries
Published April 7, 2014
February Printing Shipments Down, and Not Just Because It's a Short Month
Published April 3, 2014
Recovery Indicators Still Sideways, but Improve in Last Month
Published April 3, 2014
Preferences and Actions are Vastly Different; The ROI of Print
Published March 24, 2014
Dr. Joe Webb on "Unsquaring the Wheel"
Published March 18, 2014
Dr. Joe Webb talks to Cary Sherburne about "Unsquaring the Wheel", a new venture with RIT that aims to help companies assess their business in 3 main areas: Platform, Customers, and Resources.
Organic Growth is Essential for Healthy Printing Businesses
Published March 17, 2014
Ad Agency Revenues On Steady Rise Higher
Published March 16, 2014
Ad Agency Revenues On Steady Rise Higher
Published March 16, 2014
Since the second quarter of 2007, the first quarter for which we can create four-quarter inflation-adjusted moving totals, ad agency revenues are up more than 13%. Publishing industries have note fared well at all.
Unemployment Report "Little Changed," Media Shift Continues to Reshape Markets
Published March 7, 2014
January 2014 US Printing Shipments Down; Final Shipments Data for 2013
Published March 6, 2014
US Commercial Printing Industry Demographics, 2011 to 2018
Published March 6, 2014
In recent weeks, readers have asked for industry demographics and some prognostication about them. The data tables are below. But first, some information about the data and where they come from. Get a strong coffee.
Recovery Indicators Perk Up, But Two are Still Below Recession Levels
Published March 5, 2014
Q4-2013 GDP Revised Down from +3.2% to +2.4%, Consistent with Last Month's Analysis
Published February 28, 2014
Does Being a “Marketing Services Provider” Make a Difference? In 2013 it Did, but Not for Everyone
Published February 26, 2014
Many printers have started promoting themselves as “marketing service providers” (MSPs), almost to the point that the terms “printer” and MSP are synonymous.
How Survivorship and Merger Activities Affect Industry Survey Results and Statistics
Published February 20, 2014
Ad Agency Employment Surpasses Commercial Printing Employment
Published February 7, 2014
Advertising Agency Employment Surpasses Commercial Printing, Reflecting the Shift from Traditional Media
Published February 7, 2014
The major news in the data update is that employment in advertising agencies surpassed that of the printing industry in July 2013. For 2013, printing employment was down by -12,600 (-2.8%). The biggest change was in employees outside of production who were -8,400 of that decline (-5.7%). Graphic design employment was down slightly for the year, but these data do not include freelancers, which are an essential part of that business. Inside the advertising agency employment data are public relations employees, the main area of employment growth in this sector.
Five of Six Recovery Indicators Retreat; Two Fall Below December 2007 Recession Levels
Published February 6, 2014
2013 US Commercial Printing Shipments Reach $77.6 Billion
Published February 4, 2014
2013 US Commercial Printing Shipments Reach $77.6 Billion
Published February 4, 2014
The Department of Commerce released December 2013 and revised November data. December shipments were $6.271B (-3.7% vs. Dec. 2012). On a current dollar basis, the total for the year was $77.6B, -3.8%. After adjusting for inflation using the Consumer Price Index, shipments were down -5.1%. The chart below shows current dollar and inflation-adjusted shipments starting with 2007
Inflation-adjusted US Printing and Print Services Shipments
Published February 4, 2014
GDP Shows Sluggish Economy; Inventory Build-up Continues; Small Business Retreats
Published January 30, 2014
Latest Inflation Multipliers: Print is Getting Cheaper Every Day. Really?
Published January 22, 2014
The USPS Sneaks a Rate Increase on Christmas Eve; Media Irrelevance Must be Their Objective
Published January 14, 2014
Printing Employment Declines, Public Relations Employment Grows: A Changing Media Mix Ripples Through the Marketplace
Published January 14, 2014
Recovery Indicators Take a Step Back
Published January 14, 2014
Inflation-adjusted Annualized US Publishing & Advertising Agency Revenues
Published January 14, 2014
This chart shows the inflation-adjusted revenue trends for selected content-creation businesses. Note how advertising revenues have increased despite the declines in the revenues to publishers. Agencies have shifted much of their efforts to developing “earned media” (a/k/a search engines, social media, e-marketing and numerous other digital formats), and the production of it.
Commerce Department Reports November 2013 Commercial Printing Shipments Down -5.6% Compared to 2012
Published January 6, 2014
Recovery Indicators Okay, Revised Q3 GDP Not as Strong as It Looks
Published December 6, 2013
October's Printing Shipments Reflect Ongoing Digital Media Shift
Published December 6, 2013
Dr. Joe Webb & Richard Romano Introduce Their New Book, But It's Not About Print
Published December 5, 2013
Were Data Fabricated in Unemployment Reports?
Published November 20, 2013
Are Stocks at All-Time Highs? Not After Adjusting for Inflation, but the Dow is Getting Really Close
Published November 14, 2013
Recovery Indicators Rebound from Prior Report; GDP Grows, but Inventory Drives It
Published November 8, 2013
Dr. Joe Recalculates the Unemployment Rate: It Improves to 7.1%, but Problems Remain; Printing Employment Holds Its Own, Unless You're a Supervisor
Published November 8, 2013
August and September Commercial Printing Shipments Take a Tumble
Published November 6, 2013
Employment Improves... Or Does It?
Published October 22, 2013
Recovery Indicators Retreat from Their Prior Month Surge
Published October 7, 2013
Dr. Joe Discusses the Statistics Behind USPS Pricing and Commercial Printing Volume
Published October 7, 2013
The Counterproductive Nature of the USPS Pricing Strategy
Published October 1, 2013
Dr. Joe on the Counterproductive Nature of the USPS Pricing Strategy
Profits Data Show Resilience of Leading Firms in Tough Economic Times
Published September 24, 2013
Dr. Joe Presentations at Print13 Breakfast and Global Channel Partners Summit
Published September 16, 2013
July Commercial Printing Shipments Disappoint at -2.5%; June Shipments Data Revised Sharply Downward
Published September 6, 2013
Two Recovery Indicators Turn Mildly Negative, Others In Strong Rise
Published September 6, 2013
Vogue's Print Ad Rise Has Very Little to Do with Print, Lots to Do with Branding, Research, and Competitive Action
Published August 26, 2013
US Commercial Printing Shipments per Employee in Sideways Trend: The Rest is Not So Obvious
Published August 14, 2013
Recovery Indicators Have a Good Month; Are Stocks at All-Time Highs? (Revisited)
Published August 5, 2013
June 2013 US Commercial Printing Shipments Down -1.6%; First Half of 2103 Down -1.5%
Published August 4, 2013
GDP Still Short of Normal Recovery; Revisions Make Recession "Less Bad"
Published August 1, 2013
Ten Years of Commercial Printing Process Shifts
Published July 24, 2013
Inflation Multipliers for the First Half of 2013
Published July 17, 2013
Statistical Trends in Print, or, Dr. Joe's Mixed Media Message
Published July 16, 2013
May Commercial Printing Shipments Disappoint; Public Relations and Graphic Designer Employment Rises
Published July 9, 2013
The Claimed Explosion in Part Time Workers: Sorry, There's No "There" There
Published July 9, 2013
Five Recovery Indicators Improve, One Plummets; Economic Side-step Continues
Published July 3, 2013
Q1 GDP Revised Down Again -- What's Next?
Published June 27, 2013
Printing Profits Still Struggling, but Rebound from Q4-2012
Published June 21, 2013
Friday's Employment Data: All This Dynamic Inertia and No Place to Go
Published June 9, 2013
April Printing Shipments Rise +$49 Million; January to April Shipments Down -0.6%
Published June 6, 2013
Recovery Indicators Still a Mixed Bag, but the Bag May Have a Leak
Published June 6, 2013
Did You Choose Your Market Niche or Did You Get It by Default?
Published May 30, 2013
US Commerce Department Revises Last Two Years of Printing Shipments Up Slightly
Published May 23, 2013
Latest Commercial Printing Demographics Show 1,200 Fewer Establishments
Published May 15, 2013
Q1 2013 US Commercial Printing Shipments Nearly Flat with 2012; March Shipments Down
Published May 3, 2013
The Mixed Economics Bag Gets a Mild Shake
Published May 3, 2013
Terry Nagi, Consultant, and Former PIA Executive, Passes Away
Published April 29, 2013
GDP Report Shows Struggling Economy; Should You Use GDP as a Benchmark?
Published April 29, 2013
Apple's Horrible Financial Report: Profits Only 21.9% of Sales, iPads Disappoint at +65%
Published April 25, 2013
Are You as Weary of “We Print the Marketing Materials of Others, but are not Marketers Ourselves” as Much as I Am?
Published April 17, 2013
Is the Economic Situation Starting to Crack Again?
Published April 10, 2013
February US Commercial Printing Shipments Disappoint, but January Shipments Revised Higher
Published April 3, 2013
Stop Hiring Yourself if You Want to Change Sales Strategy
Published March 27, 2013
Print Businesses in Transition Need Content Partners; Freelance Practitioners May Hold the Key to New Services
Published March 21, 2013
January 2013 US commercial printing shipments up +2.4% compared to 2012
Published March 14, 2013
All Recovery Indicators Positive for Second Month; Stocks are NOT at All-Time Highs
Published March 5, 2013
Long-Term Capital Equipment Patterns Reflect Change in Industry Sales Mix, Economic Shocks, and Competition
Published February 27, 2013
Dr. Joe on Underlying Trends Playing Out in the Industry
Published February 22, 2013
Dr. Joe Webb discusses high level trends playing out in the industry and the implications for the future.
Magazine Circulation Illustrates Risks of Niche Strategies for Printers
Published February 20, 2013
December 2012 US Commercial Printing Shipments Decrease -$224 million; Full-year Shipments Down -$1.47 Billion
Published February 13, 2013
All Recovery Indicators are Now Positive
Published February 6, 2013
It's Claimed Stocks are Making All-time Highs... Not Really...
Published January 31, 2013
Real GDP -0.1% in Q4-2012; But the Report Has Curious Contradictions
Published January 30, 2013
Updated Inflation Indicators: Are You Looking at the Right Trends in Your Business?
Published January 23, 2013
November US Commercial Printing Shipments Down -1.3%; Dr. Webb Issues 2013 Economic Forecast
Published January 15, 2013
Recovery Indicators Mixed, Economy Still Shuffling Sideways
Published January 14, 2013
October US Commercial Printing Shipments Increase, and Balance Much of September's Decline; Q3 Profits Rise; Details in New Report
Published December 13, 2012
Business Development: Riding the New Sales Cycle
Published December 10, 2012
Last time, Dr. Joe explained why business development is rising as a critical function in print organizations. The nature of selling is changing just as the nature of print in the communications mix is changing. And no, cold-calling has nothing to do with Winter temperatures.
Recovery Indicators Still Show Flat Economy; Printing Shipments Have a Positive October
Published December 6, 2012
Business Development Is Not a Sales Lead Qualification Process
Published November 26, 2012
In Part One of this two-part column, Dr. Joe explains how the changing dynamics in the printing industry are dynamically changing the sales process. It used to be that a sales call didn't need to start with explaining print-everyone already knew what it was, and the needed it. Not so much today…successful businesses are increasingly turning to business development practices. This is much more than sales lead generation and that will be the topic of Part Two.
The Election: Can Everyone Finally Stop Whining About "Uncertainty"?
Published November 12, 2012
There was no uncertainty about the election results, but there was plenty of whining about "uncertainty" for months and months prior to the election. Now that the election is over, is there really any less "uncertainty"? Why do executives get the big bucks? To make decisions when there's uncertainty, real uncertainty. Dr. Joe explains what's uncertain and what's not... at least we think he does. Guess you'll have to read it to be sure.
US Commercial Printing Shipments Decline -3.2% in September
Published November 6, 2012
Recovery Indicators Retreat; Economic Indicators Still Moving Sideways
Published November 5, 2012
Sandy Is Good for Economic Growth? Only if You Don't Know the "Broken Window Fallacy"
Published October 31, 2012
Thoughts About Last Week's “Next Wave: Get Ready” Column, and Some Apple Comments
Published October 29, 2012
Next Wave: Get Ready
Published October 22, 2012
You know you should worry when Dr. Joe uses phrases like "simultaneous critical mass." Then we find out that he thinks that data talks to him. His frugal ways are evident as he delights in the prospect of free broadband. Then there are boats and planes, too. It might be worth reading to make sure the next wave of innovation to hit the market is not one that means "goodbye" for your business.
Media and Elections
Published October 15, 2012
Dr. Joe is focused on denial but not in a myopic way. That may make sense once you dig into the column. Or like a lot of his columns, it may drive you to muttering all day. CNN claims that the USPS is being bailed out by election spending. That is, if you believe a decrease is an increase. And much more…
Friday's "Strange" Unemployment Report - Did it Make Sense?
Published October 6, 2012
August 2012 US Commercial Printing Shipments Down -2.9% Compared to 2011
Published October 4, 2012
The End of NAPL/PIA Unification Talks: Squandered Opportunity? Or Necessary Pause?
Published September 27, 2012
Fear and the Fed?
Published September 17, 2012
The Fed took a look at the economy last week and panicked. In printing industry terms, they increased their run lengths and their page counts, and there's more money printing on the way. It's not much, just $1.4 trillion. What's a few billion dollars amongst friends?
Happy Software Freedom Day: September 15, 2012
Published September 11, 2012
More Economic Sameness
Published September 10, 2012
Dr. Joe explains last Friday's employment report, takes a look at employment in our industry, and explains why ad agency revenues are going up when everything else seems to be going down. Speaking of down, sit down before you read his comments about the latest recovery indicators. Yes, Dr. Doom seems to have infiltrated this column, again.
September Issue of “Monthly Printing Shipments Trends & Forecasts” is Now Available for Download; Subscribers Receive Latest US & Canada Data Analysis with Dr. Joe Webb's Commentary and Forecast
Published September 6, 2012
July 2012 US Commercial Printing Shipments Flat with 2011
Published September 3, 2012
Number of Microbusinesses Rise in Economy's Recovery, Total Number of Businesses Declines
Published August 27, 2012
Risk and “Uncertainty” are Not the Same
Published August 20, 2012
Don't be uncertain about the risks of reading Dr. Joe's column about risk and uncertainty. It's not often he gets to use the word “actuarial” in a column about printing. Everyone thinks they know what ROI means, but just one little letter makes a big difference.
Interpreting Media Use Headlines
Published August 13, 2012
Dr. Joe's glad he didn't buy Facebook stock, and explains why the company's stock price matters little to media decision-makers. And then there's the magazine circulation thing. Why is everyone so surprised that it's down? Yet again he rails about inflation, but at least he has some fresh new inflation multipliers to annoy company controllers and CFOs
Recovery Indicators Retreat; Economy's Sidestep Continues
Published August 8, 2012
June 2012 US Commercial Printing Shipments Up +$139 Million Compared to 2011
Published August 2, 2012
Q2 GDP Disappoints at +1.5%; GDP Revisions Make Recession Less Bad and Recovery Less Good
Published July 31, 2012
Advertising Agency Changing Product Mix Keeps Revenues on an Upswing; What it Means to the Marketing Services Strategy
Published July 22, 2012
Relevance and Industry Capacity
Published July 16, 2012
Here Dr. Joe goes again, on another capacity rant. It's about two years since his last one, so we guess we should cut him some slack. This time he takes a slightly different look, or at least he says he did. You decide.
Recovery Indicators Take an Interesting Wrong Turn
Published July 9, 2012
The recovery continues to limp along, and then the Commerce Department says that May printing shipments were just incredibly good. Sure, they tease us a few weeks ago by yanking $600 million in shipments from the first quarter in their annual revision, and now it looks like someone may have snuck them back into May when they thought no one was looking. Dr. Joe explains it all, including a great way to get back to sleep when insomnia hits.
Toshiba's No-Print Day is Awkward and Scandalous, But Don’t Let It Divert You from Bigger Trends
Published June 18, 2012
The industry's hackles have been raised by Toshiba's No-Print Day, and it's ironic that the company picks a date with some historical importance for print to hold the event. Toshiba's thinking needs to be confronted, but engagement with their audiences is a more important action for our associations and our businesses.
An Economic Update You Won't See in the Press
Published June 11, 2012
Economic conditions are being twisted and distorted by the long-held biases of the business press. The charged political climate of an election year fans passions that magnify momentary small and nearly meaningless changes in economic data into cataclysms or triumphs. You have to step back to see what's really happening, or not happening. Small businesses can't choose economic conditions, but they can choose their means of navigation.
April US Commercial Printing Shipments Down -3.4%; Shipments Down 12 of Last 13 Months
Published June 6, 2012
Latest Recovery Indicators Take a Step Back as Economy Continues Lackluster Growth
Published June 5, 2012
Commerce Department Revises Years of US Commercial Printing Shipments Data; Downward Revisions from 2009 through 2012
Published May 21, 2012
Running Toward Confusion is Good Advice
Published May 21, 2012
Dr. Joe is frequently asked questions at conferences, webinars, and by e-mail from around the world that sometimes turn into columns. This week, as a result of some of those questions, he explains why confusion is good, misconceptions start with ourselves, not others; how digital natives affect the workforce; and other matters. And then, there are those seemingly innocent news items that he puts into a different context. That Dr. Joe... he makes your head hurt sometimes.
The “Half of All Workers Don't Pay Taxes” Mantra is Starting to Get Taxing
Published May 14, 2012
You've heard it many times from many quarters: “Half of all workers don't pay taxes.” Dr. Joe has gotten tired of hearing this and offers a different perspective. He explores who actually pays taxes, why what you commonly hear about taxes is always out of context, and how the benefits of tax avoidance are immediate, predictable, and risk-free. That's exactly what the economy does not need. Everyone will find something to dislike in this column.
Unemployment Better Until You Peek Behind the Curtain; Printing Employment Flat with March
Published May 9, 2012
Recovery Indicators Mixed... Again
Published May 3, 2012
March 2012 US Commercial Printing Shipments $7.145 Billion, Down -4.2% Compared to March 2011
Published May 2, 2012
If Marketing Services Does Not Include Apps, then It's Not Really Marketing Services
Published April 23, 2012
Another drupa is Upon Us... Now What?
Published April 23, 2012
Dr. Joe tells us what drupa and other trade shows mean to the new capital investment patterns of our industry. He thinks capital investments are becoming more tactical than strategic, more continuous than discrete. This is a problem, because “capex” often locks in a vision of media markets, making it harder to adjust to market changes. Just what we need: Dr. Joe having visions again.
Rising Inflation, Deteriorating Worker Earnings, and a Warning About Economic Data Conspiracy Theories
Published April 19, 2012
Unemployment Improves as Workers Leave; Printing Employment Shrinks; A Small Business Setback
Published April 10, 2012
February US Commercial Printing Shipments Flat with 2011
Published April 4, 2012
Recovery Indicators Make a Sideways Move
Published April 4, 2012
Profits Winning Streak Over: Industry Has -$276 Million Loss in 4Q-2011; Finishes 2011 with $2.78 Billion in Profits
Published March 27, 2012
Economic Overview; Changing Channels Not Just for TV
Published March 19, 2012
Dr. Joe tiptoes through the economic data, discusses the nature of efficiency and expansion, and then pontificates about channels that are not of the TV kind. Then he explains why a new high in a stock index is not what it seems. Did we really say tiptoe? Where are the tulips?
Content's Being Created, but Revenue Data Show that if Content is King, it's of a Small Country
Published March 13, 2012
A Sideways Pause in the Recovery Indicators
Published March 6, 2012
January US Commercial Printing Shipments Down -2.4% Compared to 2011
Published March 6, 2012
Cautious Upward Tilt to the Economy Continues
Published March 1, 2012
Bo Sacks's Publishing Perspective as Technology Disrupts the Future
Published February 24, 2012
Head of Precision Media Bo Sacks shares his perspective on the evolving publishing industry with Dr. Joe Webb.
News Stories Underscore Today’s Media Shift and The Need for Action by Print CEOs
Published February 20, 2012
Procter & Gamble, tablet computing, and the S&P 499... Dr. Joe ties them all together and comes up with urgency and entrepreneurship and something about backbones. He even includes one of those really cluttered charts that he's famous for. It's just another Dr. Joe column, but this one might rattle the common wisdom when it doesn't want to be rattled... again.
A Contrarian Word about Economic Data and Forecasts; The US Commercial Printing Forecast 2012-2018
Published February 15, 2012
Dr. Joe and Bo Sacks Talk about Getting Customers to Pay for Digital Content
Published February 10, 2012
Bo Sacks of Precision Media and WhatTheyThink's Dr. Joe Webb have an in-depth discussion about the progression of pay wall business.
US Commercial Printing Shipments End 2011 on Sour Note
Published February 6, 2012
Unemployment Rate Drops, Conspiracy Theories Rise, Economy Improves
Published February 6, 2012
GDP Better on the Surface, but Disappoints; Big Week for Economic Data Ahead
Published January 29, 2012
Welcome Back: I Was Wrong
Published January 23, 2012
Dr. Joe is back and he admits he was wrong. There's a season for everything, it turns out, but not the same ones there used to be. He explains how to be a hit at cocktail parties, and then wonders why we should care about economic forecasting, if at all. Sounds like he's been away from the WhatTheyThink pages a little too long...
All Six Recovery Indicators are Positive: First Time Since May 2011
Published January 16, 2012
November 2011 US Commercial Printing Shipments Down -1.4% Compared to November 2010
Published January 15, 2012
US Commercial Printing Industry Profits Rise for Eight Quarters
Published December 14, 2011
Economic Outlook with Dr. Joe Webb
Published December 9, 2011
Inflation Adjustment in the Printing Industry
Published December 8, 2011
Inflation Adjustment in the Printing Industry presentation.
Mistaken Identity: Stocks, Fed Actions and Print Volume
Published November 29, 2011
Random Thoughts About the Economy, Small Business, the USPS, and Generational Extremes of iPad Use, and Other Matters
Published November 14, 2011
Shift in Employment from Print to Other Media Intensifies
Published November 9, 2011
September 2011 US Commercial Printing Shipments Steady with 2010
Published November 3, 2011
Economy Keeps Moving Sideways as Signs of Recovery Remain Elusive
Published November 3, 2011
Lessons from Steve Jobs
Published October 31, 2011
Steve Jobs' passing created interest in his management style and the culture of the company he left behind. What management lessons apply for other businesses? Is print a commodity? Can print campaigns be too successful for their own good? One printer blamed its disappointing financial results on that very fact.
GDP: A Look Under the Hood Shows a Still Flat Economy
Published October 27, 2011
Real Earnings Lessen as Inflation Moderates, Or Is It Rotten to the Core?
Published October 20, 2011
Unemployment Report Shows Economic Erosion; Recovery Indicators Contract
Published October 11, 2011
August Commercial Printing Shipments Provide Some Relief: +$210 Million in Current Dollars.
Published October 6, 2011
Hunker Down Financially, Market Aggressively
Published September 26, 2011
Dr. Joe explains the bearish outlook for the economy but explains how the advertising agency business has been rising and adding employees. It's important to know who your competitors are, especially in terms of an overlooked factor in decision making, the cost of failure, which sometimes trumps common sense.
US Commercial Printing Profits Rise for Seven Quarters, and Other Comments
Published September 18, 2011
When July Shipments Get Tough, the Tough Go to Graph Expo; Commercial Printing Shipments Down -2.7% in July vs. 2010
Published September 1, 2011
Recession? Sure Feels Like One
Published August 23, 2011
Dr. Joe explains that another recession may have already started, and the thought of that may be all that's needed to create demands for more Fed easing and more fiscal stimulus. The NASDAQ is down -18% from the start of the December 2007 recession on an inflation-adjusted basis. The commodities and consumer inflation trends may actually be slowing right now. Yet again, Dr. Joe explains some of the economic workings that are contrary to the morning news.
Graph Expo, for the Strategy, Not Just the Technology
Published August 18, 2011
Unemployment, the Downgrade, the Stock Rout, and Productivity
Published August 9, 2011
Are You Using the Right Economic Benchmarks for Your Business?
Published August 8, 2011
Is it real? Is it current? No, we're not talking about philosophy or the timeliness of something, we're talking about financial data. Dr. Joe explains how to use national economic data when comparing your business performance to the economy. Use the right tool at the right time.
Recovery Indicators Relapse
Published August 3, 2011
June 2011 US Commercial Printing Shipments Disappoint
Published August 3, 2011
GDP Data Revisions Show Steeper Recession and Unrecovered Economy
Published August 1, 2011
Latest Counts of Business Establishments Show How Printers and Other Business Sectors Were Affected by the Recession
Published July 25, 2011
On the Wrong Side of Creative Destruction: Now What?
Published July 25, 2011
When things are going well, everyone feels like they're the genius who's making it happen. When things get tough, you have to actually be one. Right now, it seems that Apple is a genius, showing how businesses can transcend the tough economic situations they face. A curious sign of change in employment in agencies and design firms as they now exceed commercial printing employment . Dr. Joe told everyone to consider 2010 as breathing room and to use it to urgently reconsider and restructure. In 2011, it is the time to act. He explains that we have to admit that print is a specialty and no longer mainstream as we position our businesses and beloved medium for some hostile media shifts now underway.
The Recession and Recovery in Perspective
Published July 18, 2011
May 2011 Printing Shipments Higher than 2010, but Disappoint on Closer Scrutiny
Published July 13, 2011
Monthly Printing Shipments
Published July 12, 2011
Every month, the US Department of Commerce and Statistics Canada publish data about shipments of their commercial printing industries. US data are usually available 5 weeks after the close of a month, and Canada about 7 weeks after. The WhatTheyThink Economics & Research Center uses these data to develop forecasts of the industry on a current dollar and on an inflation-adjusted dollar basis. The inflation-adjustment shows a truer trend of industry direction. Canada data are also available adjusted for the exchange rate with the US dollar as well as on an inflation-adjusted basis.
Economic Indicators Still Muddling Through; Slowdown Risks Rising
Published July 11, 2011
Changing the Mindset, Part 2 of 2
Published July 11, 2011
Two weeks ago, Dr. Joe discussed the changes that are underway in media and the amazing gadgets that access them. He continues that discussion, revealing some astonishing data about technology adoption and the change in the economic relationship of advertising agency and commercial printing demographics. Urgency is the new mandate for the print business owner, according to Dr. Webb. That probably means you should read this column right now.
Random Thoughts at the End of the Second Quarter
Published June 29, 2011
Changing Our Mindset, Part 1 of 2
Published June 27, 2011
Dr. Joe takes a hard look at the nature of media, the costs and definition of journalism, and what cloud computing means. It's one of those eclectic mixes of data and information that the good Doctor has been known to conjure up. The brew is so big that it has to be spread over two columns! Watch for the next edition on July 11th.
The Efficiency Economy
Published June 21, 2011
Six Consecutive Profitable Quarters for U.S. Commercial Printing Businesses
Published June 15, 2011
The first quarter of 2011 continued a welcome continuation of profitability for the industry. The industry shakeout of unprofitable businesses, and the better management of healthier businesses continues to create an improved bottom line, but there are still great challenges ahead. The restructuring of the industry will be a continuing process in 2011 and beyond.
Will We Be Pining for 2008 the Way We Miss 1998?
Published June 13, 2011
We wish April showers were dollars flowing into print businesses, but that did not seem to happen. Who would have thought that we would miss 2004-2008, looking at that period as a time of stability? One of our recovery indicators, the NASDAQ, seems to have relapsed and may be heading for rehab. Perhaps the wild and fun ride it had on Ben Bernanke's QE2 has now come to an end. It may not get another cruise until he pilots a brand new ship, QE3, but rumors of that cruise liner's voyage are just that-rumors. QE2's huge midnight buffet was nice, but the economic heartburn may take a while to pass.
April 2011 U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Down
Published June 9, 2011
April 2011 commercial printing shipments were $7.08 billion, down -$109 million (-1.5%) compared to 2010. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were down -$366 million (-4.5%).
Economy Gets Pause that Isn't Refreshing
Published June 3, 2011
Counterintuitive Economics
Published May 30, 2011
USPS Volume Mix Changes; Periodicals Still Declining
Published May 24, 2011
Urgency Gets No Summer Vacation This Year
Published May 23, 2011
What do Social Security checks, grandchildren, bedtime and doctors have in common? Dr. Joe explains it all, and has some suggestions about what the industry should be thinking about during summer vacations and summer shutdowns. He's on the "it's 1994 again" rant once more, so you've been warned.
Inflation and Worker Earnings Moving in the Wrong Directions
Published May 15, 2011
The L-Shaped Recovery Rolls On
Published May 9, 2011
Unemployment went up, but the headlines were happy. Commodities prices drop sharply, but how far they have risen seems to be forgotten. The Fed feels rewarded for its inaction, and Dr. Joe finds a silver lining.
March 2011 U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up; Twelve Months of Increases
Published May 6, 2011
March printing shipments were up, resulting in 12 consecutive months of increase. Dr. Webb explains how the easy comparisons to the prior year are about to end, and that the balance of 2011 will be about the same as 2010. He reviews the upcoming data revisions from the Commerce Department on May 13, the importance of inflation adjusting company financial data, and the shipment rates of Canada's commercial printing industry.
Recovery Indicators Better than the Recession Start, but are Now Stalling
Published May 4, 2011
Q1 GDP Disappoints, but No One is Surprised
Published April 28, 2011
Shocking News! Gas is One-Fifth the Price it Was in 1980: Here's Why
Published April 25, 2011
Things are never what they seem in economics, like how we paid $10.78 per gallon for gas in 1980. Dr. Joe explains the strange math that reminds us about the distortions of inflation and the wonder of ingenuity, and how news reporters unaware of them. Pepsi made a huge blunder with social media, but we should be encouraged by their mistake because it should inspire print business executives that they are just as smart as those Ivy League execs with all their market research reports. We may have the ultimate weapon: common sense.
Q&A for Economic Webinar of April 20, 2011
Published April 21, 2011
Economic Casablanca: I am Shocked! Shocked!
Published April 19, 2011
Still Trudging Through and Trudging Some More
Published April 11, 2011
Today's economic conditions make economists wish they had more hands and while making the common people more frustrated in their attempts to figure it out. Oil and food are rising in price, but the economy seems better in some ways with some reports of improving employment. GDP is still rising, but some industries are still suffering. Dr. Joe explains why just staying busy is not enough and that it's what you're doing that really matters.
U.S. Commercial Printing Businesses Produce Estimated $1.11 Billion in Profits in Fourth Quarter 2010
Published April 6, 2011
Dr. Joe Webb has compiled reports on US commercial printing profits going back to 1995, and brings it all current to Q4 2010. This report examines the latest trends in shipments, profits and capacity for the industry, of which the Federal Reserve just made revisions going back almost 25 years. How does Joe recommend printers steer the course? What will it take to get the print industry out of the hole? Dr. Webb has insights that can help.
Five of Six Recovery Indicators are Positive (CORRECTED)
Published April 5, 2011
February 2011 U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +4.4%, Eleven Months of Y-O-Y Increases
Published April 5, 2011
Dr. Webb looks at February's shipments, Canada's January shipments, and updated forecasts for the North American printing industry to 2017. There's an updated GDP Forecast model and commentary on why that model is not totally reliable for forecasting the print industry. Will the rest of 2011 be as positive as January and February? Dr. Joe discusses.
Commercial Printing Profits Rise Again
Published March 30, 2011
Of Pieces and Population: Preference, Likability, Frequency, Quantity and Dimension
Published March 21, 2011
“I Can’t Eat an iPad”
Published March 21, 2011
While he loves computers, when it comes to dinnertime, Dr. Joe still prefers food. Seems the Fed would prefer we think otherwise. As far as understanding inflation at its core, a good meal can go a long way if you have the money for it. He takes a new look at a dead French economist. And considers the print execs you won’t see in San Francisco mid-April.
Capital Investment Patterns Change Significantly Over Last Decade
Published March 11, 2011
January 2011 U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +4.1%, Good Start to New Year
Published March 10, 2011
Dr. Webb comments on what the forecasting models are projecting for shipments out to 2017. The podcast also includes an analysis of how the industry has changed between 2000 and 2009 based on the latest data from the Commerce Department.
The Frosting Looks Great, But the Cake is Awful
Published March 7, 2011
Reading past the headlines seems to be Dr. Joe's specialty since no one else is doing it, especially with last Friday's unemployment report. Printing shipments were up in 2010, and January was a strong month, but printing employment seems to tell a different tale. Beware of academics bearing jargon: Dr. Joe explains why “Ph.D.” sometimes, as the old joke goes, means “piled higher and deeper.”
Recovery Indicators Still Moving Sideways; 5 of 6 are Positive
Published March 3, 2011
Why No One Threw a Birthday Party for the Stimulus
Published February 21, 2011
Caution: Risks of Economic Disappointment are Rising
Published February 21, 2011
Just as the economy seems to be improving, Dr. Joe is back with his Dr. Doom persona. He thinks it's justified based on the latest inflation and wage data, and makes the case accordingly. The pace of technological change seems to be independent of the economic situation, and while Dr. Joe suggests that caution is the economic watchword, he says that the continued rapid rate of technological change should lead to urgent and direct management action in print businesses.
Media Shift Evident in Employment Data
Published February 16, 2011
Printing Employment Shrinks, Shipments per Employee Rise
Published February 9, 2011
The Employment Disappearing Act: Where Did 500,000 Jobs Go?
Published February 7, 2011
Sometimes you see a lot by looking, according to famed economist Yogi Berra. Somehow, the labor statisticians’ “whoops” factor involves over-counting the number of employed people by a mere half million. Then they say unemployment got better, except, of course, for the parts that got worse. At least there was exceptionally good news from the Institute of Supply Management reports, the best in quite a while. Dr. Joe explains what printers should assume in their planning, saying that skill really matters, and that luck will have nothing to do with it.
2010 U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Finish at $86.7 Billion, +0.9% Versus 2009
Published February 4, 2011
December 2010 commercial printing shipments were $7.48 billion, up $347 million (+4.9%) compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were up +3.3%. This brought the year's shipments to $86.7 billion.
Recovery Indicators Strengthen; December Printing Shipments Up +4.8%
Published February 3, 2011
Q4-2010 GDP Report Has Something for Optimists & Pessimists Alike, But We're Still Moving Sideways
Published January 28, 2011
Analyze Your Business Trends with Our Updated Inflation Multipliers
Published January 26, 2011
November U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +4.2%
Published January 19, 2011
November 2010 commercial printing shipments were $7.48 billion, up $303 million (+4.2%) compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were up +4.2%. “This was a very encouraging month, and continues the consecutive gain in current dollar shipments for eight months,” explained Dr. Joe Webb, director of WhatTheyThink's Economics and Research Center.
Updated Macroeconomic Indicators: Manufacturing Inflation and Declining Wages
Published January 17, 2011
We Three Things of Disorientation Are
Published January 17, 2011
Dr. Joe digs into the details of the economy now that it's three years since the recession started, and eighteen months since the recovery started. Does it really feel like a recovery? The headlines of the various economic news stories seem to be quite different than reality, so Dr. Joe explains what's happening behind the scenes as he starts his ninth year with WhatTheyThink. And they said it wouldn't last.
Dr. Joe Webb interviews Richard Romano about the iPad: What it Is, What It’s Not, and What it Means
Published January 14, 2011
Dr. Joe interviews Richard Romano to discuss the iPad report.
Ignore the Headline Unemployment 9.4%: This Was a Bad Report
Published January 7, 2011
Five of Six Recovery Indicators Now Positive; Last One Remains Stubbornly Negative
Published January 6, 2011
U.S. Commercial Printing Businesses Produce Estimated $1.1 Billion in Profits in Third Quarter 2010
Published December 14, 2010
The third quarter of 2010 continued a welcome continuation of profitability for the industry. It has had seven consecutive months of increased sales, but it's clear that the profits trend is increasing, but the long term sales trend is flat.
US Comm'l Printers Post Best Quarterly Profits Since Q3-2007
Published December 13, 2010
Dr. Joe: Print in 2020
Published December 13, 2010
Dr. Joe sits down with Cary to discuss the future of the printing industry in 2020. Reviewing technology's past and economic present there are three numbers to focus on: 30, 60 and 100.
October U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +1.4%
Published December 6, 2010
October 2010 commercial printing shipments were $7.61 billion, up $108 million (+1.4%) compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were up +0.3%.
Does Google Type “Money” in the Search Box and Click “I'm Feeling Lucky”?.... And Other Random Thoughts
Published December 1, 2010
To Prepare for 2011, Imagine It Is 1994 Again
Published November 29, 2010
Dr. Joe must have a time machine, because all he wants to talk about is 1994. He wonders why the planning process used by companies large and small always seems to miss critical market shifts and reinforce the status quo, actually constraining the ability to change. What can make the planning process more effective and our companies more adept when the marketplace takes an unexpected turn?
Updating the Macroeconomic Picture: To "L" with It
Published November 17, 2010
Sharp Decrease in Layoffs Due to Bankruptcy Reflect Industry Improvement
Published November 15, 2010
Even something that sounds bad, like the number of printing industry layoffs due to bankruptcy, can be good if they're declining. Dr. Joe explains the sharp decline in the last four quarters and why it's very good news.
Reading Past the Employment Headline: Someone's Got to Do It
Published November 8, 2010
Sometimes you actually have to read past the first paragraph to find out what's going on, and looking at the tables of statistical reports with the real data leads to conclusions that are quite different than the headlines. Dr. Joe does the statistical equivalent of going into the kitchen to see how clean it is before believing a restaurant's reviews. You may have heard that there were elections last week, and that they might have been important. Keep it all in perspective, and don't get ahead of things. There's political chaos ahead that may only increase the uncertainty.
September U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +3.4%; Six Consecutive Months of Growth Versus 2009
Published November 4, 2010
September 2010 commercial printing shipments were $7.58 billion, up $248 million (+3.4%) compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were up +2.2%. “This continues the consecutive gain in current dollar shipments for six months, a welcome change for commercial printers,” explained Dr. Joe Webb, director of WhatTheyThink's Economics and Research Center.
The Recovery is Still a Capital L; True Uncertainty is Back
Published November 3, 2010
Q3 2010 Real GDP on Quarter/Quarter and Year/Year Basis
Published November 1, 2010
Dr. Joe looks at the advance report for GDP in 2010's third quarter and explains what it means, what it doesn't, and why it might be worth ignoring.
Does Creative Employment Indicate Good News for Print Volume?
Published October 26, 2010
Capacity Utilization: (Virtually) Meaningless
Published October 25, 2010
Dr. Joe has quite the capacity to cause an argument about most anything economic, especially capacity utilization. Perhaps the state of employment in our industry is showing an unexpected shift from the big printing enclaves to new areas of growth. This unusual finding deserves some further scrutiny. Magazines get a boost from the auto industry, which was a clunker until recently. The sideways movement of the economy is obvious again, but Dr. Joe was flying high on WiFi and gives it the thumbs up.
Change in Commercial Printing Segments 1997-2008
Published October 18, 2010
Dr. Joe updates his look at the recent trends in printing industry employment and the last five months of increased sales are playing out.
Latest Macroeconomic Snapshot
Published October 16, 2010
Three Numbers, 30-60-100, Foreshadow What's Ahead
Published October 11, 2010
Dr. Joe explains what the numbers 30, 60, and 100 have to do with 2020 and our industry. Somehow, it all adds up. The unemployment report shows an “L” shaped recession, even though we are now in an extended recovery. See what 30, 60, and 100 have in store for us.
August U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +3.3%
Published October 11, 2010
August 2010 commercial printing shipments were $7.3 billion, up $235 million (+3.3%) compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were up +2.2.
Printing Shipments Up 5 Consecutive Months; Recovery Indicators Positively Mixed
Published October 6, 2010
ISM Manufacturing Index - Selected Components Since December 2007
Published October 4, 2010
Dr. Joe explains the latest Institute for Supply Management manufacturing report in terms of its key components of new orders, prices paid, employment, and imports. The manufacturing side of the economy is still growing, but it looks like it's slowing down, and inflation is starting to creep into the system.
Dr. Joe Answers Xerox' Panel Discussion Questions
Published October 2, 2010
Random Comments and Musings Before Graph Expo
Published September 29, 2010
Dr. Joe at Graph Expo
Published September 27, 2010
The educational aspects of the show floor at Graph Expo are an under-utilized opportunity that companies can use to better educate their staff. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research certainly has taken its time in informing us when the recession ended and might soon be telling us the recovery is over. Dr. Joe explains it all, and even offers a review of Warren Werbitt's latest opus.
Rumor: Ann Mulcahy to Replace Larry Summers, Why It Should, But Won't Happen
Published September 22, 2010
Major Investment Areas Commerical Sheetfed vs. Commercial Digital Color
Published September 20, 2010
As we head into GraphExpo, what does our latest survey show that commercial sheetfed and commercial color digital printers are looking for? Dr. Joe explains it all
Review of Our Latest Macroeconomic Snapshot
Published September 19, 2010
Happy Software Freedom Day, September 18, 2010
Published September 17, 2010
U.S. Commercial Printing Businesses Produce Estimated $1.1 Billion in Profits in Second Quarter 2010
Published September 15, 2010
The second quarter of 2010 continued a welcome continuation of mild profitability for the industry. Much of the industry is still recovering from a very difficult 2009, and two quarters of profits can't really make up for that. But we're on the right track, even though there are still challenges ahead.
What? Printers are Making Capital Investments?
Published September 13, 2010
The only thing certain is confusion. If business is so bad, why does our recent survey of commercial printers show they are planning to invest? Newspapers announce plans to keep their print edition - but we learned of it in non-print media! Things are certainly confusing, and this column might raise the confusion to an even higher level of sophistication.
July U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +0.3%
Published September 7, 2010
July 2010 commercial printing shipments were $6.87 billion, up $18 million (+0.3%) compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were down -1%. This continues the consecutive gain in current dollar shipments for four months, the first time we have had a period of that extent since November 2007.
Recovery Indicators Still Positive, but Two are Worrisome; Unemployment Report is Troublesome
Published September 3, 2010
Revised Q2 GDP Implies More Slow Going Ahead
Published August 27, 2010
Ramblings, Whinings, and Admonitions
Published August 25, 2010
Questioning Common Wisdom is Important to Strategy
Published August 23, 2010
How often have we heard that print is a trusted medium, that awareness and familiarity are goals of advertising communications, or that print is key to touching prospects or customers? The new communications market is filled with opportunities for print entrepreneurs, but going against the common wisdom of industry myths is an important aspect of the entrepreneurial spirit. If you believe it's important to embrace change to be successful, then start by questioning commonly-held beliefs about the medium of print.
The Economy is Slowing... What Does that Mean for Us?
Published August 18, 2010
How magazine circulation, ad pages and mailed by piece has changed since 2000
Published August 16, 2010
How have magazines changed over the last 10 years? Dr. Joe looks at subscription circulation, ad pages, postal shipments and weight, and what they tell us about this critical segment of our industry.
Even the Fed Worries about a Continuing Downturn
Published August 10, 2010
The Unsatisfying L-Shaped Recovery Continues
Published August 9, 2010
Remember when people used to argue about a V-shaped recovery, or a U-shaped one, or even a W-shaped one? Dr. Joe kept saying the recovery was a lot earlier in the alphabet, and that letter was “L.” Recent economic data seem to be playing out exactly that way, with employment virtually the same as it was last year and GDP growth declining to levels that are indicative more of recession than recovery. Don't say you weren't warned. Yet despite all of the market pessimism, the printing industry seems to be righting itself and showing some signs of vitality.
Latest Recovery Indicators Still Moving Sideways
Published August 4, 2010
2Q Printing Shipments Better than 2009
Published August 3, 2010
Second Quarter U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +2.8%
Published August 3, 2010
June 2010 commercial printing shipments were $7.2 billion, up +2.4% compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were up +1.3%. “This is the first three month gain in shipments on an inflation-adjusted basis since the period of October 2006 through April 2007.
More printers interested in buying than selling books of business customer base
Published August 2, 2010
Who's buying and who's selling? The print business has been consolidating, and we're certain there is more to go, especially with the popularity of "tuck-ins." Dr. Joe explains why "tuck-ins" are not about what you should do with your shirt, but how it has slowly been creating a more efficient industry.
Dr. Joe Rambles On About the Post Office, Apple, the Economy, and Other Things
Published July 28, 2010
The Profitable Survivors
Published July 26, 2010
The printing industry may be through the worst of its restructuring efforts, but we know there is still more work to do. Dr. Joe explains how the corner may have been turned about a year ago, creating a class of surviving businesses that are claiming revenue increases. Then he puts on the green eyeshades and discusses "bonus depreciation." Of course, his take on the issue is different than what you might have heard elsewhere. (Again?)
Judging Real Performance of the Print Business
Published July 20, 2010
Change in Commerical Printing Segments 1997-2008
Published July 19, 2010
Dr. Joe discusses how commercial printing segments have changed their share of industry shipments from 1997 through 2008, and why digital printing's share might be even larger than the data indicate.
Don't Believe the Papers: Retail Sales are Better than Reported
Published July 14, 2010
Dr. Joe reviews the "recovery", USPS rate hikes and our latest & greatest tax policies
Published July 12, 2010
Months ago, Dr. Joe said we would have an L-shaped recovery, and indeed that seems to be the case. 2011 taxes are already playing into today's economy and creating unintended consequences. And then there's the Postal Service request for emergency price increases. Is it as out of touch with the marketplace as it seems, or is that just the way bureaucrats cry out for help?
Recovery Indicators Retreat
Published July 7, 2010
May U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +3.6%
Published July 6, 2010
May's shipments were up compared to 2009, and April's were revised significantly upward. This is the first time since early 2008 that the industry produced two consecutive months with shipment increases. For complete details see this month's printing shipments report.
May & April Shipments UP!
Published July 5, 2010
Dr. Joe Creates a Fable About Taxes and Investment
Published July 2, 2010
Economic Data Galore in the Next Week
Published June 29, 2010
What Would Get the Economy Moving Again?
Published June 28, 2010
Dr. Joe wants to start the economy booming again, and he offers a prescription he knows no one will heed. He also explains how small business owners make hiring decisions and some of the financial factors that roll through their minds as they do so. Just what we need... medicine no one wants to take, and a lesson in finance. The July 4th weekend can't come soon enough.
Dr. Joe reviews the latest economic data
Published June 21, 2010
Dr. Joe reviews the latest economic data and explains where we're headed for the third and fourth quarters and why.
Content Creation Markets: Top-Line Revenue Trends
Published June 18, 2010
Printing Profits Improving: Q1-2010 is Up $830 Million vs. Q1-2009
Published June 15, 2010
First Quarter 2010 Profits for U.S. Commercial Printing Businesses
Published June 15, 2010
The first quarter of 2010 was a significant change compared to the same quarter of last year. The industry had a difficult time in 2009, and the profits that were initially reported for the fourth quarter of 2009 were swept away in a data revision by the Commerce Department. But 2009 was profitable, and this first quarter of 2010 was very encouraging. Profit levels are increasing, not because of higher market prices, but because of employee downsizing, and the departure of weakest printers. Dr. Webb emphasized that there are still challenges ahead because of the continuing growth of new communications that will affect the demand for print. We must remember that just because the industry may be having a tough time, there are profitable companies who are offering innovative services to their clients. The restructuring of the industry will be built on the entrepreneurial actions of these firms.
"Print is Not Dead" Should be DOA
Published June 14, 2010
A man walks into a pet store, holding a bird cage by its handle, and approaches the counter. At the bottom of the cage is a blue parrot, claws up. The man and the clerk engage in some banter, not about the bird being dead, but how beautiful its plumage is. Why is it that “print is not dead” only conjures up some decades-old Monty Python sketch? Dr. Joe explains how just having a pulse does not qualify one for a new and dynamic communications marketplace... how new technology is conspiring to make us a craft industry, yet again.
April 2010 commercial printing shipments
Published June 7, 2010
April 2010 commercial printing shipments were $7.05 billion, down -1.9% compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were down -4.1%. For the first four months of 2010, shipments were down -4.7% on a current dollar basis.
Jobs Report Highlights What the Real Problems of the Economy Are
Published June 4, 2010
Recovery Indicators Take a Pause that Might Actually be for Refreshment
Published June 3, 2010
Is Bullishness at IPEX a Positive Sign?
Published May 25, 2010
Is the Case for the Double-Dip Recession Stronger Now?
Published May 24, 2010
Double-dip usually means a diet-busting serving of ice cream. If ice cream is easy money, and the diet is the judicious use of credit, then it's another way to explain Europe's economic crisis. To paraphrase the old saying, “What if they gave a V-shaped recovery and nobody came,” might be what's happening to the economy. When no one's certain what's ahead, they focus on what they know.
Does ROI Miss the Mark? Is ROT Better?
Published May 20, 2010
Commerce Department Revises Printing Shipments Data
Published May 17, 2010
The Department of Commerce revised almost 10 years of printing industry shipments data last week. The WhatTheyThink economic data elves dug into the data and explain what those revisions mean, what years were revised up, and which ones were revised down.
The Other Diversity and Furrowed Brows
Published May 13, 2010
Does it Have Legs? The Economy's Still Wearing Long Pants
Published May 10, 2010
The unemployment report was released Friday, and though it was almost 10%, there was good news. Will it last? Print and GDP continue their decade-plus estrangement. Disposable income is not the money you throw away, but the money you can spend as you wish. Well, maybe it is the money you throw away. Unless something changes, some of that money will go to filling out forms. Nothing like bureaucracy as a growth business.
Economy Recovery Indicators Show Positive Signs, Despite New Worries
Published May 5, 2010
Year/Year Changes in Real GDP vs. Real Proprietors Income
Published May 3, 2010
The first quarter GDP showed that the economy is growing, but that was compared to the fourth quarter. How is GDP changing on a year-to-year comparison? The GDP data are about the whole economy, but how is small business doing? Dr. Joe explains how a rarely reported part of the quarterly GDP data helps us judge the health of small businesses.
Nearly Mindless Ramblings
Published April 29, 2010
On Recoveries and CAPEX Investment Cycles: Why This is Different
Published April 26, 2010
A rising tide makes everyone a genius, even the bad managers. The improving economy is a less powerful trend than the upheavals that digital media are creating. Capital investment by printers is being affected by consolidation, the upside-down condition of interest rates, investments in new media, and a shift in industry print processes. For those waiting for the old economic and investment cycles to repeat themselves, this will be disappointing.
A Quick Look at the Economy
Published April 22, 2010
Inflation-adjusted and Annualized Publishing and Advertising Revenues
Published April 19, 2010
The trends in industry revenues of advertising and publishing sectors each tell an interesting story. They get more interesting once iPhones, Kindles, and iPads are added to the mix. Dr. Joe explains it all, but may have more questions than answers, which might spell opportunities for print businesses.
Change, the Conversation
Published April 15, 2010
Print is Not Vital but the Print Business Should Be
Published April 12, 2010
The power of print. Print is vital. Print has had longer than a decade of power outage. Print is not vital, print is a choice, and sometimes that choice is "no." Now what? In this kind of environment, the printing business becomes more important than the print medium. How that all plays out is up to our entrepreneurs. Dr. Joe explains.
Recovery Indicators Show Signs of Robust Growth: Can We Count on Them?
Published April 8, 2010
Q1 2010 Webinar Post Event Q&A
Published April 7, 2010
ISM Manufacturing Index Shows Eight Months of Growth
Published April 5, 2010
The ISM Manufacturing Index is one of the most watched economic indicators. It's up for 8 consecutive months, and the latest release was one of the strongest of this decade. Dr. Joe gives some background and explains what this latest reading means.
First, The Good News
Published March 22, 2010
Dr. Joe gives us the good news... first... and there really is some! Then he explains how some of the good news is like a Hollywood movie set: great facades, and then only braces and forms behind them, but some of it is really good. He then reminds us that turmoil creates opportunities, and turmoil also creates content. The challenge to printing entrepreneurs is to translate that to value for their businesses.
As The Industry Churns
Published March 15, 2010
The Census Bureau publishes printing industry births and deaths data, but the data take years to be published. The latest data are from 2006, but Dr. Joe estimates what's happened since,especially 2008 and 2009.
Weathering the Employment and Printing Shipments Data
Published March 8, 2010
The employment report was better than the cable channel talking heads thought it would be. Printing shipments continued their unfortunate relationship with economic growth. The Postal Service continues a summer sale initiative that only fat cats can like.
Recovery Indicators Take Another Sidestep
Published March 4, 2010
Just When I Thought We Were Becoming Japan, Stagflation Seems More Likely Again
Published February 22, 2010
Is the U.S. Economy playing out like 1990s Japan or 1970s U.S. stagflation? Dr. Joe changes his mind... again. All it took was the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index releases of last week. Well, so much for his lecturing about the tendency of managers to react to the last thing they hear rather than pondering things. He also suggests buying oil with gold might be a good idea after looking at the last 20 years of data. That should be interesting to try during the New England heating season when the oil truck stops by. And if you thought Keynes was dead, you should see his new rap video with Frederich A. Hayek. If dead economists can make a rap video, can Elvis be far behind?
Marketing Services is the Easy Answer, Just Like Buying New Equipment Always Was
Published February 17, 2010
Broadband hours and the statistical relationship with printing volumes
Published February 15, 2010
Broadband use by adults has been increasing and the number of households with broadband service has almost doubled since 2005. What's the relationship with commercial printing volume? Last year, there were about 48 billion hours of broadband use by households, and every additional hour of use decreases commercial print volume by about $2.
How Printing Industry Employment has Changed Since 2000
Published February 10, 2010
Nothing Confuses Like Statistics
Published February 8, 2010
Things are not always what they seem, especially when statistics are involved. How else can one explain a GDP report of +5.7% and a decrease in the unemployment rate being matched with long faces and pessimism? The economic side-step is continuing, and a mild upturn is being viewed with suspicion. Every time there's good economic data, it seems to barely survive the headline and first paragraph of its press release without devolving into adjustments, revisions, and clarifications. Our job as managers is not just requiring navigation skills, but seems to need a refresher course in defensive driving.
Is the Recovery Sputtering Already? Caution is the Word
Published February 3, 2010
Year/Year US Gross Domestic Product
Published February 1, 2010
Why was Q4-09 GDP +5.7% met with a stock market decline and more handwringing about the economy? Dr. Joe looks at the yearly change in GDP, and explains it all.
Disrupting the Future
Published February 1, 2010
A contrarian look at the printing industry and the new rules and strategies needed to succeed.
Apple's iPad, a Great Leap Forward of... The Same Trends We Already Knew
Published January 28, 2010
Newspaper Industry Woes Not Being Cured By Online Revenues
Published January 25, 2010
Newspapers were supposed to survive the new media age because of their highly educated, high income audience, and then when that didn't work, their superior content would make news websites into Internet advertising magnets. Now, even online advertising is shrinking for newspapers. What's next?
Adjusting Your Company Financials for Inflation, And Why You Should Do It
Published January 20, 2010
Same Old, Same Old is Getting Tiresome
Published January 18, 2010
Dr. Joe starts his eighth year with WhatTheyThink, and he's less Dr. Doom-ish. There are some signs, though not confirmed, that the industry may have finally finished riding a steep and traumatic downdraft and found a steadier level with a more gradual and predictable outcome. November shipments were down at the lowest rate of any month in 2009, and there were only 100 fewer print workers in December than there were in November. The national economy still has its problems, employment is actually worse than most realize, and incomes are still under pressure. The Bureau of Labor Statistics forecast print employment for 2018, and their forecast is, unfortunately, already fulfilled.
The Recovery Indicators: Sideways is Better than Down
Published January 14, 2010
Dr. Joe Answers Economic Webinar Questions ? Part 2 of 2
Published December 15, 2009
Commerical Printing and Services Shipments 2003-2015
Published December 14, 2009
Dr. Joe Answers Economic Webinar Questions ? Part 1 of 2
Published December 10, 2009
Oh, Those Cable TV Talking Heads
Published December 7, 2009
You'd think that all of the economic wounds of the U.S. economy were healed all at once when last Friday's unemployment report was announced. For some reason, the good news in it was glossed over, and the bad news was ignored.
Number of US Commercial Printing and Print Services Establishments 2003-2015
Published December 7, 2009
Is It Good or Bad: Make Up Your Mind Already!
Published December 2, 2009
Change In Number Of Employees For Commerical Printing & Services
Published November 30, 2009
If You Can't Do It Well, Don't Do It
Published November 18, 2009
Let's Be Strategically Social
Published November 16, 2009
Where did Dr. Joe go when he was stumped about social media? Amazingly, he used social media. Social media is not one big online cocktail party or teenagers arranging to meet up at the mall. It's real business that requires a strategy, and it's more like broadcasting than it is a one-time project. The rules for social media are still being written through trial and error every day, and it's brought new focus to public relations professionals. Dr. Joe recommends some resources to take a decisive step into this critical new area of business and social communications.
Canada's Printing Industry as a Percentage of GDP
Published November 16, 2009
Are You on a Treadmill or are You Running the Race?
Published November 12, 2009
Dr Joe Encounters Windows 7
Published November 9, 2009
That Was the Economic Week That Was
Published November 9, 2009
The talking heads were shocked that unemployment hit 10.2%, but had they read the news all week, it would have been no surprise. There was news that almost seemed good in the report, but despite—or perhaps because of—their shock, the talking heads missed it. The Federal Reserve is doing its best Nero imitation as the dollar weakens, and they keep mistaking credit for capital. Don't tell the paper companies, but instead of wasting time complaining about China, they should be focusing on helping their customers deal with competition from digital media. Are they taking Nero lessons from Ben Bernanke?
September 2009 Commercial Printing Shipments
Published November 9, 2009
Recovery or Not? The Latest WhatTheyThink ERC Recovery Indicators
Published November 4, 2009
An Action-Packed Week Ahead, If You Love Economic Data
Published November 2, 2009
Economy geeks just love weeks like this. The beginning of the month has some of the most incredible data from the Institute for Supply Management, the Commerce Department, and especially, the Bureau of Labor Statistics. All of the data are highly charged politically, and it's hard to see through the fog to assess what's right. But these macroeconomic data don't really matter when you're running a business. It's important to keep them in the right perspective.
Use of Social Media Services by Commercial Printers by employee size
Published November 2, 2009
Use of Social Media Services by Commercial Printers by employee size
GDP +3.5%: Beware the Cheerleaders
Published October 29, 2009
A Flood of E-Books?
Published October 26, 2009
E-books are not books, they're e-commerce sites that let you read books. Small businesses are cutting their ad budgets but increasing their digital spending. What the government statisticians giveth one week, they taketh away the next week. The Road Warrior thinks you shouldn't buy Windows 7, but buy a new computer instead, unless you're a Linux geek like he is. You know you're getting old when Patty Duke is making Social Security commercials and you can remember a time when the price of a color scanner had a comma, and there were five zeroes in the price.
Use of Social Media Services by U.S. Commercial Printers
Published October 26, 2009
Are the Economists Becoming Whining Losers?
Published October 22, 2009
Not Every Day is Easy When You're in Recovery
Published October 19, 2009
The bumpy bottom is just that. When things improve, how do we know it's for real? If we just consult our lucky numbers, we may feel good. But we have to look past the attractiveness and take an objective look at what these lucky numbers really mean. If lucky numbers aren't lucky, then the real numbers should be better. Real numbers can be just as murky, especially when they deal with employment. Could Dr. Joe be wrong about stagflation? He takes a new look and explains it all.
Federal Reserve NAICS 323 Capacity Utilization Data
Published October 19, 2009
Leave the Baggage Behind, and Cover the Rear-view Mirror
Published October 14, 2009
Planning Often Gets in the Way of Running Business Well
Published October 12, 2009
I finally got to one of those books in my “to read when I find some time” pile, Strategy Bites Back, published in early 2005. The principal author is Henry Mintzberg, whose Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning, published in 1994, skewered, barbecued, and devoured the strategic planning process quite mightily. This newer book does so in a far more entertaining manner. It is a collection of short articles and excerpts craftily assembled for one purpose only: to make one think. I recommend reading it, and here’s why.
Newspaper Industry Woes Not Being Cured by Online Revenues
Published October 12, 2009
Twenty-five Years
Published October 7, 2009
I Said the Bottom Would be Bumpy
Published October 5, 2009
Friday's unemployment report was very discouraging, but news reports weren't discouraging enough. That doesn't mean there isn't good news: recent manufacturing data have some signs of encouragement. The most encouraging thing would be the acknowledgment that businesspeople taking risks is what will ultimately grow the economy, and nothing else. Chaos is good... especially if there are 30 days of it.
Percentage of Printers That Promote Themselves as Marketing Services, Communications Graphics or Media Management Businesses
Published October 5, 2009
Thoughts on Endurance, Mergers, and Shows, Oh My!
Published September 29, 2009
What's Up with the Economy?
Published September 28, 2009
Expectations often shape the perception of what are supposedly good data, and sometimes good data just are not what they are cracked up to be. Bad selling from memorized scripts could be handled by automatons. In some cases, that might be an improvement. Up-selling, when poorly done, is probably one of the aspects of sales that undermines confidence of buyers, especially first-time customers, making them unlikely to become second-time clients.
Effects of a 2-percentage point difference in mailing list decay rates
Published September 28, 2009
Dr. Joe Random Written Ramblings
Published September 23, 2009
The Media Matrix: Rampant Opportunities for Printers, But Not Necessarily for Print
Published September 21, 2009
The matrix, not of the movie kind, puts it all together. The New Printer has New Opportunities, but requires the insights of the entrepreneur to dive into this confusing, changing, and ultimately rewarding marketplace.
Price Changes in Paper, Commerical Printing, Computers, Cellular, ISPs
Published September 21, 2009
Public Relations Employees as a Percentage of Total Advertising Agency Employment
Published September 14, 2009
Dr. Joe Answers Xerox Opportunity Questions
Published September 10, 2009
E-Commerce as a Percentage of US Total Retail Sales and Inflation-adjusted US Commercial Printing Shipments
Published September 7, 2009
Caution = Inertia; Cautious Optimism Still Steps Forward
Published September 6, 2009
Reading Past the First Paragraph Seems to be a Rare Skill
Published September 2, 2009
Print's New Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Published August 31, 2009
Last week, I discussed how the common wisdom benefits of print as enumerated as recently as 2006 and 2007, were crumbling because of several trends: l consumer Internet volume had passed business volume in 2008
Capital Expenditures as a Percentage of Shipments by Printing Industry Segment
Published August 31, 2009
Cleaning out Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published August 25, 2009
In the Current and Emerging Era of Rampant Connectivity and Social Media, Where Do Print's Benefits Stand Now?
Published August 24, 2009
Back in 2006 I discussed the benefits of print as they stood at that time. Just think: last year, consumer Internet traffic surpassed business traffic; the iPhone was introduced in mid-2007 and the Kindle in 2008; social media did not exist for all practical purposes, and it now is 10 minutes of every hour consumers spend online. Add the downdraft of a worldwide recession, and you have listed every reason for every B2C, B2B, and all other organizations to re-cast their media plans and expectations. Here is where those some of those benefits now stand and the impact these forces have had on them; this is followed by some discussion about what this all means to our industry:
Capital Expenditures by Printing Industry Segment
Published August 24, 2009
Don't Tweak, Pre-build Instead
Published August 19, 2009
Shipments of Secondary Products & Misc. Receipts by Printing Industry
Published August 17, 2009
I Told You This Was Going to Happen
Published August 17, 2009
The news reports were so predictable. “The government's index of prices paid by consumers was unchanged in July from the previous month, but the closely watched inflation gauge recorded its largest over-the-year decline in 59 years.” That's the way CNN said it on Friday.
Why Micro-, Small, and Mid-size Businesses are Essential to Commercial Printing Success, and Why that Disrupts the Foundations of Our Business
Published August 12, 2009
Hyping a Recovery Doesn't Help Anyone, Until You Actually Have One
Published August 10, 2009
There is such a desire for good economic news that the press and others plant the good news at the top of the story and then hide the details in plain sight in paragraph 3, where they know no one will find it.
Change in Number of U.S. Commercial Printing Employees Per Establishment
Published August 10, 2009
This Bottom is Bumpy
Published August 5, 2009
Doctor, When Will I Feel Better?
Published August 3, 2009
As far as excitement goes for economy watchers, the first full week of any month is as good as it gets. That's what dull lives we economists lead.
Change in Number of U.S. Commercial Printing Employees
Published August 3, 2009
A Philosopher Once Said
Published July 30, 2009
Dr. Joe Speech at IGAEA, Eastern Kentucky University
Published July 27, 2009
It's About Time We Got Smart About Chaos
Published July 27, 2009
On August 3, Advertising Age columnist Bob Garfield's book, Chaos Scenario, will be released. The content has been previewed for a quite a while, and I cited it a few years back. Since the time of his first column about it, titled “A Look at the Marketing Industry's Coming Disaster,” much of what he projected has come to pass.
Change in Number of U.S. Commercial Printing Establishments
Published July 27, 2009
The E-Book Business is Back for Barnes & Noble: Now What?
Published July 22, 2009
US Commercial Printing Annual Payroll Per Employee
Published July 20, 2009
When Demand Rises, Prices Rise; When Demand Falls, Prices Fall
Published July 20, 2009
That's the basic law of economics when the supply of a good or service is constant. There's been some discussion of late about the scarcity of print workers and the need for many thousands of them. One of the clues as to whether or not there is true demand for or a shortage of workers is the change in wage levels that the marketplace offers. If wages are up, there is greater demand for workers; and if wages are down, there is obviously not. Wages are the prices set by the interaction of workers and employers in a marketplace for long-term work. Higher wages attract workers who had previously been outside the industry; lower wages inside one industry send discouraged workers elsewhere.
Mixing Up Capital With Credit, Inflation Growing, and Print's Trade Surplus
Published July 15, 2009
Daddy, What Was it Like Before the Recession?
Published July 13, 2009
Commerical Printing Shipments, 2002 vs. 2007
Published July 13, 2009
Recovery Indicators Still Stagnant
Published July 8, 2009
Should Printers Watch the Stock Market for an Upturn Clue?
Published July 1, 2009
Navigate, Don't Fear: Random Thoughts
Published June 29, 2009
Net new businesses, 12-month moving average
Published June 29, 2009
Are Printers Rational?
Published June 22, 2009
Change in Newspaper Advertising Revenue
Published June 22, 2009
June 10 Economic Webinar Q&A
Published June 15, 2009
Current Dollar/Year Change in Corporate Cash Flow
Published June 15, 2009
AIGA Designer Confidence Index
Published June 8, 2009
Welcome to Bizarro Economics Class
Published June 8, 2009
One Recovery Indicator Breaks to the Upside but Three Decline
Published June 3, 2009
Tough Thoughts for Tough Times
Published June 1, 2009
Change in Real GDP, CPI-adjusted Print Shipments & Paper Shipments
Published June 1, 2009
Missing Any Opportunities?
Published May 27, 2009
Rate of Change in Employment in Content Creation Segments
Published May 25, 2009
Where Does Print Media Fit? It's Up to Us.
Published May 20, 2009
Is Stagflation Here?
Published May 18, 2009
Change in Total Employment, March vs. April 1990-2009, US Commercial Printing
Published May 18, 2009
Beware the Economic Common Wisdom
Published May 13, 2009
Why Industry Profits Will be Tough to Come By
Published May 11, 2009
Thousands of Net New Businesses Per Month
Published May 11, 2009
When Will Things Get Better? Perhaps Soon, According to Our Indicators
Published May 5, 2009
Entrepreneurship is Not Dead
Published May 4, 2009
Change in Real US GDP on a Year/Year Basis
Published May 4, 2009
Why the Post-Recession Printing Business will Be Quite Different
Published April 29, 2009
Why the Post-Recession Printing Business will Be Quite Different
Published April 29, 2009
Unfortunately, Things are What They Seem
Published April 27, 2009
Percentage of Printers Increasing Participation in Local Business Events, Trade Shows
Published April 27, 2009
Dr. Joe talks to Peter Muir about "Renewing the Printing Industry"
Published April 22, 2009
Without Print, Will Online-only Newspapers Suffer? ... and Other Stuff
Published April 22, 2009
Why Telling Businesspeople to "Embrace Change" is Meaningless
Published April 20, 2009
Percentage of Printers Using Direct Mail Promotional Campaigns to Promote Business
Published April 20, 2009
No Matter How You Slice It, It's Still Baloney
Published April 15, 2009
The Business “Annuity Trap”
Published April 13, 2009
Investment Intentions of Commercial Printers with 10-49 Employees
Published April 13, 2009
Interrogating Dr. Joe: The Sequel
Published April 6, 2009
2009: The Year of “Things are Less Worse”
Published April 6, 2009
Printers Intending to Invest in Web-to-Print
Published April 6, 2009
Interrogating Dr. Joe
Published April 2, 2009
On Demand 2009
Published March 31, 2009
Percentage of US Commercial Printers Renegotiating Leases, Loans and other Financing
Published March 30, 2009
More Q&A from the March 25 Economic Webinar
Published March 25, 2009
Jobless Claims as a Percentage of the Civilian Workforce
Published March 23, 2009
Changing the Approach
Published March 23, 2009
Getting Past the Template
Published March 18, 2009
One Newspaper Fights Back... in Color!
Published March 16, 2009
Change in US Commerical Printing Employment 2002,2005,2008
Published March 16, 2009
Thoughts and Rants that Run Through My Head
Published March 11, 2009
Economics Data You're Not Seeing
Published March 9, 2009
Change in US Commerical Printing Establishments 2004-2009
Published March 9, 2009
Recovery Indicators Take a Mild Beating
Published March 4, 2009
The Swamp Got Deeper
Published March 2, 2009
U.S. Commerical Printing's Relationship to GDP
Published March 2, 2009
Get Ready for the Post-Recession Printing Industry... Whenever that May Be
Published February 25, 2009
How to Remain viable in the Communications Marketplace
Published February 23, 2009
Federal Reserve Commercial Printing Capacity Utilization
Published February 23, 2009
Price Cutting and Print Competition
Published February 17, 2009
The Stimulus Passed... Now What
Published February 16, 2009
Size of the U.S. Printing Industry Compared to other Industries
Published February 16, 2009
Media Shifts Evidenced in Employment Data: Public Relations Emerges from the Shadows
Published February 11, 2009
You Have to Look Under the Hood
Published February 9, 2009
Change in Employment December 2003 vs. December 2008
Published February 9, 2009
Are We There Yet?
Published February 4, 2009
Mischaracterizing the Economy
Published February 2, 2009
Change in Revenues for Commercial and Quick Printers with 50+ Employees
Published February 2, 2009
A Poorly Printed Book: Maybe We Should Ask Why
Published January 28, 2009
Welcome to the "Offline Media" Business
Published January 26, 2009
Change in Revenues for Commercial and Quick Printers with 10-49 Employees
Published January 26, 2009
Dr. Joe Interviews Dr. Michael Cunningham
Published January 23, 2009
Dr. Joe's Economic Recovery Plan
Published January 19, 2009
So, Dr. Joe, Where's All That Inflation You Warned Us About?
Published January 19, 2009
Change in Revenues for Commercial and Quick Printers with 1-9 Employees
Published January 19, 2009
Change in Revenues for Commercial and Quick Printers with 1-9 Employees
Difference in Revenue Trends Among General Commercial Printers vs. Digital Commercial Printers
Published January 15, 2009
When Will Things Get Better?
Published January 14, 2009
Time to Recalibrate Our Resolutions
Published January 12, 2009
Odds and Ends as We Close Out 2008
Published December 17, 2008
Does “Marketing Services” Make a Difference?
Published December 15, 2008
Capacity Utilization in 20+ Year Decline
Published December 15, 2008
Answers to December 10th's Webinar Questions
Published December 10, 2008
Recessions and Technological Change
Published December 8, 2008
Business Confidence of Leading Graphic Designers
Published December 8, 2008
Twenty-five Years
Published December 1, 2008
Change in Publishing and Content Creation Employment
Published December 1, 2008
The Economy: More stuffing than turkey
Published November 25, 2008
Births and Deaths of U.S. Commercial Printing Establishments
Published November 24, 2008
Trudging Through the Economic Swampland
Published November 24, 2008
Catching Up with the Economy and Optimistic Old Media Guys
Published November 18, 2008
The Postal Service Blames the Economy for Its Shortfall; Don't Believe It
Published November 17, 2008
Education and the Graphic Arts: What's Next?
Published November 17, 2008
Technology Waits for No One, When the Market Goes One Way, Be Sure to Go the Other Way
Published November 12, 2008
4-quarter Change in Net Sales of Publicly Traded Commercial Printers
Published November 10, 2008
Planning Often Gets in the Way of Running Business Well
Published November 10, 2008
News, Unproven Illusions, and Plain Speaking
Published November 4, 2008
Number of U.S. Graphic Design Establishments
Published November 4, 2008
Entrepreneurs are not Pessimists; Reality Matters
Published November 3, 2008
Old Age and Treachery... and Youth and Skill
Published October 29, 2008
Number of U.S. Advertising Agency Establishments
Published October 27, 2008
Increased Materials Costs Paid with Lower Wages and Steeply Lower Profits
Published October 22, 2008
Number of U.S. Periodical Publishing Establishments
Published October 20, 2008
Here We Go Again... Pass the Antacid
Published October 20, 2008
Number of U.S. Newspaper Pulishing Establishments, by number of employees
Published October 13, 2008
Reading the Debris Instead of the Tea Leaves
Published October 12, 2008
Tenure of The Average Chief Marketing Officer is Just 26 Months: Why That's Great News for Printers
Published October 6, 2008
Number of U.S. Commerical Printing Establishments, by number of employees
Published October 6, 2008
We've Made the Turn: Not Recession, It's Worse
Published October 5, 2008
Ignore the Economics and Move on as Best You Can
Published October 1, 2008
Renewing the Printing Industry
Published October 1, 2008
Renewing the Printing Industry: Strategies and Action Items for Success.
Change in Shipments per U.S. Commerical Printing Employee, 1994-2008
Published September 29, 2008
The Future is More Certain Than Usually Thought
Published September 29, 2008
How to Renew Our Industry... Again
Published September 24, 2008
Inflation is Dead: The World is Safe for Commerce Again... No, Not Really
Published September 22, 2008
Changes in Employment 1994-2008 in Various Packaging Sectors
Published September 22, 2008
Road Warrior: Today, Sept. 20, is Software Freedom Day
Published September 20, 2008
Turmoil in the Financial Markets... Again.
Published September 18, 2008
Turmoil in the Financial Markets... Again.
Published September 15, 2008
Paper Industry Shipments and Profits
Published September 15, 2008
Who Bears the Brunt of Bad Forecasting? Rarely the Forecasters!
Published September 15, 2008
Beware the iPhone: It's a Way of Avoiding Print
Published September 10, 2008
Newspaper Industry Woes Not Being Cured by Online Revenues
Published September 8, 2008
Slow Economic Growth Teases Us; High Inflation Bludgeons Us
Published September 8, 2008
Road Warrior: Are You Measuring the Right Things?
Published September 2, 2008
Which Commerical Printers Groups are Most Interested in Web-to-Print Storefronts and Infrastructure
Published September 1, 2008
Embracing Change is Dumb Because Change is Always Happening
Published August 27, 2008
Average Hourly Earnings of Commerical Printing Production Workers
Published August 25, 2008
Inflation is Here and Don't We All Know It
Published August 25, 2008
Dr. Joe Hits a Postal Nerve: Playing Football with Baseball Bats?
Published August 18, 2008
Publicly Traded Printers: 4-quarter Inflation-adjusted Change in Net Sales
Published August 18, 2008
If Planning Is So Good, How Come Performance is So Bad?
Published August 18, 2008
Reality and the Postal Service Don't Mix
Published August 13, 2008
Consumer Magazine Ad Pages
Published August 11, 2008
The Economy Will Be All Better Now: Yeah, Right
Published August 11, 2008
Desktop Publishing's Legacy: 230,000 Fewer Commercial Printing Workers, and An Explosion in Content Creation Workers
Published August 7, 2008
Desktop Publishing's Legacy: 230,000 Fewer Commercial Printing Workers, and An Explosion in Content Creation Workers
Published August 7, 2008
Which Commercial Printers Groups are Most Interested in VDP and PURL Software
Published August 4, 2008
The Economic Sidestep
Published August 4, 2008
Cost Cutting is a Downhill Street with a Cliff at the End
Published July 30, 2008
Can't The Economy Make Up its Mind?
Published July 28, 2008
Which Commercial Printer Groups are Most Interested in Production Mid- and High-Volume Digital Color Printing
Published July 28, 2008
The Russians Are Coming? Is Heidelberg Kidding? No.
Published July 23, 2008
What Commercial Printers With 50+ Employees are Doing In Response to the Slow Economy
Published July 21, 2008
Recession or Not: Not is Still Ahead
Published July 21, 2008
Inflation Data Get Worse, and the Fed Won't Clean Up the Mess
Published July 16, 2008
Don't Worry, Things May Get Worse…or They May Not
Published July 14, 2008
What Commercial Printers With 10-49 Employees are Doing In Response to the Slow Economy
Published July 14, 2008
What Commercial Printers With 1-9 Employees are Doing In Response to the Slow Economy
Published July 7, 2008
Stagflation is Here: It Will Be Nasty; and Some Random Rants
Published July 5, 2008
Industry Trends Just a Click Away
Published June 30, 2008
Net New Businesses
Published June 30, 2008
Rate of Change in Employment in Printing and Content Creation Industries
Published June 23, 2008
The 6/18 Economic Webinar: Dr. Joe's Reading List
Published June 18, 2008
More Inflation News, and a Comment About "Obscene" Profits
Published June 17, 2008
Annualized Publishing and Advertising Revenues
Published June 16, 2008
Finally, The Fed Discovers Inflation
Published June 16, 2008
Inflation Adjusted US Commerical Print Shipments
Published June 9, 2008
The Supposed Recession: Get Used to Not Having One
Published June 9, 2008
Thirty Years Ago This Date
Published June 5, 2008
The Press and the Experts... Getting it Wrong... Again
Published June 2, 2008
Graphic Designer Business Confidence versus Consumer Confidence
Published June 2, 2008
Recession Mongers Disappointed Again
Published May 29, 2008
Commerce Department Revisions to U.S. Printing Shipments Data
Published May 19, 2008
Commerce Department Revises Seven Years of Data: A New Look at Industry Trends
Published May 19, 2008
Picking on the Post Office: Mail Volume
Published May 12, 2008
Odds & Ends, and the "Other" Dr. Joe
Published May 7, 2008
Inflation-Adjusted Sales of Major Printers
Published May 5, 2008
Positively Disappointing
Published May 5, 2008
GDP Not Negative, and Fed Acts
Published April 30, 2008
The Other Shoe Has Dropped
Published April 28, 2008
Federal Reserve Capacity Utilization
Published April 28, 2008
Best of Dr. Joe: The Forecasting Game
Published April 21, 2008
Is Digital More Environmentally Friendly Than Offset?
Published April 21, 2008
Again, Recession Mongers are Disappointed; More Odds & Ends
Published April 17, 2008
Odds and Ends: Don't Get Dr. Joe Started!
Published April 15, 2008
Paper Industry Shipments and Profits
Published April 14, 2008
Inflation and Its Discontents
Published April 14, 2008
Recession or Not? Indicators Say No
Published April 7, 2008
Shipments per Establishment Change Data
Published April 7, 2008
Shipments, Profits, Amazon.com, and Poor Financials
Published April 3, 2008
Profits Report Out, Disappointing
Published April 2, 2008
Printing Sales Per Employee 1994-2007
Published March 31, 2008
Questions and Answers from Last Week's Webinar
Published March 31, 2008
Commercial Printers in U.S. Not Prepared for Inflationary Environment
Published March 24, 2008
Economic Outlook Webinar; Social Networking; Big News From GM
Published March 24, 2008
The Fed, China, and GM... and GM's News is More Important
Published March 18, 2008
Economic Outlook Webinar; Dr. Joe's InBox; Road Warrior
Published March 17, 2008
Rate of Change in Pieces Mailed by USPS (2000-2007)
Published March 17, 2008
Economy; Printing Shipments; Annual Growth
Published March 10, 2008
Web-to-Print Storefronts As Key Investment Area,By Segment
Published March 10, 2008
Dr. Joe's Secret Notes about Digital Printing from OnDemand Expo
Published March 8, 2008
January Printing Shipments -- Please, Can We Change the Subject?
Published March 5, 2008
Broadband: Contributing to a Decline in Print
Published March 3, 2008
High End Digital Color As Key Investment Area
Published March 3, 2008
Full-company MIS Essential for Long-Term Survival
Published February 25, 2008
The Best of Dr. Joe: Quebecor Shakeup
Published February 25, 2008
Web-to-Print Storefronts As Key Investment Area
Published February 25, 2008
Print's Prices are Declining: Just Not Enough
Published February 19, 2008
MIS As Key Investment Area
Published February 18, 2008
ROI is Overrated, Media of a New Generation
Published February 18, 2008
Common Wisdom Makes for Bad Excuses
Published February 11, 2008
Commercial Printing Prices Lag Inflation
Published February 11, 2008
2007's Printing Shipments; Students are Smarter than the Teachers
Published February 11, 2008
December Printing Shipments +$110 Million; +1.3% for Year; Inflation-adjusted Results Disappoint
Published February 4, 2008
Graphic Design and Ad Agency Employment, '07 vs. '06
Published February 4, 2008
Slow is Not a Recession; USPS Shipments Down
Published February 4, 2008
Internet Shakeup, and Economic Data Disappoint
Published February 1, 2008
Dr. Joe Asks "Is This 1974 Again?"...and Comments About "That Video"
Published January 28, 2008
Expectation of 2008 Commercial Printing Sales by Employees Size
Published January 28, 2008
Calling it "Pretty Ugly" Was Optimistic
Published January 22, 2008
2007 Commercial Printing Sales by Primary Business Segment
Published January 21, 2008
Latest Economic News: Not Pretty, Not Ugly, But Actually Pretty Ugly
Published January 16, 2008
2007 Commercial Printing Sales by Employee Size
Published January 14, 2008
Goldman Sachs; Your Company's Financial Performance; Lack of Data Myth
Published January 14, 2008
Trade Deficit Up, But Not Because We Imported More Goods
Published January 11, 2008
Did Commercial Printers Report Sales Increases in '07?
Published January 7, 2008
Starting the Year With an Economic Mess; Printing Shipments Up; Economic News Disappoints
Published January 7, 2008
The Parade Still Went On, Proving that Print is "Old Media"
Published January 6, 2008
Commercial Printing Shipments Disappoint; So Does ISM Manufacturing
Published January 3, 2008
Stock Buybacks: A Dissenting Opinion; Dr. Joe's Inbox - See You in 2008
Published December 17, 2007
No Change in E-Commerce and Commercial Print Relationship
Published December 17, 2007
Subprime dominates; Printing shipments almost encouraging
Published December 10, 2007
Change in magazine circulation, population growth, and magazine titles
Published December 10, 2007
October Commercial Printing Industry Shipments Up +$253 Million
Published December 5, 2007
Offshoring and the Decline of Manufacturing Jobs in the US
Published December 3, 2007
Wishful Thinking; E-Books; Inbox; Road Warrior
Published December 3, 2007
Canada Mailing Trends: Rate of Change in Number of Pieces
Published December 3, 2007
Don't Get Excited Over 4.9% GDP Growth
Published November 30, 2007
Comparing Small Versus Large Printers' Most Important Digital Printing Attribute
Published November 26, 2007
A Foot on the Throat; Trade and Commodities; Dr Joe's Inbox; Missing software
Published November 26, 2007
Stock Buybacks are Disappointing... or Worse
Published November 20, 2007
Change in Commercial Printing Employment Since 1994
Published November 19, 2007
What Effect Does Digitization Really Have on Printing?
Published November 19, 2007
ROAD WARRIOR: Free Software is Quite Impressive and Recommended
Published November 12, 2007
Employment down; decision makers shifting to digital media; iPhone gPhone; new tools draw new workers
Published November 12, 2007
Where are "Net New Businesses" Being Created?
Published November 12, 2007
The Trade Poison Pen Letter: A Response
Published November 10, 2007
Of Course the Trade Gap Narrowed... The Economy is Slow
Published November 9, 2007
Total Debt Out of Control?
Published November 8, 2007
Monday's Non-Manufacturing Report Is Reassuring... and Other Items
Published November 5, 2007
Canada's Commercial Printing and GDP
Published November 5, 2007
Economic Data a Mess; Printing Shipments; Industry Education Needs Our Support
Published November 5, 2007
Printing Shipments Up, Economic Data Disappointing
Published November 2, 2007
Fed Cuts by Quarter Point, and GDP +3.8%
Published October 31, 2007
Please, Not Another Rate Cut
Published October 30, 2007
A Crisis in Print Buying? Dr. Joe Disagrees.
Published October 29, 2007
Print: Cheaper Every Day?
Published October 29, 2007
Best of Dr Joe: Comparing Technologies of the Past; More PR Euphemisms
Published October 22, 2007
Exports of Commercial Printing
Published October 22, 2007
Look at Magazine Revenue Increase Data with a Skeptical Eye
Published October 16, 2007
Ready for $100 Oil?
Published October 15, 2007
Imports of Commercial Printing
Published October 15, 2007
Industry Employment Data; Comparing Us to Them; Dr Joe is Cynical; Catalogers Embrace the Internet; GM Thinking applied to Printing Industry
Published October 15, 2007
Deja Vu All Over Again
Published October 8, 2007
Color Digital Printing Demand by Shop Size
Published October 8, 2007
The Unemployment Report That Won't Be in the Newspapers
Published October 5, 2007
Printing Shipments in August Up Slightly, and Other News
Published October 4, 2007
ROAD WARRIOR: Beware Ye Excel 2007 Users!
Published October 3, 2007
The Sky's Not Falling, It's Just a Little Loose
Published October 2, 2007
Births and Deaths of Commercial Printing Establishment
Published October 1, 2007
Q&A Economic Outlook Webinar; mortgage fiasco; effect of printing standardization on prices and print volumes; future growth of digital production color printing
Published October 1, 2007
WhatTheyThink Economic Outlook Webinar
Published September 24, 2007
Economic Outlook Webinar, the iPhone is a Computer, Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published September 24, 2007
Paper Industry Shipments and Profits
Published September 24, 2007
Fed Cuts Rates a Half Point... Just Like We Wanted, Not Like We Forecast
Published September 18, 2007
GE07: Mondays with Dr. Joe Webb: Graph Expo, Who Should Go To Shows?, Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published September 17, 2007
Printing as a Percentage of GDP
Published September 17, 2007
Excellent Print Profits Reported for Q2-2007
Published September 10, 2007
Freelance Employment Growth
Published September 10, 2007
The Unemployment Report that's Not Being Reported
Published September 7, 2007
You Won't Read This Economic Analysis Anywhere Else
Published September 6, 2007
Road Warrior: Acer Buys Gateway; Forced to Use Windows by Court Order
Published September 5, 2007
How Printing is Performing Compared to Other Manufacturing Industries?
Published September 4, 2007
Pricing Changes and the Influence of Competition
Published September 3, 2007
July Printing Shipments Up $138 Million, and a Comment about Yesterday's Q2 GDP Revision
Published August 31, 2007
The Fed is Ready to Make a Real Cut
Published August 29, 2007
Using time better, Fed Faux Pas, Email Effectiveness, Social Networking, and Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published August 27, 2007
E-Commerce Still a Growth Business
Published August 27, 2007
Make Up Your Mind Already
Published August 26, 2007
Now All Economic Data Will Be Suspect for a While
Published August 21, 2007
Collaboration in New Media and Social Networking, Having a Cow over Rupert, and Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published August 20, 2007
Rates of Change in Employment
Published August 20, 2007
The Fed Blinks
Published August 17, 2007
The Growing Service Economy Sectors
Published August 13, 2007
Just when you think the panic is over, sideways is our way, and why I don't get digital magazines
Published August 13, 2007
Rate of Change in Postal Weight
Published August 13, 2007
Yawwwwwnnnnn..... Fed Doesn't Move
Published August 7, 2007
Which way is up?, Printing shipments, GDP and print
Published August 6, 2007
Net New Business Growth
Published August 6, 2007
Road Warrior: Switching from Windows to Linux
Published August 5, 2007
June Printing Shipments Flat Compared to 2006
Published August 2, 2007
The Changing Mix of Graphic Design Employees and Freelancers
Published July 30, 2007
Best of Dr. Joe: Translation Services
Published July 30, 2007
Was Adobe's Action an Attempt to Monetize Free Content?
Published July 29, 2007
When data contradict, Chairman Ben, and Industry Stocks
Published July 23, 2007
Capital expenditure on used equipment drops
Published July 23, 2007
Offense or Defense? Free Almost No-brainer Marketing
Published July 16, 2007
Change in value of imports and exports
Published July 16, 2007
More on the Adobe Kerfuffle
Published July 9, 2007
Seasonality in the Commercial Printing Business
Published July 9, 2007
That Confounding Economy, iPhone liftoff, and the Adobe Thing
Published July 9, 2007
May Printing Shipments Down -$165 Million, -1.9%
Published July 5, 2007
Adobe and Kinko's - printing industry kerfuffle
Published July 2, 2007
Publishing and Advertising Revenues
Published July 2, 2007
Content King?, The Content-Distribution Bridge, and Being Well Qualified
Published June 25, 2007
Fed Capacity Utilization Data
Published June 25, 2007
Can Someone Make Up Their Minds?, Profits Moving Sideways, Those Were the Days, and Admirable Printers
Published June 18, 2007
Commercial Printing Output and Production Hours
Published June 18, 2007
Industry profits up 20% in First Quarter
Published June 12, 2007
Is The Internet's Downward Pressure on Print Shipments Over?
Published June 11, 2007
Printing Shipments, Economy Bounceback?, ad:tech, and Summer Reading
Published June 11, 2007
April Printing Shipments +2.2%
Published June 4, 2007
GDP & Print Revisited on Rate of Change Basis
Published June 4, 2007
Dr. Joe Interviews Dr. Michael Cunningham (Audio)
Published June 4, 2007
Sideways is Considered Good News
Published June 1, 2007
The Postal Service, Magazines, and Korea... huh?
Published May 31, 2007
Digging Into the Commerce Department's Major Revisions to Commercial Printing Shipments Data
Published May 29, 2007
Sweeping Revisions to Printing Shipments Data
Published May 29, 2007
Dr. Joe Webb presents "Creating New Value for Print"
Published May 23, 2007
That Darn Economy, Industry Productivity, Road Warrior
Published May 21, 2007
Productivity, Content Creation Industries, and The Postal Service
Published May 21, 2007
Paper Tariff Questions and Comments
Published May 17, 2007
What's Happened with Industry Mentoring?
Published May 16, 2007
The Fed Remains a Bystander, The Paper Tariff Issue
Published May 14, 2007
The Trade Surplus in Print is Back
Published May 14, 2007
Fed Decides that Doing Nothing is Just Right
Published May 9, 2007
Mixed Messages; Preview of April Printing Shipments
Published May 7, 2007
More on Newspapers and Whether or Not They
Published May 7, 2007
The Economy, Printing Shipments, Tax Freedom Day, and Newspapers on the Web
Published May 7, 2007
Postal Weight Rate of Change
Published May 7, 2007
Yet More Mis-Reported Employment News
Published May 6, 2007
March Printing Shipments Up +$319 million, +4.2%
Published May 2, 2007
The Economy...Zzzzz, The Halo Effect, 30 Days Notice
Published April 30, 2007
Federal Reserve Capacity Utilization
Published April 30, 2007
Q1-2007 GDP +1.3% and Other Economic Meanderings
Published April 27, 2007
Printing Industry Shipments and Profits
Published April 23, 2007
A Perspective on the Paper Tariff
Published April 20, 2007
Current Dollar and Inflation Adjusted Shipments per Employee
Published April 16, 2007
Printing Profits Up
Published April 13, 2007
More Protectionist Efforts Underway
Published April 9, 2007
Economy Looks Great? Experiment Time, Printing Shipments, and Information Explosion
Published April 9, 2007
Economy Looks Great? Experiment Time, Printing Shipments, and Information Explosion
Published April 9, 2007
Readjusting The Workforce
Published April 9, 2007
February Printing Shipments Up +1.8%
Published April 4, 2007
Magazine Circulation vs. Number of Titles
Published April 2, 2007
Best of Dr. Joe Webb: Rational Printers and Bad Salesmanship?
Published April 2, 2007
Google's April Fools Post Says More than Its Obvious Amusing Intent
Published April 1, 2007
Paper Tariff Bad for Printers, Bad for Their Customers, Bad for the Economy
Published March 31, 2007
Fed Stands Pat, Industry Capital Expenditures, Simultaneous Media, Dr. Joe's Inbox, and March 31
Published March 26, 2007
Major Printer 4th Quarter Net Sales Change
Published March 26, 2007
ad:tech, Again, Without Us
Published March 22, 2007
Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged --- Yawwwwwn!
Published March 21, 2007
Publishing and Advertising Revenues
Published March 19, 2007
Do Not Mail: Are Legislative Efforts Really Necessary?
Published March 19, 2007
The Sky is Not Falling
Published March 15, 2007
Do Not Mail Law Proposed in Many States
Published March 12, 2007
Decoding Greenspan, Postal Reform Landmines
Published March 12, 2007
Printing Production Workers
Published March 12, 2007
Employment Report Not as Rosy as the Business Press Says
Published March 9, 2007
Dr. Joe Speaks at IBSA Conference
Published March 8, 2007
January 2007 Printing Shipments +$343 million
Published March 6, 2007
January 2007 Printing Shipments +$343 million
Published March 6, 2007
Today's Notes
Published March 6, 2007
PrintForecast Sold to WhatTheyThink.com
Published March 5, 2007
An Interesting Two Weeks, GDP in Print
Published March 5, 2007
The Cost-Cutting Hero Not So Heroic?
Published February 26, 2007
Better Marketing Through Common Sense, Economic Roundup
Published February 12, 2007
Economic Roundup and Is Personalization Cracking the Foundations of Society?
Published February 5, 2007
U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up 8 Consecutive Months
Published February 2, 2007
GDP up +3.5% in Q4-2006
Published January 31, 2007
Headline Malpractice
Published January 30, 2007
The ABC’s of Forecasting
Published January 29, 2007
Economic Update, iPhone, Consolidation Issues, and Road Warrior
Published January 22, 2007
Economic Roundup, Optimized Businesses, Dr. Joe's Inbox, and Deficits are Good?
Published January 15, 2007
Printing Shipments, Economic Roundup, Taking Stock of the Industry, and What's Happening in the Creative Markets
Published January 8, 2007
Economic Roundup, Printing Profits, Postal Reform, and Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published December 18, 2006
From Manufacturing to Service to Value-Added: What Matters, What Doesn't
Published December 11, 2006
Newspapers Indicate Media Shifts and Create Strange Bedfellows,
Published December 4, 2006
Death of Milton Friedman, Economic Roundup, and A $100 Laptop
Published November 20, 2006
Economic Roundup, What Industries Are Growing?, Print Is Cheap
Published November 13, 2006
Do We Really Need Graphic Communications Education?
Published November 6, 2006
Economic Roundup, Money in Despair, E-Paper: For Real!, Small is Beautiful, and Dear Dr. Joe
Published October 30, 2006
FREE: Economic Roundup, Printing's Strong August, Keys to Print Business Success?
Published October 9, 2006
Dr. Joe at Graph Expo, Part 2: “ Print Can Be a Legitimate Spinoff from the Web”
Published October 2, 2006
"Print Can Be a Legitimate Spinoff from the Web", Let's Reinforce the Benefits of Print, What Should We Do?, and Mondays
Published September 25, 2006
Sideways Print Profits, Letters to Dr. Joe, Stock Buyback Question, Industry Blogs, and Joe's
Published September 15, 2006
Economic Roundup, Printing Shipments Up (Again!), Heidelberg Comments on Joe's Blog
Published September 8, 2006
Industry Pricing
Published August 25, 2006
Economic Roundup, Econospinning, and Why Disaster Planning Is So Important
Published August 18, 2006
Economic Roundup, Postal Service Data, and Industry Employment
Published August 11, 2006
Economic Roundup, and Dr. Joe's Siggraph Adventure
Published August 4, 2006
Economic Roundup, and Dr.Joe's Inbox
Published July 28, 2006
Economic Roundup, Forecasting Difficulty, and Dr.Joe's Inbox
Published July 21, 2006
Economic Roundup, Printing Shipments, Number of Printers, Tail Wagging, and Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published July 14, 2006
Economic Roundup, Printing Profits, Dr. Joe's Inbox, and Dr. Joe's Outbox
Published June 23, 2006
Twenty-five Years, Ask Dr. Joe
Published June 16, 2006
Economic Roundup, Printing Shipments, Q3 Webinar
Published June 9, 2006
Economic Roundup, Printing Shipments and GDP, Q3 Webinar
Published June 2, 2006
Planning Often Gets in the Way of Running Business Well, Rumor Mill on Press Mfg. Consolidation
Published May 19, 2006
Economic Roundup, Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published May 5, 2006
Price and Demand, Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published April 28, 2006
Economic Roundup, Delivering Deliverability, and Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published April 21, 2006
Economic Roundup, Printing Shipments and Profit, Dr. Joe's Inbox, and Road Warrior
Published April 7, 2006
Economic Roundup, Print and New Media, Hasbro Toying with Print, Dr. Joe's Inbox, and New Perspective on VDP
Published March 31, 2006
Why Industry Profits Will be Tough to Come By
Published March 24, 2006
Economic Roundup, E-Commerce and Print, Knight Ridder/McClatchy Deal, Dr. Joe's Inbox, and Road Warrior
Published March 17, 2006
Economic Roundup, January Printing Shipments, UK Industry Plan, and Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published March 10, 2006
Economic Roundup, Newspaper's Tough Transition, Ad Growth and Media Shift, Printed Electronics, and Beware Misleading Reporting
Published March 3, 2006
Economic Roundup, Less Important Needs, Dr. Joe's Inbox, Industry blogs, and Road Warrior
Published February 17, 2006
Syndicate, Economic Roundup, Xerox Down and Up, Questions for Dr. Joe, Road Warrior
Published February 10, 2006
"Profits Must Be a Bad Thing" - The Business Media's Economic Filter
Published February 3, 2006
Economic Roundup, GM, Ten Trends to Watch, and Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published January 27, 2006
Economic Roundup and Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published January 20, 2006
Economic Wrapup, B2B Marketers in 2006, What Bubble?, and What's Happening in Newspapers
Published January 13, 2006
Economic Roundup, Looking Ahead, and Printing Shipments
Published January 9, 2006
Economic Roundup, Printing Profits Disappoint, and Postal Rate Obsession
Published December 16, 2005
Economic Roundup, Throwing Out The Old Measuring Sticks
Published December 9, 2005
Economic Roundup, Printforecast.com, and Dr. Joe in Toronto
Published December 2, 2005
11.18.05 - Economic Roundup, Industry Profits, Profit Challengers, Offline Media, and Digital Magazine Growth
Published November 18, 2005
Economic Roundup, Periodic Shipments, Dr. Joe's Inbox, Road Warrior, and Veterans Day
Published November 11, 2005
Economic Roundup, Dr. Joe’s Inbox
Published November 4, 2005
Economic Roundup, E-brochures: Where Are the Printers?, Dr. Joe’s Inbox
Published October 28, 2005
Economic Roundup, Planning vs. Performance, Oldsters and Youngsters Online, and Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published October 14, 2005
Economic Roundup, Business Regulation, Road Warrior, and OpenOffice 2.0
Published October 7, 2005
FREE: Print05 Event Archive, Upcoming Webinar, Put Up or Shut Up, Economic Roundup
Published September 23, 2005
FREE: Economic Roundup, Print Shipments, B2B Ad Pages, and Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published September 9, 2005
They're Always Asking Me Questions, And Sometimes I Get Letters
Published August 26, 2005
Economic Roundup, Industry Capital Expenditures, Keeping Up with China, Road Warrior
Published August 19, 2005
Economic Roundup, Successful Personalization, NAA Miss The Point, Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published August 12, 2005
Economic Roundup, How The Other Three-Quarters Live, and Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published August 5, 2005
Economic Update, E-Paper Under-reported, De-personalizing Print, Inbox, and Road Warrior
Published July 29, 2005
Economic Roundup, E-Paper, MIS, Profits Questions, and Cyberloitering
Published July 22, 2005
Economic Roundup, That Profits Thing Again, Dr. Joe's Inbox, and Newspapers
Published July 15, 2005
Webinar, Profit Reports Fallout
Published July 1, 2005
Economic Update and Printing Profits
Published June 24, 2005
VistaPrint, Population Trends and Their Meaning, and Democratizing the Mysteries of Color Science
Published June 17, 2005
Economic Roundup, What Makes Working with a Printer Worthwhile?, and Speaking of Marketing
Published June 10, 2005
Economic Roundup and Dr. Joe's Clogged Mailbox
Published June 3, 2005
FREE Publishing Market of 2014, Inflation Adjusted Shipments, and Bad Forecasting
Published May 20, 2005
FREE Economic Update, Underemployment and Birth/Death Rates
Published May 13, 2005
Economic Overview, Printing Shipments, New Media, Offshore by a Bit, The "Syndicate"
Published May 6, 2005
Economic Round-Up, Printing Profits, Call to Action, Important Articles
Published April 29, 2005
Printing Profits, Magazine Circulation, Broadband, Using Census Data, and Questioning Dr. Joe
Published April 15, 2005
Economic Roundup, Questioning Dr. Joe, Commercials, 1:1 Marketing, and Road Warrior
Published April 8, 2005
Upcoming Webinar, Questioning The Numbers
Published March 18, 2005
Economic Roundup, Small Business Decline?
Published March 11, 2005
Blogosphere, Rodney Dangerfield Economy, Changes in Media Mix, Credible Edibles, and Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published March 4, 2005
Economic Roundup, Budget Fun & Games, The Sappi Campaign
Published February 18, 2005
Economic Roundup, Amazing Cluttered Inbox, Fear of Technology, Index of Economic Freedom
Published February 11, 2005
Economic Roundup, Understanding Your Own Personality, and a Billion Here, a Billion There
Published February 4, 2005
Economic Roundup, Young Whippersnapper, and Running out of Capacity
Published January 28, 2005
Economic Roundup, Dr. Joe's Inbox, and Index of Economic Freedom
Published January 21, 2005
Mixed Employment Report, Ancillary Services, Myths, Road Warrier, and More...
Published January 14, 2005
Economic Roundup, The Stealth Boom, Ask Exactly What is Measured, and Dr. Joe's Inbox
Published January 7, 2005
Disappointing Q3 Printer Profits, Mixing Up Top and Bottom, GAMIS Thanks
Published December 17, 2004
Economy Strong, Small Biz Trend, ISM, Dr. Joe's Inbox Clutter, and Road Warrior
Published December 10, 2004
Economic Roundup and Important Articles
Published December 3, 2004
Expectations for 2005, Content Surpasses Communication Online, Capital Expenditures, and Next Round of Consolidation
Published November 19, 2004
Economic Roundup, Standing Up For Ourselves, Dr. Joe's Inbox, Road Warror Tips, and Sightings
Published November 12, 2004
Economic Roundup, Effectiveness of Print, Dr. Joe's Inbox, and Sightings
Published November 5, 2004
FREE: Economic Roundup, Dr. Joe's Inbox, Road Warrior, and Sightings
Published October 29, 2004
FREE: Dynamic Inertia, Economic Insight, Alan Greenspan, and Ask Dr. Joe
Published October 22, 2004
Economic Roundup, Top 300 Mags, Advertising, Bits and Bytes, and Magazine Market Changes
Published September 24, 2004
Print Profits Up, China Syndrome, CIA World Factbook, Magazine Market Changes, and Road Warrior
Published September 17, 2004
Economic Round-Up, Bad Economic Reporting, The Forecasting Game, and Upcoming Webinar
Published August 20, 2004
Economic Round-Up, Sage Advice, Joe's Siggraph Adventure, Upcoming Webinar
Published August 13, 2004
Economic News, Another Sign of Economy Growth, A Paper Company Discovers Print, "Pursuing Other Interests, and China-Phobia
Published July 30, 2004
Economic Round-up and MacWorld
Published July 23, 2004
A Hard Question and The Decline of Mass Marketing
Published July 16, 2004
Economic Roundup, Quick Takes, Road Warrier Stuff, and Digitally Savvy Musician
Published July 9, 2004
Webinar, NYU Prism Luncheon Thoughts, Magazine Handbook, Summer Reading, and Questioning Dr. Joe
Published June 25, 2004
Economic Roundup, Deficit Not So Big, Outsourcing Overblown?, New Webinar
Published June 18, 2004
Economic Roundup, Printing Profitability, Technologies of the Past, Odds & Ends, and Advertising News
Published June 11, 2004
FREE: Economic Roundup, Economic Media Bias?, News Holiday, and Upcoming Webinar
Published June 4, 2004
Special Economic Roundup, CMOs, Reading Material, and Commercials That Hit The Mark
Published May 28, 2004
Special Economic Roundup, Fed up with the Fed?, and Maintaining Profitability
Published May 21, 2004
FREE: Economic Roundup, Outsourcing Good and Bad, China and the 'net, Interactive Marketing, and Random Road Warrior Thoughts
Published April 30, 2004
FREE: Economic Roundup, Entrepreneurship, Role of e-Mail in Customer Retention, Mario Brothers, and Gateway
Published April 23, 2004
Economic Roundup, Updated Net New Business, Complaints About Financing, and Questioning Dr. Joe
Published April 9, 2004
Economic Roundup, Dr Joe Roasts Vinocur, Font Bureaucracy, E-Commerce, and Shopping Habits
Published April 2, 2004
Economic Roundup, Inside the Media Business, ROI Obsession, Advertising, And More
Published March 26, 2004
Economic Roundup, Capacity Utilization Ain't What It's Cracked Up to Be, Next Week and Dr. Joe Sightings
Published March 12, 2004
Economic Roundup, Small Business Regulatory Costs, Magazine Circulation Numbers Tumble, More on Media Mix, Cocal Cola, and Email's Role in Retail Purchases
Published February 27, 2004
Economic Roundup, Capital Expenditures, Short-term Orientation, Media Mix ROI, and P&G Reiterates Need for ROI
Published February 13, 2004
Economic Roundup, More Economic Notes, Print's ROI, and Ordering Out for Chinese
Published February 6, 2004
Advertising Forecast, Catalog Titles on the Rise, Big Brother Stopping Us from Making More "Money", and The Business of Politics
Published January 30, 2004
Economic Roundup, Why People Read Mags, Buying or Not Buying Presses
Published January 23, 2004
Economic Roundup, CEO Confidence, Index of Economic Freedom, Media Mix, Software Notes
Published January 16, 2004
Economic Roundup, Industry Profit Trends, Vetting Print: Stand Up and Fight!, Linux Adventure
Published January 9, 2004
Economic Roundup, Adobe Acrobatics? Anti-Spam and Telemarketing and Print, Windows Alternatives
Published December 19, 2003
Economic Roundup, Freedom of Association, Surf Everywhere, Memorable Marketing, Q&A, Software Tips
Published December 12, 2003
Economic Round-Up, One for the Books, PowerPoint Comments
Published December 5, 2003
Blame Game, Despair.com, Important Perspective About Trade Deficits, Software Tips
Published November 21, 2003
Donnelley/Moore-Wallace, Variable Data Results?, Whining and Dining, Tools
Published November 14, 2003
Economic Round-Up, Factory Orders, Productivity, Tribute to Bryon Ramseyer
Published November 7, 2003
GDP up 7.2%, CEOs Online, Publisher Results, Print’s Tenure Track, Advertising - What CEO's Think
Published October 31, 2003
Economic Roundup, Worldwide Mfg, Media Mix, Road Warrior, Software Tips
Published October 24, 2003
TV Ads Don't Sell Cars, Media Mix, Customer Retention, e-Paper
Published October 17, 2003
FREE: Economy - Good news, bad news, World Bank Report, Ride it, don't fight it
Published October 10, 2003
Magazine Frequency, Clipping Coupons, Note to the NYSE, PR Translation Services
Published September 26, 2003
Forcasting Tips, Creo's Plate Plan, Sticking to your knitting
Published September 19, 2003
Low Down on Low Tech, Personalizationally Speaking, Adobe Performance, Sales Territory and 9/11
Published September 12, 2003
Does Print Track with Ad Pages? Hiring on the Horizon, GDP Analysis
Published September 5, 2003
Between the Lines of GDP and Corporate Profits, The "BIG Idea"
Published August 29, 2003
Blaming Drupa?, The Digital Publication Trend, Uncontrollable Personalization
Published August 22, 2003
The Wired Generation, Why Buy the Cow, Words Don't Matter?, Top Business Web Sites
Published August 15, 2003
Economic Roundup, Dr. Joe Goes to Siggraph
Published August 8, 2003
Is Digital Displacing Offset?, Acrobat Alternatives, Moving from "Mainstream" to Affordable and Functional Software
Published August 1, 2003
Economic picture getting better, Balancing Consensus and Leadership
Published July 25, 2003
The Recession Ended in 2001?? and Questioning Dr. Joe about Heidelberg
Published July 18, 2003
Dr. Joe Webb: The Software Licensing Conundrum
Published July 18, 2003
Future of Magazines, Downsizing, Dr. Doom, Heidelberg, Economic Roundup
Published July 11, 2003
Trade Show Value, Fed (T)eases, Capital Spending’s Relation to Productivity, Ad Data
Published June 27, 2003
Non-print 1:1, Print and Broadband, Googling, Overcapacity Question, Acrobat 6.0 Review
Published June 20, 2003
Part 2: Understanding Overcapacity... or the Lack Thereof
Published June 16, 2003
Part 1: Understanding Overcapacity, or the Lack Thereof
Published June 13, 2003
FCC ruling good for cross-media, "Business as usual", The truth about Print on Demand
Published June 6, 2003
25 Years Ago at Agfa, Medium-sized Dealers, Economic Update
Published May 30, 2003
Which Index Should You Watch?, Smaller Dealers Disappearing?, Economic Roundup
Published May 23, 2003
Over Reliance on Sales Commission, Management by Slogans & a Conspiracy Theory
Published May 16, 2003
The "State of Printing", Fed rates, Manufacturing activity, Capital expenditures, Sales per employee
Published May 9, 2003
Greenspan, Productivity, Total Number of Printers, Capital Spending by Printers, "7-70 Rule"
Published May 2, 2003
Cost-Cutting Hero May Not Be So Heroic, Economic Roundup, Consolidated Graphics, Size of the Industry
Published April 25, 2003
Economic News, Vertis' Internet study, Magazine upturn?, Convincing print buyers
Published April 18, 2003
FREE Special: Can Printers Really Be In the Communications Business?
Published April 11, 2003
Surviving The Economic News, ISM Stats, Feb Factory Orders, Prosper In Tough Times
Published April 4, 2003
The "Fog of War", Congress and the Tax Plan, Consolidated Graphics, Corel Up for Sale
Published March 28, 2003
Economic Indicators, Quebecor Shakeup, CFO Dealings, Tardy Managers, Cool Tools
Published March 21, 2003
What the Ad Stats DID NOT Say, CEO as Spokesperson, Geek Product
Published March 14, 2003
Kinko’s & ImageX, Economic News, IT Publishers and Apple
Published March 7, 2003
Consumer Confidence, Ad Spending, Newspapers, Durable Goods
Published February 28, 2003
Printcafe, Print Buyers, Ad Revenues, Economic Front, Bowne
Published February 21, 2003
Printcafe, Seasonality is Changing, Retail Sales, New Media
Published February 14, 2003
Fridays with Dr. Joe: Quebecor, PIA, Manufacturing, Labor Stats
Published February 7, 2003
Beware the E-Magazine (a special report)
Published February 4, 2003
Fed Interest Rates, Q4 GDP, PIA Projections, Beware the E-Magazine
Published January 31, 2003
DJW Quick Take: Is the PIA’s Outlook Too Rosy?
Published January 28, 2003
Bidding War for Printcafe, Forms Giants Plan Merger, More
Published January 24, 2003
DJW Quick Take: Moore-Wallace Merger
Published January 20, 2003
AOL Time Warner, Virtual JC Penney, Retail Sales, Mfg Activity, Paper Consumption
Published January 17, 2003
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