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Data Analysis

Recession Coming? Third Quarter GDP Looks Weaker than Experts Forecasted

By Dr. Joe Webb
Published: October 22, 2015


The latest estimate (October 20) by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates that third quarter GDP will be +0.9%. That is, until the next data for their model comes in.

Data have not been encouraging lately for retail sales (Walmart's outlook spooked the markets last week) or for manufacturing. Our forecast is still for the +2.25% long range growth rate with bumpiness in the process. Low GDP growth rates always mean that recession possibilities are higher than usual. A long run return to sustained real GDP growth of +3.4% post-WW2 historical average seems very distant as any short bursts higher in the last 15 years have not been sustainable. Your larger clients are often dealing with the ripple effects of international marketplaces through their companies, but your smaller clients are usually more local in scope. Budget cuts may be looming in the big companies, so concentrating on the tactical promotion and operational needs of smaller clients might be the best options now. Help them reduce their total costs, reduce administrative burdens by outsourcing to you, and help then find ways to stimulate revenue streams (like store traffic promotions, better signage, events, media management, mobile media initiatives).


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