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Two Recovery Indicators Turn Mildly Negative, Others In Strong Rise

Two of the recovery indicators retreated,

By Dr. Joe Webb
Published: September 6, 2013

Two of the recovery indicators retreated, the NASDAQ (it's had a good move up in recent months) and proprietors' income (not statistically significant). The ISM reports had a strong bounce from last month. Other economic indicators are not confirming this latest change, yet. We will be watching carefully because we have been here before. Manufacturing new orders were near this level in April 2011; imports were at the level in April 2010. For non-manufacturing new orders, this level was last seen in February 2011, and imports just a few months ago in April. The economy is still having a bumpy move sideways, and there is a possibility that some of this manufacturing activity might be inventory building in anticipation of reductions some are predicting as a result of the implementation of the ACA in 2014. Many of those prognostications are anecdotal, and there is not much evidence yet that those kinds of adjustments would result in inventory building at this time. Time will tell. (click chart to enlarge)

recovery tracker 090513

Dr. Joe Webb is one of the graphic arts industry's best-known consultants, forecasters, and commentators. He is the director of WhatTheyThink's Economics and Research Center.



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