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Data Analysis

Fed's Industrial Production Index Down for 13 Consecutive Months: A Recession on Inauguration Day?

By Dr. Joe Webb
Published: November 17, 2016

 

Will the newly inaugurated President Trump be dealing with a recession like his predecessor did? In December 2008, a recession was declared, and the experts said it started almost a year before then.

Several economic indicators, like durable goods orders and factory orders, have been negative compared to the prior year's level for almost two years.

The Federal Reserve's Industrial Production Index released on November 16 marked its thirteenth consecutive negative comparison to the prior year. The only sector that is holding up in the GDP reports is the consumer side of that bookkeeping. That can't hold up for long unless the production and investment side of the GDP ledgers start to perk up.

There is optimism in the markets about a Trump recovery, but it must be noted that there are many legislative hurdles ahead, and most economic plans take about 18 months to develop notable impact. There's more information in our recent economic webinar.

 

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