Are the Stock Indexes Really at All-Time Highs? Does It Matter?

Published February 21, 2015

Printing Industry Capital Investment, 2003 to 2013

Published February 20, 2015

The US Department of Commerce issued their latest report about capital investment spending in 2013, and we've written about it in a recent blogpost. As part of our analysis, we applied the rate of investment to industry shipments and arrived at the chart below. It shows two rather distinct periods, 2003 to 2007, where capital investment was not as good as the late 1990s, but recovered and stabilized after the first negative wave of digital media. Some of this was replacement of late 1990s equipment that had come off lease. Then there's the 2008 credit crisis and recovery. Capital investment declined in volume as industry shipments fell from the introduction of social media, new devices, and cheaper and faster communications. But the rate of capital investment is slowly rising, even though shipments are shrinking, and the number of plants is contracting. The survivors tend to be healthier establishments, who survived the downturns, and are likely making better investment decisions.

Industry Capital Investment Rate Increasing Since Recession

Published February 19, 2015

Printing Employment Data Revised Up in 2014

Published February 12, 2015

Every February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) updates employment data for the prior year and beyond. This year, the revisions to printing industry employment went back to April 2013. When the BLS calculates employment, especially for industries, it uses estimation methods because actual data are not readily available. That actual data are derived from the Social Security tax filings of employers. In this case, the BLS was underreporting employment, especially in mid-2014. Employment data are used as an input into Commerce Department data for the estimation of industry shipments. Those new employment data, though not released publicly, were probably used in recent months shipment calculations when 2014 shipments began to have favorable comparisons to 2013. It is possible, based on these data, that 2014 industry shipments will be revised up in the annual mid-May shipment revision report. An educated guess would put the change at approximately $1 billion, bringing shipments from +0.2% in current dollars to about +1.5%, or flat with 2013 after adjusting for inflation. Nonetheless, employment in December 2014 was less than December 2013. As can be seen in the chart, January 2015 employment is reported as dropping considerably. January and February tend to be slow months, and March can be one of the best. February employment may rise in anticipation.

2014 Printing Employment Revised to Slower Decrease; US Employment Improves Again

Published February 11, 2015

Recovery Indicators

Published February 5, 2015

Recovery indicators in manufacturing continued to retreat in the ISM manufacturing report, in concert with news earlier this week from the Commerce Department that showed five months consecutive decline for factory orders. Non-manufacturing orders rose slightly, but imports continued to pull back. The ISM new orders for manufacturing and non-manufacturing are still above 50, which indicates future growth, but at a slower rate. The NASDAQ index was up in the last month, but is still lower than it was two months ago. Trading has been choppy, which sometimes is indicative of a developing turning point. The one bright spot in the report is a measure of small business, proprietors income, upbeat news in an otherwise tough month.

Manufacturing Indicators Retreat; Small Business Moves Forward

Published February 4, 2015

2014 US Commercial Printing Rebounds from Poor First Half with Positive Third and Fourth Quarters

Published February 4, 2015

Q4-2014 GDP +2.6%, Weaker than Expectations, Yet Weaker in the Details

Published January 30, 2015

Job Openings Steadily Improving but Have More to Go

Published January 30, 2015

The following charts show how job openings have been on a steady rise since the beginning of the recovery in mid-2009, and have now passed the recent peak when the recession began at the end of 2007. But that was a long time ago, and population has grown since that time. The 2000s have a long way to go to catch up with population-adjusted job openings since the turn of the century.

Industry Churn: How Our Industry Adjusts and Renews Itself, by the Numbers

Published January 26, 2015

Latest Inflation Multipliers

Published January 22, 2015

For those who have been following along, the chart below is the latest update for budget planning. It's always a benefit to understand your sales and costs in historical perspective. Without adjusting for inflation, you could be working on assumption of trends and relationships that are untrue. Make it “real.”

Dr. Joe Finds Rare Species: A Printer at the Triangle American Marketing Association Luncheon

Published January 21, 2015

Latest Inflation Multipliers: What "Gone With the Wind" and"Avatar" Teach Us About Money

Published January 20, 2015

Since 2004, USPS Prices +38%, Consumer Prices +27%, Printing Prices +13%, Computers -44%, Wireless Communications -37%; What's It All Mean?

Published January 19, 2015

Full Time Employment Still Not Recovered

Published January 15, 2015

The number of workers with full time jobs has still not exceeded levels at the start of the recession about seven years ago. This is despite continuous population growth and higher GDP levels for 21 of the last 22 quarters. Of last year's +2.2 million increase in employment, about 970,000 were part time positions. Many part time positions are by choice of the employee, an unknown number may be from distortions resulting from the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, and others are from uneven economic conditions and low expectations about future business conditions. There is some employment optimism in recent surveys of the National Federation of Independent Business and both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys of the Institute for Supply Management.

Printing Employment Falls; Agency Employment Up; National Employment Rate Improves to 5.6%

Published January 13, 2015

Federal Debt as Percentage of GDP Over 100%

Published January 8, 2015

Economic press coverage of the Federal budget is usually limited to the annual deficit, the shortfall of tax and fee collections versus spending. While the deficit as a percentage of GDP is down to about -4% from 2009 when it was more than -9%, the deficits do accumulate. Now, the total debt of the US exceeds GDP. This is likely to keep political pressure on the Fed to keep rates down. It also means that a 1 percentage point rise in interest rates would cost $180 billion and can double the annual deficit. But the Fed may not be able to increase interest rates when they want to no how hard they might try. International rates, such as those in Germany, have recently been below 0.5% for the 10 year bond. US rates are comparatively high in the 2% range, and any push upward by the Fed would probably be met by arbitrage actions in the other direction.

January to November 2014 Printing Shipments Nearly Even with 2013

Published January 7, 2015

Recovery Indicators Slammed After Upbeat Q3 GDP Revision

Published January 7, 2015

Profits Retreat in Q3

Published December 18, 2014

Profits Still Below $4 Billion on Annual Basis

Published December 18, 2014

Four billion dollars was the approximate bottom of 2005's inflation adjusted annual profits. The four-quarter total annual profits have had a difficult time breaking through that level for more than eight years.

Ad Agency Revenues Rise While Publishing Revenues are Not

Published December 16, 2014

Inflation-adjusted Sales of S&P 500 Firms Still Below Pre-Recession Levels

Published December 11, 2014

GDP may say that the recession ended in June 2009, but there are still data series that have not yet confirmed that five years later. Total employment is one of them, as is median household income, but so is the inflation-adjusted sales of companies in the S&P 500. Even though the companies in the S&P 500 index have revenues lower than the peak of June 2008, the S&P 500 stock index is getting closer to all-time high levels of Spring 2000 (The Dow Jones average already is, the Russell 2000 has been for a while, but the NASDAQ is still off by about 15%). These sales of 500 of the world's best companies have not kept up with real GDP growth since the recession ended (about 2% per year). Some economists believe that this is an indication that GDP data should be viewed with great suspicion, and that there has yet to be a true recovery.

China's GDP is Now Largest in the World: But What Does that Mean?

Published December 10, 2014

Public Relations Employment Strong, Printing Employment Trend Flattens

Published December 9, 2014

June to October US Commercial Printing Shipments Up +$1 Billion Versus 2013

Published December 5, 2014

Revised GDP Pushed Higher, But Did Not Change Longer Range Growth Rate

Published December 4, 2014

Third quarter GDP was revised from +3.5% to +3.9%, but the change was mainly in net inventories, and did little to affect the assessment of underlying and longer range growth compared to the prior year of about +2.43%. Inventories have been bouncing around a bit over recent quarters and are running a little higher than they should be, indicating that some minor correction is forthcoming, especially if non-US economies are slowing down.

Recovery Indicators Post Another Good Month

Published December 3, 2014

USPS' October, More EDDM News, and Other Items

Published December 3, 2014

Dr. Joe's Random Thoughts

Published November 20, 2014

Canada Per Capita Commercial Printing 1992-2014

Published November 14, 2014

Using printing shipments and population data from Statistics Canada, we have prepared this chart that shows per capita shipments of commercial printing in Canada current dollars and Canada inflation-adjusted dollars.

September Commercial Printing Shipments +3.9%; Employment Data Reflect Shift in Media Use

Published November 10, 2014

Upbeat Indicators and Employment Reports

Published November 10, 2014

Can We Trust the Economic Data We Get?

Published October 17, 2014

NFIB Small Business Index Retreats Slightly, But is Still on Path of Slow Uptrend

Published October 16, 2014

Labor Force Participation Rate and Employment-Population Ratio Below 1980 Levels

Published October 9, 2014

What's made the economic recovery since June 2009 so intriguing has not been its below-history GDP growth rate, but also the deterioration in key measures of employment. The labor force participation rate has been declining as idled workers decide not to return to the workforce.

Unemployment Rate Falls to 5.9%; Magazine Employment Falls Below 100,000

Published October 6, 2014

August US Commercial Printing Shipments Down -1% Compared to 2013

Published October 6, 2014

Four Recovery Indicators Pull Back

Published October 6, 2014

The Stronger Dollar... or Is It?

Published October 2, 2014

There's been a lot of interest in the stronger dollar for many reasons. Some consider it a safe haven during times of global tensions. Others say it's a bounce off a bottom. Still others consider the dollar the least ugly of all the major currencies. But is it really stronger? (Two charts)

Dr. Joe Rambles About the USPS: Playing the Slots, the UPS Store, Casablanca, and Other Mini-rants

Published October 1, 2014

More Dr. Joe Ramblings: Forecasts, Drugstores, Statistics, Buybacks, and BookBooks

Published October 1, 2014

The Fed's quantitative easing is winding down... now what?

Published September 25, 2014

Advertising Agency Revenues Up at Annual Rate of 7% Since Start of Economic Recovery

Published September 25, 2014

The latest data from the Commerce Department's Quarterly Service Survey shows that advertising agency revenues have climbed at the rate of 7% per year since the recovery began after June 2009. The rate of growth exceeds real GDP growth which has been +2.2% on an annual basis since that time. How did they do it? A strong emphasis on digital media strategy and production that's replaced their loss of commissions and fees for broadcast and print advertising. Publishers revenues have not come close to even that lackluster GDP rate. The steep decline for magazines and books is over, for now: they are not growing and the decline in revenues is mild. Newspapers, however, are still in long term decline. Newspaper revenues are about half of what the were in 2004.

Income Statistics Don't Tell the Whole Economic Story

Published September 18, 2014

NFIB Small Business Index Breaks Through Recession Upper Range

Published September 18, 2014

Small business seems to be improving, at least according to the NFIB monthly survey of small business owners. For years, it was usually trapped between two recession bottoms, but it has broken through of three consecutive surveys. It's an encouraging report, but it's not bullish. The NFIB commentary states “More owners still think business conditions will be worse in six months than think they will be better. Few see the current period as a good time to expand. The outlook for improvements in real sales volumes faded. Interest in borrowing continues to remain at record low levels; owners are satisfied with inventories and aren’t planning a lot of investment.” The NFIB is still in the range of a 2+% GDP growth level, but sees not robust small business activity in the near term. Basically, the NFIB report is good news in that conditions are better, but a big positive breakout in activity will remain elusive.

Annualized Inflation-adjusted Profit

Published September 12, 2014

Second quarter US commercial printing profits were $1.13 billion, based on the recent Quarterly Financial Report issued by the Department of Commerce and combined with other Commerce Department and Bureau of Labor Statistics data. This was down -7.5% compared to Q2-2013. For the last four quarters, total profits were $3.67 billion, and that is +20% higher than the equivalent measure a year ago. The Q1 four-quarter moving total was revised down from $4.03 billion to $3.77 billion.

Industry Profits Remain Rangebound but Positive, Show Effects of Consolidation and Market Adaptation

Published September 10, 2014

Positive Reviews for "This Point Forward" by Dr. Joe Webb and Richard Romano Prior to Its Graph Expo Release

Published September 9, 2014

Employment Report Inconsistent with Recent Upbeat Economic Data; Content Creation Jobs Grow

Published September 9, 2014

Recovery Indicators Have a Good Month

Published September 4, 2014

July 2014 Printing Shipments up +2.6%, Two Consecutive Months of Growth

Published September 4, 2014

Sept 4th Key Recovery Indicators

Published September 4, 2014

Dr. Joe's Key Recovery Indicators were started in 2009, and track the monthly ups and downs of the economy in terms that are relevant to small and mid-size businesses.

Global Bond Rates May Make it Hard for the Fed to Affect US Long-Term Rates

Published August 29, 2014

The Fed has been in unchartered territory with its post-2008 actions, and unwinding them may take a bit of creativity. One of their obstacles might be the rates of long term government bonds around the world. The chart below shows the yield of 10-year bonds earlier this week. The rate on US 10-year bonds is more than 4x Japan's and more than 2x Germany's. In an odd situation, US bonds are actually paying less than those of Spain. Global investors looking for yield (pension funds, governments, mutual funds, and others) may thwart Fed actions by finding US funds to be compelling deals on a relative basis. The Fed can usually affect only short term rates, which was one of the reasons they became aggressive in buying long term debt in their Quantitative Easing (QE) actions. Getting yields down for all durations is what made their actions were essentially unprecedented for the US. If they attempt to sell their holdings quickly to raise rates, there might be more buyers than they anticipate, making the action fruitless. It still looks like once the QE buying is done in the next few weeks the Fed will simply let their most of their holdings mature rather than force-feed them to the market. Listen for the word “macroprudential” in the next months. That's how Fed officials are describing the gentle prodding they may have to take to reverse their course. It turns out that some of the Fed members are worried their actions may encounter resistance, so they will resort to some arm-twisting to push banks to act in the manner they want. That hasn't worked well in the past, and it probably won't work well now, but it does add a word to our vocabulary.

First Revision to Q2-2014 GDP is Up, Now Estimated at +4.2%

Published August 28, 2014

Inflation-adjusted Commercial & Industrial Loans Growing

Published August 22, 2014

Commercial and industrial loans took a while to start growing again, almost two years after the recovery started. Loans now total $1.7 trillion, the highest amount in the history of the data series, a little more than 10% of GDP. Overall, they are up about 40% on a current dollar basis since mid-2010.

Dr. Joe Rambles About Marketing, Printed Electronics, Staples, and Retail Sales

Published August 21, 2014

Initial Jobless Claims as a Percentage of the Workforce

Published August 15, 2014

As the number of employed workers has been slowly increasing, and the total workforce has been growing, initial claims for unemployment have been decreasing. The historical perspective is very interesting. This past recession, as bad as it was, did not come close to the levels of the 1970s and 1980s recessions (about 0.6% of the workforce). This most recent recovery is already at the best levels of prior expansions. It doesn't feel “that good”; what's different? The workforce has not kept up with population growth, and about 2 million workers have permanently left the workforce. Also, companies have been cautious in their hiring, meaning, that there are fewer workers to dismiss when businesses of the past needed to. One could look at the chart and say that when this ratio reaches this current level (0.2%) a recession has always followed. Probably not in this case: this ratio may go to unprecedented lower levels because of the workforce exodus and the slow pace of hiring that has made this recovery so different than previous ones. Economist Mark Perry at the American Enterprise Institute discussed the steady rise in job openings at his blog. They are at a 13-year high (not adjusted for population growth), and still less than January 2000 by 800,000.

NFIB Small Business Index Up Slightly

Published August 14, 2014

Latest Recovery Indicators

Published August 8, 2014

Dr. Joe's Key Recovery Indicators were started in 2009, and track the monthly ups and downs of the economy in terms that are relevant to small and mid-size businesses.

Recovery Indicators Mixed, Strong ISM New Orders Data; A Different Look at Employment

Published August 5, 2014

June US Commercial Printing Shipments Rise +4.2%; First Half of 2014 Down -2.2%

Published August 5, 2014

Q2 Advance GDP Strong +4%, "Cancels" Bad Q1

Published July 30, 2014

GDP Data Revised Down for 2011 and 2012, Revised Up for 2013

Published July 30, 2014

EDDM Does Not Mean Elastic Demand Direct Mail

Published July 24, 2014

Dr. Janet & Dr. Joe

Published July 17, 2014

Inflation multipliers have been updated

Published July 17, 2014

NFIB Small Business Index Breaks Through 2003 Recession Bottom for Last Two Months

Published July 10, 2014

The NFIB index has been trapped between the bottom of two recessions, that of the early 1990s and the early 2000s recession bottom. Though the latest report retreated a bit, it's still above the 2003 low. Small business is improving at a very slow pace, but this may finally be a good sign after the very disappointing Q1 GDP report.

Recovery Indicators Improve, Unemployment Report Better

Published July 3, 2014

Recovery Indicators Improve

Published July 3, 2014

The recovery indicators were mainly better this month, with the NASDAQ bouncing around then finishing well, and three of the four ISM indicators increasing. The one that didn’t is still firmly in expansion territory. The original estimate of proprietors’ income was $1,371 then it was reduced to $1,366 billion and now it’s $1,359.

May 2014 Commercial Printing Shipments Raise Concerns

Published July 2, 2014

Q1-2014 GDP Revised Down to -2.9%; Will We Start Hearing the "R" Word?

Published June 25, 2014

Advertising Agency Revenues Still Climbing

Published June 24, 2014

The chart below shows the latest revenue data, on an inflation-adjusted basis, for ad agencies and publishers. Note how ad agency revenues are rising. While there have always been agencies that specialize in certain media, like television, direct mail, or others, the industry is media agnostic in the aggregate. Its job is to increase the positive visibility of its clients and help spur their customers into action.

Ad Agencies Increasing Revenues in the Digital Media Era; Publishers Get Socked

Published June 24, 2014

RetailMeNot's report tells retailers to "stop doing something old," referring to us

Published June 19, 2014

RetailMeNot's report and the infographic are essential reading for print business owners because they offer a media executive's perspective on the nature of print. The executives perceptions of digital media are quite clear: "Seventy-five percent believe that digital consistently delivers better ROI – or "promotional performance" – at a lower cost than non-digital."

Selected Generally “Non-Offset” Products and Services Offered by US Commercial Printers

Published June 18, 2014

What "Other" Services Do Commercial Printers Offer?

Published June 16, 2014

Latest Print and Content Creation Employment Data

Published June 11, 2014

Unemployment Rate Steady at 6.3%; Data Imply Stabilizing Labor Market

Published June 6, 2014

Recovery Indicators Better in a Mixed Kind of Way

Published June 5, 2014

Since June 2009, rate of overall USPS price increases almost 4x the rate of increase in commercial printing prices

Published June 5, 2014

April 2014 US Commercial Printing Shipments $6.71 Billion

Published June 3, 2014

GDP for Q1-2014 revised to -1%; A Sign of Recession or Inventory Correction?

Published May 29, 2014

US Commercial Printers Report Improved Business Conditions in Latest WhatTheyThink Survey

Published May 29, 2014

Though Q1-2014 GDP was -1%, the Year-to-Year Trend Remains in the +2% Range

Published May 29, 2014

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the second revision of Q1-2014 US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), indicating a contraction of the US economy in the quarter. As reported in prior (“laughable and embarassing”) analysis, an inventory buildup in the last two quarters of 2013 distorted the underlying condition of the economy.

Q1-2014 Business Conditions Compared to Q1-2013

Published May 29, 2014

Business conditions were generally good, with more than 33% reporting business increases of 6% or more. About 13% of respondents indicated business decreases of 6% or more

New York Times Internal Document about Their Digital Media Woes Has Lessons for All

Published May 22, 2014

I Was Wrong – Don't Stay Ahead of Your Clients – Stay Ahead of Their Bosses

Published May 15, 2014

Labor Market Net Hiring Turns Negative

Published May 15, 2014

US employment data has many cross-currents: the unemployment rate is down, but the labor participation rate is at 35-year lows. Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics published its JOLTS report, which shows they dynamic factors at play in the labor market. This chart shows the percentage of hires less the number of quits on a year-to-year basis. Note in the chart below the rapid rise in employment as the recession ended and the recovery began, and also how it has narrowed and turned negative in recent months. It's been mainly negative for about 18 months.

Q1-2014 US Commercial Printing Shipments Down -4% Compared to 2013

Published May 8, 2014

March 2013 US commercial printing shipments were down -$148 million (-2.2%) compared to 2012. The first quarter was down -$770 billion (-4%). On an inflation-adjusted basis, shipments were down -$270 million (-5.4%) and down -$1.05 billion (-5.4%) for the quarter.

Recovery Indicators Rebound; Q1-2014 GDP Below 1% but Corrects for Business Inventory Misjudgments

Published May 8, 2014

The recovery indicators rebounded since last month. New orders for manufacturers remained at the same level that indicates growth.

April Printing Employment +1,000; Is It Real?

Published May 7, 2014

Q1-2014 US Commercial Printing Shipments Down -4% Compared to 2013

Published May 7, 2014

April Printing Employment +1,000

Published May 7, 2014

Printing employment in April rose by 1,000 workers. It is always hard to determine if these were actual workers or if the changes were the result of issues with the estimation models of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Production workers were the greatest part of the increase (800).

Recovery Indicators Rebound; Q1-2014 GDP Below 1% but Corrects for Business Inventory Misjudgments

Published May 6, 2014

Table of Latest Inflation Multipliers

Published April 23, 2014

Below is the latest set of multipliers based on the Consumer Price Index. Multiply your historical financial statements by the figures below to adjust data to the CPI for the first quarter of this year.

Latest Inflation Multipliers Q1-2014

Published April 22, 2014

Printing Industry Shipments and Profits

Published April 18, 2014

For the year, profits were $4.34 billion. On an inflation-adjusted basis, that was the highest level of industry profits since 2007. This is despite there being $28 billion less printing shipments, 8,000 fewer printing establishments, and 73,000 fewer employees. It was the best profits per establishment ($173,000) since 2000.

Profits per Print Establishment Best Since 2000; Annual Industry Profits Best Since 2007

Published April 17, 2014