August 2012 US Commercial Printing Shipments Down -2.9% Compared to 2011

Published October 4, 2012

The End of NAPL/PIA Unification Talks: Squandered Opportunity? Or Necessary Pause?

Published September 27, 2012

Fear and the Fed?

Published September 17, 2012

The Fed took a look at the economy last week and panicked. In printing industry terms, they increased their run lengths and their page counts, and there's more money printing on the way. It's not much, just $1.4 trillion. What's a few billion dollars amongst friends?

Happy Software Freedom Day: September 15, 2012

Published September 11, 2012

More Economic Sameness

Published September 10, 2012

Dr. Joe explains last Friday's employment report, takes a look at employment in our industry, and explains why ad agency revenues are going up when everything else seems to be going down. Speaking of down, sit down before you read his comments about the latest recovery indicators. Yes, Dr. Doom seems to have infiltrated this column, again.

September Issue of “Monthly Printing Shipments Trends & Forecasts” is Now Available for Download; Subscribers Receive Latest US & Canada Data Analysis with Dr. Joe Webb's Commentary and Forecast

Published September 6, 2012

July 2012 US Commercial Printing Shipments Flat with 2011

Published September 3, 2012

Number of Microbusinesses Rise in Economy's Recovery, Total Number of Businesses Declines

Published August 27, 2012

Risk and “Uncertainty” are Not the Same

Published August 20, 2012

Don't be uncertain about the risks of reading Dr. Joe's column about risk and uncertainty. It's not often he gets to use the word “actuarial” in a column about printing. Everyone thinks they know what ROI means, but just one little letter makes a big difference.

Interpreting Media Use Headlines

Published August 13, 2012

Dr. Joe's glad he didn't buy Facebook stock, and explains why the company's stock price matters little to media decision-makers. And then there's the magazine circulation thing. Why is everyone so surprised that it's down? Yet again he rails about inflation, but at least he has some fresh new inflation multipliers to annoy company controllers and CFOs

Recovery Indicators Retreat; Economy's Sidestep Continues

Published August 8, 2012

June 2012 US Commercial Printing Shipments Up +$139 Million Compared to 2011

Published August 2, 2012

Q2 GDP Disappoints at +1.5%; GDP Revisions Make Recession Less Bad and Recovery Less Good

Published July 31, 2012

Advertising Agency Changing Product Mix Keeps Revenues on an Upswing; What it Means to the Marketing Services Strategy

Published July 22, 2012

Relevance and Industry Capacity

Published July 16, 2012

Here Dr. Joe goes again, on another capacity rant. It's about two years since his last one, so we guess we should cut him some slack. This time he takes a slightly different look, or at least he says he did. You decide.

Recovery Indicators Take an Interesting Wrong Turn

Published July 9, 2012

The recovery continues to limp along, and then the Commerce Department says that May printing shipments were just incredibly good. Sure, they tease us a few weeks ago by yanking $600 million in shipments from the first quarter in their annual revision, and now it looks like someone may have snuck them back into May when they thought no one was looking. Dr. Joe explains it all, including a great way to get back to sleep when insomnia hits.

Toshiba's No-Print Day is Awkward and Scandalous, But Don’t Let It Divert You from Bigger Trends

Published June 18, 2012

The industry's hackles have been raised by Toshiba's No-Print Day, and it's ironic that the company picks a date with some historical importance for print to hold the event. Toshiba's thinking needs to be confronted, but engagement with their audiences is a more important action for our associations and our businesses.

An Economic Update You Won't See in the Press

Published June 11, 2012

Economic conditions are being twisted and distorted by the long-held biases of the business press. The charged political climate of an election year fans passions that magnify momentary small and nearly meaningless changes in economic data into cataclysms or triumphs. You have to step back to see what's really happening, or not happening. Small businesses can't choose economic conditions, but they can choose their means of navigation.

April US Commercial Printing Shipments Down -3.4%; Shipments Down 12 of Last 13 Months

Published June 6, 2012

Latest Recovery Indicators Take a Step Back as Economy Continues Lackluster Growth

Published June 5, 2012

Commerce Department Revises Years of US Commercial Printing Shipments Data; Downward Revisions from 2009 through 2012

Published May 21, 2012

Running Toward Confusion is Good Advice

Published May 21, 2012

Dr. Joe is frequently asked questions at conferences, webinars, and by e-mail from around the world that sometimes turn into columns. This week, as a result of some of those questions, he explains why confusion is good, misconceptions start with ourselves, not others; how digital natives affect the workforce; and other matters. And then, there are those seemingly innocent news items that he puts into a different context. That Dr. Joe... he makes your head hurt sometimes.

The “Half of All Workers Don't Pay Taxes” Mantra is Starting to Get Taxing

Published May 14, 2012

You've heard it many times from many quarters: “Half of all workers don't pay taxes.” Dr. Joe has gotten tired of hearing this and offers a different perspective. He explores who actually pays taxes, why what you commonly hear about taxes is always out of context, and how the benefits of tax avoidance are immediate, predictable, and risk-free. That's exactly what the economy does not need. Everyone will find something to dislike in this column.

Unemployment Better Until You Peek Behind the Curtain; Printing Employment Flat with March

Published May 9, 2012

Recovery Indicators Mixed... Again

Published May 3, 2012

March 2012 US Commercial Printing Shipments $7.145 Billion, Down -4.2% Compared to March 2011

Published May 2, 2012

If Marketing Services Does Not Include Apps, then It's Not Really Marketing Services

Published April 23, 2012

Another drupa is Upon Us... Now What?

Published April 23, 2012

Dr. Joe tells us what drupa and other trade shows mean to the new capital investment patterns of our industry. He thinks capital investments are becoming more tactical than strategic, more continuous than discrete. This is a problem, because “capex” often locks in a vision of media markets, making it harder to adjust to market changes. Just what we need: Dr. Joe having visions again.

Rising Inflation, Deteriorating Worker Earnings, and a Warning About Economic Data Conspiracy Theories

Published April 19, 2012

Unemployment Improves as Workers Leave; Printing Employment Shrinks; A Small Business Setback

Published April 10, 2012

February US Commercial Printing Shipments Flat with 2011

Published April 4, 2012

Recovery Indicators Make a Sideways Move

Published April 4, 2012

Profits Winning Streak Over: Industry Has -$276 Million Loss in 4Q-2011; Finishes 2011 with $2.78 Billion in Profits

Published March 27, 2012

Economic Overview; Changing Channels Not Just for TV

Published March 19, 2012

Dr. Joe tiptoes through the economic data, discusses the nature of efficiency and expansion, and then pontificates about channels that are not of the TV kind. Then he explains why a new high in a stock index is not what it seems. Did we really say tiptoe? Where are the tulips?

Content's Being Created, but Revenue Data Show that if Content is King, it's of a Small Country

Published March 13, 2012

A Sideways Pause in the Recovery Indicators

Published March 6, 2012

January US Commercial Printing Shipments Down -2.4% Compared to 2011

Published March 6, 2012

Cautious Upward Tilt to the Economy Continues

Published March 1, 2012

Bo Sacks's Publishing Perspective as Technology Disrupts the Future

Published February 24, 2012

Head of Precision Media Bo Sacks shares his perspective on the evolving publishing industry with Dr. Joe Webb.

News Stories Underscore Today’s Media Shift and The Need for Action by Print CEOs

Published February 20, 2012

Procter & Gamble, tablet computing, and the S&P 499... Dr. Joe ties them all together and comes up with urgency and entrepreneurship and something about backbones. He even includes one of those really cluttered charts that he's famous for. It's just another Dr. Joe column, but this one might rattle the common wisdom when it doesn't want to be rattled... again.

A Contrarian Word about Economic Data and Forecasts; The US Commercial Printing Forecast 2012-2018

Published February 15, 2012

Dr. Joe and Bo Sacks Talk about Getting Customers to Pay for Digital Content

Published February 10, 2012

Bo Sacks of Precision Media and WhatTheyThink's Dr. Joe Webb have an in-depth discussion about the progression of pay wall business.

US Commercial Printing Shipments End 2011 on Sour Note

Published February 6, 2012

Unemployment Rate Drops, Conspiracy Theories Rise, Economy Improves

Published February 6, 2012

GDP Better on the Surface, but Disappoints; Big Week for Economic Data Ahead

Published January 29, 2012

Welcome Back: I Was Wrong

Published January 23, 2012

Dr. Joe is back and he admits he was wrong. There's a season for everything, it turns out, but not the same ones there used to be. He explains how to be a hit at cocktail parties, and then wonders why we should care about economic forecasting, if at all. Sounds like he's been away from the WhatTheyThink pages a little too long...

All Six Recovery Indicators are Positive: First Time Since May 2011

Published January 16, 2012

November 2011 US Commercial Printing Shipments Down -1.4% Compared to November 2010

Published January 15, 2012

US Commercial Printing Industry Profits Rise for Eight Quarters

Published December 14, 2011

Economic Outlook with Dr. Joe Webb

Published December 9, 2011

Inflation Adjustment in the Printing Industry

Published December 8, 2011

Inflation Adjustment in the Printing Industry presentation.

Mistaken Identity: Stocks, Fed Actions and Print Volume

Published November 29, 2011

Random Thoughts About the Economy, Small Business, the USPS, and Generational Extremes of iPad Use, and Other Matters

Published November 14, 2011

Shift in Employment from Print to Other Media Intensifies

Published November 9, 2011

September 2011 US Commercial Printing Shipments Steady with 2010

Published November 3, 2011

Economy Keeps Moving Sideways as Signs of Recovery Remain Elusive

Published November 3, 2011

Lessons from Steve Jobs

Published October 31, 2011

Steve Jobs' passing created interest in his management style and the culture of the company he left behind. What management lessons apply for other businesses? Is print a commodity? Can print campaigns be too successful for their own good? One printer blamed its disappointing financial results on that very fact.

GDP: A Look Under the Hood Shows a Still Flat Economy

Published October 27, 2011

Real Earnings Lessen as Inflation Moderates, Or Is It Rotten to the Core?

Published October 20, 2011

Unemployment Report Shows Economic Erosion; Recovery Indicators Contract

Published October 11, 2011

August Commercial Printing Shipments Provide Some Relief: +$210 Million in Current Dollars.

Published October 6, 2011

Hunker Down Financially, Market Aggressively

Published September 26, 2011

Dr. Joe explains the bearish outlook for the economy but explains how the advertising agency business has been rising and adding employees. It's important to know who your competitors are, especially in terms of an overlooked factor in decision making, the cost of failure, which sometimes trumps common sense.

US Commercial Printing Profits Rise for Seven Quarters, and Other Comments

Published September 18, 2011

When July Shipments Get Tough, the Tough Go to Graph Expo; Commercial Printing Shipments Down -2.7% in July vs. 2010

Published September 1, 2011

Recession? Sure Feels Like One

Published August 23, 2011

Dr. Joe explains that another recession may have already started, and the thought of that may be all that's needed to create demands for more Fed easing and more fiscal stimulus. The NASDAQ is down -18% from the start of the December 2007 recession on an inflation-adjusted basis. The commodities and consumer inflation trends may actually be slowing right now. Yet again, Dr. Joe explains some of the economic workings that are contrary to the morning news.

Graph Expo, for the Strategy, Not Just the Technology

Published August 18, 2011

Unemployment, the Downgrade, the Stock Rout, and Productivity

Published August 9, 2011

Are You Using the Right Economic Benchmarks for Your Business?

Published August 8, 2011

Is it real? Is it current? No, we're not talking about philosophy or the timeliness of something, we're talking about financial data. Dr. Joe explains how to use national economic data when comparing your business performance to the economy. Use the right tool at the right time.

Recovery Indicators Relapse

Published August 3, 2011

June 2011 US Commercial Printing Shipments Disappoint

Published August 3, 2011

GDP Data Revisions Show Steeper Recession and Unrecovered Economy

Published August 1, 2011

Latest Counts of Business Establishments Show How Printers and Other Business Sectors Were Affected by the Recession

Published July 25, 2011

On the Wrong Side of Creative Destruction: Now What?

Published July 25, 2011

When things are going well, everyone feels like they're the genius who's making it happen. When things get tough, you have to actually be one. Right now, it seems that Apple is a genius, showing how businesses can transcend the tough economic situations they face. A curious sign of change in employment in agencies and design firms as they now exceed commercial printing employment . Dr. Joe told everyone to consider 2010 as breathing room and to use it to urgently reconsider and restructure. In 2011, it is the time to act. He explains that we have to admit that print is a specialty and no longer mainstream as we position our businesses and beloved medium for some hostile media shifts now underway.

The Recession and Recovery in Perspective

Published July 18, 2011

May 2011 Printing Shipments Higher than 2010, but Disappoint on Closer Scrutiny

Published July 13, 2011

Monthly Printing Shipments

Published July 12, 2011

Every month, the US Department of Commerce and Statistics Canada publish data about shipments of their commercial printing industries. US data are usually available 5 weeks after the close of a month, and Canada about 7 weeks after. The WhatTheyThink Economics & Research Center uses these data to develop forecasts of the industry on a current dollar and on an inflation-adjusted dollar basis. The inflation-adjustment shows a truer trend of industry direction. Canada data are also available adjusted for the exchange rate with the US dollar as well as on an inflation-adjusted basis.

Economic Indicators Still Muddling Through; Slowdown Risks Rising

Published July 11, 2011

Changing the Mindset, Part 2 of 2

Published July 11, 2011

Two weeks ago, Dr. Joe discussed the changes that are underway in media and the amazing gadgets that access them. He continues that discussion, revealing some astonishing data about technology adoption and the change in the economic relationship of advertising agency and commercial printing demographics. Urgency is the new mandate for the print business owner, according to Dr. Webb. That probably means you should read this column right now.

Random Thoughts at the End of the Second Quarter

Published June 29, 2011

Changing Our Mindset, Part 1 of 2

Published June 27, 2011

Dr. Joe takes a hard look at the nature of media, the costs and definition of journalism, and what cloud computing means. It's one of those eclectic mixes of data and information that the good Doctor has been known to conjure up. The brew is so big that it has to be spread over two columns! Watch for the next edition on July 11th.

The Efficiency Economy

Published June 21, 2011

Six Consecutive Profitable Quarters for U.S. Commercial Printing Businesses

Published June 15, 2011

The first quarter of 2011 continued a welcome continuation of profitability for the industry. The industry shakeout of unprofitable businesses, and the better management of healthier businesses continues to create an improved bottom line, but there are still great challenges ahead. The restructuring of the industry will be a continuing process in 2011 and beyond.

Will We Be Pining for 2008 the Way We Miss 1998?

Published June 13, 2011

We wish April showers were dollars flowing into print businesses, but that did not seem to happen. Who would have thought that we would miss 2004-2008, looking at that period as a time of stability? One of our recovery indicators, the NASDAQ, seems to have relapsed and may be heading for rehab. Perhaps the wild and fun ride it had on Ben Bernanke's QE2 has now come to an end. It may not get another cruise until he pilots a brand new ship, QE3, but rumors of that cruise liner's voyage are just that-rumors. QE2's huge midnight buffet was nice, but the economic heartburn may take a while to pass.

April 2011 U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Down

Published June 9, 2011

April 2011 commercial printing shipments were $7.08 billion, down -$109 million (-1.5%) compared to 2010. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were down -$366 million (-4.5%).

Economy Gets Pause that Isn't Refreshing

Published June 3, 2011

Counterintuitive Economics

Published May 30, 2011

USPS Volume Mix Changes; Periodicals Still Declining

Published May 24, 2011

Urgency Gets No Summer Vacation This Year

Published May 23, 2011

What do Social Security checks, grandchildren, bedtime and doctors have in common? Dr. Joe explains it all, and has some suggestions about what the industry should be thinking about during summer vacations and summer shutdowns. He's on the "it's 1994 again" rant once more, so you've been warned.

Inflation and Worker Earnings Moving in the Wrong Directions

Published May 15, 2011

The L-Shaped Recovery Rolls On

Published May 9, 2011

Unemployment went up, but the headlines were happy. Commodities prices drop sharply, but how far they have risen seems to be forgotten. The Fed feels rewarded for its inaction, and Dr. Joe finds a silver lining.

March 2011 U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up; Twelve Months of Increases

Published May 6, 2011

March printing shipments were up, resulting in 12 consecutive months of increase. Dr. Webb explains how the easy comparisons to the prior year are about to end, and that the balance of 2011 will be about the same as 2010. He reviews the upcoming data revisions from the Commerce Department on May 13, the importance of inflation adjusting company financial data, and the shipment rates of Canada's commercial printing industry.

Recovery Indicators Better than the Recession Start, but are Now Stalling

Published May 4, 2011

Q1 GDP Disappoints, but No One is Surprised

Published April 28, 2011

Shocking News! Gas is One-Fifth the Price it Was in 1980: Here's Why

Published April 25, 2011

Things are never what they seem in economics, like how we paid $10.78 per gallon for gas in 1980. Dr. Joe explains the strange math that reminds us about the distortions of inflation and the wonder of ingenuity, and how news reporters unaware of them. Pepsi made a huge blunder with social media, but we should be encouraged by their mistake because it should inspire print business executives that they are just as smart as those Ivy League execs with all their market research reports. We may have the ultimate weapon: common sense.

Q&A for Economic Webinar of April 20, 2011

Published April 21, 2011

Economic Casablanca: I am Shocked! Shocked!

Published April 19, 2011

Still Trudging Through and Trudging Some More

Published April 11, 2011

Today's economic conditions make economists wish they had more hands and while making the common people more frustrated in their attempts to figure it out. Oil and food are rising in price, but the economy seems better in some ways with some reports of improving employment. GDP is still rising, but some industries are still suffering. Dr. Joe explains why just staying busy is not enough and that it's what you're doing that really matters.

U.S. Commercial Printing Businesses Produce Estimated $1.11 Billion in Profits in Fourth Quarter 2010

Published April 6, 2011

Dr. Joe Webb has compiled reports on US commercial printing profits going back to 1995, and brings it all current to Q4 2010. This report examines the latest trends in shipments, profits and capacity for the industry, of which the Federal Reserve just made revisions going back almost 25 years. How does Joe recommend printers steer the course? What will it take to get the print industry out of the hole? Dr. Webb has insights that can help.

Five of Six Recovery Indicators are Positive (CORRECTED)

Published April 5, 2011

February 2011 U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +4.4%, Eleven Months of Y-O-Y Increases

Published April 5, 2011

Dr. Webb looks at February's shipments, Canada's January shipments, and updated forecasts for the North American printing industry to 2017. There's an updated GDP Forecast model and commentary on why that model is not totally reliable for forecasting the print industry. Will the rest of 2011 be as positive as January and February? Dr. Joe discusses.