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Dr. Joe Webb

Dr. Joe Webb is one of the graphic arts industry's best-known consultants, forecasters, and commentators. He is the director of WhatTheyThink's Economics and Research Center.

Recent Commentary & Analysis from Dr. Joe Webb

Displaying 1-24 of 1304 articles

Premium Content Lost in the Economy: Patience

Published April 16, 2018

“Staying the course” does not refer to golf, but might be an answer to “Aren’t we there yet?” When all of your economic models are based on something old, and not something new, that could make you blue, and confused. Since we’re now talking about weddings of the business kind, the Amazon-USPS wedding has gotten a lot of press lately. Don’t they take such a pretty picture together? Well, maybe not. The relationship solves one problem and creates another. No, not the in-laws again… what do they want now?

 

Federal Reserve Updates Industrial Production Data Series

Published April 13, 2018

The Federal Reserve revised 2015–2017 industrial production down from its original reports, meaning that industrial production peaked in 2014 and then slowed. The initial data made things seem better than what consumers and employees were actually experiencing.

 

Q4-2017 GDP Revisions Stronger than Earlier Reports

Published April 6, 2018

Q4-2017 GDP estimates were raised to +2.9% from the original estimate of +2.5%. (But beware inventories.) At the same time, shenanigans resulting from the latest tax bill are blurring statistics visibility, especially where corporate profits are concerned.

 

Dr. Joe: It’s Time to Stop Cooperating with Postal Reform

Published March 30, 2018

Forget postal reform; Dr. Joe Webb calls for privatization of the postal system.

 

Premium Content Conflicts, Inconsistencies, and Misrepresentations: Situation is Normal

Published March 19, 2018

Trade tariff talk has confused the markets, but so have the recent economic data. Employment data look great, retail sales look bad, consumer confidence surges in the lowest third of households by income. Explain that, Dr. Joe! He does, and offers insight into the selection of Larry Kudlow as the President’s economic advisor. There may be no free lunches, but Dr. Joe has some free podcasts and a webinar. Get them now before someone proposes a tariff on electrons.

 

US Commercial Printing Capital Expenditures

Published March 9, 2018

The capital expenditures of commercial printers fell in 2016, but the investment in less expensive used equipment may have been a major factor.

 

Premium Content Canada’s Commercial Printing Shipments 1992-2017

Published March 2, 2018

Canada’s printing industry has been holding steady compared to the US, despite being subject to the same competition from digital media

 

Premium Content Stocks Gyrate, CapEx Shuffles, and Dr. Joe’s a Video Star

Published February 19, 2018

The countdown for Dr. Joe’s departure continues with four months to go. Please, let’s hope his brief video stardom does not go to his head. That head of his may not fit through the doorway when it’s time for his exit. The stock market is up…and then it’s down…blame it on visibility. Small business optimism is booming, and maybe the economy will get the hint. The industry’s capital investment is changing, with the appetite for used equipment increasing. But wait…there’s more to this month’s Dr. Joe submission.

 

Consumer Durable Goods Still Struggle to Reach Recession Levels

Published February 16, 2018

CPI-adjusted consumer durable goods manufacturing remains well below its pre-recession level—one of the reasons that GDP has been so lackluster.

 

Q4-2018 GDP +2.6%, But +3.2% Excluding Inventory Effects

Published February 9, 2018

The first report of fourth quarter GDP was a disappointing +2.6%. Sources such as the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow and the New York Fed’s Nowcast were for a stronger reading. Inventories are a major factor in the volatility of GDP data, and excluding that data, the economy neared those estimates, producing a much better +3.2% rate compared to Q3.

 

2017 NAICS 323 US Commercial Printing Industry Shipments

Published February 2, 2018

The US Commerce Department has released data for November 2017, and this is the first look at the full year by making an estimate for December. Based on shipment and employment trends, it appears that 2017 came in at $76.3 in current dollars. That's a -6.4% decrease in current dollars compared to 2016, and a -8.4% decrease on an inflation-adjusted basis. The chart includes selected prior years starting at 1995. December data will be released at the beginning of February, and will be revised in March. In May, the Commerce Department will revise the last three years of data, plus minor revisions to the years prior to that.

 

Latest Inflation Adjustment Multipliers

Published January 29, 2018

Inflation distorts our interpretation of history and clouds business decisions. All dollars may look alike, but what a dollar bought in 1950 is a lot different than a dollar in 2017. Unfortunately, commercial printing prices have not kept up with inflation, but the costs of running a printing business usually have. This means that it's harder to keep earnings and payrolls up to this level. If past dollars had greater value, this chart can be used to adjust past financial statements to bring those data to current value. This is especially important in budgeting processes where looking for trends in prior years is one way of assessing performance and goals.

 

Premium Content Economy Growing, Big and Small; Who Owns Our Businesses?

Published January 22, 2018

Dr. Joe has a special message: he was wrong 15 years ago, and it worked out fine. The economy is showing improvement, and some reluctant data series are starting to be break their recession levels. Government shutdown? That won't stop them from collecting taxes! Many of the economic indicators show a strong Q4-2017 GDP report is in the offing - but the shutdown may prevent that data release. Dr. Joe warns of a data issues ahead - if small business booms, it may not be recognized right away. But there's one difference in big and small that's showing up right now in printing profits data.

 

Premium Content Dr. Joe: A Potpourri of Workers, Taxes, Profits, Rates, Digits, and More

Published December 18, 2017

The fifteenth year of Dr. Joe at WhatTheyThink comes to a close, and he’s got a lot of topics (and some charts, of course) to get off his mind. Tax reform, recruitment, hours online, profits, consolidation...you name it, it’s probably mentioned in this year’s final column. Oh, and we forgot Bitcoin...that’s here too.

 

Tax Reform May be Near; Only Dr. Doom Would Celebrate a Recession Anniversary

Published December 4, 2017

What’s more important than tax reform? A tenth anniversary! It’s been ten years since the recession started. What does one get as a gift? We’re told it’s tin or aluminum. Does that mean someone’s giving all of us litho plates? Tax reform is a much better gift for the celebration. The reform is flawed, but better than nothing. There are some signs that the economy is improving for real, and Dr. Joe has his unique twist to offer.

 

The Truth is Not Always in the Headline

Published November 20, 2017

Look at the shiny object, and please don’t peek behind the curtain. It’s a data game that’s played by many, and it starts with a good headline, and sometimes includes a great chart. A rising stock market without increasing revenue? Declining e-book sales that conveniently ignore niches that are contrary? And then there’s one for the record: the LP record. A pretty chart makes that story convincing, but only if you forget history. Don’t fall into that vinyl LP trap: there’s a hole in the middle of it.

 

Premium Content Fed Change Means Fed Same, Shipments Tumble, Economy Muddles, and Can I Interest You in the Best Leftovers Ever?

Published November 6, 2017

We have a new chair at the Fed who is likely to stay the course, no matter how damaging that is. This month’s shiny object is the unemployment rate; don’t look at how it got there. A kerfuffle and a scuffle, and it all happened because of used equipment, which means the once mighty aren’t any more. And printing shipments… can we talk about something else?

 

Premium Content The Fed, Economic Data, and Other Topics

Published October 23, 2017

It’s an interesting time at the Fed, especially when Dr. Yellen’s turn is expiring and one of Dr. Joe’s favorite candidates is in the running. There’s a lot of claims about jobless claims, and the claims are not really what they’re claiming. Labels and wrappers? That’s a tiny niche market in the big printing industry. Now 1 in 8 commercial printing dollars are in that specialty.

 

Premium Content High Winds Uproot Data

Published October 9, 2017

The hurricanes affected not just the lives of the people who experienced them, but also affected basic economic data. And yes, you can be employed and unemployed at the same exact time, in the same exact government department. The data seem strange, but the long term trends stayed the same. That’s why we call them long term trends. And August’s printing shipments? Don’t ask! There’s a video from a distinguished leader that’s worth seeing… and worth pondering… about print as a medium and you as a business.

 

E-commerce is the only reason retail is growing

Published October 5, 2017

Inflation and population changes often distort the analysis of economic trends. This chart shows the changing nature of retail sales on a per capita (per person) and inflation-adjusted (using the Consumer Price Index) basis by the percentage change compared to the same period of the prior year.

 

Premium Content Are Your Strategic Assumptions Really True?

Published September 25, 2017

There are many “common wisdom” assumptions in the industry. One that refuses to die relates to print volume being related to GDP. The data are very clear; it’s technology that plays a bigger factor than macroeconomics. The other is that the effects of digital media will come to an end or will slow down. That one is obviously false; Moore’s Law may not be what it used to be, but we see how technology gets faster, cheaper, and more convenient every day. Bad assumptions lead to bad strategy, lead to dismissing opportunities that should be pursued, and reduce the urgency to act. Don’t let that happen to you or your business.

 

Premium Content The Old Guard and the Economy Limps into Print 17; a Different Industry Takes Charge

Published September 12, 2017

Who didn’t envy or aspire to become a big, high profile printing business? The print business has been turned on its head, where small and medium businesses are outperforming their much bigger counterparts. The latter are still dealing with the relevance of legacy processes and assets while trying to bring new focus to rich digital media interactions to static formats like print. There’s no doubt: The Third Wave is being released at a pivotal moment. While the industry is churning, there are warning signs in the economy and for content creation markets. Dr. Joe is getting that 2008 feeling: he doesn’t like it.

 

Dr. Joe's Key Recovery Indicators

Published September 11, 2017

The recovery indicators (when we started these we thought they’d be around for about a year or so) had four of its six factors turn negative, with one of those falling back to its recession level of December 2007. Yes, that’s when the recession started. That long ago.

 

Catching the “Third Wave”

Published September 5, 2017

We’re in another wave of media change, the first with the consumer Internet, the second with social media, tablets, and smartphones, and now a third with an infrastructure built for heavy volume and high speed. Through two waves, there were printers who got out ahead with savvy judgment that went against the common wisdom and blazed their own paths of market engagement and abandoned industry practice. This third wave is already more intense, as printing shipments in the last six months are down more than -7%. Success in this third wave demands a new philosophy, a different understanding of capital, and a new assessment of risk. Dr. Joe offers The Third Wave, a new book, that addresses these issues.

 

Dr. Joe Recommends: Robots and Unemployment, Edge computing

Published August 17, 2017

Dr. Joe recommended reading.

 

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