News Stories Underscore Today’s Media Shift and The Need for Action by Print CEOs
Published February 20, 2012
Procter & Gamble, tablet computing, and the S&P 499... Dr. Joe ties them all together and comes up with urgency and entrepreneurship and something about backbones. He even includes one of those really cluttered charts that he's famous for. It's just another Dr. Joe column, but this one might rattle the common wisdom when it doesn't want to be rattled... again.
Welcome Back: I Was Wrong
Published January 23, 2012
Dr. Joe is back and he admits he was wrong. There's a season for everything, it turns out, but not the same ones there used to be. He explains how to be a hit at cocktail parties, and then wonders why we should care about economic forecasting, if at all. Sounds like he's been away from the WhatTheyThink pages a little too long...
Economic Outlook with Dr. Joe Webb
Published December 9, 2011
Lessons from Steve Jobs
Published October 31, 2011
Steve Jobs' passing created interest in his management style and the culture of the company he left behind. What management lessons apply for other businesses? Is print a commodity? Can print campaigns be too successful for their own good? One printer blamed its disappointing financial results on that very fact.
Hunker Down Financially, Market Aggressively
Published September 26, 2011
Dr. Joe explains the bearish outlook for the economy but explains how the advertising agency business has been rising and adding employees. It's important to know who your competitors are, especially in terms of an overlooked factor in decision making, the cost of failure, which sometimes trumps common sense.
Recession? Sure Feels Like One
Published August 23, 2011
Dr. Joe explains that another recession may have already started, and the thought of that may be all that's needed to create demands for more Fed easing and more fiscal stimulus. The NASDAQ is down -18% from the start of the December 2007 recession on an inflation-adjusted basis. The commodities and consumer inflation trends may actually be slowing right now. Yet again, Dr. Joe explains some of the economic workings that are contrary to the morning news.
Are You Using the Right Economic Benchmarks for Your Business?
Published August 8, 2011
Is it real? Is it current? No, we're not talking about philosophy or the timeliness of something, we're talking about financial data. Dr. Joe explains how to use national economic data when comparing your business performance to the economy. Use the right tool at the right time.
On the Wrong Side of Creative Destruction: Now What?
Published July 25, 2011
When things are going well, everyone feels like they're the genius who's making it happen. When things get tough, you have to actually be one. Right now, it seems that Apple is a genius, showing how businesses can transcend the tough economic situations they face. A curious sign of change in employment in agencies and design firms as they now exceed commercial printing employment . Dr. Joe told everyone to consider 2010 as breathing room and to use it to urgently reconsider and restructure. In 2011, it is the time to act. He explains that we have to admit that print is a specialty and no longer mainstream as we position our businesses and beloved medium for some hostile media shifts now underway.
Monthly Printing Shipments
Published July 12, 2011
Every month, the US Department of Commerce and Statistics Canada publish data about shipments of their commercial printing industries. US data are usually available 5 weeks after the close of a month, and Canada about 7 weeks after. The WhatTheyThink Economics & Research Center uses these data to develop forecasts of the industry on a current dollar and on an inflation-adjusted dollar basis. The inflation-adjustment shows a truer trend of industry direction. Canada data are also available adjusted for the exchange rate with the US dollar as well as on an inflation-adjusted basis.
Changing the Mindset, Part 2 of 2
Published July 11, 2011
Two weeks ago, Dr. Joe discussed the changes that are underway in media and the amazing gadgets that access them. He continues that discussion, revealing some astonishing data about technology adoption and the change in the economic relationship of advertising agency and commercial printing demographics. Urgency is the new mandate for the print business owner, according to Dr. Webb. That probably means you should read this column right now.
Changing Our Mindset, Part 1 of 2
Published June 27, 2011
Dr. Joe takes a hard look at the nature of media, the costs and definition of journalism, and what cloud computing means. It's one of those eclectic mixes of data and information that the good Doctor has been known to conjure up. The brew is so big that it has to be spread over two columns! Watch for the next edition on July 11th.
Six Consecutive Profitable Quarters for U.S. Commercial Printing Businesses
Published June 15, 2011
The first quarter of 2011 continued a welcome continuation of profitability for the industry. The industry shakeout of unprofitable businesses, and the better management of healthier businesses continues to create an improved bottom line, but there are still great challenges ahead. The restructuring of the industry will be a continuing process in 2011 and beyond.
Will We Be Pining for 2008 the Way We Miss 1998?
Published June 13, 2011
We wish April showers were dollars flowing into print businesses, but that did not seem to happen. Who would have thought that we would miss 2004-2008, looking at that period as a time of stability? One of our recovery indicators, the NASDAQ, seems to have relapsed and may be heading for rehab. Perhaps the wild and fun ride it had on Ben Bernanke's QE2 has now come to an end. It may not get another cruise until he pilots a brand new ship, QE3, but rumors of that cruise liner's voyage are just that-rumors. QE2's huge midnight buffet was nice, but the economic heartburn may take a while to pass.
April 2011 U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Down
Published June 9, 2011
April 2011 commercial printing shipments were $7.08 billion, down -$109 million (-1.5%) compared to 2010. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were down -$366 million (-4.5%).
Urgency Gets No Summer Vacation This Year
Published May 23, 2011
What do Social Security checks, grandchildren, bedtime and doctors have in common? Dr. Joe explains it all, and has some suggestions about what the industry should be thinking about during summer vacations and summer shutdowns. He's on the "it's 1994 again" rant once more, so you've been warned.
The L-Shaped Recovery Rolls On
Published May 9, 2011
Unemployment went up, but the headlines were happy. Commodities prices drop sharply, but how far they have risen seems to be forgotten. The Fed feels rewarded for its inaction, and Dr. Joe finds a silver lining.
March 2011 U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up; Twelve Months of Increases
Published May 6, 2011
March printing shipments were up, resulting in 12 consecutive months of increase. Dr. Webb explains how the easy comparisons to the prior year are about to end, and that the balance of 2011 will be about the same as 2010. He reviews the upcoming data revisions from the Commerce Department on May 13, the importance of inflation adjusting company financial data, and the shipment rates of Canada's commercial printing industry.
Shocking News! Gas is One-Fifth the Price it Was in 1980: Here's Why
Published April 25, 2011
Things are never what they seem in economics, like how we paid $10.78 per gallon for gas in 1980. Dr. Joe explains the strange math that reminds us about the distortions of inflation and the wonder of ingenuity, and how news reporters unaware of them. Pepsi made a huge blunder with social media, but we should be encouraged by their mistake because it should inspire print business executives that they are just as smart as those Ivy League execs with all their market research reports. We may have the ultimate weapon: common sense.
Still Trudging Through and Trudging Some More
Published April 11, 2011
Today's economic conditions make economists wish they had more hands and while making the common people more frustrated in their attempts to figure it out. Oil and food are rising in price, but the economy seems better in some ways with some reports of improving employment. GDP is still rising, but some industries are still suffering. Dr. Joe explains why just staying busy is not enough and that it's what you're doing that really matters.
U.S. Commercial Printing Businesses Produce Estimated $1.11 Billion in Profits in Fourth Quarter 2010
Published April 6, 2011
Dr. Joe Webb has compiled reports on US commercial printing profits going back to 1995, and brings it all current to Q4 2010. This report examines the latest trends in shipments, profits and capacity for the industry, of which the Federal Reserve just made revisions going back almost 25 years. How does Joe recommend printers steer the course? What will it take to get the print industry out of the hole? Dr. Webb has insights that can help.
February 2011 U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +4.4%, Eleven Months of Y-O-Y Increases
Published April 5, 2011
Dr. Webb looks at February's shipments, Canada's January shipments, and updated forecasts for the North American printing industry to 2017. There's an updated GDP Forecast model and commentary on why that model is not totally reliable for forecasting the print industry. Will the rest of 2011 be as positive as January and February? Dr. Joe discusses.
“I Can’t Eat an iPad”
Published March 21, 2011
While he loves computers, when it comes to dinnertime, Dr. Joe still prefers food. Seems the Fed would prefer we think otherwise. As far as understanding inflation at its core, a good meal can go a long way if you have the money for it. He takes a new look at a dead French economist. And considers the print execs you won’t see in San Francisco mid-April.
January 2011 U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +4.1%, Good Start to New Year
Published March 10, 2011
Dr. Webb comments on what the forecasting models are projecting for shipments out to 2017. The podcast also includes an analysis of how the industry has changed between 2000 and 2009 based on the latest data from the Commerce Department.
The Frosting Looks Great, But the Cake is Awful
Published March 7, 2011
Reading past the headlines seems to be Dr. Joe's specialty since no one else is doing it, especially with last Friday's unemployment report. Printing shipments were up in 2010, and January was a strong month, but printing employment seems to tell a different tale. Beware of academics bearing jargon: Dr. Joe explains why “Ph.D.” sometimes, as the old joke goes, means “piled higher and deeper.”
Caution: Risks of Economic Disappointment are Rising
Published February 21, 2011
Just as the economy seems to be improving, Dr. Joe is back with his Dr. Doom persona. He thinks it's justified based on the latest inflation and wage data, and makes the case accordingly. The pace of technological change seems to be independent of the economic situation, and while Dr. Joe suggests that caution is the economic watchword, he says that the continued rapid rate of technological change should lead to urgent and direct management action in print businesses.
