Dr. Joe reviews the latest economic data

Published June 21, 2010

Dr. Joe reviews the latest economic data and explains where we're headed for the third and fourth quarters and why.

Content Creation Markets: Top-Line Revenue Trends

Published June 18, 2010

Printing Profits Improving: Q1-2010 is Up $830 Million vs. Q1-2009

Published June 15, 2010

First Quarter 2010 Profits for U.S. Commercial Printing Businesses

Published June 15, 2010

The first quarter of 2010 was a significant change compared to the same quarter of last year. The industry had a difficult time in 2009, and the profits that were initially reported for the fourth quarter of 2009 were swept away in a data revision by the Commerce Department. But 2009 was profitable, and this first quarter of 2010 was very encouraging. Profit levels are increasing, not because of higher market prices, but because of employee downsizing, and the departure of weakest printers. Dr. Webb emphasized that there are still challenges ahead because of the continuing growth of new communications that will affect the demand for print. We must remember that just because the industry may be having a tough time, there are profitable companies who are offering innovative services to their clients. The restructuring of the industry will be built on the entrepreneurial actions of these firms.

"Print is Not Dead" Should be DOA

Published June 14, 2010

A man walks into a pet store, holding a bird cage by its handle, and approaches the counter. At the bottom of the cage is a blue parrot, claws up. The man and the clerk engage in some banter, not about the bird being dead, but how beautiful its plumage is. Why is it that “print is not dead” only conjures up some decades-old Monty Python sketch? Dr. Joe explains how just having a pulse does not qualify one for a new and dynamic communications marketplace... how new technology is conspiring to make us a craft industry, yet again.

April 2010 commercial printing shipments

Published June 7, 2010

April 2010 commercial printing shipments were $7.05 billion, down -1.9% compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were down -4.1%. For the first four months of 2010, shipments were down -4.7% on a current dollar basis.

Jobs Report Highlights What the Real Problems of the Economy Are

Published June 4, 2010

Recovery Indicators Take a Pause that Might Actually be for Refreshment

Published June 3, 2010

Is Bullishness at IPEX a Positive Sign?

Published May 25, 2010

Is the Case for the Double-Dip Recession Stronger Now?

Published May 24, 2010

Double-dip usually means a diet-busting serving of ice cream. If ice cream is easy money, and the diet is the judicious use of credit, then it's another way to explain Europe's economic crisis. To paraphrase the old saying, “What if they gave a V-shaped recovery and nobody came,” might be what's happening to the economy. When no one's certain what's ahead, they focus on what they know.

Does ROI Miss the Mark? Is ROT Better?

Published May 20, 2010

Commerce Department Revises Printing Shipments Data

Published May 17, 2010

The Department of Commerce revised almost 10 years of printing industry shipments data last week. The WhatTheyThink economic data elves dug into the data and explain what those revisions mean, what years were revised up, and which ones were revised down.

The Other Diversity and Furrowed Brows

Published May 13, 2010

Does it Have Legs? The Economy's Still Wearing Long Pants

Published May 10, 2010

The unemployment report was released Friday, and though it was almost 10%, there was good news. Will it last? Print and GDP continue their decade-plus estrangement. Disposable income is not the money you throw away, but the money you can spend as you wish. Well, maybe it is the money you throw away. Unless something changes, some of that money will go to filling out forms. Nothing like bureaucracy as a growth business.

Economy Recovery Indicators Show Positive Signs, Despite New Worries

Published May 5, 2010

Year/Year Changes in Real GDP vs. Real Proprietors Income

Published May 3, 2010

The first quarter GDP showed that the economy is growing, but that was compared to the fourth quarter. How is GDP changing on a year-to-year comparison? The GDP data are about the whole economy, but how is small business doing? Dr. Joe explains how a rarely reported part of the quarterly GDP data helps us judge the health of small businesses.

Nearly Mindless Ramblings

Published April 29, 2010

On Recoveries and CAPEX Investment Cycles: Why This is Different

Published April 26, 2010

A rising tide makes everyone a genius, even the bad managers. The improving economy is a less powerful trend than the upheavals that digital media are creating. Capital investment by printers is being affected by consolidation, the upside-down condition of interest rates, investments in new media, and a shift in industry print processes. For those waiting for the old economic and investment cycles to repeat themselves, this will be disappointing.

A Quick Look at the Economy

Published April 22, 2010

Inflation-adjusted and Annualized Publishing and Advertising Revenues

Published April 19, 2010

The trends in industry revenues of advertising and publishing sectors each tell an interesting story. They get more interesting once iPhones, Kindles, and iPads are added to the mix. Dr. Joe explains it all, but may have more questions than answers, which might spell opportunities for print businesses.

Change, the Conversation

Published April 15, 2010

Print is Not Vital but the Print Business Should Be

Published April 12, 2010

The power of print. Print is vital. Print has had longer than a decade of power outage. Print is not vital, print is a choice, and sometimes that choice is "no." Now what? In this kind of environment, the printing business becomes more important than the print medium. How that all plays out is up to our entrepreneurs. Dr. Joe explains.

Recovery Indicators Show Signs of Robust Growth: Can We Count on Them?

Published April 8, 2010

Q1 2010 Webinar Post Event Q&A

Published April 7, 2010

ISM Manufacturing Index Shows Eight Months of Growth

Published April 5, 2010

The ISM Manufacturing Index is one of the most watched economic indicators. It's up for 8 consecutive months, and the latest release was one of the strongest of this decade. Dr. Joe gives some background and explains what this latest reading means.

First, The Good News

Published March 22, 2010

Dr. Joe gives us the good news... first... and there really is some! Then he explains how some of the good news is like a Hollywood movie set: great facades, and then only braces and forms behind them, but some of it is really good. He then reminds us that turmoil creates opportunities, and turmoil also creates content. The challenge to printing entrepreneurs is to translate that to value for their businesses.

As The Industry Churns

Published March 15, 2010

The Census Bureau publishes printing industry births and deaths data, but the data take years to be published. The latest data are from 2006, but Dr. Joe estimates what's happened since,especially 2008 and 2009.

Weathering the Employment and Printing Shipments Data

Published March 8, 2010

The employment report was better than the cable channel talking heads thought it would be. Printing shipments continued their unfortunate relationship with economic growth. The Postal Service continues  a summer sale initiative that only fat cats can like.

Recovery Indicators Take Another Sidestep

Published March 4, 2010

Just When I Thought We Were Becoming Japan, Stagflation Seems More Likely Again

Published February 22, 2010

Is the U.S. Economy playing out like 1990s Japan or 1970s U.S. stagflation? Dr. Joe changes his mind... again. All it took was the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index releases of last week. Well, so much for his lecturing about the tendency of managers to react to the last thing they hear rather than pondering things. He also suggests buying oil with gold might be a good idea after looking at the last 20 years of data. That should be interesting to try during the New England heating season when the oil truck stops by. And if you thought Keynes was dead, you should see his new rap video with Frederich A. Hayek. If dead economists can make a rap video, can Elvis be far behind?

Marketing Services is the Easy Answer, Just Like Buying New Equipment Always Was

Published February 17, 2010

Broadband hours and the statistical relationship with printing volumes

Published February 15, 2010

Broadband use by adults has been increasing and the number of households with broadband service has almost doubled since 2005. What's the relationship with commercial printing volume? Last year, there were about 48 billion hours of broadband use by households, and every additional hour of use decreases commercial print volume by about $2.

How Printing Industry Employment has Changed Since 2000

Published February 10, 2010

Nothing Confuses Like Statistics

Published February 8, 2010

Things are not always what they seem, especially when statistics are involved. How else can one explain a GDP report of +5.7% and a decrease in the unemployment rate being matched with long faces and pessimism? The economic side-step is continuing, and a mild upturn is being viewed with suspicion. Every time there's good economic data, it seems to barely survive the headline and first paragraph of its press release without devolving into adjustments, revisions, and clarifications. Our job as managers is not just requiring navigation skills, but seems to need a refresher course in defensive driving.

Is the Recovery Sputtering Already? Caution is the Word

Published February 3, 2010

Year/Year US Gross Domestic Product

Published February 1, 2010

Why was Q4-09 GDP +5.7% met with a stock market decline and more handwringing about the economy? Dr. Joe looks at the yearly change in GDP, and explains it all.

Disrupting the Future

Published February 1, 2010

A contrarian look at the printing industry and the new rules and strategies needed to succeed.

Apple's iPad, a Great Leap Forward of... The Same Trends We Already Knew

Published January 28, 2010

Newspaper Industry Woes Not Being Cured By Online Revenues

Published January 25, 2010

Newspapers were supposed to survive the new media age because of their highly educated, high income audience, and then when that didn't work, their superior content would make news websites into Internet advertising magnets. Now, even online advertising is shrinking for newspapers. What's next?

Adjusting Your Company Financials for Inflation, And Why You Should Do It

Published January 20, 2010

Same Old, Same Old is Getting Tiresome

Published January 18, 2010

Dr. Joe starts his eighth year with WhatTheyThink, and he's less Dr. Doom-ish. There are some signs, though not confirmed, that the industry may have finally finished riding a steep and traumatic downdraft and found a steadier level with a more gradual and predictable outcome. November shipments were down at the lowest rate of any month in 2009, and there were only 100 fewer print workers in December than there were in November. The national economy still has its problems, employment is actually worse than most realize, and incomes are still under pressure. The Bureau of Labor Statistics forecast print employment for 2018, and their forecast is, unfortunately, already fulfilled.

The Recovery Indicators: Sideways is Better than Down

Published January 14, 2010

Dr. Joe Answers Economic Webinar Questions ? Part 2 of 2

Published December 15, 2009

Commerical Printing and Services Shipments 2003-2015

Published December 14, 2009

Dr. Joe Answers Economic Webinar Questions ? Part 1 of 2

Published December 10, 2009

Oh, Those Cable TV Talking Heads

Published December 7, 2009

You'd think that all of the economic wounds of the U.S. economy were healed all at once when last Friday's unemployment report was announced. For some reason, the good news in it was glossed over, and the bad news was ignored.

Number of US Commercial Printing and Print Services Establishments 2003-2015

Published December 7, 2009

Is It Good or Bad: Make Up Your Mind Already!

Published December 2, 2009

Change In Number Of Employees For Commerical Printing & Services

Published November 30, 2009

If You Can't Do It Well, Don't Do It

Published November 18, 2009

Let's Be Strategically Social

Published November 16, 2009

Where did Dr. Joe go when he was stumped about social media? Amazingly, he used social media. Social media is not one big online cocktail party or teenagers arranging to meet up at the mall. It's real business that requires a strategy, and it's more like broadcasting than it is a one-time project. The rules for social media are still being written through trial and error every day, and it's brought new focus to public relations professionals. Dr. Joe recommends some resources to take a decisive step into this critical new area of business and social communications.

Canada's Printing Industry as a Percentage of GDP

Published November 16, 2009

Are You on a Treadmill or are You Running the Race?

Published November 12, 2009

Dr Joe Encounters Windows 7

Published November 9, 2009

That Was the Economic Week That Was

Published November 9, 2009

The talking heads were shocked that unemployment hit 10.2%, but had they read the news all week, it would have been no surprise. There was news that almost seemed good in the report, but despite—or perhaps because of—their shock, the talking heads missed it. The Federal Reserve is doing its best Nero imitation as the dollar weakens, and they keep mistaking credit for capital. Don't tell the paper companies, but instead of wasting time complaining about China, they should be focusing on helping their customers deal with competition from digital media. Are they taking Nero lessons from Ben Bernanke?

September 2009 Commercial Printing Shipments

Published November 9, 2009

Recovery or Not? The Latest WhatTheyThink ERC Recovery Indicators

Published November 4, 2009

An Action-Packed Week Ahead, If You Love Economic Data

Published November 2, 2009

Economy geeks just love weeks like this. The beginning of the month has some of the most incredible data from the Institute for Supply Management, the Commerce Department, and especially, the Bureau of Labor Statistics. All of the data are highly charged politically, and it's hard to see through the fog to assess what's right. But these macroeconomic data don't really matter when you're running a business. It's important to keep them in the right perspective.

Use of Social Media Services by Commercial Printers by employee size

Published November 2, 2009

Use of Social Media Services by Commercial Printers by employee size

GDP +3.5%: Beware the Cheerleaders

Published October 29, 2009

A Flood of E-Books?

Published October 26, 2009

E-books are not books, they're e-commerce sites that let you read books. Small businesses are cutting their ad budgets but increasing their digital spending. What the government statisticians giveth one week, they taketh away the next week. The Road Warrior thinks you shouldn't buy Windows 7, but buy a new computer instead, unless you're a Linux geek like he is. You know you're getting old when Patty Duke is making Social Security commercials and you can remember a time when the price of a color scanner had a comma, and there were five zeroes in the price.

Use of Social Media Services by U.S. Commercial Printers

Published October 26, 2009

Are the Economists Becoming Whining Losers?

Published October 22, 2009

Not Every Day is Easy When You're in Recovery

Published October 19, 2009

The bumpy bottom is just that. When things improve, how do we know it's for real? If we just consult our lucky numbers, we may feel good. But we have to look past the attractiveness and take an objective look at what these lucky numbers really mean. If lucky numbers aren't lucky, then the real numbers should be better. Real numbers can be just as murky, especially when they deal with employment. Could Dr. Joe be wrong about stagflation? He takes a new look and explains it all.

Federal Reserve NAICS 323 Capacity Utilization Data

Published October 19, 2009

Leave the Baggage Behind, and Cover the Rear-view Mirror

Published October 14, 2009

Planning Often Gets in the Way of Running Business Well

Published October 12, 2009

I finally got to one of those books in my “to read when I find some time” pile, Strategy Bites Back, published in early 2005. The principal author is Henry Mintzberg, whose Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning, published in 1994, skewered, barbecued, and devoured the strategic planning process quite mightily. This newer book does so in a far more entertaining manner. It is a collection of short articles and excerpts craftily assembled for one purpose only: to make one think. I recommend reading it, and here’s why.

Newspaper Industry Woes Not Being Cured by Online Revenues

Published October 12, 2009

Twenty-five Years

Published October 7, 2009

I Said the Bottom Would be Bumpy

Published October 5, 2009

Friday's unemployment report was very discouraging, but news reports weren't discouraging enough. That doesn't mean there isn't good news: recent manufacturing data have some signs of encouragement. The most encouraging thing would be the acknowledgment that businesspeople taking risks is what will ultimately grow the economy, and nothing else. Chaos is good... especially if there are 30 days of it.

Percentage of Printers That Promote Themselves as Marketing Services, Communications Graphics or Media Management Businesses

Published October 5, 2009

Thoughts on Endurance, Mergers, and Shows, Oh My!

Published September 29, 2009

What's Up with the Economy?

Published September 28, 2009

Expectations often shape the perception of what are supposedly good data, and sometimes good data just are not what they are cracked up to be. Bad selling from memorized scripts could be handled by automatons. In some cases, that might be an improvement. Up-selling, when poorly done, is probably one of the aspects of sales that undermines confidence of buyers, especially first-time customers, making them unlikely to become second-time clients.

Effects of a 2-percentage point difference in mailing list decay rates

Published September 28, 2009

Dr. Joe Random Written Ramblings

Published September 23, 2009

The Media Matrix: Rampant Opportunities for Printers, But Not Necessarily for Print

Published September 21, 2009

The matrix, not of the movie kind, puts it all together. The New Printer has New Opportunities, but requires the insights of the entrepreneur to dive into this confusing, changing, and ultimately rewarding marketplace.

Price Changes in Paper, Commerical Printing, Computers, Cellular, ISPs

Published September 21, 2009

Public Relations Employees as a Percentage of Total Advertising Agency Employment

Published September 14, 2009

Dr. Joe Answers Xerox Opportunity Questions

Published September 10, 2009

E-Commerce as a Percentage of US Total Retail Sales and Inflation-adjusted US Commercial Printing Shipments

Published September 7, 2009

Caution = Inertia; Cautious Optimism Still Steps Forward

Published September 6, 2009

Reading Past the First Paragraph Seems to be a Rare Skill

Published September 2, 2009

Print's New Entrepreneurial Opportunities

Published August 31, 2009

Last week, I discussed how the common wisdom benefits of print as enumerated as recently as 2006 and 2007, were crumbling because of several trends: l consumer Internet volume had passed business volume in 2008

Capital Expenditures as a Percentage of Shipments by Printing Industry Segment

Published August 31, 2009

Cleaning out Dr. Joe's Inbox

Published August 25, 2009

In the Current and Emerging Era of Rampant Connectivity and Social Media, Where Do Print's Benefits Stand Now?

Published August 24, 2009

Back in 2006 I discussed the benefits of print as they stood at that time. Just think: last year, consumer Internet traffic surpassed business traffic; the iPhone was introduced in mid-2007 and the Kindle in 2008; social media did not exist for all practical purposes, and it now is 10 minutes of every hour consumers spend online. Add the downdraft of a worldwide recession, and you have listed every reason for every B2C, B2B, and all other organizations to re-cast their media plans and expectations. Here is where those some of those benefits now stand and the impact these forces have had on them; this is followed by some discussion about what this all means to our industry:

Capital Expenditures by Printing Industry Segment

Published August 24, 2009

Don't Tweak, Pre-build Instead

Published August 19, 2009

Shipments of Secondary Products & Misc. Receipts by Printing Industry

Published August 17, 2009

I Told You This Was Going to Happen

Published August 17, 2009

The news reports were so predictable. “The government's index of prices paid by consumers was unchanged in July from the previous month, but the closely watched inflation gauge recorded its largest over-the-year decline in 59 years.” That's the way CNN said it on Friday.

Why Micro-, Small, and Mid-size Businesses are Essential to Commercial Printing Success, and Why that Disrupts the Foundations of Our Business

Published August 12, 2009

Hyping a Recovery Doesn't Help Anyone, Until You Actually Have One

Published August 10, 2009

There is such a desire for good economic news that the press and others plant the good news at the top of the story and then hide the details in plain sight in paragraph 3, where they know no one will find it.

Change in Number of U.S. Commercial Printing Employees Per Establishment

Published August 10, 2009

This Bottom is Bumpy

Published August 5, 2009

Doctor, When Will I Feel Better?

Published August 3, 2009

As far as excitement goes for economy watchers, the first full week of any month is as good as it gets. That's what dull lives we economists lead.

Change in Number of U.S. Commercial Printing Employees

Published August 3, 2009

A Philosopher Once Said

Published July 30, 2009

Dr. Joe Speech at IGAEA, Eastern Kentucky University

Published July 27, 2009

It's About Time We Got Smart About Chaos

Published July 27, 2009

On August 3, Advertising Age columnist Bob Garfield's book, Chaos Scenario, will be released. The content has been previewed for a quite a while, and I cited it a few years back. Since the time of his first column about it, titled “A Look at the Marketing Industry's Coming Disaster,” much of what he projected has come to pass.

Change in Number of U.S. Commercial Printing Establishments

Published July 27, 2009