Changing the Approach

The economy is in for some rough news reporting in a few weeks, reinforcing what we already know: the first quarter was not very good. Like all economic data, they reflect history, and not what's ahead. This is an important aspect to keep in mind.

John Kenneth Galbraith, when asked why economists forecast, said, “Because we are asked.” Economics is not a forecasting science, so economic data are not always helpful. Economists can find historical parallels, but it is impossible to see everything, especially technological factors that have not yet been commercialized. As a marketing executive and as a strategic planner, the understanding that economics offers is useful, but we can't hang on every last decimal point. Remember: there are still arguments today about the Great Depression, and that was about 80 years ago. Those arguments are almost meaningless to businesspeople: we have a job to do today.

The role of the planner, the strategist, the business owner, and the entrepreneur is not to see what is in the data, but what is not in there. It is essential to see what is not plainly seen. This is where business ideas come from. This is the role of entrepreneurship.

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About Dr. Joe Webb

Dr. Joe Webb is one of the graphic arts industry's best-known consultants, forecasters, and commentators. He is the director of WhatTheyThink's Economics and Research Center.

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