At the end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012, Q&A's in webinars and private meetings often included questions about my thoughts about the upcoming election. I stated it was my expectation that the current administration would be re-elected.

For the past couple of years, there has been the bleat of "uncertainty" about the business environment. I have always felt there was none. Things were pretty clear. Laws and regulations were passed, and their contents were known and measurable. "Un-passing" laws and regulations rarely happens. Businesspeople, with plenty of advice from accountants, trade associations, Chambers of Commerce, and legal advisors, acted accordingly for their needs. Calling this "uncertainty" was certainly contrary to the decisive actions they were taking. Freezing their spending and holding headcounts were not actions based on uncertainty, but assessments of what they knew to be true about law and regulations, and upcoming government actions and unequivocally stated economic policies. What was this "uncertainty," really?

The claim of "uncertainty" was really executives expressing their dislike of the certainties and business conditions that they saw and that they were experiencing. Referring to things that are certain as being uncertain clouds decision-making and confuses staff. Decision-making in ambiguous situations with conflicting or no information is why businesses recruit experienced executives and pay them well. Stop whining. Complaining about "uncertainty" is an excuse for inaction. Perhaps enough business people actually "get it" now. Or else they will complain that they don't know what the 2016 election will be like.

These trends are still in place, and their certainty is clear:

In the next few weeks, "tax cliff" legislation will be proposed and passed. The higher capital gain rates will cause some short-term swings in the stocks and bonds markets, and some businesses will act to sell or buy based on these changes in rates (the sale of LucasFilms to Disney is a high profile example). The "fiscal cliff" may be another matter and may take more time, and Congress will do its best to side-step it and buy some more time for a "Band-Aid" until it can act more decisively in the next Congress in January. The upcoming rise in marginal tax rates has been telegraphed for a while. Bi-partisan approaches were tabled as Congressional leaders used the topic in their campaigns. Gridlock in an election season is something both sides can wholeheartedly agree on. With the elections out of the way, there will probably be about 18 months of somewhat cooperative legislative actions before both sides agree to use claims of gridlock again for the next election cycle in 2014.

The big winners in the tax negotiations will be the CPAs, tax attorneys, estate lawyers, and insurance companies that will help figure it out and diminish their effects on a case-by case basis. As far as the "fiscal cliff" goes, little of significance will be done before the end of this calendar year, and the real changes to government spending will be targeted for the budget that starts on October 1.

An aspect of the tax cliff that gets a lot of attention is higher tax rates on dividends. The rate will change from 15% to the marginal tax rate of the taxpayer. This is often portrayed as an economic disaster. So much of the value of dividend-paying stocks are held in tax-sheltered entities, from IRAs to pension funds that it will not result in the disaster that is often proclaimed. Where it is an issue, bonds are likely to be used to get funds to company investors instead. I believe that this is one of the reasons that corporate issuance of new bonds has been rising, in addition to healthy companies taking advantage of current low rates. Interest on debt is deducted from profits, and reduces the amount of taxable corporate income. Dividends are paid after corporate taxes are paid. Which arrangement is more profitable to the recipient depends on the situation, but many small businesses have found that paying dividends, which are exempt from Social Security and Medicare taxes, has been a way to maximize their after-tax income. Unraveling all of the issues is not easy, and the prospect that Congress can create unintended consequences is pretty high. Look for many companies to issue special dividends before the end of the year.

This slide I've been using in presentations these last six months or so summarizes the general efficiency/expansion funk that the economy is in. These periods tend to last 15 to 20 years, it seems, so we probably have another ten ahead of us; this is, of course, a general theme. There are always breakthrough companies and breakthrough products that refuse to be deterred, using even these economic conditions as a springboard. As I have often said, when times are great, everyone thinks they're a genius; when times are bad, you actually have to be one.

Digital media's strong forward march continues, and that is more important to the printing industry than anything related to the minutia of macroeconomics. Digital media are favored by regulators and lawmakers as a byproduct of cost-containment and communications upgrading of public institutions in education, health care, and other organizations. Everyone wants to look cool and hip as they fund more and more of those Internet tubes.

(My discussion about tax rates and related matters can be seen in a column from May).

Don't Be an ROI Victim

During a workshop a few weeks ago, I was discussing ROI in communications, indicating that not everyone calculates it the same way. The question came up about how a printer can actually calculate ROI for his work, and whether or not it's actually his place to do so.

If you know how the client is determining ROI, then you can adjust your interactions and product offerings accordingly. If you don't know how the client is determining ROI, then you have no idea how your performance is being judged.

That ROI may be based solely on qualitative performance. In some applications, such as direct mail, the client has objectives that are fairly standard in the industry, and are quantitative.

So if you know the ROI expectation, you know how you will be judged. If you don't ask, you'll be judged on ROI anyway. You might as well know.