I had first started working with TrendWatch (later TrendWatch Graphic Arts, even later The Industry Measure, and now just late) back in 1999, even before its acquisition by That Which Shall Remain Nameless, and one of the first projects I had worked on was a 2000 forecast of the graphic arts industry. Through the many incarnations of the business, I had always prepared a yearly printing forecast (and later a yearly creative forecast), often tied in with the annual Graph Expo TrendWatch breakfasts I had started presenting circa 2003.

I am happy that I was afforded the opportunity to work with Dr. Joe to prepare our WhatTheyThink Printing and Creative Forecast 2009, now available from the WhatTheyThink eStore.

Coming on the heels of Dr. Joe’s report and forthcoming book Renewing the Printing Industry, the 2009 forecast report is a lot more upbeat than you would expect, particularly given the dismal economic climate (funny how no one has ever made the suggestion that the government should bail out the printing industry; surely the Print Council could give Hank a call?). Anyway, as we have invariably been saying (even back in the original 2000 forecast), the printing industry’s problems have always been disconnected from the general economy (the Economics and Research Center has myriad versions of the chart that shows that printing industry shipments and GDP went their separate ways some years ago). While it’s true that there is a “trickle down” effect in sluggish and recessionary times; consumers cut spending, businesses see sales go down so they cut spending, and marketing and advertising are often the first things to go. This eventually means fewer ad pages and other marketing materials which means less print. (It goes without saying that if the any or all of the Big Three automakers go down, the ripples will not only permeate the entire auto industry supply chain, but also the voluminous ad and marketing industry dependent on automakers’ spending. Ad Age, BtoB, and other trade pubs were bracing for the worst even before the auto industry’s troubles took center stage, but if the attitudes at the ad:tech show a couple of weeks were any indication, optimism among media buyers still abounds.

So armed with that background, how can our forecast be even remotely considered optimistic? A passage was hoisted from one of Dr. Joe’s blog posts:

it is important to remember that print has defied macroeconomic trends many times. In the 1980s, print grew faster than GDP. In the slow and stagflationary late 1970s, it also performed well. There was a major shift in technology in the late 1970s as we moved to phototypesetting, digital color separations, and color page make-up systems. This spurred investments in presses as the relative cost of process color prepress dropped considerably. This defied the high inflation, high interest rates, and high unemployment of the times.

Even in the late 1990s, we defied the economy—in the other direction (oops). GDP was relatively strong, unemployment was low, but the printing industry already started to shed workers. The commercial printing industry started to decline well before the short recessionary period early this decade.

...

Print businesses would be better off if they ignored economic news and paid more attention to economic actions that they can take to make their clients successful. Economic conditions are to be navigated and used, not feared.

Oh, sure, that’s easy to say, but easy to do? Well, if you’ve read Renewing the Printing Industry, you already know the answer...

At any rate, back to the forecast. In a nutshell, WhatTheyThink’s Print and Creative Forecast 2009 provides a look back at 2008 and identifies the major trends and forces that will impact print providers as well as print buyers in the next 12 months—and beyond. The report offers a variety of industry demographics, including

• number of commercial printing establishments


• value of printing shipments (historical, current, and five-year projection)


• capital expenditures


• printing industry profits

We also include snapshots and demographics of the print-buying markets—graphic design firms, ad agencies, and publishing companies, as well as the results of a September 2008 WhatTheyThink survey of commercial printers and print buyers that asked about current and anticipated business conditions, top challenges, changes in media use on the part of creative firms, and actions the printing industry plans to take to counter the prevailing economic slowdown. Some snippets:

• 10% of commercial printers said that their revenues for 2008 will increase 10% or more compared to revenues for 2007, and 17% expect revenues in 2009 to increase 10% compared to 2008;


• 24% of graphic design firms said that business conditions in 2008 were better than those in 2007, and 55% expect business conditions in 2009 to be better than those in 2008;


• the top three issues that commercial printers felt they would have to contend with in the next 12 months were “improving profitability,” “retaining and expanding current revenues,” and “general economic conditions.”


• just about all (99%) ad agencies surveyed said that “printed materials (traditional)” was the top media channel they worked on with clients in the past six months, and 40% expected their use of “printed materials” to grow by more than 10% in the next 12 months;


• 42% of commercial printers said they plan to “add new products and services” to deal with the slower economy.

In addition to data, we also provide a qualitative look at current and emerging trends in advertising, marketing, and media use and consumption, and how they will affect all aspects of graphic communications. What is the outlook for 1:1 printing? Will 2009 be the year that Amazon kindles even more mainstream interest in e-books? What is likely to happen with mobile media and marketing? And what about environmentally sustainable printing?

More information about WhatTheyThink’s Print and Creative Forecast 2009 can be found at the WhatTheyThink eStore.