If postal rates increase, mail volume is supposed to go down which means print volume goes down. Right? Not really says Dr. Joe Webb in his column today at WhatTheyThink.com.

"For years we have been hearing that postal rate changes disturb the pattern of shipments of the industry. Mailers increase their volume before the increase and decrease it afterwards... We found that the postal effect is virtually meaningless. The chart below shows our analysis. The first column is the date of the increase. The second column compares the two months of printing shipments prior to the increase with the two months after. The third column compares the shipments of those same months for the two years prior to the rate increase date.

"The results were mixed. On average, in years with a postal increase, volume increased 0.8%. Could the threat of the increase have actually spurred people to mail more or do mailings they otherwise would not have? For the January 1, 1995, June 30, 2002, and January 8, 2006, rate increases, volume went up. For the others it went down. All in all, it's a tie, three shipment increases to three shipment decreases..."

See the full column and analysis. (SUBSCRIPTION REQUIRED)