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July Summary of Leading Industry Indicators

Going into July,

Monday, July 15, 2002

Going into July, many of the key industry indicators were mixed. - The Printer Confidence Index showed a slight increase in printers saying that “demand is starting or continuing to decline” indicating sluggish demand. As for capital spending, printers say they will continue to invest at about the same rate. - Print customers’ outlook was down substantially. 31.8% of print customers expect print spending to increase over the next 6 months, down sharply from 45.3% in May. - The PIB Advertising Index showed total magazine advertising revenue for the month of June increased 6.1% from last year, closing at $1,403,155,992. - The Purchasing Managers Index stated that economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew for the fifth consecutive month in June. The overall economy grew for the eigth consecutive month. - The Print Employment Index, based on data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed yet another decline in employment for the printing segment. Total jobs in the sector for June was 1,402,000 versus 1,407,000 in May. - The Consumer Confidence Index lost ground in June after a slight rebound in May. The index dropped four points and now stands at 106.4 (1985=100), down from 110.4 in May. Printer Confidence Index: Despite a slightly more negative sentiment for current market conditions, printers continue to be optimistic about their local market and their business over the next 6 months. Printers’ outlook for their local market is to grow a modest 2.0% (up from the 1.6% 6-month outlook in May), the figure has been positive for five consecutive months. Printers have a more optimistic outlook for their own business indicating an expected increase of 4.3% over the next 6 months. This 6-month outlook is the highest level for all of 2002. The combination of a growing percentage of printers citing improving current market conditions and a positive 6-month outlook for their local market and business is encouraging for the industry. Capital spending remained stable. Print Buyer Pulse Index: The June polling indicated that 31.8% of print customers expect their print spending to increase over the next 6 months, down sharply from 45.3% in May. In fact, June was the first time since December 2001 that a lower percentage of print customers expect print spending to increase in the next six months. 13.6% of print customers in June expect print spending to decline over the next 6 months compared with only 7.4% that had this sentiment last month. PIB Advertising Index: Total magazine advertising revenue for the month of June increased 6.1% compared to June of last year, closing at $1,403,155,992, according to Publishers Information Bureau (PIB). Ad pages for June totaled 18,905, down 1.2% from last year. Year-to-date, advertising revenue closed at $7,720,275,904, a decrease of 1.6%, and ad pages were 105,830, down 9.9% over the same time period last year. Purchasing Managers Index: Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew for the fifth consecutive month in June. The overall economy grew for the eighth consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The PMI strengthened as 15 industries saw improvement in production. June's Production Index of 61.4 percent is the highest recorded since June 1999. Print Employment Index: The Department of Labor said the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged in June, at 5.9 percent. Payroll employment was little changed for the fourth month in a row, and none of the major industry groups showed any significant change. Average hourly earnings grew by 6 cents in June, following 5 months of small increases. There was another decline in employment for the printing segment. Total jobs in the sector for June was 1,402,000 versus 1,407,000 in May. Consumer Confidence Index: Consumers' assessment of current conditions was less favorable in June. Those rating conditions as "good" dipped from 21.2 percent to 20.1 percent. Consumers rating current business conditions as "bad" rose from 18.5 percent to 19.1 percent. Consumers' expectations for the next six months were also less optimistic. Those anticipating an improvement in business conditions declined from 24.9 percent to 23.6 percent. Those expecting conditions to worsen rose marginally from 6.8 percent to 7.0 percent.


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