Is it my imagination or are there too many trade shows and conferences? John Werner, publisher of Graphic Communications World (a.k.a. the "Green Sheets"), prints the most comprehensive list of Official Industry Meetings and Events available today. His publication listed over 500 trade shows and conferences in 2001 and this number has not changed significantly for 2002. Yet, the last trade show I attended was down 70% in both exhibitors and attendees. Everyone at the show blamed it on a bad economy or the residual of 9/11 events.

Do we really believe the trade show business as we know it will eventually return to prosperity? Or is the trade show model broken?

Raine believes the era of in-person World’s Fairs are over. Payoffs are skeptical when you fully load the time, travel, and marketing expenses for attendees and exhibitors. These circuits, which have been the gravy trains for trade Associations and consulting companies for decades, are headed for trouble. Ironically, this tough economy has turned the trade shows into giant job fairs. I found more people "in transition" at the last trade show than serious procurement or decision-making attendees.

We believe 2003 is the year for a major shakeout when industries, events, and trades shows either consolidate or choose a different venue to attract customers.

Business problems have grown in complexity. Productivity gains are driven by technology. And technology investments are witnessing a capital deepening into businesses today. Selecting and evaluating intellectual property solutions requires solid research, integrated processes, and trusted relationships. Casual browsing of exhibit booths, as if you were shopping at the mall for a pair of pants, seems to be out of step when searching for potential vendors with solutions.

Moreover, the abundance of vendors already sitting on customers’ doorsteps eliminates the need to travel to trade shows and conferences altogether. With the advent of web advertising, Internet product demos, and even 24x7 web casts; customers can choose when to shop for solutions. Buyers are looking for immediate solutions on their company’s timetable versus the conference calendars.

Equipment manufacturers have built magnanimous demo facilities, which customers can visit year-round instead of waiting for a trade show. Exhibitors will increasingly have trouble funding and rationalizing external trade shows versus regional demo centers. Customers are changing they way they buy equipment and services. The location of that purchase is also changing...from the exhibit floor to the customer’s office.

A New Model for Trade Shows and Conferences:

The world of work and communications has changed forever. Database management tools (e.g. CRM) and global Internet connectivity are making it cheaper and easier to target and deliver laser-focused content to the right customer at the right time. The trade shows and industry conferences of tomorrow will resemble in-person workshops or boot camps. These intimate sessions must drive profitability with less than 50 people who share a common business problem and cater to attendees who will travel less than 100 miles to the seminar location.

Attendees will expect the seminar to accelerate their company’s knowledge capital (as well as their own marketability), expand networks, discuss best practices, and ultimately inspire with explicit ideas and actions that can they can engage the next day.

Bottom line: Trade shows and industry conferences will have to find a new distribution model to deliver relevant information about new products, services, and content directly to the attendees. By 2004, expect to see 30% fewer trade shows and industry conferences in this industry. The survivors will be those that offer immediate customer ROI and rich content, while based on new profit models.