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Still Trudging Through and Trudging Some More

Today's economic conditions make economists wish they had more hands and while making the common people more frustrated in their attempts to figure it out. Oil and food are rising in price, but the economy seems better in some ways with some reports of improving employment. GDP is still rising, but some industries are still suffering. Dr. Joe explains why just staying busy is not enough and that it's what you're doing that really matters.

Monday, April 11, 2011

Join us on April 20 at 2pm Eastern US time when Dr. Webb will discuss the post-recession and post-recovery economy, the direction of printing shipments, the latest survey of commercial printers, and the print forecast for 2011, 2012, and 2017 (yes, you're reading that right, 2017!). He'll also offer the Spring reading list, and much more, including Q&A. Register now.

The economic news makes Harry Truman's reason for desiring one-handed economists quite evident. On one hand, the unemployment rate is down and weekly jobless claims are shrinking. On the other hand, so many people have left the work force that the labor participation rate is at a 25-year low which may mean there's no one left to lay off. On one hand, Japan's financial markets withstood the earthquakes and tsunami better than initially expected, but on the other hand, commodity prices, especially oil, seem to keep going up because natural disasters and political instability create an anticipation of shortages. Enough with the hands already!

Earlier this month, the Institute for Supply Management issued its manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices. The manufacturing index declined only slightly from its very bullish levels, indicating that this sector will continue its growth and seems unlikely for a pullback any time soon. The inflation indicators for manufacturing materials are at a value of 85 and still rising (50 is considered as neutral in the ISM reports). This is the highest level since July 2008. The non-manufacturing sector is not growing as rapidly, but continues to be at encouraging levels. The sector's inflation problems eased a little, but are still high. In both sectors, employment trends are up but look to be slowing.


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About Dr. Joe Webb

Dr. Joe Webb is one of the graphic arts industry's best-known consultants, forecasters, and commentators. He is the director of WhatTheyThink's Economics and Research Center.

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