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Same Old, Same Old is Getting Tiresome

Dr. Joe starts his eighth year with WhatTheyThink, and he's less Dr. Doom-ish. There are some signs, though not confirmed, that the industry may have finally finished riding a steep and traumatic downdraft and found a steadier level with a more gradual and predictable outcome. November shipments were down at the lowest rate of any month in 2009, and there were only 100 fewer print workers in December than there were in November. The national economy still has its problems, employment is actually worse than most realize, and incomes are still under pressure. The Bureau of Labor Statistics forecast print employment for 2018, and their forecast is, unfortunately, already fulfilled.

Monday, January 18, 2010

Just When You Thought It Was Safe, This Column is Back for Another Year

It's hard to believe, but this starts our eighth year in the swirling electrons of WhatTheyThink. Back in 2003, when I agreed to do this for just one year and no more, the industry was reeling from competition from new media, a retrograde economic environment, disruptive shifts in print production technology, and an uncertain political arena. My how things have changed... not!

Same Old, Same Old is Getting Tiresome


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About Dr. Joe Webb

Dr. Joe Webb is one of the graphic arts industry's best-known consultants, forecasters, and commentators. He is the director of WhatTheyThink's Economics and Research Center.

Recent Articles from Dr. Joe Webb

Big Printers' Writedowns and Interest Payments Are a Big Drag on Printing Industry Profits

Big Printers' Writedowns and Interest Payments Are a Big Drag on Printing Industry Profits

Writedowns in the first quarter of 2018 for commercial printers with $25 million or more in assets were $157 million, or 1.9% of sales. The assets may be written down, but the borrowing that was created to finance them remains. Interest expense was 4.8% of sales. For the quarter, losses were -1.47% of sales. That rate of loss made average profits before taxes for the industry a mediocre 3% of sales—which means that printers with less than $25 million in assets must have done well. Read More

The Final Column: The Security Guard Will Take Your Badge and Escort You to the Lobby

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Full-Time Employment, Sets New Record, Up +904,000, But Does It Really Feel that Good?

Full-Time Employment, Sets New Record, Up +904,000, But Does It Really Feel that Good?

The May employment report was regarded as good, but when you dig past the top-level numbers, it was better than it looked. However, while the 3.8% unemployment rate looks good on the surface, it really can’t be compared to when it was last attained nearly 20 years ago. So many workers left the workforce that this figure implies a tighter labor than it really is. We will really know we have a strong economy when the active labor force starts increasing. Read More

Good News Could Be a Full-Time Job, but for Most Economists It’s Only Part-Time

Some people say that the news is always bad, and they wish someone would report good news now and then. There is good news but no one seems to report it. You’d think that would be a full time job for someone. The economy has set a record for full time employment, and all we hear are crickets. The economy has been doing better lately in some key measures of employment, but the Fed is scaring markets by preparing to raise rates. TINA, meet TAMA, the result of the Fed’s actions; don’t worry, we’ll explain it. The statisticians at the Commerce Department revised printing shipments data. Revising data seems to be a full time job in the Beltway. Dr. Joe clarifies it all for one nearly last time. Read More

Consumer Durable Goods Orders Moving at Almost 2X GDP Rate

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Durable goods orders for consumers (less transportation) are growing at a rate almost two times faster than Real GDP. This data series remains -14% below where it was at the start of the recession in December 2017, and is a critical one to monitor for indications of an improved economy. Read More

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Wednesday, June 03, 2026