Frank J. Romano Direct mail is now at above average growth, but magazines, newspapers, and Yellow Page directories are seeing erratic growth. All have competition from the Internet. June 8, 2005 -- Robert Coen, the senior vice president and director for forecasting at Universal McCann, made slight adjustments to his final tally of 2004's media expenditures. The final U.S. ad spending in all media totaled $263.766 billion in 2004--up 7.4 percent from $245.477 billion in 2003. In December 2004, Coen estimated that 2004 spending would be up 7.4 percent to $263,699 billion. Spending growth by national advertisers grew by 9.6 percent. Previously, he predicted that national marketers would spend 8.9 percent more than in 2003, with a total of $165.9 billion. The final number is $167 billion. Advertising spending by smaller local marketers increased at only 4.0 percent. "Much of the boom in ad spending during the last years of the twentieth century was due to the Internet and overly enthusiastic high technology expectations," Coen said. "Similar stimulations are not likely to appear to fuel excessive advertising growth in the near future. Nevertheless, with continued economic growth and spreading business and consumer confidence, there are more reasons to be optimistic than pessimistic about the near term outlook for the advertising industry." Print will prevail when we realize that it is not "either/or"; it is "either/and." What these numbers really show is that print media is growing more slowly than so-called new media. Even broadcast media are starting to see the "Internet effect." When a new medium enters the advertising and marketing mix, it usurps some of the existing spending. Marketing budgets do not expand to encompass new media. Direct mail is now at above average growth, but magazines, newspapers, and Yellow Page directories are seeing erratic growth. All have competition from the Internet. 2004 BUDGETS OF NATIONAL ADVERTISERS Percent Change 2004/Projections Over 2003 $ (000,000) Four TV Networks + 9.5% $16,458 Spot TV + 10.0 10,943 Cable TV + 12.0 15,628 Syndication TV + 15.0 3,949 Radio + 2.0 4,427 Magazines + 6.0 12,121 Newspapers + 5.5 7,762 Consumer Media Sub-Total + 8.8 $71,288 Direct Mail + 8.0 $52,240 Yellow Pages + 1.0 2,135 Internet + 25.0 7,062 Other National Media + 7.8 33,269 TOTAL NATIONAL + 8.9% $165,994 The growth of print for advertising will come about not because it wins the war with new and other media. It will come because it wins the peace--it finds methods where it works with other media. Print will prevail when we realize that it is not "either/or"; it is "either/and."