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August Summary of Leading Indicators

Going into August,

Wednesday, August 14, 2002

Going into August, here is your monthly summary of key industry indicators. - The Printer Confidence Index - for the first time since January 2002, more than half of the print providers indicated their local market conditions are starting or continuing to decline. - Print customers’ outlook continued to decline in July, but only modestly after being down substantially in June. - The PIB Advertising Index showed total magazine advertising revenue for the month of July increased 8.6% compared to July of last year, closing at $1,129,948,932. - The Purchasing Managers Index stated that economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew for the sixth consecutive month in July. The overall economy grew for the ninth consecutive month. - The Print Employment Index, based on data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed a rise in employment for the printing segment. Total jobs in the sector for July was 1,407,000 versus 1,402,000 in June. - The Consumer Confidence Index which declined in June -- tumbled further in July. The Index now stands at 97.1 (1985=100), down sharply from 106.3 last month. Printer Confidence Index: In July, for the first time since January 2002, more than half of the print providers (52.8%) indicated their local market conditions are starting or continuing to decline. The research suggests that the steady improvement throughout the spring in overall market sentiment has given way to negative conditions for the summer. Readers should note there has been a steady increase in negative market sentiment since April when only 35.2% of print providers cited declining market conditions. Print Buyer Pulse Index: Print customers’ outlook continued to decline in July, but only modestly. 29.7% of print customers expect print spending to increase over the next 6 months, the lowest percentage expecting an increase since January of this year. There was also a slight increase in the percentage of print customers expecting print spending to decline over the next 6 months, the highest level in the last four months. PIB Advertising Index: Total magazine advertising revenue for the month of July increased 8.6% compared to July of last year, closing at $1,129,948,932, according to Publishers Information Bureau (PIB). Ad pages for July totaled 15,125, up 0.5 % from last year. Year-to-date, advertising revenue closed at $8,832,741,748, a decrease of 0.3%, and ad pages were 120,607, down 8.6% over the same time period last year. Purchasing Managers Index: Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew for the sixth consecutive month in July. The overall economy grew for the ninth consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. July was only slightly better than June. The PMI declined, but still indicated growth as 12 industries reported improvement in July. The decline in the PMI was primarily driven by a weak showing in July's new orders, which may be due to a pause in inventory replenishment. Print Employment Index: Both the unemployment rate, 5.9 percent, and total nonfarm payroll employment, 130.8 million, were unchanged in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. A gain in payroll employment in services was partially offset by a decline in construction. Job losses continued to moderate in manufacturing, but the factory workweek fell. There was a rise in employment for the printing segment. Total jobs in the sector for July was 1,407,000 versus 1,402,000 in June. Consumer Confidence Index: Consumers' expectations for the next six months have soured. Those expecting business conditions to deteriorate increased from 7.1 percent to 9.2 percent. Those anticipating an improvement in the months ahead fell from 23.7 percent to 20.9 percent. Consumer confidence is now at its lowest level since February of this year. And while the current reading is not alarming by historical standards, a continued slide could very well jeopardize the economic recovery.


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