Discussion

By Dr Joe Webb on May 14, 2008

Their last recommendation is so incredibly simplistic. The idea is always floated, but does it work? No. Awareness is not purchase or preference.

I wrote about it in 2005 when I analyzed Sappi's campaign which was similar.

This is the link to the original column: http://members.whattheythink.com/drjoewebb/drjoe101.cfm#3

Here are the two key paragraphs:

[T]hese kinds of campaigns have not been very successful. The government-subsidized “Got Milk?” program hasn’t helped milk products do any better: per capita consumption is less than a third of what it was in 1930. Since 1993, consumption of milk products has increased less than 10%, or about the amount that the U.S. population has increased, and that may be more the result of interest in reduced carbohydrate diets that look on milk and dairy products as essential than it is of an advertising campaign. Yet this basically ineffective campaign has very high awareness levels; some claim that 90% of Americans have heard of the program. But remember that awareness does not always translate into an intent to buy. Farmers pay a “tax” to support this program, which ultimately raises the price of milk. Milk, of course, has been a beneficiary of price supports and price controls, which led to the growth of lower-priced competition from other drink products (many of which are less healthy), an unintended consequence that made the milk industry lax in terms of implementing any competitive response or productivity improvements.

Another often-cited awareness campaign is “Say it with flowers.” Since 1992, the number of florists has decreased by 17%. The most important floral retailer is 1-800-FLOWERS, and that’s because of its wide range of non-floral products and its strong Internet presence, doing well while the rest of the industry has faltered with severe competition from other retailers such as supermarkets with floral departments.

###

By Brian Regan on May 14, 2008

Joe,

Respectfully, those campaigns you mention are told in a one way dialog. The approach that is being taken hits on more than one front and a few are community based and the development of awareness through not just advertising, but interaction, not telling, but walking with, live interactions and more vivid exposure.

Business will always demand things cheaper, faster and more efficient and ensuring we have the talent to handle the needed skill levels (Changing as they are) is an important battle to continue with.

Semper also staffs the Interactive Media industry and part of that is Video Game developers. An interesting thing happens in that market, programmers and engineers that are aggressively recruited for just about any industry work for the game industry for less wages than they can earn in areas such as finance. The most common answer when ask "I want to do it.. I have a passion for doing it."

I find that a fascinating fact. It creeps into many discussions I have where ever I go. What drives that passion? does our industry have that potential? How is it created? What age does it start to develop? Learning those answers and applying thought and then action from our industry creates opportunity.

In regards to your comment directly, those bullet points came from the start of this process, it has moved along quite far in many respects.

If you would like to learn more, please feel free to call me or reach out to the Summit group in general.

By John Berthelsen on May 14, 2008

Joe-
First, please don't focus on a snapshot summary of ideas that were presented at the summit. This is not the focus of where the committee and group are going. Please wait to read the full Report Out of the group - which will be released very shortly. This is the real meat of what is being accomplished.
Second, the document that was just released is a compendium of information concerning our industry. While perhaps not perfect, it brings together information that can be presented to educators, administrators, parents and any other interested parties to give a clear and concise picture of the graphic communication field.
Many people are working hard to be a positive and progressive force for change in finally doing something in our fragmented industry. We appreciate every contribution to that effort.

By Adam Dewitz on May 14, 2008

Brian's comment “those bullet points came from the start of this process, it has moved along quite far in many respects.” Bring a up a good point that I also think needs to be addressed.

I had to use points from “the start of the process” because I could not find a Website that is being used to coordinate this effort and provide a central point for the community to come together and share ideas, case studies and other relevant information.

This sort of community effort has "wiki" written all over it. And with the ease of deploying a wiki, it's it would be easy to implement. I would be happy to lend my expertise to get this going and provide a home for it on the PrintWiki server.

By Dr Joe Webb on May 15, 2008

As I have now read the document completely a few times, it is very clear that even the data that support its contentions do not provide a reliable picture of what is happening in the industry. It is extremely disappointing that the hard facts of the business are glossed over, ignored, or combined with other data to minimize the extent of the trends.

This compromises the credibility of the document, and potentially the effort. I have several examples.

We do not need 60,000 workers a year. The industry sheds 1,000 businesses per year (for about 15 years!) and where employment is declining. If we needed this number of workers, real (inflation-adjusted) wages would be rising to attract them. Wages, however, are on a long-term decline. The data sources do not adjust wages for inflation. If you go back just in recent history wages were significantly higher in the 1980s and have been on a rather steady decline since the introduction of desktop publishing, with the steeper declines in the mid-1990s. All one has to do is look at the data from the Census of Manufactures and Economic Census and adjust them with the CPI and the trends become evident. The primary reason for the decline is most likely the loss of prepress jobs. For $1000, Adobe Photoshop gives you the ability to do the tasks of highly paid strippers, retouchers, etchers, and numerous other personnel.

The 60,000 figure may include double and triple and even more multiple counting. We've all heard the phrase that this is an "incestuous industry" where workers move from one company to another. If one company has an open job, it recruits from another. Then that company has an open job, and it recruits from a third company. And then that third one has a job opening, and recruits from a fourth one, etc. Four job openings, created by the movement of one person.

The most recent peak in printing employment (NAICS 323) was in July 1998 when it was just under 830,000. In last month's report it was 614,000. Printing employment declined by 2% last year, and data for this year so far may put that rate at 3% for 2008.

There are not a million workers in the commercial printing industry. When you include vendors, dealers, and others, perhaps you can work it up that high. And of course, you can always add inplant or packaging to make the industry seem larger and more stable. While that may seem more complete or comprehensive, it obscures the conditions that commercial printing businesses are enduring.

If the number of workers AND real wages are declining at the same time, just basic economics tells you that the demand for workers is decreasing and there is an adequate supply of them. If there wasn't enough supply, wages would be rising.

Since 2000, on a CPI-adjusted basis, the commercial printing industry is $20 billion smaller. Yet these are virtually the same recommendations I have been hearing about our situation for about two decades, except for the part about social networking.

The biggest magnet for workers is successful and growing printing companies. There is nothing that can replace that in terms of employment opportunities, rising wages, and rewarding careers. No matter what government or educational institutions do, the actions of entrepreneurs and deployment of their very own capital is required first and foremost.

Previous articles (2006) about all of these topics are at:
http://members.whattheythink.com/home/drjoe161.cfm
http://members.whattheythink.com/home/drjoe162.cfm
http://members.whattheythink.com/home/drjoe163.cfm

I have sometimes heard concern that graphic communications education is focused too much on desktop publishing issues and graphic design. This is where the jobs are. Employment of these professionals is rising in ad agencies, graphic design firms, and most importantly in freelance self-employment. Graphic arts programs must prepare their students for professional lives in self-employment because imaging technology and communications are creating opportunities for project-focused specialists around the world.

It is quite an eye-opener to attend a show like SIGGRAPH, dominated by computer graphics used in entertainment and broadcast, and see companies using their show booths not to exhibit their wares but to aggressively recruit and interview potential workers.

For a look at where current trends in employment and other factors may lead, the 2007 GraphExpo presentation might be helpful.
http://members.whattheythink.com/evt/07/ge07/ge07joe.cfm

This is still an dynamic and fascinating business, and the continuing restructuring of it offers significant opportunities for young people. The turmoil of creative destruction is painful when it's more on the destruction side, but it's clear to me that there are exciting organizations bucking the trend. In order to buck the trend, a more realistic picture of the industry and its state is essential. The document released does not do that.

By Michael Josefowicz on May 15, 2008

Adam-
I think the idea of a PrintWiki is a good one.
If it does get off the ground, please get in touch.

Brian-
You say " programmers and engineers that are aggressively recruited for just about any industry work for the game industry for less wages than they can earn in areas such as finance. The most common answer when ask “I want to do it.. I have a passion for doing it.

. . . What drives that passion? does our industry have that potential?"

I believe that our industry does have that potential. But not as long as it is only framed in the service of advertising and selling stuff.

Given that Print has a 500 year history of spreading knowledge, there should be a way to get this right.

By Victor Curran on May 15, 2008

I wrote to Frank Romano about this same issue last year. I told him printing in the US is perceived as a manufacturing industry, blue-collar work. Kids don't want to spend six figures going to college so they can work in a factory.
The plant managers and foremen in US printing plants today are gray-haired, English-speaking white guys. The young kids who will take their places are from Brazil, Mexico, Cambodia, Vietnam.
The current crop of bosses were immigrants from Ireland, Italy, etc., a couple of generations ago. It's natural that a new generation of immigrants should take their place. But we're not going to find them on Facebook or MySpace, or on college campuses, or with a slick ad campaign. If we want to recruit the printing leaders of the 21st century, the first step is to realize that they aren't going to look like the man (or woman) in the mirror.
The second is to consider the possibility that while few young people will choose college first, then printing, some may choose printing first, then college. Seek out smart, ambitious young people already working in printing shops and make scholarships available for them to learn business skills to complement their technical skills.

By Brian Regan on May 15, 2008

Good stuff Victor. In fact I would like to speak with you more about it. There is a method to the madness that is sometimes not obvious to those watching pieces of it. However, lets talk and perhaps you can help out in this area.

Brian Regan
[email protected]


Michael,

I agree there is as well. The more industry people that collaborate, get involved, share ideas and concepts the more engaged, the more positive and the more likely success.

Like with Victor, please feel free to reach out to me or others in the group.

By Victor Curran on May 16, 2008

Brian, have you read Andrew Tribute's May 15 post (http://printceoblog.com/2008/05/romano-and-tribute-in-zagreb) on PrintCEOBlog? He gives another perspective on the idea that the next generation of US printing industry leaders may come from outside the US. You and I were corresponding about young immigrants who could work and study their way from the shop floor to the front office. Tribute writes that in Croatia, university students are eager to bring innovation to the printing industry. Here's what he says: "We are speaking . . . to a group of around 150 students studying printing and design applications at the university here in Zagreb. . . . about the status of the industry and what to expect at drupa. Frank Romano is . . . talking about the future of the industry for the students that are studying here to enter the market. . . . [S]ome really impressive research projects . . . are in progress at the university here. . . . The message from this meeting is that the students in Croatia are showing that the future entrants to our market are likely to have a key impact in the development of the market. Students everywhere are the key to the future and I look forward to hearing more of developments coming out of the universities and colleges that concentrate on the print, media and creative markets."
Surely some of the kids Tribute met in Zagreb will find their way to the US.

By Dr Joe Webb on May 16, 2008

Speaking of new media and the strength of print advertising, this is worth downloading:
http://www.iab.net/media/file/IAB_PwC_2007_full_year.pdf

Note this comment:
“Despite the current state of economic uncertainty, 2007 was another record year, and [this was] the 13th consecutive record quarter,” said David Silverman, partner, assurance, at PricewaterhouseCoopers, in a statement. “Interactive advertising is not just the future; it is the here and now, as it represents a meaningful and growing component of U.S. advertising and marketing spend.”

What does that mean? It means it's still growing at a rate where it's not subject to quarterly seasonality, like holiday shopping season. It's not close to maturity yet... it's still growing rapidly.

And as far as comparing it to print, remember that print has paper and sometimes postal costs in it, which e-commerce marketing does not, so the comparisons are not as valid other than on the surface. The lower cost and somewhat similar strategic effectiveness is a real attraction.

The release was from the Interactive Advertising Bureau... not a single printing company is a member. The principal trade show for this audience is ad:tech. I have never seen a printer on a panel and less than three or four printer names as exhibitors and they were startups. This has been a persistent problem.

By Brian Regan on May 16, 2008

Joe,

Could you talk more about this comment of yours?

"This is still an dynamic and fascinating business, and the continuing restructuring of it offers significant opportunities for young people."

By Brian Regan on May 17, 2008

Victor,

As we discussed in our emails and in your post, the current minority populations are an important resource that we should/could be better working with.

There is a lot of positive movement happening right now and the more people that step in and join as active participants the better the outcome.

I encourage people to support what's happening.

By Jimmy DeBlasio on May 19, 2008

Trying to be cool is a very uncool thing to do.

As a member of Generation Y I think that this task force is extremely disconnected to the audience that they are preaching to. Were any students invited to this task force? Also, was it ever considered to place kids within the teams?

I would be interested in joining in on these talks.

Jimmy DeBlasio
[email protected]

By Brian Regan on May 21, 2008

Sent you an email Jimmy