Five of the six indicators were up since last month. The NASDAQ is taking a -3% breather from a +26% change since this time last year, but the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indicators rebounded since last month, with all four having positive changes. Compared to last year, however, these indicators as a whole are up +2.7%, not much more than the overall economy. First quarter proprietors’ income, a measure of small business activity, was revised up slightly, at +1.5%. Take out 2% for inflation, and small business is hanging in there and is sluggish.

In a prior column I wrote about how “new normal” perceptions may be distorting views of economic importance. This may be occurring in the ISM indicators. The recession began in December 2007, and we’re still having a recovery that is very slow, well below historical average GDP growth, with many indicators still not achieving pre-recession levels. In those 10 years, the turnover in management in organizations can be great, with the managers that take the place of the ones who leave or retire may be more accepting of status quo conditions and consider them typical. That means there frame of reference of a surge in orders may be at a level than that managers of ten years ago might consider as small. As I explained in that earlier column, qualitative measures like confidence, were exceeding quantitative measures, like inflation adjusted sales levels or unit sales, making confidence indicators less valid in assessing current conditions and forecasts. Look for hard data when making your assessments.

Real GDP for the first quarter was revised up as the Bureau of Economic Analysis to +1.4%. The first time it was reported it was only +0.7%, then revised to +1.2%, and is now +1.4% in this final report. Consumer expenditures and exports were better than originally reported, and business investment was smaller than in prior estimates.