Economic Roundup, More Economic Notes, Print's ROI, and Ordering Out for Chinese

Printing ShipmentsGood News?

The Commerce Department released shipments data on Wednesday, and it was a mixed report for the printing industry. We may have hit bottom, and it is kind of bumpy down there, but things are getting better. If we hold the profitability level we had in the third quarter, that would mean $700 million in industry profits. But I suspect that it may end up in the $850 million to $900 million range.

We won't know for sure until April when profitability data are released, but recent financial reports from some of the major printers imply that things are getting better. It's one of those situations where the industry has gotten smaller, weak companies have exited in one way or another, the rest have downsized or reorganized their operations to adjust to market realities, and the bottom lines are improving. Demand is still weak, but profits are improving. If demand picks up in a meaningful way (we can hope, can't we?), bottom-line improvement will be dramatic because break-even points are now lower.

Continue reading your article
with a WhatTheyThink membership.

WhatTheyThink Annual Membership

Less than $4/week.

Get unlimited access to in-depth commentary and analysis covering the latest trends, emerging technologies, operational strategies, and key events across every segment of today's printing industry.

Stay informed. Stay competitive. Stay ahead.

WhatTheyThink Day Pass

$5 for 24 hours

Unlimited access to all of WhatTheyThink. Get your Day Pass

Already a member?

About Dr. Joe Webb

Dr. Joe Webb is one of the graphic arts industry's best-known consultants, forecasters, and commentators. He is the director of WhatTheyThink's Economics and Research Center.

10 Things PSPs Should Consider Before Adopting Robotics: What You Need to Know to Begin the Journey

Why Highly Targeted Communications Make Digital Print Essential to Modern Marketing

Wide Format in 2026: How Technology Is Reshaping Competitive Advantage

Labels & Packaging in 2026: Turning Insight into Direction

Print, Digital, and Everything in Between

View Keypoint Intelligence Reports

Big Printers' Writedowns and Interest Payments Are a Big Drag on Printing Industry Profits

Writedowns in the first quarter of 2018 for commercial printers with $25 million or more in assets were $157 million, or 1.9% of sales. The assets may be written down, but the borrowing that was created to finance them remains. Interest expense was 4.8% of sales. For the quarter, losses were -1.47% of sales. That rate of loss made average profits before taxes for the industry a mediocre 3% of sales—which means that printers with less than $25 million in assets must have done well. Read More

The Final Column: The Security Guard Will Take Your Badge and Escort You to the Lobby

Back in 2002, Dr. Joe agreed to do a regular column for WhatTheyThink for “only one year and no more”...for 15 years. This farewell column explains how it started, behind-the-scenes intrigue, the problems, and why it turned out the way it did. And then…he explains the exciting adventures ahead. Read More

Full-Time Employment, Sets New Record, Up +904,000, But Does It Really Feel that Good?

The May employment report was regarded as good, but when you dig past the top-level numbers, it was better than it looked. However, while the 3.8% unemployment rate looks good on the surface, it really can’t be compared to when it was last attained nearly 20 years ago. So many workers left the workforce that this figure implies a tighter labor than it really is. We will really know we have a strong economy when the active labor force starts increasing. Read More

Good News Could Be a Full-Time Job, but for Most Economists It’s Only Part-Time

Some people say that the news is always bad, and they wish someone would report good news now and then. There is good news but no one seems to report it. You’d think that would be a full time job for someone. The economy has set a record for full time employment, and all we hear are crickets. The economy has been doing better lately in some key measures of employment, but the Fed is scaring markets by preparing to raise rates. TINA, meet TAMA, the result of the Fed’s actions; don’t worry, we’ll explain it. The statisticians at the Commerce Department revised printing shipments data. Revising data seems to be a full time job in the Beltway. Dr. Joe clarifies it all for one nearly last time. Read More