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Caution: Risks of Economic Disappointment are Rising

Just as the economy seems to be improving, Dr. Joe is back with his Dr. Doom persona. He thinks it's justified based on the latest inflation and wage data, and makes the case accordingly. The pace of technological change seems to be independent of the economic situation, and while Dr. Joe suggests that caution is the economic watchword, he says that the continued rapid rate of technological change should lead to urgent and direct management action in print businesses.

Monday, February 21, 2011

For months we've  been in an “L-shaped” recovery characterized by very slow growth. It took three years for GDP to reach the same level as it was when the recession started. The low point was around June 2009, and the economy was fully recovered by December 2010. Yet nothing feels fully recovered.

Last week, the latest earnings and inflation data we use in our macroeconomic indicators were released. Our table shows major economic data series in three formats: comparison to the same period a year ago, the six-month trend at an annualized rate, and the three-month trend at an annualized rate. Earnings are declining, inflation is worsening. But there's more to it than that.

GDP data were released at the end of January, and we have discussed those previously. Recoveries are generally characterized by a strong breakout to the upside, but it has been difficult for the economy to come close to its post-WW2 average of +3.4%. There are no +6% or +7% quarters in the offing.


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About Dr. Joe Webb

Dr. Joe Webb is one of the graphic arts industry's best-known consultants, forecasters, and commentators. He is the director of WhatTheyThink's Economics and Research Center.

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