The industry received some excellent news in Thursday's release of manufacturing shipments data from the Commerce Department. The political season and aggressive catalog marketing appear to have conspired to create the strongest three-month period we have seen in quite a while. November printing shipments were up a strong +$504 million, and October's shipments were revised up slightly as well (an additional +4 million). Compared to November 2005, shipments were up by 6.2%. This was seven straight months of positive prior year comparisons.

On an inflation-adjusted basis, this was the fourth consecutive month of real growth, up +$355 million, or 4.6% compared to 2005. On a longer-term basis, industry shipments are still down compared to 2004 and prior. It seems that 2005 was an exceptionally bad year in a longer term trend. While this news is very welcome, profits are still hard to come by and the pressures to consolidate are still there, as confirmed by recent consolidation activities. On the demand side, communications alternatives are still gaining in penetration and preference. Nonetheless, this shipments report was delightfully positive. Good things like this are made to be enjoyed and savored, and well we should.

For the January to November period, 2006 was up +$1 billion over 2005. Virtually all the increase for the year is in the September through November period, traditionally the best months of the year. Though the eleven-month period was down by -$1.7 billion on an inflation-adjusted basis, this traditionally strongest three months of the year were up by more than +$500 million, showing how dire the beginning of the year was. There's nothing like a turnaround. This should be viewed as a welcome pause, not a sea change. There is a lot of restructuring and realigning yet to be done.