We'll talk about this a bit more in next week's webinar, but the economic reporting most of us see and hear reflects the expectations of experts and talking head economic reporters who seem to have little historical perspective. The experts are regularly surprised by the economic data. The data are nothing to get excited about, but things are not as bad as they are being made out to be, and the economic slowdown is not being blamed on its true causes.

A good example was last week's ISM Manufacturing Index, portrayed as being negative even though it was an improvement over prior reports that were grotesque and scary. Though the report was still below 50 (at 49.6), implying contraction, it did not reflect recessionary levels, which according to the ISM would kick in at a reading of 42. A reading of 49.6 is not recessionary, especially when there has been an improvement over the preceding three months. The internals of the report were good as well, except for the inflation indicator. New orders, production and exports were up. Even imports were up, and that's a good sign in light of the fact that many materials used in the manufacturing process must be imported since they don't exist here. I read the entire report, and I actually felt better by the end. Good thing I didn't read the newspapers or watch the cable financial networks first or I may have slit my wrists unnecessarily.

The Commerce Department released growth rates for manufacturing industries. We've added GDP and CPI to the list below for reference purposes. Some of the growth, even for industries above the inflation line, is a result of their ability (and in some cases their need) to charge higher prices because of increasing input costs or tight supplies.