January printing shipments were reported to be $7.5 billion. This was +$238 million compared to January 2004, but up only +$22 million on an inflation adjusted basis. The chart below shows the three years of January shipments. On an inflation-adjusted basis, we’re down -3.3% compared to 2003. Are we treading water? This is the first true increase since the middle of last year. The beginning of 2004 was rather gruesome for the industry, I wonder if we’re still searching for a bottom. Recent casual, anecdotal reports I have received indicate that pricing is still quite ruthless, so flat dollar sales may actually mean we are shipping more physical volume. That’s not pleasant.

Last Friday’s unemployment report was mixed. The business press, which is obsessed by the payroll survey, was mesmerized with a January revision that showed 8,000 more jobs than previously reported and 262,000 new payroll jobs in February. Readers of this column know that we focus more on the household survey, which was down -97,000 jobs. The household survey covers independent workers and self-employed persons.

The unemployment rate went up to 5.4% because more people have been encouraged to look for work. That increases the size of the potential labor force (the denominator of the equation), which also helped the rate rise. It is not uncommon to see unemployment rates rise temporarily when employment prospects (as indicated in last week’s ISM reports) are improving. One thing that has confused economists was the fact that people have been exiting the workforce to stay at home with family or attend school; this latest uptick may be a sign that some of those people on their way back, looking for work. Another good sign: manufacturing overtime hours were up slightly.