WhatTheyThink

Premium Commentary & Analysis

Economic Roundup, Understanding Your Own Personality, and a Billion Here, a Billion There

Economic Round-

Friday, February 04, 2005

Gross domestic product was up by +3.1% for the fourth quarter of 2004, and up +4.4% for the year. I’m sure this will be revised up as they move from this advance report to preliminary and then final in the next two months. Business investment in equipment and software was up +13.4% for the year.

Workers are being robbed of their wage increases by the growing costs of benefits. The Employment Cost Index was up +3.7% for the year, but benefits costs were up +6.9%, and wages were up a meager +2.4%. Workers do not see benefits costs because they see the same or less health coverage, vacation time, or other benefits, and often perceive small wage increases as their employers “holding out” on them. In addition, the rising level of wages upon which Social Security taxes are paid (now $90,000) is yet another “hidden tax” because the employer “matching” also increases costs and depresses wages. In the mid-to-late 1990s, the relationship was the other way around. Benefits are real costs of employment, but they are rarely viewed that way by employees. Many feel that their employers are just “making up stories” to pay them less. Good employers make it a regular practice to reveal to their employees the total value of their pay and their benefits. For low-wage workers, benefits costs (many of which are fixed, such as a monthly per worker fee for health plans) can be a disproportionately high percentage of their pay, making this especially tragic in their ability to save and increase family wealth.

Initial Jobless claims were down by -9,000, and the four-week average dropped to 331,500, which is considered be be indicative of an improving hiring picture (more about that later). There are now 41,355 fewer initial claims compared to the same week of last year.


Continue reading your article
with a WhatTheyThink membership.

WhatTheyThink Annual Membership

Less than $4/week.

Get unlimited access to in-depth commentary and analysis covering the latest trends, emerging technologies, operational strategies, and key events across every segment of today's printing industry.

Stay informed. Stay competitive. Stay ahead.
WhatTheyThink Day Pass

$5 for 24 hours

Unlimited access to all of WhatTheyThink. Get your Day Pass

Already a member?
Sign In

About Dr. Joe Webb

Dr. Joe Webb is one of the graphic arts industry's best-known consultants, forecasters, and commentators. He is the director of WhatTheyThink's Economics and Research Center.

Recent Articles from Dr. Joe Webb

Big Printers' Writedowns and Interest Payments Are a Big Drag on Printing Industry Profits

Big Printers' Writedowns and Interest Payments Are a Big Drag on Printing Industry Profits

Writedowns in the first quarter of 2018 for commercial printers with $25 million or more in assets were $157 million, or 1.9% of sales. The assets may be written down, but the borrowing that was created to finance them remains. Interest expense was 4.8% of sales. For the quarter, losses were -1.47% of sales. That rate of loss made average profits before taxes for the industry a mediocre 3% of sales—which means that printers with less than $25 million in assets must have done well. Read More

The Final Column: The Security Guard Will Take Your Badge and Escort You to the Lobby

Back in 2002, Dr. Joe agreed to do a regular column for WhatTheyThink for “only one year and no more”...for 15 years. This farewell column explains how it started, behind-the-scenes intrigue, the problems, and why it turned out the way it did. And then…he explains the exciting adventures ahead. Read More

Full-Time Employment, Sets New Record, Up +904,000, But Does It Really Feel that Good?

Full-Time Employment, Sets New Record, Up +904,000, But Does It Really Feel that Good?

The May employment report was regarded as good, but when you dig past the top-level numbers, it was better than it looked. However, while the 3.8% unemployment rate looks good on the surface, it really can’t be compared to when it was last attained nearly 20 years ago. So many workers left the workforce that this figure implies a tighter labor than it really is. We will really know we have a strong economy when the active labor force starts increasing. Read More

Good News Could Be a Full-Time Job, but for Most Economists It’s Only Part-Time

Some people say that the news is always bad, and they wish someone would report good news now and then. There is good news but no one seems to report it. You’d think that would be a full time job for someone. The economy has set a record for full time employment, and all we hear are crickets. The economy has been doing better lately in some key measures of employment, but the Fed is scaring markets by preparing to raise rates. TINA, meet TAMA, the result of the Fed’s actions; don’t worry, we’ll explain it. The statisticians at the Commerce Department revised printing shipments data. Revising data seems to be a full time job in the Beltway. Dr. Joe clarifies it all for one nearly last time. Read More

Consumer Durable Goods Orders Moving at Almost 2X GDP Rate

Consumer Durable Goods Orders Moving at Almost 2X GDP Rate

Durable goods orders for consumers (less transportation) are growing at a rate almost two times faster than Real GDP. This data series remains -14% below where it was at the start of the recession in December 2017, and is a critical one to monitor for indications of an improved economy. Read More