Consumer expectations rose again overall, but there was still concern about current conditions, according to the Conference Board. There is growing optimism among consumers, and we hope that it starts infecting business investment intentions. The survey was taken before the tax package was passed, and we hope that the incentives for investment, especially for small business, will have a positive impact. So perhaps next month's data will reflect that with an upturn in sentiment as well. Real dollar impact is months away.

Encouraging new home sales figures were released (+1.7%), better than economists expected, which may be a better indicator of consumer confidence at this point than the Conference Board's index. No one buys a house unless they're confident in their ability to pay for it, or at least that's what they tell the banks.

While housing was positive, though, durable goods orders in April were down, -2.4%, consistent with recent data from the Institute for Supply Management a couple of weeks ago. We're probably at the bottom of the durable goods downturn, and this particular data series is prone to severe up and down swings. March's durable goods increase was revised slightly downward from +1.5% to +1.4%. I expect durable goods orders to pick up more assertively toward the end of the year. Lots of conflicting trends are playing out, but on a national basis, we're starting a turn to the upside. Look for unemployment to stay sluggish (it lags recoveries) and look for a strong holiday season, stronger than most expect. Over the next few weeks, I'll be writing about the recovery and what it means to the printing industry, and whether or not we'll even participate in it.