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Despite the Economic Muddle, Printing Shipments are Rising. What's Ahead?

The economic pundits were out in full force about the unemployment rate falling to 5%. Was it meaningful? Is this the sign of a bullish economic rebound? Then there's the 16 month rise in printing shipments. You'd think there'd be cheers from the audience that Dr. Doom is dead, and long live Dr. Boom! Instead, we hear nighttime crickets. What's behind the rise in shipments, is it real and will it last?

Sunday, November 08, 2015

The unemployment rate fell from 5.1% to 5.0% in last Friday's report, but the change was more due to rounding as the Bureau of Labor Statistics admonished in the first paragraph of its press release when they said the employment situation was “essentially unchanged.” In its full calculation the unemployment rate fell from 5.051% in September to 5.036% in October, making the change only .015 percentage points, hence the BLS statement.

The swings in the household survey data were significant since September, which makes one wonder if the swings are more due to the seasonal adjustment factors that the BLS uses than real changes in the nature of the labor force. The September report was bad: the household survey showed a -236,000 decrease in employed workers and a -350,000 decrease in the civilian workforce. The October report was good: +320,000 and +313,000 respectively.

When you combine the September and October data, the changes since August are very modest. The number of employed increased only +84,000 while the labor force declined by -37,000. That averages to just +42,000 new employment per month, well below the averages of late. The data are bouncing around, without a steady trend, and it's hard to say if they are real changes or seasonal adjustments or flaws in the system.


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About Dr. Joe Webb

Dr. Joe Webb is one of the graphic arts industry's best-known consultants, forecasters, and commentators. He is the director of WhatTheyThink's Economics and Research Center.

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