During the past three years, commercial printing companies have experienced the worst recession in the printing industry in over two decades. At the recent Print Outlook 2004 conference, industry guru Frank Romano observed that commercial printers have lost roughly 5 percent of their print volume annually for the last four years. Government economic data paints an equally bleak picture of the printing industry's recent performance. Since the first quarter of 2000, the value of aggregate printing industry shipments has fallen approximately 16 percent, according to data compiled by the Commerce Department.

The good news is that the worst appears to be over, at least for some printing firms. Most printing industry economists are now forecasting that the U.S. printing industry will actually grow in 2004. For example, Andrew D. Paparozzi, NAPL's Chief Economist, predicts that U.S. commercial printing sales will increase between 3.2 and 4.1 percent in 2004, and Ronnie H. Davis, PIA's Chief Economist, estimates that 2004 printing industry shipments will be 3 to 4 percent higher than 2003 levels. According to most industry experts, increased print sales will be fueled by continued growth of the overall U.S. economy and by higher advertising spending driven by the Olympics and the presidential election.

While printing company managers will undoubtedly welcome industry growth, they must not become overly complacent about the benefits the expected upturn will produce. Printers must restrain their optimism because whatever growth does occur in 2004 will not benefit all printing companies equally. This time, overall printing industry growth will not be the "rising tide that lifts all ships." NAPL's Andrew Paparozzi recently emphasized this point by noting that, "not all companies will benefit equally from the upturn. The companies that will benefit the most will be those that are well prepared for the structural changes redefining our product markets. Those structural changes are profound and far-reaching, ranging from the growing demand for value-added services to competition from the Internet. The printers who develop new business models to respond to those opportunities will be the ones that survive and thrive." (emphasis added)