Every year, we publish our Print Outlook report, which looks back at the previous year and then forecasts what we anticipate the next year(s) will bring. At the end of the report, we forecast the value of printing shipments out seven years. We have software that takes past shipments data and extrapolates it, with a few different methodologies that apply different weights to different inputs. We also do a little manual tweaking based on what we know about patterns in the industry (is it a Presidential election year? A drupa year? Etc.). We think we have a pretty good track record, but every once in a while, something comes along that is completely out of left field. The classic example of this is how we ended our Print Outlook 2020, which was written and published in January 2020:

2019 was a good year for the industry. It involved some pleasure, some pain, yes, and some concentrated force of will. While we’re too skeptical to start singing “Happy Days Are Here Again,” we’re not gloomy enough to chant “Swing Low, Sweet Chariot” either. 2020 is going to be a drupa year (and WhatTheyThink’s 20th anniversary!), which means lots of new technologies and lots of ways that we can help print continue to thrive and grow.

And of course we know how 2020 went and the rocky road to recovery from the pandemic over the past five years.