Having made industry predictions for quite some time on what to expect in the coming year, the last two years proved to be quite unpredictable. When we moved into 2020, nobody expected a pandemic bringing the economy to a grinding halt (although the theories of epidemics do suggest that, with a rising and increasingly mobile global population, a global pandemic was likely to happen at some point). In hindsight, 2021 seemed more predictable. The expectation was that we would get a better handle on the COVID-19 pandemic and move further towards relatively normal business conditions, although, granted, there would be a greater push for digitization and electronic channels. On the start of 2021, however, nobody did expect skyrocketing energy prices, paper shortages, global transportation problems, and increases in prices for almost any raw materials.

Among all the price increase discussions, one should keep in mind that some prices hit rock bottom in 2020, yet the increases were quite unique in recent history. Gas prices in Europe are still five times as high as the year before, even after they dropped from their peak in December (based on EU Dutch TTF spot market prices). Raw materials had hikes in 2021 as well, although the peak seems to have passed. Prices for recovered paper in Germany peaked in October 2021, but they are still double the amount paid the year before. Aluminium prices are 45% higher than a year before, although they peaked in October 2021 as well. Global record price highs were reported in nearly every forest products grade in 2021, with pulp prices already having peaked in May 2021.

The big price increases, logistics problems, and especially paper shortages started to weigh down on print production in the EU in the second half of 2021—as can be seen in the production index. After the big shutdown plunge in 2020 (with production down by more than 30% compared to the pre-pandemic level), print production volumes recovered somewhat. With the second and third wave hitting EU countries, the recovery stalled again, however, and at the end of 2020 the production output hovered at about 10% below pre-pandemic values. 2021 was supposed to get closer to pre-pandemic levels, and after a slump in February, production levels started to rise nicely until July 2022—with values being only 7% below the pre-pandemic average by then. This recovery did not last, however. August to October saw index values falling back to values around the 85 points mark, which is quite a bit lower than pre-pandemic levels. At least some of this set-back can be attributes to paper, transport, and cost issues.