How could we talk about 2021 without mentioning the main event of 2020: the COVID pandemic? Much of what will be important for the printing industry in 2021 is driven by the pandemic or by developments that were accelerated by it. Here are the top five trends that I believe will influence the printing industry in 2021 in Europe.

Printing industry output in Europe dropped on average by 35% at the height of COVID pandemic in 2020. For two months, print volumes dropped at an unprecedented rate. The recovery was swift until July, with volumes reaching about 10% below the pre-coronavirus level. Unfortunately, volumes remained at that level since—including the recently announced November data.

With the ongoing restrictions due to the fight against the coronavirus, the lower volume level will drag well into 2021 as key customer sectors like travel, events, and hospitality are still heavily impacted. The shortfall of 10% will likely remain for the first half of 2021. The second half will make up some of the deficit, but I would still expect volumes to remain 5% below the pre-COVID-19 level. The main reason is that, in the aftermath, many organizations will be struggling, especially as COVID-19 help will run out. Accordingly, companies will be cutting their advertising budgets and scrutinizing all expenses. Recall that after the 2008 financial crisis it took seven years for advertising spending to recover.