The US Department of Commerce issued its latest report of US commercial printing shipments (NAICS 323) and the data show 21 consecutive months of positive comparisons to the prior year current dollar shipments. The trend started with June 2014, and has been an average increase of +3.3%, +$225 million per month, for that period.

On an inflation-adjusted basis, 19 of the 21 months were positive after inflation adjustment, averaging a monthly +$178 million increase, and a +2.6% comparison.

During this period, current dollar GDP has averaged +3.7% while real GDP has averaged, +2.5%. These are the best comparisons with GDP in more than 20 years.

February 2016 shipments were $6.7 billion, +5% and +$319mm better than 2015 in current dollars, and +3.9% and +$254mm after adjusting for inflation.

For the first two months of the year, shipments are up +2.5% in current dollars.

The Commerce Department will release its multi-year revision of manufacturing shipments on May 18, 2016. Last year, they revised printing shipments up for prior years. Will the pendulum swing in the other direction? We will be watching carefully.