Keypoint Intelligence’s State of the Industry Report for Folding Cartons projects global folding carton volume to grow from 63.0 billion m² in 2023 to 68.5 billion m² by 2028. But behind this modest increase is a bigger transformation: digital printing, sustainability mandates, and evolving production models are changing how packaging is made and valued. Companies that respond strategically—not just react—will be better positioned for long-term growth.
Digital Printing: Still Niche, but Gaining Ground
Digital printing remains a small slice of the folding carton market—just 0.5% in 2023, projected to hit 1.1% by 2028. It’s ideal for short runs, but wider adoption is held back by higher costs, smaller format options, and reliability concerns.
“The challenge isn’t whether digital printing works—because it does,” says Jeff Wettersten, VP of Packaging at Keypoint Intelligence. “The challenge is proving that it delivers value beyond short-run cost savings.”
Digital adoption is more active in regions facing regulatory and market pressures. Broader growth depends on faster press speeds, lower consumable costs, and better integration with mainstream production.
Sustainability: Regulation Drives Changes
Sustainability will continue to have a significant impact on packaging markets. Industry participants generally agree that the breadth and reach of sustainability initiatives will ultimately be decided by consumers unless legislative bodies elect to mandate new requirements.
Converters must respond with increased use of FBB and CRB, simpler packaging formats, and waste-reduction technologies that don’t compromise branding. As Wettersten notes, “Sustainability isn’t just about meeting regulations—it’s about making packaging work harder.”
Looking Ahead: The Roadmap for Digital
Digital adoption will occur in a three-key phase approach: Print Cost Optimization, Total Cost Optimization, and New Customer Experiences. With each phase, digital’s addressable market expands—from 0.5 billion m² today to more than 5 billion m² by 2027.
While the folding carton market is not experiencing explosive growth, it is evolving in ways that require strategic thinking and investment. The move to digital is happening, sustainability regulations will only become more demanding, and the supply chain models will become more complex. Agility is now becoming the ultimate competitive advantage. The coming years will be defined by those who are proactive, not reactive, in adapting to change. Those that embrace innovation, sustainability, and smarter supply chain models will be the ones that not only survive but thrive.
