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September Summary of Leading Indicators

Going into September,

Friday, September 13, 2002

Going into September, please review your monthly summary of important industry indicators. - August Printer Confidence Index - for the second consecutive month, more than half of the print providers indicated their local market conditions are starting or continuing to decline. - August Print Buyer Pulse Index - six month outlook improved slightly for the first time in three months. - The PIB Advertising Index - total magazine advertising revenue for the month of August increased 2.7% compared to August of last year. - The Purchasing Managers Index - economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew for the seventh consecutive month in August. - The Print Employment Index - based on data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed a decline in employment for the printing segment. Total jobs in the sector for August was 1,404,000 versus 1,406,000 in July. - The Consumer Confidence Index - after a dip in July it declined again in August. The Index now stands at 93.5 (1985=100), down from 97.4 in July. Printer Confidence Index: In August, for the second consecutive month, more than half of the print providers (52.2%) indicated their local market conditions are starting or continuing to decline. The research suggests that the steady improvement throughout the spring in overall market sentiment has given way to negative conditions for the summer. Readers should note there has been a steady increase in negative market sentiment since April when only 35.2% of print providers cited declining market conditions. Print Buyer Pulse Index: Print customers’ outlook improved slightly for the first time in three months with 34.5% of print customers expect print spending to increase over the next 6 months. This level is below the highest level of 45.3% expecting an increase back in May. There was also a slight decrease in the percentage of print customers expecting print spending to decline over the next 6 months. PIB Advertising Index: Total magazine advertising revenue for the month of August increased 2.7% compared to August of last year, closing at $1,071,446,001, according to Publishers Information Bureau (PIB). Ad pages for August totaled 14,498, down 5.8 % from last year. Year-to-date, advertising revenue closed at $9,904,147,271, a 0.0% change, and ad pages were 135,105, down 8.3% over the same time period last year. Purchasing Managers Index: Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew for the seventh consecutive month in August. The overall economy grew for the 10th consecutive month. “August's PMI, at 50.5 percent, indicates that manufacturing improved when compared to July. New Orders softened, and are a cause for concern as we look at the balance of the year. At the current level of growth in the overall economy, many manufacturers find themselves anxious about second-half sales.” Print Employment Index: Both the unemployment rate, 5.7 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, 8.1 million, were little changed over the month. The jobless rates for the major worker groups--adult men (5.2 percent), adult women (4.9 percent), teenagers (17.2 percent), whites (5.1 percent), blacks (9.6 percent), and Hispanics (7.5 percent)--showed little or no change. The number of persons unemployed 15 weeks or more was 2.8 million in August, down from the recent high of 3.1 million in June. There was a drop in employment for the printing segment. Total jobs in the sector for August was 1,404,000 versus 1,406,000 in July. Consumer Confidence Index: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, after a dip in July, declined again in August. The Index now stands at 93.5 (1985=100), down from 97.4 in July. The Present Situation Index declined from 99.4 in July to 92.0 in August. The Expectations Index dropped from 96.1 to 94.5. Consumers' assessment of the present situation showed no improvement from July. Those rating business conditions as "good" fell from 20.2 percent in July to 16.6 percent in August. Consumers reporting jobs were plentiful declined from 18.8 percent to 17.2 percent, but those claiming jobs are hard to get remained unchanged at 23.9 percent.


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