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Industry Insight

BoSacks Speaks Out: Some magazines will die and some will soar

Steve Smith of Media Industry News fame,

By Bob Sacks
Published: August 22, 2012

Steve Smith of Media Industry News fame, reported about a forecast from Pivotal Research whereby Steve says, they expect "Magazines' ad share to diminish to 13.4% of media spend by 2017." Steve suggests that in the next five years there is little hope for a plateau from the "free fall of print magazine advertising..." He goes on to report that, "the rate of decline will continue unabated for the next five years, dipping by another 6.2% in 2013 but leveling somewhat to just below 5% loss hereafter. But cumulatively, as a piece of the overall media pie. That puts magazines at a 13.7% share by 2017."

As much as this is a very sobering report from Pivotal Research, let us stop and understand that one, it is just one company's opinion in a research forecast, and two, it refers to the industry as a whole. That being said, if your magazine is unique enough and has a special niche to attract a reading public, there is no reason you can't, in stock market terms, "outperform".

Here is my personal guarantee and you can take it to the bank.

Some magazines will die and some will soar, and that is the history of magazines since their invention. Someone, perhaps tomorrow, is going to create a new magazine or a new category that takes off like wild fire and makes gobs of money for many. We have all seen it before, and we will see it again. At the same time, some other titles aren't going to make the cut. This too is natural and historic.

 

Discussion

By Michael Jahn on Aug 23, 2012

After reading this - twice - all I could think of is the old Casey Stengel quote.

"Never make predictions, especially about the future."

 

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