The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday a of a survey of economists say the recession is now over:
After months of uncertainty, economists are finally seeing a break in the clouds. Forecasts were revised upward for every period, with 27 economists saying the recession had ended and 11 seeing a trough this month or next. Gross domestic product in the third quarter is now expected to show 2.4% growth at a seasonally adjusted annual rate amid signs of life in the manufacturing sector, partly spurred by inventory adjustments and strong demand for the "cash for clunkers" car-rebate program.
Dr. Joe Webb, WhatTheyThink's Director of Economics and Research recently wrote a blog post about this: This Bottom is Bumpy which was published before yesterday's report provides a frame of reference for this outlook and provides industry perspective.
Anecdotally I have received a few reports from printers that business is starting to pick up. What are you experiencing? Leave a comment below, or get in touch via email.
Discussion
By Adoniram on Aug 13, 2009
The recession may be over but it seems unlikely that western economies will quickly return to the kind of growth that marked the last decade. India and China have made movement during this period to invest in developing countries (as seen with the Chinese in Sudan) and in Asia at large. I don't think that this recession marks some arbitrary American decline but it does seem to be pointing toward a greater global balance of financial catalysts.
However, I think that better global distribution of supply and demand in all markets (particularly financial) is a very good thing.
Our little corner of print does seem to have slowed in its contraction, but it will take longer than two quarters to suss out exactly what is happening. I hate to be a bear, but it's a little early for those of us whom are B2C to say whether we're out of the woods or not. Perhaps that's different from what other consumer facing printers are experiencing.
I think that if we continue to see unemployment rise for one, two, three more quarters, we'll probably see flat growth in B2C - but those who do B2B in print will probably see things pick up as other industries begin to invest in marketing, etc, again.
By Michael J on Aug 14, 2009
I'm curious if people who are focused on small medium business and startups are seeing anything different.
I ask because according to Dr Joe's report the turnover rate of small business and start-ups seem to have held up pretty well even during the "meltdown."
By Michael J on Aug 14, 2009
Just got this in my email from the UK.
DM printers report unseasonal upswing after dire 12 months
Simon Nias, printweek.com
14 August 2009, 12:00
Direct mail printers have reported an unseasonal upturn in business that could mark the first tentative signs of the sector's emergence from the recession.
By Bill Fleck on Aug 19, 2009
Were these economists hired by the White House?? I find it hard to believe they think the "end is near". With all the failed governemnt (give away) programs that have not produced any real growth, I find it difficult to belive we are on the upswing. It would be interesting to ask printers like Quebecor World/World Color, RR Donnelley & Trancontinential what they think. Oh, & let's ask the top 10 metro newpapers what they think as well.
By Michael J on Aug 19, 2009
On the other hand, based on stock market performance, the big money thinks it's time to get back in the game.
Meanwhile I heard on today's Bloomberg that one of the big auto companies is adding shifts to meet the demand generated by the cash for clunkers program.
I guess it's all how you look at it.
Discussion
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