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October Summary of Leading Indicators

Going into October,

Sunday, October 13, 2002

Going into October, here is your monthly summary of key industry indicators. - September Printer Confidence Index - for the first time in three months, there was an increase in print providers indicating their local market conditions are starting or continuing to improve. - September Print Buyer Pulse Index - six month outlook declined slightly with 30.1% of print customers expecting print spending to increase over the next 6 months. - The PIB Advertising Index - total magazine advertising revenue for the month of September increased 9.2% compared to September 2001. - The Purchasing Managers Index - economic activity in the manufacturing sector declined in September after seven consecutive months of growth. - The Print Employment Index - based on data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed a sight increase in employment for the printing segment. Total jobs in the sector for September was 1,403,000 versus 1,401,000 in August.* - The Consumer Confidence Index - declined again in September. The Index now stands at 93.3 (1985=100), down from 94.5 in August. Printer Confidence Index: In September, for the first time in three months, there was an increase in print providers (24.4%) indicating their local market conditions are starting or continuing to improve. Despite the improvement in market sentiment, over 40% of print providers categorized their local conditions as starting or continuing to decline. The up-tick in market sentiment is likely due to seasonal increases in demand associated with many fall promotional campaigns. Print Buyer Pulse Index: The September polling indicated that 30.1% of print customers expect their print spending to increase over the next 6 months, a slight decline with the August (34.5%) level, but in line with July (29.7%) and June (31.8%) levels. The steady improvement in print customer 6-month sentiment, which peaked in the April and May polls, appears to have stabilized at a slightly lower level over the last three months. PIB Advertising Index: According to Publishers Information Bureau (PIB), total magazine advertising revenue for the month of September increased 9.2% compared to September 2001, closing at $1,814,401,173. Ad pages for September totaled 24,756.2, up 2.6% from last year. Year-to-date, advertising revenue closed at $11,702,119,564, an increase of 1.5%, and ad pages were 159,635.8, down 6.6% from last year. Purchasing Managers Index: Economic activity in the manufacturing sector declined in September after seven consecutive months of growth. The overall economy grew for the 11th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. "The PMI has averaged 50.2 percent over the last three months. After a strong first quarter, the manufacturing sector has softened significantly. Stagnant and sluggish are apt descriptions for manufacturing at this time. Much of this month's data, as might be expected when the indexes are at or near the breakeven point, is mixed and lacks a clear trend." Print Employment Index: Both nonfarm payroll employment and the unemployment rate were essentially unchanged in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job losses in manufacturing and transportation offset gains in finance and health services. The number of unemployed persons (8.1 million) and the unemployment rate (5.6 percent) were essentially unchanged in September. The jobless rates for the major worker groups--adult men (5.2 percent), adult women (4.9 percent), teenagers (15.7 percent), whites (5.1 percent), blacks (9.6 percent), and Hispanics (7.4 percent)--showed no statistically significant change in September. There was a slight increase in employment for the printing segment. Total jobs in the sector for September was 1,401,000 versus 1,403,000 in August. (*Seasonally adjusted, further adjustments may be made.) Consumer Confidence Index: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which had fallen in the last three months, declined again in September. The Index now stands at 93.3 (1985=100), down from 94.5 in August. The Present Situation Index declined to 88.5 from 93.1, while the Expectations Index rose to 96.5 from 95.5. Consumers' assessment of the present situation was mixed. Those rating business conditions as "good" increased from 16.7 percent to 18.2 percent. However, those rating conditions as "bad" also increased, from 21.8 percent to 23.3 percent. Consumers reporting jobs were plentiful declined to 15.9 percent, down from 17.4 percent. Those claiming jobs are hard to get climbed to 25.5 percent, up from 23.8 percent last month.


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