Corrugated packaging is projected to grow at a CAGR of ~4% during the period from 2022–2027. Notably, the growth rate of digital corrugated production relative to all production methods during that period is just under 10X. However, it will still be a small fraction of the total volume produced in this almost $3 billion market, with less than 150 single-pass digital presses installed around the globe in comparison with the ~20,000 printers primarily using flexo.

This is understandable, as we have observed this in other transitions from analog to digital production, with the rate of adoption being constrained by the generally higher cost of digital production. We have seen both the growth drivers and the constraints during these transitions, first in commercial print, then labels, and now in flexible packaging, folding carton, and corrugated. Ultimately, the rate of adoption of these new digital technologies comes down to TCO (Total Cost of Ownership), or more specifically Value vs. Volume costs. The demand for shorter runs is increasing, driven by consumer market shifts across the packaging landscape. However, justifying the cost of digital production per package/box, when the ink cost is almost 10X the cost of flexo ink, and close to equal with the media in some cases is difficult unless there is some added value—for example, the need for on-demand speed, higher quality, or a special marketing opportunity. 

While many label, folding carton, flexible packaging, and corrugated converters are finding that while the digital production cost is higher, adding digital production can bring a higher OEE to the entire production plant, by opening up analog production for the longer runs. That doesn’t change the fact that the analog digital cost crossover values still exist, albeit at increasingly higher run volumes with the newer inkjet equipment models.