Our Friday data slice’n’dice look at the latest edition of County Business Patterns now turns to the converting industries. As 2022 began, there were 1,885 establishments in NAICS 32221 (Paperboard Container Manufacturing). This category saw a net decrease of 14% since 2010.
The Bureau of the Census definition for this business classification:
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in converting paperboard into containers without manufacturing paperboard. These establishments use corrugating, cutting, and shaping machinery to form paperboard into containers. Products made by these establishments include boxes, corrugated sheets, pads, pallets, paper dishes, and fiber drums and reels.
In this category, software prototyping of packaging such as boxes results in innovative designs, which can optimize the logistics of transporting packages, especially from overseas manufacturers. This has only accelerated since, but environmental concerns are becoming more important in box conversion. Since the mid-2010s, ecommerce has been driving demand for more and newer types of corrugated boxes. At the same time, we have also seen a not inconsiderable amount of consolidation in this sector.
Establishments in this category are larger than we have seen in the printing and publishing industries. Small paperboard manufacturers (1 to 9 employees) account for only 14% of all establishments, while large manufacturers (50+ employees) account for more than half (56%).
These counts are based on data from the Census Bureau’s County Business Patterns. Every other week, we update these data series with the latest figures. These counts are broken down by printing business classification (based on NAICS, the North American Industrial Classification System).
Next up, we’ll continue through the converting NAICS categories:
- 322212 Folding Paperboard Box Manufacturing
- 322219 Other Paperboard Container Manufacturing
- 32222 Paper Bag and Coated and Treated Paper Manufacturing
- 32223 Stationery Product Manufacturing
- 32229 Other Converted Paper Product Manufacturing
- 322291 Sanitary Paper Product Manufacturing
- 322299 All Other Converted Paper Product Manufacturing
To clarify what is included in the 2022 CBP, establishment counts represent the number of locations with paid employees at any time during the year. If an establishment existed at any point during the year, it would be included in the CBP count of the number of establishments for 2022 CBP.
These data, and the overarching year-to-year trends, like other demographic data, can be used not only for business planning and forecasting, but also sales and marketing resource allocation.
This Macro Moment…
One of our go-to macroeconomic resources is Bill McBride’s Calculated Risk. Back in February, he launched a “Recession Watch” wherein he used various economic indicators to gauge the likelihood (or not) of an imminent recession. He saw no indication of one, but this week he took a second look. Any changes? Not really.
I'm still not yet predicting a recession for several reasons: the U.S. economy is very resilient and was on solid footing at the beginning of the year, and perhaps the tariffs are not enough to topple the economy.
In the short term, it is mostly trade policy that will negatively impact the economy. However, there other aspects of policy that bear watching - especially immigration.
He also looks at housing, the yield curve (a historical recession predictor, but is it still?), heavy truck and vehicle sales, employment (yes, it’s an eclectic mix), and a few other factors as well.
None of these indicators are suggesting a recession. For now, I'll focus on the leading indicators (especially housing) and I'll update this post monthly while I'm on recession watch.
But via Econbrowser, other economists are starting to get a bit more bearish.
