France accounts for the fourth largest printing industry in Europe. There is no doubt that the COVID-19 pandemic did impact the printing industry (like other industry sectors) heavily. Still, it is difficult to quantify the impact as the most recent revenue data Eurostat publishes still dates from 2018 only. As a more timely series, Eurostat publishes a production index for printing and recorded media, which gives an indication on how production volumes developed based on 2015 averages. The most recent data point for France dates from January 2021.

During the height of the COVID-19 crisis in April 2020, the production volume index dropped to 60% of the 2015 production average. As volumes were slightly up compared to 2015 before the pandemic, the drop amounts to 43% below the pre-coronavirus average. France went into a strict lockdown early in the pandemic, therefore the drop until April was quite pronounced. In contrast, the EU output (which excludes the UK production) dropped by 31% compared to the pre-pandemic average.

The steep drop led to a strong recovery from May to July, but then the recovery stalled. With the second wave of lockdowns kicking in, output since October started to slide again (based on seasonally adjusted data). In the latest reported months, the production index remained 12% to 14% below the pre-COVID values—which is lower than most other European recovery numbers. Further recovery will depend on industry and service sectors currently shut down or impeded kicking in again. Especially a lack of tourism is hitting the economy.

Taking into account the decline and recovery, 2020 print industry production is down by about 15% compared to 2019. Assuming a slight increase in prices the revenue decline for 2020 over 2019 could be in the 12 to 13% range.

Source: Eurostat

The index data gives a timely reference on how well industry sectors are doing. Less timely is the reporting of revenues, however it does show the total industry size.

Printing industry revenues for France dropped from €10.5 billion in 2009 in the aftermath of the euro crisis to a relatively stable level of close to €9 billion for several years. 2018 did see another strong decline to €7.7 billion. 2019 should have brought an uptick, but Eurostat has not published the data yet.

Source: Eurostat, digitalprintexpert.de

This series on the impact of COVID-19 on printing industry production volumes in Europe will continue. Next up: the printing industry in Spain.