The UK accounts for the second largest printing industry in Europe. There is no doubt that the COVID-19 pandemic did impact the printing industry (like other industry sectors) heavily. Still, it is difficult to quantify the impact as the most recent revenue data Eurostat publishes dates from 2018. As a more timely series, Eurostat publishes a production index for printing and recorded media, which gives an indication of how production volumes developed based on 2015 averages. The most recent data point for the UK dates from October 2020. As other countries report until December already it seems that the UK is falling behind in reporting after Brexit.

During the height of the COVID-19 crisis in April 2020, the production volume index dropped to 55% of the 2015 production average. As volumes were already down compared to 2015 before the pandemic, the drop amounts to 40% below the pre-coronavirus average. As the UK had few restrictions early in the pandemic, the drop in April was more pronounced. In contrast, the EU output (which excludes the UK production) dropped by 31% compared to the pre-pandemic average.

The steep drop led to a strong recovery from May to July, but then the recovery stalled. With the second wave of lockdowns kicking in, the output from August to October fell a bit behind July (based on seasonally adjusted data). In the latest reported months, the production index remained 18% to 20% below the pre-COVID values—which is noticeably lower than most other European recovery numbers. Further recovery will depend on industry and service sectors currently shut down or impeded kicking in again.

Taking into account the decline and recovery, the industry production could be down by about 20% compared to 2019. Assuming a slight increase in prices the revenue decline for 2020 over 2019 could be in the 15 to 18% range.

Source: Eurostat

The index data gives a timely reference on how well industry sectors are doing. Less timely is the reporting of revenues. However, it does show the total industry size.

Printing industry revenues for the UK hovered mainly around the €12 billion mark. Keep in mind that the data below is expressed in euros. The decline in production value since 2015 is owed to a strong decline in the average exchange rate of the British pound since 2015—while 2015 did see a relatively high exchange rate of the pound against the euro.

Source: Eurostat, digitalprintexpert.de 

This series on the impact of COVID-19 on printing industry production volumes in Europe will continue. Next time, we will have a look at the printing industry in Italy.