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May Manufacturing ISM Report: PMI at 51.4%, Dr. Joe Comments

Thursday, June 02, 2005

Press release from the issuing company

(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in May for the 24th consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 43rd consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The manufacturing sector grew for the 24th consecutive month in May based on the ISM data. While this represents the longest period of growth in the last 16 years, the data also indicates that the sector is losing momentum, as this month's PMI is at the lowest level since June 2003 when it registered 50.4 percent. The rate of growth in New Orders continues to decline, and this month only 11 of 20 industries are reporting improvement when comparing May to April. The Employment Index failed to grow, ending 18 months of employment growth. The manufacturing sector is definitely slowing, and the question is whether a somewhat stronger dollar and the burden of high energy costs are slowly bringing this manufacturing growth cycle to end." TOP PERFORMING INDUSTRIES The 15 industries reporting growth in May — listed in order — are: Petroleum; Leather; Wood & Wood Products; Chemicals; Food; Rubber & Plastic Products; Electronic Components & Equipment; Industrial & Commercial Equipment & Computers; Instruments & Photographic Equipment; Glass, Stone & Aggregate; Furniture; Primary Metals; Textiles; Transportation & Equipment; and Fabricated Metals. The industries reporting decreased activity in May are: Apparel; Tobacco; Printing & Publishing; Paper; and Miscellaneous*. Dr. Joe Comments: Today's ISM Report Implies Fed is Done The ISM report on manufacturing dropped to 51.4, which still shows growth, but it is clearly slowing. The employment part of the index shows manufacturing employment contracting. The number was affected by some negative reports from autos. Inflation as measured by the ISM looked like it was finally cooling. http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/ROB062005.cfm The fact that the 10-year bond dropped below 4% is another sign that inflation concerns are waning. I hope it's one more time in June for the Fed and that's it. If it's not, it's a replay of 2001's overtightening all over again. ----- Premium Access Members at WhatTheyThink.com can view more analysis in Dr. Joe Webb’s weekly column on Friday, appropriately called "Fridays with Dr. Joe".




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