Does Google Type “Money” in the Search Box and Click “I'm Feeling Lucky”?.... And Other Random Thoughts

Published December 1, 2010

To Prepare for 2011, Imagine It Is 1994 Again

Published November 29, 2010

Dr. Joe must have a time machine, because all he wants to talk about is 1994. He wonders why the planning process used by companies large and small always seems to miss critical market shifts and reinforce the status quo, actually constraining the ability to change. What can make the planning process more effective and our companies more adept when the marketplace takes an unexpected turn?

Updating the Macroeconomic Picture: To "L" with It

Published November 17, 2010

Sharp Decrease in Layoffs Due to Bankruptcy Reflect Industry Improvement

Published November 15, 2010

Even something that sounds bad, like the number of printing industry layoffs due to bankruptcy, can be good if they're declining. Dr. Joe explains the sharp decline in the last four quarters and why it's very good news.

Reading Past the Employment Headline: Someone's Got to Do It

Published November 8, 2010

Sometimes you actually have to read past the first paragraph to find out what's going on, and looking at the tables of statistical reports with the real data leads to conclusions that are quite different than the headlines. Dr. Joe does the statistical equivalent of going into the kitchen to see how clean it is before believing a restaurant's reviews. You may have heard that there were elections last week, and that they might have been important. Keep it all in perspective, and don't get ahead of things. There's political chaos ahead that may only increase the uncertainty.

September U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +3.4%; Six Consecutive Months of Growth Versus 2009

Published November 4, 2010

September 2010 commercial printing shipments were $7.58 billion, up $248 million (+3.4%) compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were up +2.2%. “This continues the consecutive gain in current dollar shipments for six months, a welcome change for commercial printers,” explained Dr. Joe Webb, director of WhatTheyThink's Economics and Research Center.

The Recovery is Still a Capital L; True Uncertainty is Back

Published November 3, 2010

Q3 2010 Real GDP on Quarter/Quarter and Year/Year Basis

Published November 1, 2010

Dr. Joe looks at the advance report for GDP in 2010's third quarter and explains what it means, what it doesn't, and why it might be worth ignoring.

Does Creative Employment Indicate Good News for Print Volume?

Published October 26, 2010

Capacity Utilization: (Virtually) Meaningless

Published October 25, 2010

Dr. Joe has quite the capacity to cause an argument about most anything economic, especially capacity utilization. Perhaps the state of employment in our industry is showing an unexpected shift from the big printing enclaves to new areas of growth. This unusual finding deserves some further scrutiny. Magazines get a boost from the auto industry, which was a clunker until recently. The sideways movement of the economy is obvious again, but Dr. Joe was flying high on WiFi and gives it the thumbs up.

Change in Commercial Printing Segments 1997-2008

Published October 18, 2010

Dr. Joe updates his look at the recent trends in printing industry employment and the last five months of increased sales are playing out.

Latest Macroeconomic Snapshot

Published October 16, 2010

Three Numbers, 30-60-100, Foreshadow What's Ahead

Published October 11, 2010

Dr. Joe explains what the numbers 30, 60, and 100 have to do with 2020 and our industry. Somehow, it all adds up. The unemployment report shows an “L” shaped recession, even though we are now in an extended recovery. See what 30, 60, and 100 have in store for us.

August U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +3.3%

Published October 11, 2010

August 2010 commercial printing shipments were $7.3 billion, up $235 million (+3.3%) compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were up +2.2.

Printing Shipments Up 5 Consecutive Months; Recovery Indicators Positively Mixed

Published October 6, 2010

ISM Manufacturing Index - Selected Components Since December 2007

Published October 4, 2010

Dr. Joe explains the latest Institute for Supply Management manufacturing report in terms of its key components of new orders, prices paid, employment, and imports. The manufacturing side of the economy is still growing, but it looks like it's slowing down, and inflation is starting to creep into the system.

Dr. Joe Answers Xerox' Panel Discussion Questions

Published October 2, 2010

Random Comments and Musings Before Graph Expo

Published September 29, 2010

Dr. Joe at Graph Expo

Published September 27, 2010

The educational aspects of the show floor at Graph Expo are an under-utilized opportunity that companies can use to better educate their staff. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research certainly has taken its time in informing us when the recession ended and might soon be telling us the recovery is over. Dr. Joe explains it all, and even offers a review of Warren Werbitt's latest opus.

Rumor: Ann Mulcahy to Replace Larry Summers, Why It Should, But Won't Happen

Published September 22, 2010

Major Investment Areas Commerical Sheetfed vs. Commercial Digital Color

Published September 20, 2010

As we head into GraphExpo, what does our latest survey show that commercial sheetfed and commercial color digital printers are looking for? Dr. Joe explains it all

Review of Our Latest Macroeconomic Snapshot

Published September 19, 2010

Happy Software Freedom Day, September 18, 2010

Published September 17, 2010

U.S. Commercial Printing Businesses Produce Estimated $1.1 Billion in Profits in Second Quarter 2010

Published September 15, 2010

The second quarter of 2010 continued a welcome continuation of mild profitability for the industry. Much of the industry is still recovering from a very difficult 2009, and two quarters of profits can't really make up for that. But we're on the right track, even though there are still challenges ahead.

What? Printers are Making Capital Investments?

Published September 13, 2010

The only thing certain is confusion. If business is so bad, why does our recent survey of commercial printers show they are planning to invest? Newspapers announce plans to keep their print edition - but we learned of it in non-print media! Things are certainly confusing, and this column might raise the confusion to an even higher level of sophistication.

July U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +0.3%

Published September 7, 2010

July 2010 commercial printing shipments were $6.87 billion, up $18 million (+0.3%) compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were down -1%. This continues the consecutive gain in current dollar shipments for four months, the first time we have had a period of that extent since November 2007.

Recovery Indicators Still Positive, but Two are Worrisome; Unemployment Report is Troublesome

Published September 3, 2010

Revised Q2 GDP Implies More Slow Going Ahead

Published August 27, 2010

Ramblings, Whinings, and Admonitions

Published August 25, 2010

Questioning Common Wisdom is Important to Strategy

Published August 23, 2010

How often have we heard that print is a trusted medium, that awareness and familiarity are goals of advertising communications, or that print is key to touching prospects or customers? The new communications market is filled with opportunities for print entrepreneurs, but going against the common wisdom of industry myths is an important aspect of the entrepreneurial spirit. If you believe it's important to embrace change to be successful, then start by questioning commonly-held beliefs about the medium of print.

The Economy is Slowing... What Does that Mean for Us?

Published August 18, 2010

How magazine circulation, ad pages and mailed by piece has changed since 2000

Published August 16, 2010

How have magazines changed over the last 10 years? Dr. Joe looks at subscription circulation, ad pages, postal shipments and weight, and what they tell us about this critical segment of our industry.

Even the Fed Worries about a Continuing Downturn

Published August 10, 2010

The Unsatisfying L-Shaped Recovery Continues

Published August 9, 2010

Remember when people used to argue about a V-shaped recovery, or a U-shaped one, or even a W-shaped one? Dr. Joe kept saying the recovery was a lot earlier in the alphabet, and that letter was “L.” Recent economic data seem to be playing out exactly that way, with employment virtually the same as it was last year and GDP growth declining to levels that are indicative more of recession than recovery. Don't say you weren't warned. Yet despite all of the market pessimism, the printing industry seems to be righting itself and showing some signs of vitality.

Latest Recovery Indicators Still Moving Sideways

Published August 4, 2010

2Q Printing Shipments Better than 2009

Published August 3, 2010

Second Quarter U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +2.8%

Published August 3, 2010

June 2010 commercial printing shipments were $7.2 billion, up +2.4% compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were up +1.3%. “This is the first three month gain in shipments on an inflation-adjusted basis since the period of October 2006 through April 2007.

More printers interested in buying than selling books of business customer base

Published August 2, 2010

Who's buying and who's selling? The print business has been consolidating, and we're certain there is more to go, especially with the popularity of "tuck-ins." Dr. Joe explains why "tuck-ins" are not about what you should do with your shirt, but how it has slowly been creating a more efficient industry.

Dr. Joe Rambles On About the Post Office, Apple, the Economy, and Other Things

Published July 28, 2010

The Profitable Survivors

Published July 26, 2010

The printing industry may be through the worst of its restructuring efforts, but we know there is still more work to do. Dr. Joe explains how the corner may have been turned about a year ago, creating a class of surviving businesses that are claiming revenue increases. Then he puts on the green eyeshades and discusses "bonus depreciation." Of course, his take on the issue is different than what you might have heard elsewhere. (Again?)

Judging Real Performance of the Print Business

Published July 20, 2010

Change in Commerical Printing Segments 1997-2008

Published July 19, 2010

Dr. Joe discusses how commercial printing segments have changed their share of industry shipments from 1997 through 2008, and why digital printing's share might be even larger than the data indicate.

Don't Believe the Papers: Retail Sales are Better than Reported

Published July 14, 2010

Dr. Joe reviews the "recovery", USPS rate hikes and our latest & greatest tax policies

Published July 12, 2010

Months ago, Dr. Joe said we would have an L-shaped recovery, and indeed that seems to be the case. 2011 taxes are already playing into today's economy and creating unintended consequences. And then there's the Postal Service request for emergency price increases. Is it as out of touch with the marketplace as it seems, or is that just the way bureaucrats cry out for help?

Recovery Indicators Retreat

Published July 7, 2010

May U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +3.6%

Published July 6, 2010

May's shipments were up compared to 2009, and April's were revised significantly upward. This is the first time since early 2008 that the industry produced two consecutive months with shipment increases. For complete details see this month's printing shipments report.

May & April Shipments UP!

Published July 5, 2010

Dr. Joe Creates a Fable About Taxes and Investment

Published July 2, 2010

Economic Data Galore in the Next Week

Published June 29, 2010

What Would Get the Economy Moving Again?

Published June 28, 2010

Dr. Joe wants to start the economy booming again, and he offers a prescription he knows no one will heed. He also explains how small business owners make hiring decisions and some of the financial factors that roll through their minds as they do so. Just what we need... medicine no one wants to take, and a lesson in finance. The July 4th weekend can't come soon enough.

Dr. Joe reviews the latest economic data

Published June 21, 2010

Dr. Joe reviews the latest economic data and explains where we're headed for the third and fourth quarters and why.

Content Creation Markets: Top-Line Revenue Trends

Published June 18, 2010

Printing Profits Improving: Q1-2010 is Up $830 Million vs. Q1-2009

Published June 15, 2010

First Quarter 2010 Profits for U.S. Commercial Printing Businesses

Published June 15, 2010

The first quarter of 2010 was a significant change compared to the same quarter of last year. The industry had a difficult time in 2009, and the profits that were initially reported for the fourth quarter of 2009 were swept away in a data revision by the Commerce Department. But 2009 was profitable, and this first quarter of 2010 was very encouraging. Profit levels are increasing, not because of higher market prices, but because of employee downsizing, and the departure of weakest printers. Dr. Webb emphasized that there are still challenges ahead because of the continuing growth of new communications that will affect the demand for print. We must remember that just because the industry may be having a tough time, there are profitable companies who are offering innovative services to their clients. The restructuring of the industry will be built on the entrepreneurial actions of these firms.

"Print is Not Dead" Should be DOA

Published June 14, 2010

A man walks into a pet store, holding a bird cage by its handle, and approaches the counter. At the bottom of the cage is a blue parrot, claws up. The man and the clerk engage in some banter, not about the bird being dead, but how beautiful its plumage is. Why is it that “print is not dead” only conjures up some decades-old Monty Python sketch? Dr. Joe explains how just having a pulse does not qualify one for a new and dynamic communications marketplace... how new technology is conspiring to make us a craft industry, yet again.

April 2010 commercial printing shipments

Published June 7, 2010

April 2010 commercial printing shipments were $7.05 billion, down -1.9% compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were down -4.1%. For the first four months of 2010, shipments were down -4.7% on a current dollar basis.

Jobs Report Highlights What the Real Problems of the Economy Are

Published June 4, 2010

Recovery Indicators Take a Pause that Might Actually be for Refreshment

Published June 3, 2010

Is Bullishness at IPEX a Positive Sign?

Published May 25, 2010

Is the Case for the Double-Dip Recession Stronger Now?

Published May 24, 2010

Double-dip usually means a diet-busting serving of ice cream. If ice cream is easy money, and the diet is the judicious use of credit, then it's another way to explain Europe's economic crisis. To paraphrase the old saying, “What if they gave a V-shaped recovery and nobody came,” might be what's happening to the economy. When no one's certain what's ahead, they focus on what they know.

Does ROI Miss the Mark? Is ROT Better?

Published May 20, 2010

Commerce Department Revises Printing Shipments Data

Published May 17, 2010

The Department of Commerce revised almost 10 years of printing industry shipments data last week. The WhatTheyThink economic data elves dug into the data and explain what those revisions mean, what years were revised up, and which ones were revised down.

The Other Diversity and Furrowed Brows

Published May 13, 2010

Does it Have Legs? The Economy's Still Wearing Long Pants

Published May 10, 2010

The unemployment report was released Friday, and though it was almost 10%, there was good news. Will it last? Print and GDP continue their decade-plus estrangement. Disposable income is not the money you throw away, but the money you can spend as you wish. Well, maybe it is the money you throw away. Unless something changes, some of that money will go to filling out forms. Nothing like bureaucracy as a growth business.

Economy Recovery Indicators Show Positive Signs, Despite New Worries

Published May 5, 2010

Year/Year Changes in Real GDP vs. Real Proprietors Income

Published May 3, 2010

The first quarter GDP showed that the economy is growing, but that was compared to the fourth quarter. How is GDP changing on a year-to-year comparison? The GDP data are about the whole economy, but how is small business doing? Dr. Joe explains how a rarely reported part of the quarterly GDP data helps us judge the health of small businesses.

Nearly Mindless Ramblings

Published April 29, 2010

On Recoveries and CAPEX Investment Cycles: Why This is Different

Published April 26, 2010

A rising tide makes everyone a genius, even the bad managers. The improving economy is a less powerful trend than the upheavals that digital media are creating. Capital investment by printers is being affected by consolidation, the upside-down condition of interest rates, investments in new media, and a shift in industry print processes. For those waiting for the old economic and investment cycles to repeat themselves, this will be disappointing.

A Quick Look at the Economy

Published April 22, 2010

Inflation-adjusted and Annualized Publishing and Advertising Revenues

Published April 19, 2010

The trends in industry revenues of advertising and publishing sectors each tell an interesting story. They get more interesting once iPhones, Kindles, and iPads are added to the mix. Dr. Joe explains it all, but may have more questions than answers, which might spell opportunities for print businesses.

Change, the Conversation

Published April 15, 2010

Print is Not Vital but the Print Business Should Be

Published April 12, 2010

The power of print. Print is vital. Print has had longer than a decade of power outage. Print is not vital, print is a choice, and sometimes that choice is "no." Now what? In this kind of environment, the printing business becomes more important than the print medium. How that all plays out is up to our entrepreneurs. Dr. Joe explains.

Recovery Indicators Show Signs of Robust Growth: Can We Count on Them?

Published April 8, 2010

Q1 2010 Webinar Post Event Q&A

Published April 7, 2010

ISM Manufacturing Index Shows Eight Months of Growth

Published April 5, 2010

The ISM Manufacturing Index is one of the most watched economic indicators. It's up for 8 consecutive months, and the latest release was one of the strongest of this decade. Dr. Joe gives some background and explains what this latest reading means.

First, The Good News

Published March 22, 2010

Dr. Joe gives us the good news... first... and there really is some! Then he explains how some of the good news is like a Hollywood movie set: great facades, and then only braces and forms behind them, but some of it is really good. He then reminds us that turmoil creates opportunities, and turmoil also creates content. The challenge to printing entrepreneurs is to translate that to value for their businesses.

As The Industry Churns

Published March 15, 2010

The Census Bureau publishes printing industry births and deaths data, but the data take years to be published. The latest data are from 2006, but Dr. Joe estimates what's happened since,especially 2008 and 2009.

Weathering the Employment and Printing Shipments Data

Published March 8, 2010

The employment report was better than the cable channel talking heads thought it would be. Printing shipments continued their unfortunate relationship with economic growth. The Postal Service continues  a summer sale initiative that only fat cats can like.

Recovery Indicators Take Another Sidestep

Published March 4, 2010

Just When I Thought We Were Becoming Japan, Stagflation Seems More Likely Again

Published February 22, 2010

Is the U.S. Economy playing out like 1990s Japan or 1970s U.S. stagflation? Dr. Joe changes his mind... again. All it took was the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index releases of last week. Well, so much for his lecturing about the tendency of managers to react to the last thing they hear rather than pondering things. He also suggests buying oil with gold might be a good idea after looking at the last 20 years of data. That should be interesting to try during the New England heating season when the oil truck stops by. And if you thought Keynes was dead, you should see his new rap video with Frederich A. Hayek. If dead economists can make a rap video, can Elvis be far behind?

Marketing Services is the Easy Answer, Just Like Buying New Equipment Always Was

Published February 17, 2010

Broadband hours and the statistical relationship with printing volumes

Published February 15, 2010

Broadband use by adults has been increasing and the number of households with broadband service has almost doubled since 2005. What's the relationship with commercial printing volume? Last year, there were about 48 billion hours of broadband use by households, and every additional hour of use decreases commercial print volume by about $2.

How Printing Industry Employment has Changed Since 2000

Published February 10, 2010

Nothing Confuses Like Statistics

Published February 8, 2010

Things are not always what they seem, especially when statistics are involved. How else can one explain a GDP report of +5.7% and a decrease in the unemployment rate being matched with long faces and pessimism? The economic side-step is continuing, and a mild upturn is being viewed with suspicion. Every time there's good economic data, it seems to barely survive the headline and first paragraph of its press release without devolving into adjustments, revisions, and clarifications. Our job as managers is not just requiring navigation skills, but seems to need a refresher course in defensive driving.

Is the Recovery Sputtering Already? Caution is the Word

Published February 3, 2010

Year/Year US Gross Domestic Product

Published February 1, 2010

Why was Q4-09 GDP +5.7% met with a stock market decline and more handwringing about the economy? Dr. Joe looks at the yearly change in GDP, and explains it all.

Disrupting the Future

Published February 1, 2010

A contrarian look at the printing industry and the new rules and strategies needed to succeed.

Apple's iPad, a Great Leap Forward of... The Same Trends We Already Knew

Published January 28, 2010

Newspaper Industry Woes Not Being Cured By Online Revenues

Published January 25, 2010

Newspapers were supposed to survive the new media age because of their highly educated, high income audience, and then when that didn't work, their superior content would make news websites into Internet advertising magnets. Now, even online advertising is shrinking for newspapers. What's next?

Adjusting Your Company Financials for Inflation, And Why You Should Do It

Published January 20, 2010

Same Old, Same Old is Getting Tiresome

Published January 18, 2010

Dr. Joe starts his eighth year with WhatTheyThink, and he's less Dr. Doom-ish. There are some signs, though not confirmed, that the industry may have finally finished riding a steep and traumatic downdraft and found a steadier level with a more gradual and predictable outcome. November shipments were down at the lowest rate of any month in 2009, and there were only 100 fewer print workers in December than there were in November. The national economy still has its problems, employment is actually worse than most realize, and incomes are still under pressure. The Bureau of Labor Statistics forecast print employment for 2018, and their forecast is, unfortunately, already fulfilled.

The Recovery Indicators: Sideways is Better than Down

Published January 14, 2010

Dr. Joe Answers Economic Webinar Questions ? Part 2 of 2

Published December 15, 2009

Commerical Printing and Services Shipments 2003-2015

Published December 14, 2009

Dr. Joe Answers Economic Webinar Questions ? Part 1 of 2

Published December 10, 2009

Oh, Those Cable TV Talking Heads

Published December 7, 2009

You'd think that all of the economic wounds of the U.S. economy were healed all at once when last Friday's unemployment report was announced. For some reason, the good news in it was glossed over, and the bad news was ignored.

Number of US Commercial Printing and Print Services Establishments 2003-2015

Published December 7, 2009

Is It Good or Bad: Make Up Your Mind Already!

Published December 2, 2009

Change In Number Of Employees For Commerical Printing & Services

Published November 30, 2009

If You Can't Do It Well, Don't Do It

Published November 18, 2009