Economic Indicators Still Muddling Through; Slowdown Risks Rising

Published July 11, 2011

Changing the Mindset, Part 2 of 2

Published July 11, 2011

Two weeks ago, Dr. Joe discussed the changes that are underway in media and the amazing gadgets that access them. He continues that discussion, revealing some astonishing data about technology adoption and the change in the economic relationship of advertising agency and commercial printing demographics. Urgency is the new mandate for the print business owner, according to Dr. Webb. That probably means you should read this column right now.

Random Thoughts at the End of the Second Quarter

Published June 29, 2011

Changing Our Mindset, Part 1 of 2

Published June 27, 2011

Dr. Joe takes a hard look at the nature of media, the costs and definition of journalism, and what cloud computing means. It's one of those eclectic mixes of data and information that the good Doctor has been known to conjure up. The brew is so big that it has to be spread over two columns! Watch for the next edition on July 11th.

The Efficiency Economy

Published June 21, 2011

Six Consecutive Profitable Quarters for U.S. Commercial Printing Businesses

Published June 15, 2011

The first quarter of 2011 continued a welcome continuation of profitability for the industry. The industry shakeout of unprofitable businesses, and the better management of healthier businesses continues to create an improved bottom line, but there are still great challenges ahead. The restructuring of the industry will be a continuing process in 2011 and beyond.

Will We Be Pining for 2008 the Way We Miss 1998?

Published June 13, 2011

We wish April showers were dollars flowing into print businesses, but that did not seem to happen. Who would have thought that we would miss 2004-2008, looking at that period as a time of stability? One of our recovery indicators, the NASDAQ, seems to have relapsed and may be heading for rehab. Perhaps the wild and fun ride it had on Ben Bernanke's QE2 has now come to an end. It may not get another cruise until he pilots a brand new ship, QE3, but rumors of that cruise liner's voyage are just that-rumors. QE2's huge midnight buffet was nice, but the economic heartburn may take a while to pass.

April 2011 U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Down

Published June 9, 2011

April 2011 commercial printing shipments were $7.08 billion, down -$109 million (-1.5%) compared to 2010. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were down -$366 million (-4.5%).

Economy Gets Pause that Isn't Refreshing

Published June 3, 2011

Counterintuitive Economics

Published May 30, 2011

USPS Volume Mix Changes; Periodicals Still Declining

Published May 24, 2011

Urgency Gets No Summer Vacation This Year

Published May 23, 2011

What do Social Security checks, grandchildren, bedtime and doctors have in common? Dr. Joe explains it all, and has some suggestions about what the industry should be thinking about during summer vacations and summer shutdowns. He's on the "it's 1994 again" rant once more, so you've been warned.

Inflation and Worker Earnings Moving in the Wrong Directions

Published May 15, 2011

The L-Shaped Recovery Rolls On

Published May 9, 2011

Unemployment went up, but the headlines were happy. Commodities prices drop sharply, but how far they have risen seems to be forgotten. The Fed feels rewarded for its inaction, and Dr. Joe finds a silver lining.

March 2011 U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up; Twelve Months of Increases

Published May 6, 2011

March printing shipments were up, resulting in 12 consecutive months of increase. Dr. Webb explains how the easy comparisons to the prior year are about to end, and that the balance of 2011 will be about the same as 2010. He reviews the upcoming data revisions from the Commerce Department on May 13, the importance of inflation adjusting company financial data, and the shipment rates of Canada's commercial printing industry.

Recovery Indicators Better than the Recession Start, but are Now Stalling

Published May 4, 2011

Q1 GDP Disappoints, but No One is Surprised

Published April 28, 2011

Shocking News! Gas is One-Fifth the Price it Was in 1980: Here's Why

Published April 25, 2011

Things are never what they seem in economics, like how we paid $10.78 per gallon for gas in 1980. Dr. Joe explains the strange math that reminds us about the distortions of inflation and the wonder of ingenuity, and how news reporters unaware of them. Pepsi made a huge blunder with social media, but we should be encouraged by their mistake because it should inspire print business executives that they are just as smart as those Ivy League execs with all their market research reports. We may have the ultimate weapon: common sense.

Q&A for Economic Webinar of April 20, 2011

Published April 21, 2011

Economic Casablanca: I am Shocked! Shocked!

Published April 19, 2011

Still Trudging Through and Trudging Some More

Published April 11, 2011

Today's economic conditions make economists wish they had more hands and while making the common people more frustrated in their attempts to figure it out. Oil and food are rising in price, but the economy seems better in some ways with some reports of improving employment. GDP is still rising, but some industries are still suffering. Dr. Joe explains why just staying busy is not enough and that it's what you're doing that really matters.

U.S. Commercial Printing Businesses Produce Estimated $1.11 Billion in Profits in Fourth Quarter 2010

Published April 6, 2011

Dr. Joe Webb has compiled reports on US commercial printing profits going back to 1995, and brings it all current to Q4 2010. This report examines the latest trends in shipments, profits and capacity for the industry, of which the Federal Reserve just made revisions going back almost 25 years. How does Joe recommend printers steer the course? What will it take to get the print industry out of the hole? Dr. Webb has insights that can help.

Five of Six Recovery Indicators are Positive (CORRECTED)

Published April 5, 2011

February 2011 U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +4.4%, Eleven Months of Y-O-Y Increases

Published April 5, 2011

Dr. Webb looks at February's shipments, Canada's January shipments, and updated forecasts for the North American printing industry to 2017. There's an updated GDP Forecast model and commentary on why that model is not totally reliable for forecasting the print industry. Will the rest of 2011 be as positive as January and February? Dr. Joe discusses.

Commercial Printing Profits Rise Again

Published March 30, 2011

Of Pieces and Population: Preference, Likability, Frequency, Quantity and Dimension

Published March 21, 2011

“I Can’t Eat an iPad”

Published March 21, 2011

While he loves computers, when it comes to dinnertime, Dr. Joe still prefers food. Seems the Fed would prefer we think otherwise. As far as understanding inflation at its core, a good meal can go a long way if you have the money for it. He takes a new look at a dead French economist. And considers the print execs you won’t see in San Francisco mid-April.

Capital Investment Patterns Change Significantly Over Last Decade

Published March 11, 2011

January 2011 U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +4.1%, Good Start to New Year

Published March 10, 2011

Dr. Webb comments on what the forecasting models are projecting for shipments out to 2017. The podcast also includes an analysis of how the industry has changed between 2000 and 2009 based on the latest data from the Commerce Department.

The Frosting Looks Great, But the Cake is Awful

Published March 7, 2011

Reading past the headlines seems to be Dr. Joe's specialty since no one else is doing it, especially with last Friday's unemployment report. Printing shipments were up in 2010, and January was a strong month, but printing employment seems to tell a different tale. Beware of academics bearing jargon: Dr. Joe explains why “Ph.D.” sometimes, as the old joke goes, means “piled higher and deeper.”

Recovery Indicators Still Moving Sideways; 5 of 6 are Positive

Published March 3, 2011

Why No One Threw a Birthday Party for the Stimulus

Published February 21, 2011

Caution: Risks of Economic Disappointment are Rising

Published February 21, 2011

Just as the economy seems to be improving, Dr. Joe is back with his Dr. Doom persona. He thinks it's justified based on the latest inflation and wage data, and makes the case accordingly. The pace of technological change seems to be independent of the economic situation, and while Dr. Joe suggests that caution is the economic watchword, he says that the continued rapid rate of technological change should lead to urgent and direct management action in print businesses.

Media Shift Evident in Employment Data

Published February 16, 2011

Printing Employment Shrinks, Shipments per Employee Rise

Published February 9, 2011

The Employment Disappearing Act: Where Did 500,000 Jobs Go?

Published February 7, 2011

Sometimes you see a lot by looking, according to famed economist Yogi Berra. Somehow, the labor statisticians’ “whoops” factor involves over-counting the number of employed people by a mere half million. Then they say unemployment got better, except, of course, for the parts that got worse. At least there was exceptionally good news from the Institute of Supply Management reports, the best in quite a while. Dr. Joe explains what printers should assume in their planning, saying that skill really matters, and that luck will have nothing to do with it.

2010 U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Finish at $86.7 Billion, +0.9% Versus 2009

Published February 4, 2011

December 2010 commercial printing shipments were $7.48 billion, up $347 million (+4.9%) compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were up +3.3%. This brought the year's shipments to $86.7 billion.

Recovery Indicators Strengthen; December Printing Shipments Up +4.8%

Published February 3, 2011

Q4-2010 GDP Report Has Something for Optimists & Pessimists Alike, But We're Still Moving Sideways

Published January 28, 2011

Analyze Your Business Trends with Our Updated Inflation Multipliers

Published January 26, 2011

November U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +4.2%

Published January 19, 2011

November 2010 commercial printing shipments were $7.48 billion, up $303 million (+4.2%) compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were up +4.2%. “This was a very encouraging month, and continues the consecutive gain in current dollar shipments for eight months,” explained Dr. Joe Webb, director of WhatTheyThink's Economics and Research Center.

Updated Macroeconomic Indicators: Manufacturing Inflation and Declining Wages

Published January 17, 2011

We Three Things of Disorientation Are

Published January 17, 2011

Dr. Joe digs into the details of the economy now that it's three years since the recession started, and eighteen months since the recovery started. Does it really feel like a recovery? The headlines of the various economic news stories seem to be quite different than reality, so Dr. Joe explains what's happening behind the scenes as he starts his ninth year with WhatTheyThink. And they said it wouldn't last.

Dr. Joe Webb interviews Richard Romano about the iPad: What it Is, What It’s Not, and What it Means

Published January 14, 2011

Dr. Joe interviews Richard Romano to discuss the iPad report.

Ignore the Headline Unemployment 9.4%: This Was a Bad Report

Published January 7, 2011

Five of Six Recovery Indicators Now Positive; Last One Remains Stubbornly Negative

Published January 6, 2011

U.S. Commercial Printing Businesses Produce Estimated $1.1 Billion in Profits in Third Quarter 2010

Published December 14, 2010

The third quarter of 2010 continued a welcome continuation of profitability for the industry. It has had seven consecutive months of increased sales, but it's clear that the profits trend is increasing, but the long term sales trend is flat.

US Comm'l Printers Post Best Quarterly Profits Since Q3-2007

Published December 13, 2010

Dr. Joe: Print in 2020

Published December 13, 2010

Dr. Joe sits down with Cary to discuss the future of the printing industry in 2020. Reviewing technology's past and economic present there are three numbers to focus on: 30, 60 and 100.

October U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +1.4%

Published December 6, 2010

October 2010 commercial printing shipments were $7.61 billion, up $108 million (+1.4%) compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were up +0.3%.

Does Google Type “Money” in the Search Box and Click “I'm Feeling Lucky”?.... And Other Random Thoughts

Published December 1, 2010

To Prepare for 2011, Imagine It Is 1994 Again

Published November 29, 2010

Dr. Joe must have a time machine, because all he wants to talk about is 1994. He wonders why the planning process used by companies large and small always seems to miss critical market shifts and reinforce the status quo, actually constraining the ability to change. What can make the planning process more effective and our companies more adept when the marketplace takes an unexpected turn?

Updating the Macroeconomic Picture: To "L" with It

Published November 17, 2010

Sharp Decrease in Layoffs Due to Bankruptcy Reflect Industry Improvement

Published November 15, 2010

Even something that sounds bad, like the number of printing industry layoffs due to bankruptcy, can be good if they're declining. Dr. Joe explains the sharp decline in the last four quarters and why it's very good news.

Reading Past the Employment Headline: Someone's Got to Do It

Published November 8, 2010

Sometimes you actually have to read past the first paragraph to find out what's going on, and looking at the tables of statistical reports with the real data leads to conclusions that are quite different than the headlines. Dr. Joe does the statistical equivalent of going into the kitchen to see how clean it is before believing a restaurant's reviews. You may have heard that there were elections last week, and that they might have been important. Keep it all in perspective, and don't get ahead of things. There's political chaos ahead that may only increase the uncertainty.

September U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +3.4%; Six Consecutive Months of Growth Versus 2009

Published November 4, 2010

September 2010 commercial printing shipments were $7.58 billion, up $248 million (+3.4%) compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were up +2.2%. “This continues the consecutive gain in current dollar shipments for six months, a welcome change for commercial printers,” explained Dr. Joe Webb, director of WhatTheyThink's Economics and Research Center.

The Recovery is Still a Capital L; True Uncertainty is Back

Published November 3, 2010

Q3 2010 Real GDP on Quarter/Quarter and Year/Year Basis

Published November 1, 2010

Dr. Joe looks at the advance report for GDP in 2010's third quarter and explains what it means, what it doesn't, and why it might be worth ignoring.

Does Creative Employment Indicate Good News for Print Volume?

Published October 26, 2010

Capacity Utilization: (Virtually) Meaningless

Published October 25, 2010

Dr. Joe has quite the capacity to cause an argument about most anything economic, especially capacity utilization. Perhaps the state of employment in our industry is showing an unexpected shift from the big printing enclaves to new areas of growth. This unusual finding deserves some further scrutiny. Magazines get a boost from the auto industry, which was a clunker until recently. The sideways movement of the economy is obvious again, but Dr. Joe was flying high on WiFi and gives it the thumbs up.

Change in Commercial Printing Segments 1997-2008

Published October 18, 2010

Dr. Joe updates his look at the recent trends in printing industry employment and the last five months of increased sales are playing out.

Latest Macroeconomic Snapshot

Published October 16, 2010

Three Numbers, 30-60-100, Foreshadow What's Ahead

Published October 11, 2010

Dr. Joe explains what the numbers 30, 60, and 100 have to do with 2020 and our industry. Somehow, it all adds up. The unemployment report shows an “L” shaped recession, even though we are now in an extended recovery. See what 30, 60, and 100 have in store for us.

August U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +3.3%

Published October 11, 2010

August 2010 commercial printing shipments were $7.3 billion, up $235 million (+3.3%) compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were up +2.2.

Printing Shipments Up 5 Consecutive Months; Recovery Indicators Positively Mixed

Published October 6, 2010

ISM Manufacturing Index - Selected Components Since December 2007

Published October 4, 2010

Dr. Joe explains the latest Institute for Supply Management manufacturing report in terms of its key components of new orders, prices paid, employment, and imports. The manufacturing side of the economy is still growing, but it looks like it's slowing down, and inflation is starting to creep into the system.

Dr. Joe Answers Xerox' Panel Discussion Questions

Published October 2, 2010

Random Comments and Musings Before Graph Expo

Published September 29, 2010

Dr. Joe at Graph Expo

Published September 27, 2010

The educational aspects of the show floor at Graph Expo are an under-utilized opportunity that companies can use to better educate their staff. The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research certainly has taken its time in informing us when the recession ended and might soon be telling us the recovery is over. Dr. Joe explains it all, and even offers a review of Warren Werbitt's latest opus.

Rumor: Ann Mulcahy to Replace Larry Summers, Why It Should, But Won't Happen

Published September 22, 2010

Major Investment Areas Commerical Sheetfed vs. Commercial Digital Color

Published September 20, 2010

As we head into GraphExpo, what does our latest survey show that commercial sheetfed and commercial color digital printers are looking for? Dr. Joe explains it all

Review of Our Latest Macroeconomic Snapshot

Published September 19, 2010

Happy Software Freedom Day, September 18, 2010

Published September 17, 2010

U.S. Commercial Printing Businesses Produce Estimated $1.1 Billion in Profits in Second Quarter 2010

Published September 15, 2010

The second quarter of 2010 continued a welcome continuation of mild profitability for the industry. Much of the industry is still recovering from a very difficult 2009, and two quarters of profits can't really make up for that. But we're on the right track, even though there are still challenges ahead.

What? Printers are Making Capital Investments?

Published September 13, 2010

The only thing certain is confusion. If business is so bad, why does our recent survey of commercial printers show they are planning to invest? Newspapers announce plans to keep their print edition - but we learned of it in non-print media! Things are certainly confusing, and this column might raise the confusion to an even higher level of sophistication.

July U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +0.3%

Published September 7, 2010

July 2010 commercial printing shipments were $6.87 billion, up $18 million (+0.3%) compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were down -1%. This continues the consecutive gain in current dollar shipments for four months, the first time we have had a period of that extent since November 2007.

Recovery Indicators Still Positive, but Two are Worrisome; Unemployment Report is Troublesome

Published September 3, 2010

Revised Q2 GDP Implies More Slow Going Ahead

Published August 27, 2010

Ramblings, Whinings, and Admonitions

Published August 25, 2010

Questioning Common Wisdom is Important to Strategy

Published August 23, 2010

How often have we heard that print is a trusted medium, that awareness and familiarity are goals of advertising communications, or that print is key to touching prospects or customers? The new communications market is filled with opportunities for print entrepreneurs, but going against the common wisdom of industry myths is an important aspect of the entrepreneurial spirit. If you believe it's important to embrace change to be successful, then start by questioning commonly-held beliefs about the medium of print.

The Economy is Slowing... What Does that Mean for Us?

Published August 18, 2010

How magazine circulation, ad pages and mailed by piece has changed since 2000

Published August 16, 2010

How have magazines changed over the last 10 years? Dr. Joe looks at subscription circulation, ad pages, postal shipments and weight, and what they tell us about this critical segment of our industry.

Even the Fed Worries about a Continuing Downturn

Published August 10, 2010

The Unsatisfying L-Shaped Recovery Continues

Published August 9, 2010

Remember when people used to argue about a V-shaped recovery, or a U-shaped one, or even a W-shaped one? Dr. Joe kept saying the recovery was a lot earlier in the alphabet, and that letter was “L.” Recent economic data seem to be playing out exactly that way, with employment virtually the same as it was last year and GDP growth declining to levels that are indicative more of recession than recovery. Don't say you weren't warned. Yet despite all of the market pessimism, the printing industry seems to be righting itself and showing some signs of vitality.

Latest Recovery Indicators Still Moving Sideways

Published August 4, 2010

2Q Printing Shipments Better than 2009

Published August 3, 2010

Second Quarter U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +2.8%

Published August 3, 2010

June 2010 commercial printing shipments were $7.2 billion, up +2.4% compared to 2009. Adjusting for inflation, shipments were up +1.3%. “This is the first three month gain in shipments on an inflation-adjusted basis since the period of October 2006 through April 2007.

More printers interested in buying than selling books of business customer base

Published August 2, 2010

Who's buying and who's selling? The print business has been consolidating, and we're certain there is more to go, especially with the popularity of "tuck-ins." Dr. Joe explains why "tuck-ins" are not about what you should do with your shirt, but how it has slowly been creating a more efficient industry.

Dr. Joe Rambles On About the Post Office, Apple, the Economy, and Other Things

Published July 28, 2010

The Profitable Survivors

Published July 26, 2010

The printing industry may be through the worst of its restructuring efforts, but we know there is still more work to do. Dr. Joe explains how the corner may have been turned about a year ago, creating a class of surviving businesses that are claiming revenue increases. Then he puts on the green eyeshades and discusses "bonus depreciation." Of course, his take on the issue is different than what you might have heard elsewhere. (Again?)

Judging Real Performance of the Print Business

Published July 20, 2010

Change in Commerical Printing Segments 1997-2008

Published July 19, 2010

Dr. Joe discusses how commercial printing segments have changed their share of industry shipments from 1997 through 2008, and why digital printing's share might be even larger than the data indicate.

Don't Believe the Papers: Retail Sales are Better than Reported

Published July 14, 2010

Dr. Joe reviews the "recovery", USPS rate hikes and our latest & greatest tax policies

Published July 12, 2010

Months ago, Dr. Joe said we would have an L-shaped recovery, and indeed that seems to be the case. 2011 taxes are already playing into today's economy and creating unintended consequences. And then there's the Postal Service request for emergency price increases. Is it as out of touch with the marketplace as it seems, or is that just the way bureaucrats cry out for help?

Recovery Indicators Retreat

Published July 7, 2010

May U.S. Commercial Printing Shipments Up +3.6%

Published July 6, 2010

May's shipments were up compared to 2009, and April's were revised significantly upward. This is the first time since early 2008 that the industry produced two consecutive months with shipment increases. For complete details see this month's printing shipments report.

May & April Shipments UP!

Published July 5, 2010

Dr. Joe Creates a Fable About Taxes and Investment

Published July 2, 2010

Economic Data Galore in the Next Week

Published June 29, 2010

What Would Get the Economy Moving Again?

Published June 28, 2010

Dr. Joe wants to start the economy booming again, and he offers a prescription he knows no one will heed. He also explains how small business owners make hiring decisions and some of the financial factors that roll through their minds as they do so. Just what we need... medicine no one wants to take, and a lesson in finance. The July 4th weekend can't come soon enough.