Commercial Printing Prices Less Than December 2007; Paper and Ink Higher

Published February 4, 2016

Since December 2007, the CPI is up by +12.6%. How have the PPI for commercial printing, ink, and paper changed? Commercial printing prices are lower, -0.8%. This means that a commercial printing business has to increase its productivity and profitability to reward its owners and employees to make up for the loss of purchasing power they have in their paychecks.

US Commercial Printing Shipments Best Since 2008

Published February 4, 2016

US commercial printing industry shipments are up for 19 consecutive months in current dollars and 16 consecutive months compared to the corresponding month of the prior year. On an inflation-adjusted basis, the industry has had five positive quarters.

Dr. Joe's Must Reads: Demographics, Apple, and Butchers of Books

Published February 4, 2016

Various topics that caught Dr. Joe's attention the last week: Demographics, Apple, and Butchers of Books

Recovery Indicators Show Economic Slowdown Underway

Published February 4, 2016

The monthly recovery indicators were uneven again. The NASDAQ fell almost -7% in the last month, and ISM non-manufacturing new orders and imports also declined.

4Q-2015 GDP Disappoints at +0.7%; 2015 GDP +1.8%

Published February 1, 2016

Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) for the US increased by an annual rate of +0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2015. On a year-to-year basis, RGDP was up +1.8%.

Cloud Product Usage in the Printing Industry

Published January 28, 2016

The chart shows the percentage of US commercial printing establishments of all sizes and their responses to the question about the cloud-based services they use today. The question did not ask them their frequency or intensity of use, just whether or not they use it today. Some of the “non-users” may not even be aware that they are using cloud services, since some services run transparently in the background, such as backup services like Carbonite and others. Others may not be aware that they are using a VOIP phone system. Some cloud services such as Dropbox allow customers to brand their service so it looks like a company file sharing site. Generally, larger printers are using more cloud services than others, but the disparity is narrow.

Dr. Joe: Effects of Digitization, the “Haves and Have-mores” and Not the “Haves and Have-nots”

Published January 28, 2016

Two topics caught my eye this past week. The first is that digitization is now characterized as the “haves and have-mores” and not the “haves and have-nots.” The latter may be referring to Venezuela's economic problems with high inflation and shortages of goods.

Revenues Go One Way, Profits Go the Other

Published January 25, 2016

Profits are the focus of Dr. Joe this week. His data show two halves of the industry at the same size but the profits are not divided that way. It's not what you might expect.

Consolidation is Somewhat Different Than Industry Common Wisdom

Published January 21, 2016

Here are data from our survey at the end of 2015 where we asked respondents to identify the status of their companies in terms of consolidation. Generally, formal consolidations are executed by the largest print businesses, and small businesses close their respective shops and reopen a new business with new partners.

Recession Fears and Other Media Ramblings

Published January 21, 2016

Recession Fears and Other Media Ramblings: Recession Watch, Buybacks are Bad: I've Always Said It, Sniglets for the Digital Age, Courtesy of Mr. Tree, Duh! Tax Rates Make a Difference!

Dr. Joe Recommends: Finding International Economic Data

Published January 14, 2016

Need a global perspective of world economics and world events? Many of our readers do, especially those who sell equipment, supplies, software, and other products around the world.

NFIB Small Business Index Still Shows Weak Small Business

Published January 14, 2016

The latest survey of NFIB shows their index bouncing along the level of the early 2000s recession low, and down from the high prior to the December 2007 recession. Passing that level on the way up would have indicated a completed recovery of this sector but it just couldn't make it that far and break through. Using this indicator that means that small business did not emerge from the recession yet. Big business and the stock markets dominate the headlines, but small business remains the front line of the economy, and its difficulties are often hidden from view as being un-newsworthy. Its breakout above the bottom of the early 2000s recession took some time, and the recent trend in the chart looks like it's getting ready to fall below that again. It dipped below that level briefly a few months ago and climbed back out. Will it climb out again? It's worth watching.

Early Economic Confusion Puts 2016 on Uncertain Footing

Published January 11, 2016

It is times like these that make one yearn for one-armed economists. What should we believe? The crazy gyrations of the stock market? The collapse of commodity prices? Or what might be a surge in employment? No wonder Dr. Joe's lost his hair. He adds his comments to the economic stew.

What Share of Shipments is Sold by “Marketing Service Providers”?

Published January 7, 2016

For about a decade, many print businesses have marketed themselves as “marketing services providers” with varying degrees of success. Our recent survey showed less than half of print businesses market themselves in this or a similar manner.

Recovery Indicators Look More Like Recession Indicators – Are They?

Published January 6, 2016

Are the recovery indicators becoming recession indicators There's enough negative news of late to be wary about the state of the economy, and a lengthening list of geopolitical issues, for sure.

Eighteen Months of Industry Growth, Beating the Economy, Too

Published January 6, 2016

US commercial printing industry shipments are up for 18 consecutive months in current dollars compared to the corresponding month of the prior year.

Printing Profits Dive as Large Printers Have Massive Writedowns

Published December 22, 2015

The third quarter of 2015 marked a huge divergence in the performance of the industry, according to the Department of Commerce Quarterly Financial Report. Printers with more than $25 million in assets wrote down assets amounting to nearly -15% of revenues. This sent the quarterly moving total of inflation-adjusted profits before taxes to +$1.46 billion.

Happy to Be Content, But Not To Ship It

Published December 21, 2015

We took a survey of printers and they told us they were really happy. We got data about ad agency revenues and their revenues is still heading up. A big consulting firm says digital content will be bigger than ever. The post office data tells us there's less and less of their work in our mailboxes. The world is full of contradictory trends, and Dr. Joe sorts them out.

Dr. Joe Recommends: USC's Digital Future 2015 Report, New Rules of Marketing and PR Book

Published December 18, 2015

Dr. Joe Recommends: USC's Center for the Digital Future 2015 Report (PDF), e21's “Social Media Is Making Some Regulators Obsolete”, Content Marketing Institute Says “Lincoln Electric Believes Print is Relevant”, and “New Rules of Marketing and PR” Now in its Fifth Edition.

How the Business Structure of Commercial Printers Changed from 2008 to 2013

Published December 17, 2015

The recession started just before 2008 was beginning and the latest data from the County Business Patterns report shows how the business formats of the industry changed by 2013.

Commercial Printing is Closing 2015 with Historic High in Key Metric

Published December 8, 2015

Last week's unemployment report did it again, it was all wrapped up in a pretty package but it seemed empty when you looked inside. Contents must have settled during shipping. Speaking of content, employment in agencies and designers are up strongly compared to last year. The content creation business is doing well. Commercial printers are reconfiguring their businesses and produced an historic high in shipments per employee. Dr. Joe has the details.

Recovery Indicators Cause Concern

Published December 3, 2015

The recovery indicators turned in a mixed performance that warrants some caution, concern but not worry, yet. Some outside economic analysts starting to raise concerns about the economy in 2016. Citibank analysts peg the chances of recession in 2016 at 65%, the first such prognostication of a major investment firm that we have seen.

US Commercial Printing Shipments Have a Strong October, +$204 Million

Published December 3, 2015

For 17 consecutive months the US commercial printing industry has scored increased shipments compared to the same month of the prior year. In current dollars, the Commerce Department reported that shipments were $7.729 billion. That meant that October 2016's shipments were +$204 million compared to 2015, a +2.7% performance. For the year through October, shipments are +3.3% on a current dollar basis.

Mobile Plays Big Role in Black Friday

Published December 3, 2015

The rise of mobile marketing has been long expected, and it looks like Black Friday 2015 is key milestone: mobile was more than half of web site traffic for e-commerce sites. Black Friday “brick-and-mortar” traffic was disappointing, but retailers were aggressively pushing sales online because it reduces the risks of riot-like runs for bargains as stores open. Target Stores had so much online traffic for CyberMonday its servers could not handle the volume. It wasn't the first time that Target misforecast demand for online sales. Some of Black Friday shopping may have been “window shopping” for mobile ordering. IBM, which still has a big business in systems for retailers issued a free download report about what was learned on Black Friday. In that report is the chart we highlight this week. If you sell to retailers or to businesses that sell to retailers, the report is worth reading.

The Economy Stays Positive But Weak

Published November 30, 2015

The US economy was reported to be stronger in the third quarter than originally thought, but much of it was a rise in inventories. If retailers were stocking up for Black Friday, that might have been a mistake based on early reports. What's happened to the relationship of commercial printing and department stores? Dr. Joe has the history of that and also previews what's coming in this week's economic data.

Printing's Birth-Death Data Show Improving Industry Health

Published November 19, 2015

Even the usual industry dynamics are dynamic. The latest commercial printing industry birth-death data comparing 2012 to 2011 show a rising birth rate and a declining death rate. The +1608 births and -2262 deaths in 2012 were recent lows, as was the net change of only -654 establishments.

USPS EDDM Volume Decline Continues

Published November 13, 2015

What could be an important product for local retailers to make their baby steps into direct mail, keeps declining as the USPS raises prices on the Every Door Direct Mail (EDDM) service.

Dr Joe : Effective Nonprofit Marketing, Kauffman Index of Startup Activity

Published November 13, 2015

Dr Joe on: Five Things That Can Make Nonprofit Marketers More Effective, Apple Customers Are Older Than You Think, Kauffman Index of Startup Activity

Recovery Indicators Bounce Back

Published November 9, 2015

The recovery indicators had a better month than last. Five of the six indicators increased and one fell below the level of the start of the recession. New orders for manufacturing and non-manufacturing were impressive in their increases, in stark contrast to government reports about September's durable goods and factory orders.

Despite the Economic Muddle, Printing Shipments are Rising. What's Ahead?

Published November 8, 2015

The economic pundits were out in full force about the unemployment rate falling to 5%. Was it meaningful? Is this the sign of a bullish economic rebound? Then there's the 16 month rise in printing shipments. You'd think there'd be cheers from the audience that Dr. Doom is dead, and long live Dr. Boom! Instead, we hear nighttime crickets. What's behind the rise in shipments, is it real and will it last?

Can We Trust Government Data?

Published November 5, 2015

A recent academic paper published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives (Volume 29, Number 4, Fall 2015), “Household Surveys in Crisis,” illustrates the problems of government surveys that are used to make multibillion dollar and multiyear decisions of government and business.

Third Quarter US Commercial Printing Shipments Have Highest Growth Rate Since 1996

Published November 4, 2015

The US Commerce Department reported that commercial printing industry shipments are up for 16 consecutive months in current dollars compared to the same month of 2014.

Dr Joe: Fed Has Hurt Business Investment, Open Textbook Network, Economics for Real People

Published October 30, 2015

Dr Joe on Fed Has Hurt Business Investment, an "Open Textbook" initiative launching at the University of Minnesota, and a free economics textbook from Mises Institute called “Economics for Real People” by Gene Callahan.

Third Quarter GDP Not Good, but Better Under the Surface

Published October 29, 2015

The advance estimate of third quarter 2015 real GDP is +1.5%. We much prefer the year-to-year comparison, and also without the fluctuations of inventories. Those figures, also indicated in the chart, are +2.03% and +2.18% respectively. Net inventories have been running very high, but in the third quarter were $56.8 billion. This figure was cut in half from Q2, and is close to the 2010 to 2014 average.

Attracting the New Industry Workforce: Do We Know How to Do It?

Published October 26, 2015

There's a new poster that hopes to attract students to the printing workplace. Dr. Joe wonders if it can. He's got some ideas. Is getting involved in events a real business opportunity? There are so many touchpoints in the event process that there are numerous opportunities to help your clients and build your business

Recession Coming? Third Quarter GDP Looks Weaker than Experts Forecasted

Published October 22, 2015

The latest estimate (October 20) by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates that third quarter GDP will be +0.9%. That is, until the next data for their model comes in.

Economic Headlines Miss Factors that Explain Economy

Published October 19, 2015

There's no COLA for Social Security recipients this year, and that has nothing to do with the popular drink. The campaign trail leads to all kinds of abuse of economic data, so Dr. Joe adds a different perspective to things. Income isn't always income, because it's spending that really matters. Dr. Joe explains why. The winner of the Nobel Prize in economics explains the contentious political environment.

Recovery Indicators Mixed; Weak Employment Data Raise Downside Concerns

Published October 15, 2015

The Economic and Research Center Recovery Indicators had a mixed month but other economic data should raise some concerns.

Pew Internet Survey Shows Social Media Use Up, Way Up, in Last Ten Years

Published October 15, 2015

The Pew Internet Survey has released their latest survey (free download) of social media use and the long term trends are striking. The organization started tracking use in 2005 when social media use was by just 7% of the US population. Now, 65% of adults use social networking sites. Our chart shows the increases by age group.

Ninety percent of those between 18 and 29 use social media, which is not a surprise. Those social media users who are 65+ has more than tripled from 11% in 2010 to 35% in 2015. The report includes data about social media use by various demographics including income, race, gender, community, and education.

Commercial Printing Shipments in Uptrend: 15 Consecutive Months of Growth, Best Growth Rate Since 1996

Published October 14, 2015

US commercial printing industry shipments are up for 15 consecutive months compared to the same month of the prior year.

Changes in Commercial Printing Employment by State

Published October 8, 2015

The chart shows the changes in the average number of employees per establishment in the US and large printing states. The average size of printing businesses in an area offers clues to the kinds of printing produced there and the history of the industry in that area.

Profit Leaders Take It All, Again

Published October 5, 2015

The PIA Financial Ratios have been published for decades, and may be the most recognized of the association's publications. There are, of course, problems with all kinds of research gathering efforts, but the positives of the Ratios reports outweigh the negatives from a methodological standpoint.

Tax Foundation Report on the Postal Service and Other Resources

Published October 2, 2015

Debt as a Percentage of GDP

Published October 2, 2015

Many people confuse debt and deficit when they see it as part of the Federal government's annual budget. Deficit is the annual shortfall between a government's spending and its revenues. Debt is the accumulation of all of the deficits and surpluses of the prior years in that government's history.

Updated Printing Industry Capacity Utilization Data – Not What Everyone Thinks It Is

Published October 1, 2015

Even in the industry's most profitable and growing years, the mantra “there's too much capacity in the industry” was always heard. It's been a misplaced and inaccurate portrayal of the business, yet it persists.

The State of the Economy and Print

Published September 28, 2015

Dr. Joe wonders why there isn't a little spring to the industry's step with 14 months of better sales levels. It could just be that printers a feeling a sense of relief as they wonder what's next. And then there's the economy. Second quarter GDP look great, but was really less filling. He scratches the economic surface and finds some skepticism inside. If he didn't, he wouldn't be Dr. Joe.

Canada's Commercial Printing Shipments

Published September 17, 2015

Canada's commercial printing industry had a small rebound more than three years ago, before that of the US, and has been on a somewhat steady course since. In US dollars, however, Canada's gains market have been erased recently with the stronger dollar.

Advertising Agency Revenues Up +40% Since Bottom of Recession

Published September 14, 2015

Dr. Joe summarizes what he would say at Graph Expo 15 breakfast. Content creation is proving to be a big money maker for the ad agency business. Publishers are still having monetization problems which makes that whole “content is king” still questionable. Maybe it's because the real king is the marketplace of millions of content consumers.

Profits Per Employee Increase

Published September 10, 2015

The nearly $15,000 profit per employee of 2000 may not be in the cards for the US commercial printing business any time soon, but it looks like this measure is headed to its second best performance since the end of the recession. Using the latest data for the second quarter of 2015, and adding the previous three quarters to create a full year, profits per employee seem to be headed to $7,700, a thousand dollars more than the level of 2014.

Improvement in Industry Shipments, Profits Improvement Elusive

Published September 9, 2015

The 4-quarter moving total of inflation-adjusted US commercial printing shipments have been increasing, but unfortunately profits have not. Q2-2015 four-quarter shipments are up +2.3%, but profits are unfortunately down for the last four quarters -10.8%.

Dr. Joe Recommends: CMO Survey, What's Happened with China's Currency, Canada's Economy Slips into Recession

Published September 4, 2015

Dr Joe Webb comments on potpourri of news items: CMO Survey, What's Happened with China's Currency, Canada's Economy Slips into Recession

Latest Printing Shipments Reflect Rebound

Published September 3, 2015

July's inflation-adjusted US commercial printing shipments continued to outshine prior year shipment levels. This was the best July since 2008 on a current dollar basis and since 2010 on an inflation-adjusted basis. On average, monthly industry shipments have been about $200 million higher than the year before. They are also tracking closer to GDP growth rates, a feat the industry has not done for almost two decades.

Recovery Indicators Mixed with Slight Downward Bias; Sluggish Economy Remains

Published September 2, 2015

Four of the six recovery indicators fell last month, but the non-manufacturing new orders indicator remained very strong. World markets had a rocky month, and the NASDAQ fell -7% since the last indicators.

US Commercial Printing Shipments Up for 14 Consecutive Months

Published September 2, 2015

US commercial printing shipments were nearly $7.04 billion in July, a $392 million increase (+4.9%) on a current dollar basis compared to 2014. This was the strongest July since 2008.

Reports that Captured Dr. Joe's Attention

Published August 27, 2015

Recent reports that caught Dr. Joe's Attention: GE's Employment Review System Has Left to Pursue Other Interests; Our Toolbox is Empty: Maybe Hitting it With a Rock Will Work; There's Nothing to See Here in Venezuela... Please Move On..; Quantitative Zero Results

Q2 GDP Revised Up, Bigger Rebound from Q1... But What's Ahead?

Published August 27, 2015

The first report of Q2-2015 real GDP was +2.3%, and now it's been raised to +3.7%, well ahead of forecaster expectations. On a longer-term year-to-year basis, the growth rate is +2.5%, still almost a full percentage point below post-WW2 average.

Longer term rate +2.5%. The effects of inventory increases is still a major factor in the growth, but there were other positives in the report implying that Q2 was broadly better than originally thought. There are concerns among professional forecasters that the inventory buildup will result in slower growth as those stockpiles are reduced. Considering that two thirds of the third quarter is almost complete, we know that international trade is being disrupted by currency and solvency issues in China and other countries. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta GDPNow estimates that third quarter GDP will be at +1.4%. Please also note a recent chart where we showed important key indicators that have yet to surpass their recession levels from Q4-2007.

UK's Royal Post Effectiveness of Mail Reports

Published August 27, 2015

There are many resources to use that support the contention that direct mail is a highly effective medium. Some of the research indicates that personal mail makes people feel more valuable. As odd as that may seem, that's been the approach of many mail proponents.

Dr. Joe: News Corp CEO Whining or Leading, Global Economic Mess is Becoming a Quagmire

Published August 24, 2015

The News Corp CEO says that social media companies are responsible for the 'unnatural act' of redistributing content. The company that overpaid for MySpace, failed in social media, repeats the fears of copiers and VCRs from decades ago. We found out that Amazon is a great company and a horrible employer in a story perfect for cross media. Central banks play the devaluation game and say that they were manipulated into doing it. Sure, blame Kazakhstan. How can making something float cause it to sink? Dr. Joe explains it all.

Per Capita Commercial Printing Shipments Stabilize; Forecast Models Project Levels to Continue

Published August 20, 2015

The per capita value of US commercial printing shipments has stabilized at nearly $270, and the recent change in the direction of shipments in the last year or so has changed the forecasts. Forecast models place heavy weight on recent history, and that fact has changed the forecast for 2020 to remain at current levels. It was not long ago that the models forecast 2020 consumption at near zero, an unlikely outcome, but one worth pondering. Will shipments stay at these levels? That's unlikely, too, as media formats and loyalties are still changing.

Key Indicators that Have Not Improved Since the Recession and Recovery

Published August 14, 2015

There are numerous data series that explain that the economy has never recovered from the recession. These are not obscure data series, but mainstream ones. Gross Domestic Product should be the standard for determining the status of an economy (thick blue line). Movements in GDP should be confirmed by other measures. This week's chart uses the start of the recession, December 2007, as the base, which is 100.

Dr Joe: Industry Sales Per Employee Near Historical Highs, Employment in Printing and Content Creation, The Overall Economy

Published August 10, 2015

Increasing printing shipments could give him a new name of “Dr. Boom” rather than his old doomish monicker. Employment is up in advertising and public relations, yet again. Dr. Joe swirls in some comments about the overall economy and explains his role in a new management program to be unveiled at Graph Expo.

US Commercial Printing Shipments +3.5% for First Half of 2015, Exceeding Real GDP Growth

Published August 6, 2015

US commercial printing shipments are up about +3.5% for January to June compared to the same period in 2014. The industry has been restructuring, as employment continues to decline. Usually employment and shipment levels move together in a tight range if not almost in lockstep.

World Chaos? Not in the Five Recovery Indicators that Improved Since Last Month

Published August 5, 2015

Best June US Commercial Printing Shipments Since 2010, +5.3% vs. 2014

Published August 4, 2015

Q2 GDP +2.3%, Below Economist Expectations

Published July 30, 2015

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the report of 2015's second quarter GDP. At +2.3%, it was below expectations of financial forecasters who were looking for +2.6%. This advance report of GDP was in line with the GDPNow estimate of the Atlanta Federal Reserve which was at +2.4%.

Inflation Multipliers Updated

Published July 30, 2015

Inflation is supposedly tame, but if you're making comparisons of current year financial data to prior years, you still need to adjust for the years when inflation was not. The chart was created from Consumer Price Index data for each of the years specified. When looking at your company history, multiply your data for each year by the multiplier specified. This will give you an approximation for the effects of inflation on your business, and make your historical analysis, especially in the process of budgeting, to be more realistic. Adjusting your data, even in periods of claimed low inflation, creates a sense of more urgent action. Inflation means that to stay at the same level you actually need more dollars. Staying the same is actually a cut.

Dr Joe Recommends that You Meet FRED

Published July 30, 2015

In the past I have recommended a site maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank that provides easy access to economic data. The site has been expanded and the software has improved greatly.

Changes in Employment and Establishments of Top 5 States Show Effects of Printing Consolidation

Published July 27, 2015

How Have Big Metro Area Printing Establishments Fared in the Recovery?

Published July 24, 2015

Dr Joe took a look at how the number of commercial printing establishments in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, DC, and San Francisco metropolitan areas has changed since 2010.

Year-to-Year Real Retail Sales Peaked in January, and Are Weaker Since

Published July 23, 2015

June retail sales adjusted for inflation fell -0.6% compared to May. Month-to-month changes are somewhat volatile, so it's better to look at the comparisons to the prior year. The chart shows that June retail sales were +1.2% compared to last year, the worst comparison since March 2014. There are signs that the economy is slowing again. In the first quarter, real retail sales were +2.6% compared to the prior year, but this second quarter is only +1.6%. The economy always has conflicting positive and negative data, but this downturn in a key sector of the economy is likely to raise some eyebrows among economists and policymakers.

Is Small Business Slowing Down Again?

Published July 22, 2015

The NFIB Small Business Index was released this week, “The weakness was substantial across the board, showing no signs of a growth spurt in the near future,” according to Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist. “Declines in spending plans accounted for 30 percent of the Index decline, and weaker expectations for real sales and business conditions another 20 percent. The deterioration in earnings trends accounted for about a quarter of the decline.”

How Have Big Metro Area Printing Establishments Fared in the Recovery?

Published July 17, 2015

May US Commercial Printing Shipments +2.3%; 11 Months of Increases Compared to Prior Year

Published July 10, 2015

Inflation-adjusted US Commercial Printing Shipments Better than 2014

Published July 10, 2015

Commercial printing shipments have been much higher than they are in today's market, but the bounce off the lows of 2014 this year have been notable. The comparisons toward the end of 2015 will be harder to top since the industry started to show this bounceback at the end of 2014. The transformation of commercial printing businesses has been an arduous one, with volume declines of many mainstream products, but a rise in specialty applications. Those new applications are often based in digital printing, such as wide format specialties. There's also a new generation of print business managers who are not burdened by the myopia of history, where print was paramount. These executives and owners have grown up with computers and gadgets and have a better sense of print's new role in media communications

Recovery Indicators Slip to Downside; Unemployment Report Great on the Outside, Hollow in the Middle

Published July 6, 2015

Q1-2015 GDP Revised to "Less Bad" -0.2%; Q2 GDP in 2% Range

Published June 25, 2015

Interest Rates Have Rising Since the End of 2011

Published June 25, 2015

We all know how the markets seem to panic when the Fed hints that rates will be rising soon, but they already have. That is, the markets have been pushing up the inflation-adjusted 10-year US Treasury since September 2011 by 420 basis points (4.2 percentage points). The rate is now the highest since June 2010, at 2.33%. This measure can be volatile because of the inflation adjustment. We used the year-to-year inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index for that reason. There are Fed governors who believe that they have great latitude to be patient with a rise in inflation since their target of +2% annual inflation has not been met. This means that they believe they have a cushion of “banked” uncreated inflation that they can use up before they move aggressively. Whatever the case, a 25 basis point rise in short term rates is not much, as they might actually be catching up to the marketplace that has already moved and the Fed is already lagging well behind it. They miss an important point. The CPI does not measure inflation in a practical way. If wages are stagnant (though a little better lately), a “mild” 2% rise can be a burden. Median household income is still 4% lower than its peak just after the recession started. A 2% rise in inflation plus the 4% lower income is a 6% difference. That's something that's rarely mentioned in the business press.

Fed Lowers GDP Outlook, Likely to Raise Rates by the End of 2015

Published June 18, 2015

Dr. Joe Recommends: Fed and Professional Forecasts

Published June 18, 2015

The Fed's downward revisions to their GDP forecasts brings their estimates in line with an economy running in the general range of +2.25%. But sometimes we need a forecast in a hurry, and that needs credibility beyond that of yours truly.

Ad Agency Revenues Still on the Rise, Up 40% Since Start of Recovery

Published June 18, 2015

Since the start of the recovery all the way back in mid-2009, advertising agency revenues have increased by +$32 billion, +40% since that time. There are many economic indicators that have never recovered (such as full time jobs) but ad agency revenues have blown through the pre-recession high of $91 billion and is now running at the rate of $112 billion annually. The agencies have had this performance because they are immersed in the media upheaval, riding and stoking the changes in communications formats on behalf of their clients. Wages have followed this shift in media, and has been documented by us before. The average public relations pay is about $10,000 more than the averaged of all agency wages. Book publishing industry revenues have stabilized, and trends of newspaper and periodical publishing revenues are still down, but at a lesser rate.

Latest Employment Data in Printing and Content Creation Markets

Published June 11, 2015

In spite of recent strength in US commercial printing industry shipments, employment is still on a downward path. The industry seems to becoming more efficient, somewhat from better management, and somewhat from consolidation as weak establishments are aborbed or exit the market. Compared to April, however, the Bureau of Labor statistics estimates that employment increased by about 600, which is common compared for May in recent years. The April public relations employment was very strong compared to the prior year and is up +8.8%. When PR employment is excluded from ad agency employment, the number of employees in agencies is still up +2.1%. The employment data have always reflected the changes in the media market as well as the strength in the economy. Though the economy is slow, advertising agencies have reinvented themselves and are very active in social media and digital media production.

Dr. Joe Recommends: The 2015 Magazine Media Factbook

Published June 11, 2015

I've used the Magazine Publishers Association Factbook for almost 30 years. Now it's the Magazine Media Factbook. It is packed with sunny data about magazine readership that are almost all positive about magazines. It's worth getting, and is a free download.

Revised Commerce Department Data Sends Forecasts in Opposite Directions: Will US Printing in 2020 be $90 Billion or $27 Billion?

Published June 10, 2015

Data for the end of 2012 and the beginning of 2013 were revised to a slight rise in shipments when the original data showed a steady and significant decline. That period of mild increase was followed by a period of decline that was smaller in magnitude than originally reported.

10 of 11 Months of Increased Inflation-Adjusted US Commercial Printing Shipments

Published June 4, 2015

This chart shows how the US commercial printing shipments have been better compared to the prior year for the last 11 months of reporting by the Commerce Department. What's it mean? We're still averaging $400 million per month less than a similar period in 2010-2011, and we're well below the levels of ten years ago by about -$2.8 billion per month. The recent stability may be the result of several factors. First, weak companies are gone as a result of closures and consoPrinting Shipments Rising, Best April Since 2010lidations, leaving companies that know what modern print users need. Second, there has been a generational change in management to owners and executives who are more comfortable with digital technology because they have always used it, growing up with cell phones, video games, and computers everywhere. Third, the big targets for displacement by digital media have been pulverized, and what remains are specialties and applications more appropriate to a multichannel integrated media marketplace. Fourth, there a more companies using business development techniques (tell us about your target audience and how we can make your digital initiatives more effective) rather than old sales techniques (would you like to see my equipment list?). Then again, it could be the calm before another storm. New data networks are on their way, such as 5G, where two hour movies can be downloaded in six seconds rather than six minutes. Print has a good story to tell, but please, don't make it an old story. Print needs to be fresh and new. The market may be stable now, so use this time well to get ready for the market ahead.

Recovery Indicators Have a Good Month

Published June 3, 2015

Is Q1's Negative GDP Something to Worry About? Probably Not... But on the Other Hand...

Published June 2, 2015

US Commercial Printing Shipments Up for Eleventh Month

Published June 2, 2015

Commerce Department Revises US Commercial Printing Shipments Data: Revises Shipments Higher for 2013 and 2014

Published June 2, 2015

Every May, the US Department of Commerce issues “benchmark” revisions to the manufacturing shipments data it reports. Every month, the shipments report is used by economists and analysts at Government agencies, such as the Treasury Department, but also by banks, businesses, and others, to identify strong and weak areas of the economy, and to forecast future economic conditions. The reports are based on a combination of actual and estimated data from economic models.

A Look at the 23 Million US "Microbusinesses," Increasing 3x the Rate of Population Growth

Published May 28, 2015

Microbusinesses Increasing as a Percentage of the Workforce

Published May 28, 2015

The Commerce Department released its “Nonemployer Statistics” data for 2013, showing that these businesses increased to 23 million since 2012, and by 30%, three times the rate of population growth, since 2002. Let's call them “microbusinesses.” They are now more than one in seven of the workforce.

Dr. Joe Recommends: Mary Meeker's Annual Internet Presentation

Published May 28, 2015

This year Mary Meeker presented her always interesting annual review at the Code conference, a “who's who” and “who matters (today)” in California.

Revised Annual US Commercial Printing Shipments Show Stability in Recent Years

Published May 21, 2015

Last week, the US Department of Commerce released its annual revisions to manufacturing shipments. Printing shipments estimates were increased a total of approximately $10 billion combined for 2013 and 2014. The data softened the decline in 2013 shipments by a considerable margin and also reaffirmed the recent rise in printing shipments over the last ten months. While shipments in 2014 were still below 2013 on an inflation-adjusted basis, the pattern of the last few years shows a decline in shipments that is more muted than the Commerce Department originally reported. Our advice is the same: this is breathing room that can be used for restructuring of print businesses with forward-looking strategies that can take advantage of the next waves of communications technologies, while implementing sales and marketing processes that are appropriate for the times ahead.

Japanese Translation of “This Point Forward” by Dr. Joe Webb and Richard Romano is Now Available from JAGAT

Published May 20, 2015

NAICS 323 US Commercial Printing Establishments

Published May 14, 2015

These data about US commercial printing establishments are from the newly released 2013 County Business Patterns published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. At the turn of this century, there were nearly 38,000 establishments engaged in commercial printing and services; in 2013 there were nearly 27,000. These data do not include inplant printing departments or packaging, but do include label printers and trade services. An establishment is a separate location in a practical definition, and a firm can own more than one establishment. The number of establishments is in response to the size, scope, and nature of overall print demand, but there are other factors.

Latest Analysis of Employment and Retail Sales Data

Published May 14, 2015

Dr Joe. digs into the last 2015 GDP trends, last Friday's overall unemployment report, and US commercial printing employment.

First Quarter US Commercial Printing Shipments Up +3.5% Versus 2014

Published May 8, 2015

The last ten months of US commercial printing shipments have increased +3% compared to the same months of the prior years. For the first calendar quarter, shipments are up +3.5% compared to the same quarter of 2014. There has not been this kind of growth for about ten years. Please note, however, that the Commerce Department is revising at least three years of historical data next week; it's not possible to determine how the data will change. Assuming the pattern of these data remain the same, it's not a long term bottoming of the shipment level that will turn upward again. The march of digital technologies that offer alternatives to print will continue (read what 5G networks will bring in 2020, for example). It's more likely a pause that should be used to reposition well-running print businesses for the future, consider investing in capabilities and businesses that will take advantage of the new communications innovations ahead, and develop alliances with others whose talents will be needed to do so. This might be 2005-2007 playing out again for us. If your business is growing, don't rest on your laurels. Appreciate the flexibility your business has to prepare for the future and use the time wisely. Never hunker down and wait for things to play out.

How much would an iPhone have cost in 1991?

Published May 8, 2015

Based on the computer technologies of the time, an iPhone in 1991 would have cost $3.5 million. The memory alone is a cost marvel. In 1991, 1GB of flash memory was $45,000. Today, it's 55 cents. An iPhone with 32GB has more than $1.4 million of 1991 memory in it.

March Commercial Printing Shipments +4.8%; Ten Months of +3% Growth

Published May 6, 2015

Recovery Indicators Mainly Flat, but Small Business Might be Having Problems

Published May 5, 2015

Q1-2015 GDP Disappoints at +0.2%; Will We Hear the “R” Word Soon?

Published April 30, 2015

The GDP estimate of Q1-2015 growth was at +0.2% when consensus was +1.0%. The estimate will be revised at the end of each of the next two months. That consensus estimate of professional economists has been revised down regularly since the beginning of the year, with many of the original estimates at +3% or higher.