WhatTheyThink

Premium Commentary & Analysis

An Economic Update You Won't See in the Press

Economic conditions are being twisted and distorted by the long-held biases of the business press. The charged political climate of an election year fans passions that magnify momentary small and nearly meaningless changes in economic data into cataclysms or triumphs. You have to step back to see what's really happening, or not happening. Small businesses can't choose economic conditions, but they can choose their means of navigation.

Monday, June 11, 2012

Unemployment data released on June 1 sent pundits into a panic: the economy is slowing, and they were shocked. Looked at through a political prism, the rose-colored glasses economists and analysts wondered what happened to the recovery that was underway. Yet in that very report where the unemployment rate went from 8.1% to 8.2% were positive changes.

I have long written about the bias against small business in economic reporting. The emphasis on payroll jobs in the business press, rather than the small business economy of freelancers, proprietors, partnerships, and other forms of small business, has been unfortunate. Little is written about various laws and regulations and their effects on depressing payroll employment while at the same time increasing in the incentive for non-payroll employment. It's like they're saying that only work in big companies matters, and small businesses don't matter. While it's said that “small businesses are the backbone of our economy,” it's better said that the reliance on and frequency of transactions between businesses of all sizes is the economy's backbone. Big business relies on small business just as much as the opposite. Small business is flexible, provides access to specialized knowledge and skills, and provides economic buffers to the risks and changes that larger businesses seek to manage or avoid. Small business provides the largest percentage of employment, but it also is the biggest variant in the economy's increases and decreases in employment as the economy ebbs and flows. Changes in employment in large companies are nothing compared to the radical swings that small business employment displays. It may not be the backbone of the economy as is often said, but it is an essential barometer of economic well-being and direction. Yet it's ignored by even the business press.

The calculation of the unemployment rate comes from a different series of data than the payroll jobs report; it comes from the household survey and includes non-payroll employment. So it’s kind of an apples to oranges comparison. While the press was focusing on the small rise in payroll employment of +69,000, the increase in the household survey was a whopping +442,000. The unemployment rate went up because the labor force increased by +642,000. Increases in the labor force are often signs that the economy might be improving. Sure, this increase could be temporary, but the unemployment rate did not go up because more people lost their jobs; it went up because more people believed that work was worthwhile seeking.


Continue reading your article
with a WhatTheyThink membership.

WhatTheyThink Annual Membership

Less than $4/week.

Get unlimited access to in-depth commentary and analysis covering the latest trends, emerging technologies, operational strategies, and key events across every segment of today's printing industry.

Stay informed. Stay competitive. Stay ahead.
WhatTheyThink Day Pass

$5 for 24 hours

Unlimited access to all of WhatTheyThink. Get your Day Pass

Already a member?
Sign In

About Dr. Joe Webb

Dr. Joe Webb is one of the graphic arts industry's best-known consultants, forecasters, and commentators. He is the director of WhatTheyThink's Economics and Research Center.

Recent Articles from Dr. Joe Webb

Big Printers' Writedowns and Interest Payments Are a Big Drag on Printing Industry Profits

Big Printers' Writedowns and Interest Payments Are a Big Drag on Printing Industry Profits

Writedowns in the first quarter of 2018 for commercial printers with $25 million or more in assets were $157 million, or 1.9% of sales. The assets may be written down, but the borrowing that was created to finance them remains. Interest expense was 4.8% of sales. For the quarter, losses were -1.47% of sales. That rate of loss made average profits before taxes for the industry a mediocre 3% of sales—which means that printers with less than $25 million in assets must have done well. Read More

The Final Column: The Security Guard Will Take Your Badge and Escort You to the Lobby

Back in 2002, Dr. Joe agreed to do a regular column for WhatTheyThink for “only one year and no more”...for 15 years. This farewell column explains how it started, behind-the-scenes intrigue, the problems, and why it turned out the way it did. And then…he explains the exciting adventures ahead. Read More

Full-Time Employment, Sets New Record, Up +904,000, But Does It Really Feel that Good?

Full-Time Employment, Sets New Record, Up +904,000, But Does It Really Feel that Good?

The May employment report was regarded as good, but when you dig past the top-level numbers, it was better than it looked. However, while the 3.8% unemployment rate looks good on the surface, it really can’t be compared to when it was last attained nearly 20 years ago. So many workers left the workforce that this figure implies a tighter labor than it really is. We will really know we have a strong economy when the active labor force starts increasing. Read More

Good News Could Be a Full-Time Job, but for Most Economists It’s Only Part-Time

Some people say that the news is always bad, and they wish someone would report good news now and then. There is good news but no one seems to report it. You’d think that would be a full time job for someone. The economy has set a record for full time employment, and all we hear are crickets. The economy has been doing better lately in some key measures of employment, but the Fed is scaring markets by preparing to raise rates. TINA, meet TAMA, the result of the Fed’s actions; don’t worry, we’ll explain it. The statisticians at the Commerce Department revised printing shipments data. Revising data seems to be a full time job in the Beltway. Dr. Joe clarifies it all for one nearly last time. Read More

Consumer Durable Goods Orders Moving at Almost 2X GDP Rate

Consumer Durable Goods Orders Moving at Almost 2X GDP Rate

Durable goods orders for consumers (less transportation) are growing at a rate almost two times faster than Real GDP. This data series remains -14% below where it was at the start of the recession in December 2017, and is a critical one to monitor for indications of an improved economy. Read More