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The Unsatisfying L-Shaped Recovery Continues

Remember when people used to argue about a V-shaped recovery, or a U-shaped one, or even a W-shaped one? Dr. Joe kept saying the recovery was a lot earlier in the alphabet, and that letter was “L.” Recent economic data seem to be playing out exactly that way, with employment virtually the same as it was last year and GDP growth declining to levels that are indicative more of recession than recovery. Don't say you weren't warned. Yet despite all of the market pessimism, the printing industry seems to be righting itself and showing some signs of vitality.

Monday, August 09, 2010

Join us on September 15th for the next Economic Outlook Webinar. During this one-hour event, we will provide a first look at what the industry and the economy at large might expect in 2011 as well as share WhatTheyThink's latest print business conditions survey. Advance questions for the webinar Q&A session can be submitted here.

Friday's unemployment report had surprises for everyone, but the one that was most startling was the fact that June's employment was revised down to -221,000 and was not the -125,000 as originally reported. The unemployment rate remained at 9.5%, but that was only because -181,000 people left the workforce. The broadest measure of unemployment is still at 16.5%.

What's stranger is this: July 2010 employment is virtually the same as it was in July 2009. It's down -0.04%. which is virtually zero as far as Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates are concerned.


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About Dr. Joe Webb

Dr. Joe Webb is one of the graphic arts industry's best-known consultants, forecasters, and commentators. He is the director of WhatTheyThink's Economics and Research Center.

Recent Articles from Dr. Joe Webb

Big Printers' Writedowns and Interest Payments Are a Big Drag on Printing Industry Profits

Big Printers' Writedowns and Interest Payments Are a Big Drag on Printing Industry Profits

Writedowns in the first quarter of 2018 for commercial printers with $25 million or more in assets were $157 million, or 1.9% of sales. The assets may be written down, but the borrowing that was created to finance them remains. Interest expense was 4.8% of sales. For the quarter, losses were -1.47% of sales. That rate of loss made average profits before taxes for the industry a mediocre 3% of sales—which means that printers with less than $25 million in assets must have done well. Read More

The Final Column: The Security Guard Will Take Your Badge and Escort You to the Lobby

Back in 2002, Dr. Joe agreed to do a regular column for WhatTheyThink for “only one year and no more”...for 15 years. This farewell column explains how it started, behind-the-scenes intrigue, the problems, and why it turned out the way it did. And then…he explains the exciting adventures ahead. Read More

Full-Time Employment, Sets New Record, Up +904,000, But Does It Really Feel that Good?

Full-Time Employment, Sets New Record, Up +904,000, But Does It Really Feel that Good?

The May employment report was regarded as good, but when you dig past the top-level numbers, it was better than it looked. However, while the 3.8% unemployment rate looks good on the surface, it really can’t be compared to when it was last attained nearly 20 years ago. So many workers left the workforce that this figure implies a tighter labor than it really is. We will really know we have a strong economy when the active labor force starts increasing. Read More

Good News Could Be a Full-Time Job, but for Most Economists It’s Only Part-Time

Some people say that the news is always bad, and they wish someone would report good news now and then. There is good news but no one seems to report it. You’d think that would be a full time job for someone. The economy has set a record for full time employment, and all we hear are crickets. The economy has been doing better lately in some key measures of employment, but the Fed is scaring markets by preparing to raise rates. TINA, meet TAMA, the result of the Fed’s actions; don’t worry, we’ll explain it. The statisticians at the Commerce Department revised printing shipments data. Revising data seems to be a full time job in the Beltway. Dr. Joe clarifies it all for one nearly last time. Read More

Consumer Durable Goods Orders Moving at Almost 2X GDP Rate

Consumer Durable Goods Orders Moving at Almost 2X GDP Rate

Durable goods orders for consumers (less transportation) are growing at a rate almost two times faster than Real GDP. This data series remains -14% below where it was at the start of the recession in December 2017, and is a critical one to monitor for indications of an improved economy. Read More