July 2007 printing shipments were up $138 million in current dollars compared to July 2006, a +1.7% increase. Shipments for the first seven months of the year are $57.8 billion, up $880 million, or +1.5%. Five of the first seven months have had positive comparisons. July, along with February, is one of the weakest months of the printing year, so this was a relatively good performance.

The inflation-adjusted data tell a different story, however. July shipments were down by -$49 million, or -0.6%. For the year to date, shipments are down by -$547 million, or -0.9%.

Yesterday, the Commerce Department issued a revision to their estimate for GDP for the second quarter, raising it from +3.4% to +4.0%. While this sounds good, the more important number to look at is the yearly change, not the change from quarter-to-quarter. Compared to the annual GDP figure of Q2-2006, Q2-2007's annual change is only +1.92%. In fact, the last time the yearly change has been over +4% was Q2-2004, less than a year after the economic rebound started.

We'll detail this discussion about GDP in the webinar on September 26. We still expect a Fed rate cut at their September 18 meeting, and expect it to be 25 basis points; we'd rather 50 basis points and then an extended vacation, but that's not the way of the Bernanke Fed.