The growth of digital marketing no longer constitutes "breaking news" for most of us, but research from several firms continues to track the fundamental changes that are occurring in the practice of marketing. A recent example is the "US Interactive Marketing Forecast, 2009 To 2014" published last month by Forrester Research. This report is based on a survey of 204 marketers conducted in March 2009.
Forrester projects that spending on interactive marketing will grow from about $25.6 billion in 2009 to nearly $55.0 billion in 2014. At $55.0 billion, interactive marketing will account for 21% of all marketing spending in 2014, up from 12% in 2009. By Forrester's definition, interactive marketing includes search marketing, online display advertising, e-mail marketing, social media, and mobile marketing.
For these interactive channels, Forrester projects the following growth rates during the forecast period (2009 - 2014):
- Social media - 34% CAGR
- Mobile marketing - 27% CAGR
- Display advertising - 17% CAGR
- Search marketing - 15% CAGR
- E-mail marketing - 11% CAGR
The Forrester survey strongly suggests that much of the growth in spending on interactive marketing will come at the expense of traditional marketing activities. Six out of ten survey respondents said they would fund increases in their interactive marketing budget by shifting money from traditional marketing budgets. The outlook is particularly bad for print-centric marketing channels. Forty percent of survey respondents said they expect to cut direct mail spending, 35% indicated they would reduce newspaper advertising, and 28% said they would decrease magazine advertising. Forrester contends that this reallocation of marketing investments among channels will occur because overall advertising/marketing budgets will not grow significantly during the forecast period.
It's fair, of course, to question the accuracy of five-year projections in a volatile area like marketing. But the Forrester report provides one more piece of evidence that we are witnessing far-reaching changes in how marketing in done.
Discussion
By Mike Limbach on Aug 03, 2009
What % of the CURRENT $25.6B do each of these represent?
Social media
Mobile marketing
Display advertising
Search marketing
E-mail marketing
By Harvey on Aug 04, 2009
All of the on-line marketing is destined to grow because it creates responses. What you never mentioned was the digitally enhanced information rich 1:1 print marketing that dollar for dollar will out produce any other media when emplyed properly. As a full-service marketing firm, we have fingers in all pies and I can attest that nothing will generate a sale faster that talking one to one with the prospect. In fact, our version of a multi-channel program is call to confirm, send a dynamic mailer and then follow up with an appointment setting program. Not for the squeemish or B2C but we have seen upwards of 80% responses. Try beating that with an email blast!
By Linda Berns on Aug 04, 2009
I wonder what the rate of response is to a personalized email followed up by a confirming call. Has that been tested? Any results?
By David Dodd on Aug 06, 2009
Mike,
Forrester's estimate of 2009 spending for the interactive marketing channels is as follows:
Search marketing - $15.4 billion
Display advertising - $7.8 billion
E-mail marketing - $1.2 billion
Social media - $0.7 billion
Mobile marketing - $0.4 billion
By David Dodd on Aug 06, 2009
Linda,
I don't know of any study that has focused on the outcome of a campaign that combined a personalized e-mail with a follow-up telephone call. However, there are many case studies and other research that shows that multi-channel campaigns are much more effective than single channel campaigns.
By Michael J on Aug 07, 2009
Back in the day, we designed a program for metlife that was a postcard plus telephone call plus a tracking book for each agent. It seemed to be pretty successful.
We delivered the following package every two weeks for 4 consecutive mailings to the same 100 suspects.
1. 100 personalized postcards for every agent in a particular agency. On the front of the card was a pretty cool illustration relating to a specific product line.
2. A tracking book that had the same 100 names with phone numbers and columns for results of the call.
The way it worked from our point of view:
We got the photos and contact info for each agent sorted by agency. We bought a standard mail list sorted by geographic area with the appropriate demographics.
Here's how it worked at the agency level:
The agent decided how many calls they could make in four hours a week. As I remember it they felt comfortable to a hundred calls. That may seem like a lot, but the script was"
I'm just calling to confirm that you got our postcard. I hope you don't mind if I send a couple more over the next four weeks. Thanks for your time."
The real secret sauce is that the manager collected all the tracking books once a week. If they didn't make their calls, the agent heard about it, that day.
At it's height we were doing about 45 agencies.
The problem at the time sometime in the late 90's was that the tech was expensive. Eventually we walked away becuase the margins were too low. I would think that has now changed and it should work and have a reasonable margin.
As I remember it, but don't quote me, I think the yield was 4 request for appts per 100 and a signed deal for every 200 to 250 calls.
By Michael J on Aug 07, 2009
@ Patrick,
I don't have hard data at hand, but consider the potential market size if MLM were optimized for clickable print that connects widely distributed print product that connect print to videos on the web using smart phone tech.
Smart phones adoption in the UK is just getting started for big growth. The mobiles are ferociously fighting for market share and little doubt that the next stage of the web is mobile marketing. Smart QR codes give the clickstreams that can be analyzed to get customer analytics.
What a printer needs to dominate this market is speed and scale. Clickable postcards in internet quantities at internet speeds.
If you're interested in this line of thinking, check out my blog. From what I'm seeing clickable print is a huge opportunity for versioned print to become an integral part of what's next.
Good luck with the new venture. If every thing breaks the right way, I think you are on to soemthing. I look forward to when you go public so I can place a bet.
By Michael J on Aug 07, 2009
Oops. I read too fast. I wanted to read digital printing facility. After posting, should have been before, I re read and saw you are producing (digital media for+indoor-outdoor-garphics)
The same argument sort of apples. It's nurturing the demand for clickable signage. Anyything else I might add is just blablabla. Sorry for any confusion.
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